Northland Power (TSE:NPI – Get Free Report) had its price target dropped by investment analysts at BMO Capital Markets from C$42.00 to C$38.00 in a report issued on Friday, BayStreet.CA reports. BMO Capital Markets’ target price indicates a potential upside of 67.33% from the stock’s current price.
A number of other brokerages have also weighed in on NPI. Royal Bank of Canada raised shares of Northland Power from a “sector perform” rating to an “outperform” rating and set a C$36.00 price target for the company in a research note on Wednesday, May 24th. CIBC reduced their price target on shares of Northland Power from C$37.00 to C$36.00 and set an “outperform” rating for the company in a research note on Friday, July 21st. Desjardins reduced their price target on shares of Northland Power from C$39.00 to C$37.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research note on Thursday, July 20th. ATB Capital dropped their target price on shares of Northland Power from C$50.00 to C$48.00 in a report on Friday, April 21st. Finally, National Bankshares dropped their target price on shares of Northland Power from C$40.00 to C$37.00 and set an “outperform” rating on the stock in a report on Friday, June 30th. Eight research analysts have rated the stock with a buy rating, According to MarketBeat, the company has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus price target of C$41.68.
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Northland Power Trading Down 6.4 %
Northland Power Company Profile
Shares of TSE:NPI opened at C$22.71 on Friday. The company has a 50 day moving average of C$26.79 and a 200-day moving average of C$30.78. The firm has a market cap of C$5.73 billion, a P/E ratio of 8.29, a P/E/G ratio of 0.71 and a beta of 0.41. Northland Power has a twelve month low of C$21.03 and a twelve month high of C$47.13. The company has a current ratio of 1.09, a quick ratio of 1.23 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 150.94.
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Northland Power Inc, an independent power producer, develops, builds, owns, and operates clean and green power projects in North America, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. The company produces electricity from renewable resources, such as wind, solar, or hydropower, as well as clean-burning natural gas and biomass for sale under power purchase agreements and other revenue arrangements.
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https://www.defenseworld.net/2023/08/13/northland-power-tsenpi-pt-lowered-to-c38-00.html
MGL Comment - Mon 07:07, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
Northland Power, IPP:
In fact, there's an entire class of equities like Northland.
Beyond Meat.
Plugpower.
The Siemens Energy debacle has me wondering about wind.
Orsted, with its complexity, above.
Vestas, at the moment, basking in Siemens pain:
Solar vs Wind:
Solar has no moving parts, very low maintenance OPEX, and is cheap to deploy.
The wind turbine has moving parts, rising maintenance OPEX, and is expensive to deploy.
Solar power is predictable; you know it will be at maximum at midday.
Wind power is unpredictable, totally dependent on the whim of the weather.
We've noted increasingly unstable grids in recent years; if I were a grid engineer, I would look at Solar and think, "Yes, it's volatile, but at least it's predictable. With Wind, I have no clue how to plan storage."
General case: at the beginning of a technology boom, there are numerous standards, ideas and thoughts. But by the end of the crash, the market collapsed to one bar, one dominant thought path, and one method. The classic stocks for thinking about this are Microsoft and Google. Pre-2000, we had numerous operating systems and hundreds of search engines. But the tech bust collapsed all but Microsoft and Google's standards. That dominance then lasted 20+ years.
Are we in a Netzero bust?
Iot squared, a joint venture between Saudi Telecom Company and the Public Investment Fund, has signed a binding agreement to acquire 100 per cent of technology company Machinestalk, which focuses on Internet of Things, amid the kingdom's digital transformation push.
The deal will add value for iot squared through Riyadh-based Machinestalk’s field services capabilities, technology, proprietary IoT platforms, internal development capabilities, local and international partner and customer relationships, the Saudi Press Agency reported on Sunday.
The agreement "steers to an exciting new chapter in our growth story", Othman Al Dahash, chief executive of iot squared, said.
"As we continue to strengthen our position as the national IoT champion... we are eager to play a pivotal role in supporting Saudi Arabia’s ambitions to lead the region’s digital transformation and adoption of emerging technologies."
Both stc and PIF own a 50 per cent stake each in iot squared, which offers smart solutions in sectors including industrial manufacturing, logistics, transportation and smart cities.
The company aims to make Saudi a regional technology centre for the Middle East and North Africa and become a “one-stop-shop” for IoT solutions.
One of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, the PIF is at the centre of the Saudi Vision 2030 initiative to diversify the country’s economy from hydrocarbons.
Its assets under management grew 13 per cent annually to about $600 billion last year. The fund established 25 companies last year and created 181,000 jobs.
It also made international investments worth $136.5 billion, with a growing focus on growing its domestic assets.
As part of its mandate, the fund aims to localise technology and knowledge in Saudi Arabia and develop a digital economy, in line with the Vision 2030 objectives.
Saudi Arabia's IoT market is estimated to reach 10.8 billion Saudi riyals ($2.9 billion) by 2025 at an annual growth rate of 12.8 per cent, according to Massachusetts-based researcher International Data Corporation.
Machinestalk is one of the largest Saudi companies in the IoT domain, founded in 2015 as a subsidiary of NOMD Holding.
It has delivered diversified solutions focused on smart mobility, with additional capabilities in smart buildings and facilities, smart cities, and industrial IoT.
The acquisition represents "an important milestone in the collaboration between PIF and stc as this reflects the major investment strategy in the products and services in ICT industry, including investments in digital clouds, cybersecurity, FinTech and digital entertainment", SPA said.
