The IEA has slashed its 2026 global oil supply forecast, with output now expected to plunge 4.3 million barrels per day this year as the failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushes the market deeper into deficit.
The latest forecast is considerably worse than the 3.7-million-bpd decline the agency projected just last month and would leave global supply at 102.02 million bpd, its lowest forecast for 2026 yet.
Supply is now expected to fall 1.27 million bpd short of demand for the year, compared with an 860,000-bpd deficit implied by the IEA’s July forecasts.
The squeeze will be even more severe this quarter. The IEA now expects a 1.8-million-bpd deficit between July and September, a 1-million-bpd downward revision from July and the deepest quarterly oil deficit since the fourth quarter of 2021.
According to the IEA, Middle East oil flows briefly returned to pre-war levels in early July, with loadings reaching 20 million bpd, before falling to 12 million bpd later in the month. Middle East production remained 8.3 million bpd below pre-war levels in July.
The IEA cited the Hormuz shutdown, the U.S. blockade of Iranian exports, attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and reduced Kazakh CPC Blend exports among the forces keeping global supply below demand.
The supply shock is also destroying demand, with the IEA now expecting global oil consumption to contract by 1.6 million bpd this year, compared with a roughly 1-million-bpd decline forecast in July, as high prices and restricted supplies of refined fuels force consumers to cut consumption, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.
Refining is also becoming a major constraint, with global crude processing falling 5 million bpd year-over-year in July, while Russian refinery runs remained near a 20-year low of 3.9 million bpd following Ukrainian drone attacks. Russian fuel exports plunged to 1.4 million bpd, nearly half their July 2025 level.
The prolonged shortage is eating away at inventories. The IEA estimates global stocks have fallen by 410 million barrels since the Iran war began, while observed inventories dropped below 7.9 billion barrels in July for the first time since April 2025.
The agency forecasts supply could exceed demand by 4.61 million bpd in 2027, but that outlook assumes Middle East hostilities de-escalate and disrupted oil flows recover.
The latest IEA assessment adds to evidence challenging U.S. claims that Middle East oil flows have returned to normal. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Tuesday that total regional oil flows were averaging about 15 million bpd and exceeded pre-war levels on Sunday. Kpler said its vessel-tracking data could not be reconciled with those figures, while the EIA said Hormuz transits remain severely constrained.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
Russian Ambassador to Bulgaria Eleonora Mitrofanova has called for Sofia and Moscow to restore at least a normal bilateral dialogue, saying that Russia has so far had no contacts with Bulgaria’s new government led by Prime Minister Rumen Radev.
Speaking to the Russian news agency TASS about the state of relations during the government’s first 100 days, Mitrofanova said the change in Bulgaria’s rhetoric toward Russia was significant. She also pointed to several recent developments that Moscow views as positive.
“Bulgaria is acting, so to speak, quite independently” regarding the latest proposed EU sanctions against Russian Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov, Mitrofanova said.
She also highlighted changes to Bulgarian legislation governing Lukoil’s activities in the country. However, the ambassador acknowledged that Sofia’s room for maneuver remains limited by Bulgaria’s membership in NATO and the European Union.
According to Mitrofanova, Moscow does not currently expect a major breakthrough in Russian-Bulgarian relations. The immediate goal, she said, should simply be to restore regular communication between the two governments.
“It is abnormal to have an embassy, but in practice not to have any contacts with the government,” she said, adding that Moscow did not know what plans the Bulgarian government had regarding relations with Russia but hoped for positive changes.
Her comments come after another senior Russian diplomat also pointed to what Moscow sees as a shift in Sofia’s position.
Yuri Pilipson, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Second European Department, told TASS several days earlier that Bulgaria’s rhetoric toward Russia and the war in Ukraine had become more restrained since Radev’s government took office. He described the new tone as containing “rational elements.”
Pilipson said Moscow viewed statements emphasizing Bulgarian national interests as a positive signal. He cited calls for the European Union to reconsider its current approach to the war, warnings about the risks of seeking a military victory over Russia and calls for a diplomatic solution.
Despite welcoming the change in rhetoric, however, Pilipson said it was still too early to speak of a return to mutually beneficial Russian-Bulgarian cooperation.
Crude oil inventories in the United States saw a massive increase of 17.4 million barrels during the week ending August 7, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. The increase brings commercial stockpiles to 424.4 million barrels, according to government data, which are now just 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.
The EIA’s data release follows API’s figures that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories had risen by a hefty 9.072 million barrels in the period.
