Struggling with an Energy Problem, Europe May Find Some Relief from Dangote
CHINEDU OKAFOR
23 March 2026 07:50 AM
As the Middle East crisis continues to rile global energy markets, Europe's aviation sector faces a new vulnerability: a potential jet fuel scarcity. With supply chains under pressure and refining capacity stretched, focus is rapidly shifting to other suppliers, including the Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest oil refinery.
Billionaire Aliko Dangote, chief executive officer of Dangote Group, gestures after signing a factory construction contract with Sinoma International Engineering Co. Ltd. [Tom Saater/Bloomberg via Getty Images]
This point is further supported by Kpler data, which indicates that the cessation of Middle Eastern shipments has constrained Europe's ability to secure fuel supplies.
The report revealed that traditional backup suppliers in Asia are redirecting shipments to meet stronger regional demand.
Currently, approximately 21% of the world's maritime jet fuel supply has been cut off due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Kpler, this could lead to a decrease of about 300,000 barrels per day imports into Europe, with North West Europe usually receiving 247,000 bpd.
“Eastern barrels are increasingly unavailable as strong Asian pricing and export restrictions in China, and potentially South Korea, divert cargoes away from Europe,” the report stated.
Supply from India, particularly from the Jamnagar refinery, would typically be helpful in such circumstances; however, buyers have been deterred by concerns about EU sanctions tied to Russian crude.
As a result, the report noted that the Atlantic Basin, particularly the US Gulf Coast and West Africa, including the Dangote refinery, is receiving more attention due to the limited supply from the East, as seen in the Punch.
Dangote Refine
“The US Atlantic Coast is largely supplied from within the US, with some flow from Canada, and hence the reaction in the US has been significantly weaker. We anticipate more exports to come in March from the USGC, helping to offset the lost cargoes from the AG,” the report read.
“The USGC will not fully offset the missing volume, but with West Africa effectively a net long region in 2024, thanks to the Dangote refinery, there is another supply point that can be tapped. Dangote exported around 89kbd of jet fuel in 2025.
This structural length means that even if a policy of first supplying the domestic Nigerian market were enacted, exports would still materialise, especially as the refinery returns from maintenance,” Kpler added.
The report further highlighted logistical difficulties in distributing fuel throughout Europe, noting that infrastructural constraints, refinery layouts, and current diesel obligations may make it difficult to increase local jet fuel production.
Iran’s missile attack on US-UK base escalates conflict as Trump signals military buildup amid global energy crisis
In Short:
– Iran launched a missile attack on a U.S.-U.K. military base, escalating the conflict.
– U.S. troops are increased, while tensions affect global oil supply and costs.
Iran escalated its ongoing conflict with a missile attack on a joint U.S.-U.K. military base in the Indian Ocean late Friday. The incident marks a significant intensification as U.S. and Israeli forces retaliated with strikes on various Iranian targets, including nuclear facilities.
Military response
The war has now entered its fourth week, with no resolution in sight. President Trump indicated a potential de-escalation of military operations while simultaneously deploying thousands more marines and warships to the area, hinting at a prolonged U.S. commitment.
Tensions remain high in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has maintained a blockade that is disrupting 20 percent of global oil supplies. Fuel prices in the U.S. have surged to nearly $4 a gallon, prompting concerns of price gouging.
Amid rising costs, a major U.S. airline has announced flight reductions, projecting an additional $11 billion in expenses if oil prices remain elevated. Trump has criticized NATO allies for not aiding in securing the strait and has urged China and Japan to increase their support.
Global impact
The geopolitical instability significantly impacts young professionals and the broader economic environment. Polls indicate a rising American concern over deploying ground troops, while experts advise that risks for diaspora communities globally are likely to heighten as the conflict unfolds.
As the situation develops, it stands as a crucial moment where military action intersects with economic vulnerabilities, potentially altering global alliances and energy reliance for years ahead.
https://tickernews.co/iran-fires-missiles-at-us-uk-base-conflict-escalates/
Russian intelligence services have reportedly passed Indian authorities information on the movements of detained Ukrainian nationals in a case Kyiv believes may be aimed at harming bilateral ties, according to Militarnyi on March 22.