The iot squared deal is subject to regulatory approvals and fulfilling transaction conditions.
MGL Comment - Mon 09:03, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
The deal will add value for iot squared through Riyadh-based Machinestalk’s field services capabilities, technology, proprietary IoT platforms,
Readers may recall a story we had some years ago. BP engineers were trying to digitise an oil field. They had the software, the models, and the data, but they struggled to connect the oil wells. Ultimately, an engineer drove to Walmart, bought 100 cheap mobile phones, and gaffer taped 1 to each well.
Now we have RFID and IoT becomes a reality.
Commenting on the acquisition, Othman Al-Dahash, CEO of iot squared, said: “As we continue to strengthen our position as the national IoT champion, in line with our bold strategy, we are eager to play a pivotal role in supporting Saudi Arabia’s ambitions to lead the region’s digital transformation and adoption of emerging technologies.”
Furthermore, he added that by fully realizing the potential of IoT and unlocking the value of connected things, “we are committed to enabling a ‘connected Kingdom’ and turning the knowledge-based economy from a concept into reality.”
Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:CRR.UN – Get Free Report) had its price target decreased by stock analysts at TD Securities from C$17.00 to C$16.50 in a note issued to investors on Friday, BayStreet.CA reports. The brokerage currently has a “buy” rating on the stock. TD Securities’ target price would suggest a potential upside of 21.23% from the stock’s current price.
Separately, National Bankshares decreased their price objective on Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust from C$17.00 to C$16.00 in a research report on Tuesday, July 18th.
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Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust Trading Down 1.2 %
About Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust
Shares of CRR.UN opened at C$13.61 on Friday. The business’s 50-day moving average price is C$13.91 and its 200 day moving average price is C$14.97. The stock has a market capitalization of C$1.44 billion, a P/E ratio of 194.43 and a beta of 0.85. Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust has a 1-year low of C$13.02 and a 1-year high of C$17.07. The company has a current ratio of 0.12, a quick ratio of 0.11 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 114.16.
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Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust ("Crombie") is an unincorporated, open-ended real estate investment trust established under, and governed by, the laws of the Province of Ontario. Crombie is one of the country's leading national retail property landlords with a strategy to own, operate and develop a portfolio of high quality grocery and drug store anchored shopping centres, freestanding stores and mixed use developments primarily in Canada's top urban and suburban markets.
MGL Comment - Mon 08:50, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
Crombie is one of the country's leading national retail property landlords with a strategy to own, operate and develop a portfolio of high quality grocery and drug store anchored shopping centres, freestanding stores and mixed use developments
$3.1bn EV, $2bn of debt, $320m of sales.
Inflation data, global trends and foreign fund trading activity would guide equity market movement in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said.
Stock markets would remain closed on Tuesday for Independence Day.
"Macroeconomic indicators, rupee and FII activities will be pivotal in shaping market trends in the coming days. Domestically, inflation figures hold significance. Globally, attention will be directed toward Japan's inflation data, China's IIP numbers, and the US retail sales statistics," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
On the macroeconomic front, wholesale and retail inflation numbers for July would be announced on Monday.
"India's WPI and CPI inflation data, exports and imports numbers will be in focus in the coming days. We expect the Indian market will continue to remain rangebound and will take further cues from US jobs data and minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting," Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, Master Capital Services Ltd, said.
Hindustan Copper and ITC would announce their earnings this week.
The movement of the rupee against the dollar and global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in the equity market.
India's industrial production growth declined to a three-month low of 3.7 per cent in June mainly due to poor showing by the manufacturing sector, according to official data released on Friday.
The BSE benchmark declined 398.6 points or 0.60 per cent and the NSE Nifty fell by 88.7 points or 0.45 per cent last week.
"The Indian market experienced bearishness during the last week that focused on economic data as inflation concerns dented domestic sentiments," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
MGL Comment - Mon 08:22, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
There's only one issue to watch: China.
Country Garden suspends payment on 10 onshore bonds.
$194bn of debt.
This is the official data. Evergrande alone closed its doors and ceased operations with $333bn in debt, this number dwarfs the above numbers.
Three provinces have effectively declared bankruptcy.
AQI is not encouraging.
Miners in British Columbia (B.C.) are optimistic about the future of the critical minerals sector, which encompasses 31 materials crucial for low-carbon technologies like batteries, electric vehicles, wind turbines, and solar panels. They believe that B.C. has the potential to become a significant producer of these materials while setting commendable environmental standards and engaging with First Nations communities. The Association for Mineral Exploration B.C. (AME) emphasizes the importance of provincial support to realize this vision.
To facilitate exploration, extraction, processing, and manufacturing of critical minerals with the involvement of Indigenous communities, B.C. is developing a collaborative and data-driven critical minerals strategy. The strategy aims to achieve a balance between reconciliation, conservation, and economic values in the province. The ministry responsible for energy, mines, and low carbon innovation is investing $6 million over three years in this strategy and plans to make it available by early 2024. An accompanying critical minerals atlas, which will identify B.C.’s critical mineral deposits and their locations, will be released before the strategy.
B.C. already possesses known deposits of 16 of the 31 critical minerals and is the leading copper producer in Canada. However, industry representatives like the AME are calling for increased investment in the sector. They are urging the government to allocate $50 million in the 2024 budget for the critical minerals strategy, including $4 million annually for ongoing geoscience work on critical minerals. Additionally, they seek $3 million per year for regional mine offices to expedite permits and $30 million for an independent fund to invest in exploration companies, especially those demonstrating potential with regard to environmental and social governance.