Crude futures sagged in early morning trade after two days of steady gains. At 9:51 a.m. in New York, Brent futures were trading at $88.52 per barrel—down $0.39 (-0.44%) on the day but up roughly $9 per barrel from this same time last week. WTI was also trading slightly down on the day, by $0.44 per barrel (-0.53%) on Wednesday morning at $82.76, up $7.50 per barrel since this time last week.
For total motor gasoline, the EIA reported that inventories fell 1.0 million barrels, after falling by 1.6 million barrels in the week prior. The most recent figures showed that average daily gasoline production decreased to 9.6 million barrels. For middle distillates, inventories decreased by 100,000 barrels with production increasing to an average of 5.3 million barrels daily. Distillate inventories are now 12% below the five-year average.
Total products supplied—a proxy for U.S. oil demand—averaged 20.7 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down 2.1% compared to the same period last year. Gasoline demand averaged 9.0 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, while the distillate four-week average supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels—up 1.9% year over year.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/EIA-Sees-Massive-Uptick-in-US-Crude-Oil-Inventories.html
Gasoline prices climbed on Wednesday, marking their highest level on record for this time of year.
The national average for regular gas stood at $4.03 per gallon, according to AAA data. That's about $0.16 higher than a month ago.
The national average "is now at its highest ever level this late in the calendar year," GasBuddy head of petroleum research Patrick De Haan noted on X, "meaning the national average has never been above $4/gal after Aug. 12 in any previous year- ever."
Gasoline prices were in their second stretch above $4 per gallon this year, after dipping periodically below that level in June and July.
So far this year, the national average for regular unleaded has spent 103 days, or 46% of its time, at or above $4 per gallon. That marks the highest count of $4-plus gas since 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The rise at the pump comes amid the latest inflation data, released Wednesday, which showed the gasoline index fell 2.9% in July from June, though it was still up 24.6% from a year earlier.
An impasse between the US and Iran over shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices volatile. Just 14 tracked vessels transited the critical oil passageway on Tuesday, according to intelligence data firm Kpler.
West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) and Brent crude (BZ=F) futures remained steady near $82 and $88 per barrel, respectively, on Wednesday, after the US enforced its blockade of the strait by firing on a Panama-flagged ship attempting to cross the Gulf of Oman.
Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea area also raised concerns about oil supply interruptions.
"Regardless, the final third of 2026 will be considerably more expensive than what we've witnessed in previous years," Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Gulf Oil, told Yahoo Finance.
Kloza noted that gasoline on the global spot markets sells for about $130 per barrel, well above the $80-$90 per barrel in the futures market.
The analyst predicted that without hurricanes this season, prices at the pump could hover between $3.60 and $3.90 gallon by this fall's midterm elections, the highest ever for that time of year.
Gas prices are displayed electronically at QT gasoline station on Aug. 6, 2026, in Greenwood Village, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) · AP Photo/David Zalubowski
BY RACHEL FRAZIN - 08/10/26 1:07 PM ET
The U.S.’s emergency oil reserve has fallen below 300 million barrels of oil for the first time since it was being filled decades ago.
New Energy Department data shows that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) contained 298.7 million barrels as of Friday.
The last time the level was below 300 million barrels was in the early 1980s.
The drop is not a surprise, as the Trump administration announced in March that it would release 172 million barrels from the reserve over the course of 120 days.
The U.S.’s war in Iran has put a crunch on global oil supplies because Iran has been able to limit oil shipping through the nearby Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint. This has resulted in higher prices for consumers at the pump.
Low levels in the federal oil reserve are generally a separate matter from private oil stocks and consumer fuel availability, though releases and purchases from the reserve can impact available supplies on the market.
The SPR was created in 1975 after oil-producing countries imposed an embargo against the U.S., triggering a supply shock.
While the reserve is authorized to hold up to 714 million barrels, its actual total has fluctuated over the years as various administrations and Congress have used the country’s spare barrels to fill supply gaps or pay for expenses.
The Biden administration also released 180 million barrels in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices spiking.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted in a post on the social platform X that SPR declines “are likely for a few more weeks before the authorized release is complete.”
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/6020738-spr-drops-below-300m-barrels/
Silver (SI=F) September futures opened at $64.87 per ounce on Wednesday, August 12, 2026, down 0.1% from Tuesday's closing price. Yet, silver continues to rise this morning, reaching $66.49 as of 7:45 a.m. ET.
Silver prices have hit a high this morning over $66 for the first time since June, ahead of the July CPI report that many expect will show inflation conditions eased in July compared to June.