The case centers on six Ukrainians and one US citizen arrested by India’s National Investigation Agency on March 13.
Indian authorities allege the group entered the restricted border state of Mizoram without permits, crossed into Myanmar, and trained anti-junta armed groups in drone warfare.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has challenged those allegations and requested a fair, transparent investigation and consular access.
The agency also called for the swift release of the detainees if no credible evidence is produced.
The diplomatic dispute has added a wider geopolitical layer to a case that began as a security investigation. Ukrainian officials indicated that Russian involvement, if confirmed, would fit into a broader effort by Moscow to sow distrust in Ukraine’s relations with partners that maintain contact with both Kyiv and New Delhi.
According to the reporting, Ukrainian officials believe Russian services may have shared data with India about the Ukrainians’ movements after they traveled in the region.
Indian law enforcement tracked the Ukrainians and the American for nearly three months before detaining them, according to DW, citing sources in India’s National Investigation Agency.
Those sources also stated that intelligence on the suspects’ movements was provided by Russia.
The arrests come as India faces heightened scrutiny over cross-border militant activity linked to Myanmar’s conflict-ridden borderlands.
The episode also comes amid wider allegations that Moscow is using intelligence channels to shape regional security dynamics beyond Ukraine.
US officials now believe Moscow has been quietly feeding Tehran intelligence on American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, broadening the conflict beyond a bilateral US-Iran confrontation.
According to the officials, Russia has shared detailed location data on US naval vessels and aircraft since fighting began, even as Moscow publicly frames the war as unprovoked aggression.
Analysts cited in the report noted that Iran’s recent strikes showed unusual precision, hitting radar and command infrastructure in ways that point to accurate external targeting support.
Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday (March 22, 2026) that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had instructed the military to accelerate the demolition of Lebanese homes in “frontline villages” to end threats to Israeli communities. The military was also told to immediately destroy all bridges over Lebanon’s Litani river which he said were used for “terrorist activity”.
Israel said rocket fire from Lebanon killed one person on Sunday (March 22, 2026) as Hezbollah said it attacked soldiers in northern Israel, the first fatality there in fire from Lebanon since the latest war erupted.
The Strait of Hormuz remains open to all shipping except vessels linked to “Iran’s enemies”, Iran’s representative to the U.N. maritime agency said on Sunday (March 22, 2026), after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to target Iranian power plants if the waterway was not “fully open” within 48 hours.
Iranian missile strikes on two southern Israeli towns injured more than 100 people on Saturday (March 21), medics said, after Israeli air defence systems failed to intercept the projectiles. Iran’s military renewed threats against the region’s infrastructure after U.S. President Trump vowed to “obliterate” power plants in the Islamic Republic if the Strait of Hormuz is not swiftly reopened.
Kaveh Madani says knock-on effects on the world's economy will be 'both immediate and lasting' if conflict escalates further
By Emma Bussey | Fox News
Published March 22, 2026 8:18pm EDT
Iran is poised to strike critical desalination infrastructure across the Middle East within days, escalating tensions with the U.S. and Israel and triggering global economic fallout, a U.N. official warned Sunday.
Kaveh Madani, an Iranian scientist and U.N. official, said desalination plants across the region could be hit "within the next few days," raising the prospect of a broader regional water crisis and affecting global markets.
The strike threats made by the regime on Sunday came in response to President Donald Trump's warning that the U.S. would hit Iranian power infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz was opened within 48 hours.
A spokesperson for the Central Headquarters of Hazrat Khatam al-Anbiya (PBUH) said, "Following previous warnings, if Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked by the enemy, all energy, information technology, and desalination infrastructure belonging to the US and the regime in the region will be targeted."
U.N. official Kaveh Madani warns desalination plants across the Middle East could be struck within days, risking a regional water crisis and global economic fallout. (ruelleruelle/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
"The desalination plants might be targeted again within the next few days," Madani told Fox News Digital.