The success of the Tahltan, a First Nations community in B.C., in establishing productive relationships with explorers and miners has set a positive precedent. The Nisga’a Lisims government hopes to replicate this success and participate more actively in mining ventures in their area. However, critics argue that the pursuit of critical mineral exploration should be moderated due to potential disruptions and the uncertainty of finding and extracting valuable resources. It is imperative for B.C. to deliver on previous promises, such as updating the Mineral Tenure Act to address land access issues and resolving disputes with First Nations communities.
Despite the challenges, the mining sector in B.C. remains a significant economic driver, contributing $7.3 billion to the province’s economy in 2020. With extended support and effective governance, the critical minerals sector has the potential to play a crucial role in B.C.’s sustainable development and economic growth.
MGL Comment - Mon 07:45, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
They are urging the government to allocate $50 million in the 2024 budget for the critical minerals strategy, including $4 million annually for ongoing geoscience work on critical minerals. Additionally, they seek $3 million per year for regional mine offices to expedite permits and $30 million for an independent fund to invest in exploration companies, especially those demonstrating potential with regard to environmental and social governance.
BC Miners, ask for some subsidies, please. At the moment they receive $2m a year.
Rice prices have risen to their highest level in nearly 15 years, owing to growing fears about global supply after top exporter India reduced shipments. Adverse weather conditions in Asia may have an even greater influence on crop productivity.
The Thai Rice Exporters Association reports that the price of Thai white 5% broken rice, an Asian benchmark, has risen to $648 a ton, its highest level since October 2008.
The increase comes after India, the world’s largest rice exporter, put limitations on non-basmati white rice shipments in late July. The action was justified by the Indian government as an attempt to cool domestic rice prices, which had climbed by more than 30% since October 2022. However, the prohibition has raised fears about increased global food inflation, as rice is essential to the diets of billions of people in Asia and Africa.
The latest threat to rice supplies comes from Thailand, the world’s second-largest shipper, where officials have been encouraging farmers to switch to crops that require less water as the country prepares for drier weather as El Nino approaches. The cyclical climate pattern tends to bring less rain to Southeast Asia and other locations, causing crop damage.
Data reveal that a prior El Nino during the 2015/16 crop year lowered Thailand’s rice acreage and reduced year-over-year rice output by 16%. According to the Gro database, total rainfall in the country’s rice-growing regions is 23% lower than last year, but it is still near the 10-year normal.
Thailand exported 4.8 million metric tons of rice in the first seven months of this year, with monthly exports ranging from 700,000 to 800,000 tons, according to Charoen Laothamatas, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association. He stated that rice exports were 7.71 million tons last year.
The world market is very turbulent because of speculation in every market, affecting countries that do not have stocks in hand. Charoen Laothamatas – President, Thai Rice Exporters Association
Now a new problem has cropped up. Floods due to heavy rains have damaged corn and ride crops in China’s key northern grain-producing belt.
Farmers in China’s northern granary area are begging for assistance to offset crop damage from floods as Typhoon Khanun threatens output with further heavy rain that could bring bugs and disease.
Water levels in Heilongjiang province have been receding since Monday after Typhoon Doksuri wreaked flooding throughout northern China on Friday, but farmers in the nation’s top grain-producing region are trying to save the most devastated crops.
As the saying goes, “When it rains, it pours”. All of this could have serious implications for the food security of many, mainly the poor, across Asia and Africa.
https://gangespost.com/thoughts/world-rice-prices-at-15-year-highs/2023/08/13/
MGL Comment - Mon 06:54, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
This is inflationary for Asia.
(August 13, 2023 / JNS)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday night slammed the emerging U.S.-Iran deal for the release of five U.S. prisoners in exchange for Washington unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets.
“Israel’s position is known: Arrangements that do not dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure do not stop its nuclear program and only provide it with funds that go to terrorist elements sponsored by Iran,” said Netanyahu.
After the deal was announced on Thursday, Tehran transferred the American detainees to house arrest and Washington moved to unfreeze $6 billion-plus in sanctioned Iranian funds held in South Korea.
Seoul owed the sum to the Islamic Republic for oil purchased before the Trump administration re-imposed penalties on such transactions following its withdrawal in 2018 from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal.
On Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran had also started slowing the pace of its uranium enrichment and diluted a small amount of its stockpile. The report was denied by the Iranians.
While details of the emerging agreement remain unknown, U.S. and Iranian officials expect it to be completed by the end of September.
In June, The New York Times reported the broad outlines of the indirect negotiations, some of which reportedly took place in the Gulf state of Oman.
The overall agreement would limit Iran’s uranium enrichment to its current production level of 60%. Iran would also put a stop to attacks against American contractors in Syria and Iraq by the regime’s terrorist proxies.
Additionally, Iran would increase its cooperation with international nuclear inspectors and halt ballistic-missile sales to Russia.
In exchange, the United States would agree not to ratchet up economic sanctions, to stop confiscating Iranian oil and not to seek punitive resolutions against Iran at the United Nations or at the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Both Washington and Tehran have denied working to revive the broader pact abandoned by former U.S. president Donald Trump in 2018.
Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen recently told JNS: “We think that there is no value in agreements with Iran. Its desire to obtain nuclear weapons is intended to [allow it to] continue [to increase] regional instability, to continue to violate human rights. We made it clear, unlike the previous government: We will not accept any agreement.”
https://www.jns.org/israel-news/iran-nuclear-deal/23/8/13/310045/
MGL Comment - Mon 06:14, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-slows-buildup-of-near-weapons-grade-enriched-uranium-492df473
Here's the WSJ article.
“Israel’s position is known: Arrangements that do not dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure do not stop its nuclear program and only provide it with funds that go to terrorist elements sponsored by Iran,” said Netanyahu.
Netanyahu, like Trump, spent some years in the political wilderness fighting off allegations of corruption, which have ended up in the courts.
Trump is waxing strongly in the polls, most independent American voters are deeply troubled by the succession of court cases against him. To be clear, Trump is attracting 'martyr' sympathy votes.
Far-right Javier Milei wins most votes in Argentina’s primary election
Populist candidate’s win is a stinging rebuke of the political establishment in a nation battered by economic woes.
A far-right populist candidate has rocked Argentina’s political establishment, emerging as the biggest vote-getter in a primary election to choose nominees for presidential elections in October.
With some 90 percent of ballots counted on Sunday, the far-right libertarian economist Javier Milei had 30.5 percent of the vote, according to unofficial results, a share far higher than predicted.
The main conservative opposition bloc was behind on 28 percent and the ruling Peronist coalition came in third place on 27 percent.
The result is a stinging rebuke to the centre-left Peronist coalition and the main Together for Change conservative opposition bloc, with inflation at 116 percent and a cost-of-living crisis leaving four in 10 people in poverty.
“We are the true opposition,” Milei said in a bullish speech after the results. “A different Argentina is impossible with the same old things that have always failed.”
Voting in the primaries is obligatory for most adults and each person gets one vote, making it in effect a dress rehearsal for the October 22 general election and giving a clear indication of who is the favourite to win the presidency.
Discontent is widespread in Argentina, with the economic crisis leaving many Argentines disillusioned with the main political parties and opening the door for Milei, who attracted support by calling for the country to replace the peso with the United States dollar.
The 52-year-old politician is an admirer of former US President Donald Trump and has said that Argentina’s Central Bank should be abolished. He has also said climate change is a lie, characterised sex education as a ploy to destroy the family and said he would make it easier to own handguns.
MGL Comment - Mon 10:12, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
The 52-year-old politician is an admirer of former US President Donald Trump and has said that Argentina’s Central Bank should be abolished. He has also said climate change is a lie, characterised sex education as a ploy to destroy the family and said he would make it easier to own handguns.
As I said, Netzero Bust.
Oil demand globally set to grow by 2024, OPEC says
NAIROBI, Kenya - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecasts robust oil demand in 2024 as the outlook for world economic growth slightly improves.
The OPEC said it expects world oil demand to rise by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, compared with growth of 2.44 million bpd in 2023. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.
The majority of the oil producer groups are positive as global oil prices have reached the highest since January. Tight supply has given impetus to the rally and OPEC’s monthly report also showed Saudi Arabia delivered on a voluntary output cut in July.
“In 2024, solid global economic growth amid continued improvements in China is expected to boost the consumption of oil,” OPEC said in the report.
“Prospects for healthy oil fundamentals in the second half of the year, along with the pre-emptive, proactive, and precautious approach of OPEC and non-OPEC producing countries to assess market conditions and take necessary measures at any time and as needed, will ensure the stability of the global oil market.”
OPEC and its allies, together known as OPEC+, began limiting supplies in late 2022 to bolster the market and in June extended supply curbs into 2024. Tighter supply has underpinned a rally in oil prices, with Brent crude trading above $88 a barrel on Thursday, its highest since January.
MGL Comment - Mon 08:44, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
robust oil demand
Hasn't the story changed? All of last year, we were bombarded with weak GNP=weak Oil.
Tighter supply
Saudi, Kuwait, and UAE now hold around 9mbpd of spare supply, squeezing hard.
The demand for crude oil and natural gas worldwide has put significant upward pressure on prices, despite the increase in production. The United States is now on track to surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia as the leading producer of crude oil.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude oil production is expected to reach over 12.9 million barrels per day by late 2023, with estimates exceeding 13 million barrels per day by early 2024. This marks a significant increase from previous forecasts, with the EIA now projecting an average production of 12.8 million barrels per day in 2023.
The EIA predicts that global demand for petroleum products will continue to rise, which has contributed to the increasing price of Brent crude oil. In recent months, the price of Brent crude oil has consistently risen, reaching over $86 per barrel on August 4th. The EIA anticipates that the price will continue to increase, potentially reaching $90 per barrel by late 2023.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price, which typically follows the Brent price, has hovered around $3 to $5 per barrel less than Brent. On Wednesday, WTI closed at $84 per barrel.
The EIA also adjusted its previous forecasts for U.S. regular gasoline prices, now expecting an average of $3.63 per gallon for the rest of 2023, higher than their previous estimate of $3.27 per gallon.
Despite reductions in production by Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter globally, the EIA predicts a 1.4 million barrels per day increase in global liquid fuels production in 2023. This growth will primarily come from non-OPEC countries such as the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Norway, offsetting drops in OPEC production.
Additionally, electricity consumption in the United States is expected to reach near-record levels this year. The primary fuel used for electricity generation is natural gas, which has been supported by the increased associated natural gas production in the Permian Basin.