Given the Fed's two mandates of stable employment and controlling inflation, a modest CPI report this morning, especially one that shows "core" CPI remains under control, will reduce the chances of a Fed rate increase in September, fueling further growth in silver prices over the short term.
Current price of silver
The opening price of silver futures on Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 0.1% lower than Tuesday's closing price. Here's how today's opening silver price has changed versus last week, month, and year:
For context, silver's year-over-year growth was 173.3% on May 14.
Silver vs. gold: Which made investors more money over the years?
Over the past 50 years, gold outperformed silver, delivering higher long-term returns. Since the 1970s, silver and gold prices have dramatically increased, but their roles in the economy and their long-term performance are very different.
Governments and investors view gold as a store of value, and central banks hold large gold reserves to protect their economies against global inflation or geopolitical crises. It's also widely used to produce jewelry.
Silver is much more abundant in supply than gold, but it also has more uses. Silver plays a significant role in manufacturing and industrial production; companies use silver to make solar panels, electronics, and medical devices. The industrial demand can affect silver's prices, causing more drastic changes.
Copper remains one of the most exciting commodities markets in 2026. Driven by robust demand and an increasingly tight supply, the US futures contract came within a hair’s breadth of its record high. At the same time, the London benchmark price held firm at the US$14,000 per tonne mark. On the Comex, copper for September delivery rose at times to over US$6.70 per pound, falling just short of the all-time high set on 5 August
The market structure on the London Metal Exchange (LME) currently provides a clear signal of physical scarcity: spot copper is trading at a significant premium of US$138 over the three-month contract – the highest level in months. At the same time, LME stocks are shrinking rapidly and have recently fallen to just over 218,000 tonnes.
This supply strain is being exacerbated by serious disruptions in the Indonesian processing chain. A boiler leak at the beginning of August brought the strategically important Gresik smelter to a standstill for an indefinite period. Although a neighbouring Freeport plant is due to resume production in September, the raw material source itself also remains a bottleneck: the gigantic Grasberg mine is still suffering the consequences of last year’s landslide and is not expected to return to full production capacity until the end of 2027.
Aluminium and industrial metals: geopolitics and production outages are driving up prices
In parallel with copper, aluminium is also seeing sharp price rises. In London, the price recently climbed to US$3,373 per tonne. This was triggered by a supply shock from Brazil: Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte refinery, one of the world’s most important sources of alumina, was forced to halve its production unexpectedly due to natural gas shortages.
An additional and far more difficult-to-quantify risk factor remains the conflict in the Middle East, as the region accounts for around one-tenth of global aluminium production. Disrupted supply chains have already pushed LME stocks there to their lowest level since the end of 1990. Should shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted in the long term, industry experts warn of a global supply shortfall of almost one million tonnes.
The picture for the other base metals is mixed: Whilst tin has shone with a spectacular 37 per cent rise over the course of 2026 and is trading at close to US$55,750, zinc and nickel have edged down slightly. Lead has remained largely stable.
Particularly noteworthy for investors is the current decoupling of mining shares from pure metal prices. Industry giants such as Freeport-McMoRan, Lundin Mining, First Quantum and Vale recorded significant falls in their share prices on the stock markets. This is occurring against the paradoxical backdrop that the price of copper has already risen by just under 18 per cent this year alone and has even gained around half its value over the past twelve months.
https://goldinvest.de/en/copper-price-on-the-rise-supply-shocks-drive-up-industrial-metals
Norsk Hydro cut output at its Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil by 50% after a natural gas disruption, pushing aluminum to a seven-week high in London.
Norwegian aluminum producer Norsk Hydro's Alunorte plant in Brazil, one of the world's largest alumina refineries, reduced output by 50% following disruptions to natural gas availability.
Bloomberg reports that disruptions to NatGas availability at Alunorte forced a 50% reduction in output and sent aluminum prices in London to a seven-week high. Hydro said production would return to full capacity once gas supplies normalize.
Aluminum rose nearly 2% in London and traded at $3,373 a metric ton. Alumina futures gained 1% in Shanghai.
NatGas is critical to Alunorte because alumina refining requires high-temperature heat and steam. The gas powers the Bayer process, which refines bauxite:
The disruption means that Alunorte cannot maintain enough steam and furnace heat to operate its production lines, forcing the refinery to reduce throughput. For context, Alunorte is the world's largest single-site alumina refinery and the largest outside China. It is located in Barcarena, Pará, and has an annual capacity of 6.3 million metric tons.
Inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses have fallen to 250,000 tons, the lowest level since November 1990. Norsk Hydro recently warned that the annual global aluminum deficit could top 900,000 tons if trade through the Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted.