"The driest region of the world might see a real water war, but the knock-on effects on the world’s economy, including the U.S., will be both immediate and lasting," Madani said, pointing to what he described as a "new phase in the conflict" involving such critical civilian infrastructure.
"Now, add the possibility of damage to the already fragile water infrastructure, including treatment plants, pumping stations, and distribution networks," he said. "The consequences would be catastrophic and lasting."
Kaveh’s warning comes as the conflict — now in its fourth week — has expanded beyond military targets. Desalination facilities, including a plant on Iran’s Qeshm Island and another in Bahrain, have allegedly already been struck.
Iran threatens to target desalination and energy infrastructure within days, a U.N. official warns, citing lasting consequences for global markets and water supplies. (Gabriela Maj/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Desalination, the process of creating drinkable water from seawater, is critical to supplying water across Israel and many of Iran’s Gulf neighbors, particularly in such arid regions where natural freshwater is scarce.
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, echoed the regime’s threats in a post on X on Sunday, warning that "critical infrastructure, energy, and oil across the region will be irreversibly destroyed, and oil prices will rise for a long time" if Iran’s power plants are struck.
"With a blackout, water treatment and distribution systems will also collapse in some parts of the country," Madani clarified.
"Iran will retaliate by attacking desalination, energy, and other energy-related infrastructure in all countries in the region that are parties to the war, including Israel," he added. "The price of oil and gas will increase further, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, while a humanitarian disaster is created as millions of people lose access to water and electricity in the region."
An aerial view of the island of Qeshm, separated from the Iranian mainland by the Clarence Strait, December 10, 2023. (Stringer/File Photo/Reuters)
"The U.S. has allegedly already attacked a desalination plant in Qeshm Island, and the Iranians have allegedly responded by striking a plant in Bahrain," he said.
"Iran is the least reliant on desalination plants, so it is explicitly including them as legitimate targets for retaliation because this is the biggest vulnerability of the other parties to the war across the Middle East," he added.
Despite that relative advantage, Iran itself has faced years of severe drought, mismanagement of water resources, and declining groundwater levels, leaving parts of the country increasingly water-stressed.
"If Iranians run out of water and/or electricity, they won’t rise up," Holly Dagres, Libitzky Family Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said.
"The unfortunate truth is that the Islamic Republic would rather allow the country to burn than appear weak while it is facing an existential threat," she said.
Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to their highest levels since July 2025 on Monday morning after a drastic repricing of Fed rate cut expectations last week.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was up by more than 4 basis points at 4.435%, its highest in seven months. The 30-year Treasury bond yield was up just under 1 basis point to 4.966%. The 2-year Treasury note yield was higher by more than 10 basis points, reaching 3.997%.
One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
“Typically in times of heightened geopolitical risk you’d expect U.S. Treasurys to benefit from safe haven demand, but amid the general market rally over the past couple of years, the main mover for yields has been Fed rate expectations,” said Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics.
“Investors have focused more on what the Iran war means for oil prices and the Fed’s scope to continue cutting, and that’s reflected in how the 10-year has risen since the war began.”
The S&P Global Flash U.S. PMI report is due Tuesday morning, which measures the economic health of American manufacturing and services sectors.
“Clearly, Iran is not backing down,” wrote Ben Emons, CIO and founder of Fed Watch Advisors. “The risk-off sentiment could worsen substantially this week, with the first visible macro effects in a deluge of global PMI data. … Portfolio de-risking could continue, making cash a viable asset again.”
February’s PMI report indicated a slowdown of business growth for services firms and employment expansion, and economists expect further softening. A reading above 50 tends to indicate growth, and forecasts predict the latest report to come in at 50.5, down from 51.9 in February.
The moves in Treasury yields followed the intensification of the Iran war over the weekend.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Saturday that he would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran failed to fully reopen the Strait within 48 hours.
Iran responded by escalating threats to target energy infrastructure and desalination facilities in the Gulf. Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also said Saturday that entities that purchase American government bonds and “finance the U.S. military budget” would be considered legitimate targets, alongside military bases.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/10-year-treasury-yields-rise-to-highest-level-since-july-2025.html
New Delhi, March 21 (IANS) Pakistan will continue to pay over $15 million a month in capacity and utilisation charges to its LNG terminals even after QatarEnergy declared force majeure earlier this month, according to a new report.