Overall, the global demand for oil and gas, along with the increase in production from various countries, continues to impact prices, driving them upwards.
https://www.energyportal.eu/news/oil-gas-production-tries-to-keep-up-with-demand/154724/
MGL Comment - Mon 07:30, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
The United States is now on track to surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia as the leading producer of crude oil.
Shale is ubiquitous, and not just a US piece of exceptionalism.
One dominant gas shale is the Marcellus, with a resource that matches Qatar.One dominant Oil shale is the Permian, USGS estimates 50bn barrels from just two of the known Oil shales.
There are 11 known Oil shales in the Permian, and we're exploiting 2.
USGS: 50bn boe (from 2)
Saudi: 250bn, and running up the down escalator.
Saudi Oil Reserves: A Riddle, Wrapped in a Mystery, Inside an Enigma
Saudi Arabia has long reigned as the most important holder of oil reserves in the world but new data from a leading oil consultancy estimates volumes are sharply lower than official government projections, placing the kingdom below the United States and Russia.
New shale technique, fishbone wells:
57% improvement in well performance.
Canadian gas attracts my attention:
While Canada has never exported LNG, the International Gas Union, and association of industry players, chose Vancouver -- the largest city in the west coast Canadian province of British Columbia -- to host the LNG2023 conference in July because of Canada's potential to become a major producer.
The conference was buzzing with energy as companies from Asia and the West held engaging talks at their respective booths. Members of Indigenous tribes attended the conference wearing traditional clothing.
"Canada's LNG can be the answer to the question of gas," after the war in Ukraine, said Timothy Egan, president of the Canadian Gas Association.
There were plans floated about a decade ago to build dozens of LNG plants in western Canada, but most never materialized. The energy project LNG Canada, led by Shell, is the only one that reached a final investment decision.
LNG Canada facilities are due to start operating in the mid-2020s, Shell says, and output is projected at 14 million tonnes a year for the first phase. There are plans to double output around 2030. Stakeholders are studying the costs and feasibility of the project.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Asian-nations-compete-for-access-to-Canadian-LNG
ASHGABAT: Turkmenistan warned Russia on Saturday against trying to extend its influence over the Central Asia-China natural gas supply chain after Moscow said more countries could join its “gas union” with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan all pump gas to China via a pipeline crossing the three countries; the lion’s share of gas comes from Turkmenistan as the two other countries have faced strong growth in domestic gas demand.
Russia, trying to open up new Asian markets for its gas after Western sanctions, said last year it was forging a gas union with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan that would streamline shipping and exporting gas to them and to third parties.
So far, the only practical step the union has announced was a plan to reverse another gas pipeline, which connects Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to Russia, so that Russia’s Gazprom could ship gas to Uzbekistan which has started experiencing energy shortages.
Russia’s foreign ministry said this week the gas union could be expanded as other countries were interested in joining it; it did not name any.
Turkmenistan’s foreign ministry responded on Saturday by saying that although Russia’s comments were vague, Ashgabat wanted to make it clear that it has not been consulted about the potential addition of new suppliers to the Chinese pipeline.
“The Turkmen side considers such an approach incomprehensible and unacceptable, and out country views it as going against international law and
the established practice in the gas sector,” it said in a statement. Published in Dawn, August 13th, 2023
MGL Comment - Mon 07:49, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
Turkmenistan warned Russia on Saturday against trying to extend its influence over the Central Asia-China natural gas supply chain
Russia's political qudos has fallen to new lows.
Russia never used to bother with Kim's annual military parade.
Nigeria’s crude oil output slumped to a three-month low data from the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reveals.
The production data from both bodies shows Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production stands at 1.018 million bpd.
July production second lowest in 2023
This falls short of the 1.249 million bpd it produced in June and the 1.184 million bpd it produced in May.
Nigeria’s total, Nigeria produced 33.5 million barrels of crude oil per day in July which falls short of the 37.4 million barrels it produced in June and the 36.6 million barrels it produced in May.
Nigeria’s crude oil production for July represents the second lowest it has produced since the beginning of 2023 with the 29.9-million-barrel production of April being the lowest.
The drop oil output in July signifies Nigeria’s inability to generate a substantial 661,000 barrels per day within the scrutinized timeframe.
This underperformance is a direct result of the fact that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had assigned Nigeria a production quota of 1.742 million barrels per day for this specific period.
Production halt at Forcados terminal
As the industry was contending with crude oil theft, the suspension of production by Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) at Nigeria’s Forcados crude oil terminal in mid-July, due to a leak at the export terminal, dashed the hope of the country’s expected gradual production recovery.
Shell had temporarily stopped loading at the Forcados crude oil facility due to the suspected leak at the export terminal.
Nigeria has been unable to meet its OPEC target since the second half of 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic-induced cuts were announced.
The drop in production at the Forcados terminal contributed significantly to the drop in the country’s crude oil output.
In June, production at the Forcados terminal stood at 7.08 million barrels, this dropped to just over 2 million barrels in July.
Crude oil theft in the Niger Delta
Beyond the closure of production at the Forcados terminal, continuous spate of crude oil theft has contributed to Nigeria not meeting its OPEC production quota of 1.7 million bpd.
Nairametrics reported a statement from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) where the company complained of witnessing over 240 incidents of crude oil theft in one week.
Nigeria has been battling crude oil theft in the Niger Delta for decades. In July, local security company Tanita apprehended a vessel laden with crude oil on the shores of the country.
MGL Comment - Mon 07:42, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production stands at 1.018 million bpd.