Also in the industrial metals space, copper futures in London are trading above $14,000 per ton as metal inflows into the US continue ahead of President Trump's expected tariff, effectively tightening global supplies.
Surging prices for both industrial metals will only make electrification and decarbonization even more expensive.
"Copper and aluminum are important beneficiaries of electrification and decarbonization," said UniCredit SpA strategist Thomas Strobel. "While copper's investment case is driven by structural supply constraints, aluminum benefits from lightweighting, grid expansion and recycling. Together, they offer complementary exposure to some of the strongest long-term trends in the global economy."
By Zerohedge
https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/LME-Aluminum-Stockpiles-Sink-to-Lowest-Level-Since-1990.html
Norwegian group Norsk Hydro has announced it is halving production at its alumina refinery Alunorte, in Brazil. The company, which controls the site with a 62% stake, attributes the cut to supply difficulties in natural gas deliveries from its Brazilian supplier CELBA. The disruption affects a central asset in the group's upstream aluminium production chain.
Natural gas supply falls short
Hydro points to CELBA's ability to source gas at market conditions compatible with its current financial situation. The supply difficulty comes amid broader tensions across gas markets, illustrated by the rise in France's benchmark gas price and by the vigilance shown over Europe's gas storage levels ahead of winter. The Alunorte refinery is located in Barcarena, in the Brazilian state of Pará, in the north of the country. Its nominal capacity reaches 6.3 million tonnes of alumina per year, making it a central asset in the group's upstream aluminium production chain.
Alumina is the aluminium oxide obtained after processing bauxite. It serves as the industrial feedstock subsequently used in electrolysis cells to produce primary aluminium. The site's energy supply has been modified in recent years to use natural gas in the refining process, replacing heavy fuel oil. In its recent financial disclosures, Hydro had already linked part of the performance improvement in its bauxite and alumina business to this energy shift.
A gradual restart conditioned on resumed deliveries
Hydro states that Alunorte's ramp-up will only occur once gas supply is restored. "Alunorte will start gradually increasing production toward full capacity as soon as gas supply returns to normal," the group said in its statement. Hydro has not given a precise timeline for the return to full capacity. Normalization depends directly on the restoration of natural gas deliveries at the Barcarena site.
The group estimates the potential financial impact of the disruption at between $75 million and $100 million on its third-quarter accounts, equivalent to roughly €65 million to €86.7 million based on the conversion mentioned by Hydro. This range illustrates the extent of the site's dependence on CELBA's deliveries. The production cut affects a link located upstream in aluminium metallurgy, ahead of the electrolysis and casting stages.
Glencore holds 30% of the refinery
Alunorte's shareholder structure pairs Hydro, the majority owner with 62%, with commodity trader and producer Glencore, which holds 30% of the capital. The remainder is split among several minority shareholders. This configuration places the site's performance under the joint oversight of both industrial groups, amid a broader context where securing gas supply remains closely watched by industrial players, as also shown by recent strategies from US tech giants betting on dedicated gas power plants to secure their own energy needs.
https://energynews.pro/en/norsk-hydro-halves-alumina-output-at-alunorte-in-brazil
SINGAPORE (Aug 12): Aluminium prices snapped a seven-session rally on Wednesday after major producer Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) reaffirmed it would resume full-scale production at its war-damaged smelter in the first quarter of 2027.
Benchmark three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.65% at US$3,342 a metric ton by 0700 GMT. It was nonetheless up 4.7% since the rally started on Aug 3.
The most-traded aluminium contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 0.43% higher at 24,285 yuan (US$3,600.18) a tonne. Earlier in the session, it touched 24,470 yuan a tonne, its highest in nearly 10 weeks.
EGA's large Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi was damaged after Iranian strikes in March, forcing an emergency shutdown.
In its earnings call for the first half of the year, EGA said the facility would reach pre-incident hot metal production volumes in the first quarter of 2027, in line with its July announcement.
Disruption to aluminium supply from the Middle East, which accounts for 9% of the world's smelting capacity, has led to an expected supply deficit this year.
Total stocks of the light metal in LME-registered warehouses are at their lowest levels this century.
Elsewhere, copper edged up as a temporary shutdown at the major Smelting Gresik smelter in Indonesia added to the pressure on global red metal supply.
The red metal was up 0.26% on the LME and up 0.4% on the SHFE.
Copper has been supported by supply concerns and sinking inventories. Outflows to the US ahead of a potential tariff on imports of the metal have brought available stocks in LME warehouses to their lowest since January.
Among other LME metals, zinc gained 0.9%, lead dipped 0.05%, nickel ticked 0.09% higher and tin gained 0.64%.