July production second lowest in 2023
This falls short of the 1.249 million bpd it produced in June and the 1.184 million bpd it produced in May.
Real-world please:
Nigeria production 1.25mbpd.
The official is 1mbpd, and smugglers are 250kbpd.
We know this because a customs official arrested smugglers moving 250kbpd, and the official numbers rose. We haven't heard from Nigerian customs in a while, and I suspect they have been 'nobbled'.
Korean conglomerate Posco is taking the lead in shifting production of battery materials from mainland China to South Korea. This move is in response to the global electric vehicle (EV) supply chain being reshaped by US tax incentives, as outlined in President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (Ira). The Ira offers subsidies to EV and battery manufacturers to source components from the US and its free trade partners rather than from China.
Although Korean producers of anodes and cathodes for EV batteries, such as LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI, rely on Chinese partners for certain critical minerals, they are now working to establish domestic facilities through joint ventures with Chinese companies. This is to ensure that the materials they produce qualify as Ira-compliant. China currently controls the supply chain for many minerals needed for clean technologies, including 90% of the world’s rare earth elements.
Posco, a steel producer that has been expanding into the battery industry, is targeting the booming US EV market. The company is building a supply chain for Ira-compliant materials where nothing will be produced or sourced in China. Nickel required for the North American market will be sourced from Australia and processed in South Korean facilities. However, Posco acknowledges that Chinese companies will still play an essential role in certain areas of the supply chain.
In May, Posco’s battery materials subsidiary signed an MOU with China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt for co-production in Korea. In June, the company announced joint ventures worth $1.2 billion with China’s CNGR Advanced Material to produce materials for high-nickel cathodes on the Korean peninsula’s southeastern coast. Furthermore, Korean battery maker SK On and materials producer EcoPro have partnered with China’s GME Resources to produce batteries in South Korea.
Posco’s strategy aligns with other major players in the Korean battery industry, as they also aim to move joint ventures from China to Korea. It is uncertain what level of Chinese ownership will be permitted in joint ventures producing components for the US market, but it is unlikely that a Chinese majority-owned entity anywhere in the world will be considered compliant with the Ira.
Posco has embraced the battery industry as its primary driver for future growth, allocating a significant portion of its capital expenditure to its battery materials business in the coming years. This shift reflects the increasing importance of EVs in the global automotive industry and the desire to reduce reliance on China for critical battery materials.
MGL Comment - Mon 08:31, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
We've had three years of stories on supply chains pondering leaving China.
A good metaphor would be building a fire; we assemble kindling, wood, and logs. Then we light it, little happens for maybe 30 minutes, and the fire roars to life.
Caterpillar (CAT) came out with quarterly earnings of $5.55 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.51 per share. This compares to earnings of $3.18 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 23.06%.1 Aug 2023
In the general case, the OECD is subsidising factory capacity to compete and remove market share from China. China is not going to surrender its goods market share willingly.
Deflation in China. Deflation in the goods portion of the US CPI.
The next crisis is debt deflation.
WSJ this am:
The world’s biggest economies are offering huge subsidies in a cutthroat race to win the industries of the future. The losers: all the countries that can’t pay up.
The advanced chemistry cell battery market in India is projected to experience a substantial growth trajectory, with an anticipated Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 50 per cent from 2022's 20 GWh to approximately 220 GWh by 2030, according to a report released by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) on Sunday.
This growth is expected to be driven by a flourishing local battery manufacturing industry and a resilient local supply chain. Consequently, India aims to localise a significant segment of the entire value chain, spanning from material processing to pack assembly and integration, as highlighted in the 'Raw Materials for Battery & Component Manufacturing' report.
In collaboration with 6Wresearch, this report, which is part of the series 'Roadmap for Future Mobility 2030', underscores the pivotal role of battery technology advancements in shaping the future of electric vehicles (EVs).
Vipin Sondhi, Chairman of CII National Committee on Future Mobility and former CEO & MD of Ashok Leyland and JCB, emphasised the importance of battery technology for EV development.
"EV is determined primarily by the battery running the powertrain of the vehicle. Advancements in the battery technology space are pivotal for the development of better-performing EVs," said Vipin.
Incentivising the development of domestic mines
The report recommends incentivising the development of domestic mines, especially for minerals like cobalt, nickel, lithium, and copper, which have limited reserves, production, and refining capacity within India. It also proposes reducing customs duty on critical minerals used in battery manufacturing and encouraging the establishment of mineral processing plants for mineral extraction.
The CII report calls for a robust battery chemical processing industry on par with other stages of battery manufacturing. This could be achieved through governmental incentives, increased research and development funding, technological collaborations with advanced countries, and streamlining regulations related to the chemical industry, including licences and environmental approvals.
Notably, the government recently announced the re-bidding of production-linked incentives for 20 GWh Advanced Chemistry Cell (ACC) manufacturing, a program with a budget of Rs 18,100 crore aimed at boosting local battery cell production in India.
ACCs, known for their advanced energy storage capabilities, find applications in electric vehicles, grid stability, solar energy systems, and consumer electronics.
With India's commitment to renewable energy and the goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, energy storage is poised to play a pivotal role in the overall energy landscape. The government's approved 'National Programme on ACC Battery Storage' seeks to achieve a manufacturing capacity of 50 GigaWatt Hour (GWh) of ACC, focusing on domestic value addition and globally competitive battery manufacturing costs.