On the SHFE, zinc gained 0.86%, lead added 0.28%, nickel dipped 0.23% and tin gained 1.4%.
By Charles Kennedy - Aug 13, 2026, 12:11 AM CDT
Rio Tinto-backed Tomago Aluminium has reached an agreement with Australia’s federal and New South Wales governments designed to secure the future of the country’s largest aluminium smelter through 2038.
Under the arrangements announced Thursday, Tomago will enter into a 10-year power purchase agreement covering electricity supplies after its existing contract expires at the end of 2028. The smelter is expected to transition to electricity sourced entirely from renewables from 2033.
Tomago, located near Newcastle in New South Wales, is the state’s largest electricity consumer and can produce as much as 590,000 metric tons of aluminium annually, representing almost 40% of Australia’s production.
The company will invest A$1.1 billion in real terms in the facility through 2038 as part of the agreement, including A$100 million allocated to decarbonisation projects.
Rio Tinto said the switch to fully renewable electricity from 2033 is expected to cut Tomago’s Scope 1 and Scope 2 operating emissions by 7.1 million metric tons annually.
Electricity costs are a critical factor for aluminium smelters because the metal’s production is highly power-intensive. Securing competitive long-term electricity supplies has therefore become central to maintaining Australian smelting capacity as the country’s power system shifts toward renewable generation.
Tomago will also continue providing demand-response services to the New South Wales electricity grid, reducing its electricity consumption during periods of system stress to help balance supply and demand.
The agreement follows a March 2026 arrangement involving Rio Tinto and the Australian and Queensland governments that provided a pathway for the Boyne aluminium smelter in Gladstone to remain competitive beyond the end of its current electricity contract.
With agreements now in place for Tomago and Boyne, Australia’s two largest aluminium smelters have pathways to longer-term, lower-carbon electricity supplies.
Tomago Aluminium is an independently operated joint venture in which Rio Tinto owns 51.55%. Gove Aluminium Finance holds 36.05%, while Norsk Hydro owns the remaining 12.4%.
The smelter directly employs around 1,000 people and approximately 200 full-time-equivalent contractors. Its existing electricity supply agreement with AGL expires in December 2028.
Posted on 12 Aug 2026
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co (Baosteel), the listed arm of the world’s top steelmaker China Baowu Steel Group, is lifting the list prices for its major flat-rolled products including hot-rolled coils (HRC) by another Yuan 50/tonne ($7.4/t) for domestic sales in September, according to the company’s latest pricing announcement issued late on August 10.
For August sales, Baosteel had also raised the list prices of its major flat steel products by Yuan 50/t, as Mysteel Global had reported.
The company's latest upward adjustments for September reflect a marginal improvement in flat steel supply-demand fundamentals, observed a Shanghai-based ferrous analyst. Domestic hot coil output continues to drop while restocking of the flat steel by fabricators and coated sheet producers has increased recently, he said.
Mysteel's latest survey shows that China's manufacturing sectors including those producing machinery, automobiles and home appliances have started restocking hot coils recently on a small-batch basis, in order to secure substrate stocks before the anticipated rises of prices in the coming peak consumption months of September-October.
On the supply side, many mills facing low profitability and stubbornly high inventories are idling their hot strip mills to reduce their losses, causing availability to tighten recently, as Mysteel Global had reported. During July 30-August 5, hot coil production among the 37 Chinese steelmakers regularly surveyed by Mysteel stood at 2.88 million tonnes, lower by 1.7% on week and 5.4% on month.
Against the easing of the supply-demand imbalance, Baosteel is also seeking to give a boost to market confidence through the price hike, the analyst observed. The East China mill is hoping to spur restocking demand as the market enters the transitional period from the summer lull to the autumn peak season for steel consumption.
Other major Chinese flat steel makers such as Angang Steel and Bengang Steel Plates are likely to follow Baosteel's adjustments when they announce their pricing policies for September, expected later this week.
However, whether the recent improvement in HRC fundamentals will last remains highly uncertain, the analyst warned, noting that the relatively small increase in its prices shows Baosteel's sense of caution.
At least in the short run, the market would likely resist any attempt at raising prices by a large margin, Mysteel Global understood. On August 7, Mysteel assessed the national spot price of HRC lower by Yuan 10/t at Yuan 3,263/t, while the day before, hot coil inventories in the 194 commercial warehouses Mysteel tracks nationwide were assessed at 4.82 million tonnes, higher by 1.3% on week and 2.9% on month, Mysteel's latest survey showed.
Source:Mysteel Global