MGL Comment - Mon 08:06, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
The report recommends incentivising the development of domestic mines, especially for minerals like cobalt, nickel, lithium, and copper,
Oh, some more subsidies, Thank you kindly.
It also proposes reducing customs duty on critical minerals
Good ideas are so rare in these dailies.
In central Seoul, hundreds of thousands of activists in South Korea held a demonstration on Saturday to protest against Japan’s decision to release treated radioactive water from the tsunami-affected Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean.
This march was organized in response to a report earlier in the week by Japan’s Asahi Shimbun daily, which stated that Tokyo plans to start discharging the water into the ocean as soon as late August, based on unidentified government sources.
Choi Kyoungsook, a member of the activist group Korea Radiation Watch, which coordinated the protest, emphasized that allowing the disposal of the water could lead to the destruction of the marine ecosystem. The group’s position is against this action, as they believe the sea is a shared resource for all of humanity, not just for the Japanese government.
During the demonstration, participants held up signs with messages such as “Keep It Inland” and “Protect the Pacific Ocean!” They sang songs and listened to rally organizers.
Last month, Japan’s nuclear regulator granted permission to the plant operator, Tokyo Electric Power, to release the water into the ocean, a move that Japan and the International Atomic Energy Agency consider safe. However, neighboring countries have expressed concerns about potential contamination of food sources.
Kyoungsook reiterated the seriousness of the issue, calling on the governments of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan to view it as an environmental disaster rather than a political matter, and to work together to prevent it for the sake of future generations.
An upcoming trilateral summit at Camp David in Maryland on Aug. 18 involving United States President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is set to address regional security challenges, relations with North Korea, and other key topics in the Indo-Pacific region. The summit aims to strengthen ties with ASEAN and the Pacific Islands and promote a rules-based international order while addressing global challenges.
MGL Comment - Mon 08:08, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
hundreds of thousands of activists in South Korea held a demonstration on Saturday to protest against Japan’s decision to release treated radioactive water from the tsunami-affected Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean.
August 13, 2023 05:14 pm | Updated 05:14 pm IST - HYDERABAD
The delayed onset of monsoon, which was 26% deficient till July 15, in the State this season, has badly impacted the cultivation of major crops such as cotton and redgram, along with other pulses.
However, the extent of loss of cotton and pulses has been gained by paddy, with rains picking up from the third week of July. By July-end, the average rainfall in the State was 56% and as on August 10, it is still surplus by 30% compared to normal.
According to Agriculture officials, cultivation of Kharif (Vanakalam) crops has crossed 95.78 lakh acres as on August 9 against 83.43 lakh acres on the same day last year. Paddy has already been transplanted in 36.06 lakh acres, the second highest ever for the period (till August 9) and it is expected to be in the range of 55-60 lakh acres.
“The worry, however, is cultivation of pulses, as the sowing of three major crops – redgram, greengram and blackgram – remains the lowest ever at 5.24 lakh acres together as on August 9. By the same day last year, redgram alone was sown in 5.27 lakh acres besides two other pulses in another 0.88 lakh acres,” a senior officer explained.
With the cultivation of pulses already hit by about 30 lakh acres across the country this season, it is likely to widen the demand-supply gap and lead to price rise. Similarly, cotton sowing has been hit, not only in Telangana but across the country, as its extent covered is about 4.5 lakh acres less so far, compared to the same time last year.
Since paddy is more water consuming compared to other major crops, increase in its extent is likely to push the consumption of energy proportionately as the farmers depend on pumping water from tube/open wells and canals to some extent to meet timely wetting of the crop even if their land is under canals.
The peak load on the transmission system has crossed the 13,000 MW mark for the month of August for the first time. It has registered over 13,000 MW for the last three days and is expected to go up further due to lack of rains for over a week now.
MGL Comment - Mon 07:56, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
Cotton as a crisis indicator:
2022: tick.
2008: tick.
2000: fail.
1994: false flag.
1987: fail.
1980: tick
1972: tick.
Like any indicator, it has its moments!
In its monthly Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report on Friday, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) indicated that, “This month, USDA raised 2022/23 (Oct-Sep) China soybean imports to a new record of 100.0 million tons. Imports are expected to remain high in the last quarter of the year as the world’s top buyer sources competitively-priced soybeans from South America as well as clears the customs backlog of cargoes that have already arrived.
“Through 10 months of the current marketing year, China has already imported nearly 84.5 million tons of soybeans, with almost 30.0 million sourced from the United States. Total arrivals to date are 10 percent higher compared to the same period last year, with the United States capturing about 40 percent of that growth.”
The FAS update added that, “Shipments from the United States trailed off in April as Chinese buyers took advantage of a bumper Brazilian soybean crop and attractive prices.
“Smaller suppliers of soybeans to China have also increased their exports. The ‘soy dollar’ program in Argentina contributed to recovery in shipments in the first half of 2022/23. Canada and Russia also increased exports to China this year on higher soybean production and relatively flat crush.
“In 2023/24, China is projected to remain the world’s largest soybean buyer with imports forecast at 99.0 million tons. China is likely to continue buying larger volumes of soybeans from Brazil and potentially less from the United States. Prices of the new U.S. crop have been rising on lower supply expectations, while Brazil output prospects remain robust.”
Meanwhile, Bloomberg writer Hallie Gu reported on Friday that,
China’s farmers are facing an earlier than expected assault on their crops this year as extreme weather accelerates the spread and growth of destructive diseases and pests such as the dreaded fall armyworm.
“At risk are key crops including corn and rice, a globally important food staple that’s already seeing threats to supply elsewhere in Asia. China is the world’s biggest producer and importer of the grain that feeds billions.”
The Bloomberg article added that, “Plant pests that ravage crops are becoming more destructive and posing a bigger threat to the world’s food security due to climate change, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, a UN agency. China’s government said heavy rains and winds, including those whipped up recently by deadly Typhoon Doksuri, have helped with the migration of insects and spread of disease.”
https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2023/08/fas-2022-23-china-soybean-imports-raised-to-record-high/
MGL Comment - Mon 06:50, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
“This month, USDA raised 2022/23 (Oct-Sep) China soybean imports to a new record of 100.0 million tons. Imports are expected to remain high in the last quarter of the year as the world’s top buyer sources competitively-priced soybeans from South America as well as clears the customs backlog of cargoes that have already arrived.
Soy imports are decelerating, but not reversing.
RAIPUR: In a historic moment for the tribal region of Bastar in Chhattisgarh, the Nagarnar Steel Plant , a greenfield project by the National Mineral Development Corporation ( NMDC ), marked the initiation of its production operations with the commissioning of the blast furnace on Saturday.Amitabh Mukherjee, chairman-cum-managing director of NMDC, told reporters in Jagdalpur, the divisional headquarters of Bastar, that the blast furnace had been commissioned the previous Saturday, marking a crucial step towards the plant’s operational readiness. There are indications that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the inaugural ceremony of the 3-million-tonnes-per-annum steel plant.Named the ‘Maa Danteshwari Blast Furnace,’ with a capacity of 4506 cubic metres, it has the potential to produce an average of 9500 tons of hot metal (molten metal) daily. With an annual production capacity of 3 million tons, the plant’s future prospects for expansion and increased productivity have generated considerable excitement.The intricate design of this technological marvel was masterminded by Danieli Corus B V from the Netherlands, with construction overseen by Tata Projects Limited. Macon Limited played a pivotal advisory role in ensuring the project’s successful execution, officials said.Rafiq Ahmad, chief executive of the Nagarnar Steel Plant , noted the historical significance of the event, with Amitabh Mukherjee and other dignitaries inaugurating India’s second-largest blast furnace. The commencement of the blast furnace’s operations came after meticulous preparation, including the loading of coke fines, iron ore, and flux. The initial tapping of the furnace, expected in the next 36-40 hours, will mark a pivotal milestone as hot metal flows from the Nagarnar Steel Plant for the first time.This remarkable achievement owes its success to the collaborative efforts of various entities, including NCL (National Steel Corporation), Macon’s advisory role, and the unwavering support of key industry players such as SAIL, RINL, JSW, and Jindal Power, officials said.As the Nagarnar Steel Plant embarks on this transformative journey, it not only marks a new chapter in the industrial landscape of Bastar but also stands as a testament to the potential of innovation and collaboration in the realm of steel production.The Nagarnar Steel Plant is a 3-million-tonne-per-annum (MTPA) integrated steel plant owned by NMDC Steel Limited, a central public sector enterprise. The plant was conceived in 2009-10 with the intention of moving up the value chain and diversifying the portfolio of NMDC, which is a pure-play miner.
MGL Comment - Mon 07:47, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
With an annual production capacity of 3 million tons, the plant’s future prospects for expansion and increased productivity have generated considerable excitement.
Producing more steel may not be economic, but it is exciting!
TATA Steel CEO T V Narendran has cleared that the company is not so keen on any other new acquisitions. The remarks come in reply to questions about TATA Steel's interest in buying Vedanta Ltd's steel business. TATA Steel has been in expansion mode in India for quite some time now while Vedanta was also reviewing its steel and steel-making raw materials business.
"Not so keen on any other new acquisitions... We don't need it," T V Narendran said as per news agency PTI.
The CEO's comments put to rest all the anticipation around a possible deal with Vedanta. In June, Vedanta announced immediate commencement of a comprehensive assessment and exploration of various possibilities, encompassing the potential strategic divestment of a portion or the entirety of its steel enterprises.
T V Narendran to augment steel production capacity
T V Narendran affirmed that a lot needs to be done with the existing TATA Steel sites. The company has formulated a strategy aimed at augmenting its yearly established capacity for steel production to 40 million metric tonnes per annum (MTPA) within the Indian market by the year 2030, an increase from its existing capacity of approximately 22 MTPA.
The CEO also spoke on the operations of TATA Steel UK and said, "We are (still) engaged with the UK government to find a solution. If we can find common ground with the government (there)." He asserted that there is currently no problem with the UK operations apart from some upstream assets that are old and the reliability of some equipment
Tata Steel possesses the largest steel manufacturing facility in the United Kingdom located in Port Talbot, situated in South Wales. It sustains a workforce of approximately 8,000 employees throughout its various undertakings within the nation.
The company had pursued funding of 1.5 billion pounds from the UK government to facilitate the implementation of its initiatives for reducing carbon emissions. Nevertheless, earlier this year, the British government responded with a counterproposal that significantly fell short of the company's anticipated financial support.
(With inputs from PTI)
MGL Comment - Mon 06:47, Aug 14 2023Back to Top
The company has formulated a strategy aimed at augmenting its yearly established capacity for steel production to 40 million metric tonnes per annum (MTPA) within the Indian market by the year 2030, an increase from its existing capacity of approximately 22 MTPA.