According to the report by The News International, Pakistan is making daily payments of about $538,535 to the two terminals despite the suspension of LNG production from March 2.
Federal Minister for Petroleum, Ali Pervaiz Malik, reportedly criticised the agreements, describing them as faulty and not in the country’s interest.
Pakistan, which has imported LNG worth around $35 billion so far, paid nearly $3 billion in capacity charges alone.
In response to the force majeure declared by QatarEnergy, several state-run entities — Pakistan State Oil, Sui Southern Gas Company, Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited and Pakistan LNG Limited — have also invoked superior force clauses in their contracts, the report mentioned.
However, agreements with private LNG terminal operators still require uninterrupted payments in US dollars even when supply is halted and regasification does not take place.
As a result, Pakistan remains obligated to make payments without receiving gas, highlighting a major structural weakness in long-term LNG terminal contracts, officials said.
The report also noted that the payments are adding to financial pressure on the country at a time when its external account position remains fragile.
Earlier, another report highlighted that economic fragility in the neighbouring country has reached a critical stage following the US–Israel war with Iran due to a significant jump in oil prices and the surge in the trade gap.
Moreover, Pakistan’s economic fragility is reflected in its GDP growth rate, which is merely 3.1 per cent and its human development index (HDI) rank is 168 on a list of 193 countries, per capita income of $1,812, a poverty rate of 28.9 per cent, an adult literacy rate of 60 per cent, 25.2 million out-of-school children, and an unemployment rate for ages 15–24 of 12.8 per cent, the article stated.
–IANS
ag/na
https://bhaskarlive.in/pakistan-continues-to-pay-over-15-million-per-month-to-lng-terminals-report/
Kemi Badenoch has said that Britain is making the same mistakes on energy as the Nigeria she grew up in.
In the face of an energy crisis caused by the war in Iran, the Conservative Party leader hit out at Labour for shutting down the North Sea and refusing to issue new oil and gas licenses.
She compared Britain to the Nigeria of her childhood, suggesting that the Government’s focus on net zero risked Britain’s energy security.
Writing for The Telegraph, Mrs Badenoch said: “Energy is growth. I grew up in a country rich with oil – but because Nigeria’s leaders made bad policy choices it never lived up to its full potential, instead hampered by unreliable electricity and regular fuel shortages.
“Britain is now making similar mistakes. It astonishes me to see Labour considering subsidies as the first option instead of drilling our own oil and gas and cutting the green taxes deindustrialising the UK.”
Mrs Badenoch also attacked Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, whom she accused of “effectively running the Government” and using his power to push “illogical” and “dangerous” net zero dogma.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/21/oil-fuel-prices-united-airlines-boss-scott-kirby/
Egypt will settle $1.3 billion in arrears to international oil companies by June, the petroleum ministry said on Saturday, accelerating its previous timetable for repayments.
Egypt had accumulated about $6.1 billion in arrears to foreign oil companies by June 30, 2024 due to a prolonged foreign currency shortage that delayed payments and weighed on investment and gas output. The shortage has since eased, though some companies have said that arrears have been once again accumulating.
Under its prior timetable, announced in January this year, the government had expected to still have arrears of some $1.2 billion by June.
Clearing debt may encourage foreign oil and gas companies to resume drilling, which would boost local production that has been steadily falling since peaking in 2021.
More local production would help the country to reduce its energy imports.
By Irina Slav - Mar 23, 2026, 3:05 AM CDT
The International Energy Agency could release additional volumes of crude from storage should the need arise, the head of the agency, Fatih Birol, said today.
“If it is necessary, of course, we will do it. We look at the conditions, we will analyse, assess the markets and discuss with our member countries,” Birol said in Australia at the start of what Reuters described as “a world tour”.
The IEA earlier this month said it would release 400 million barrels of crude from OECD reserves to cushion the blow to oil markets caused by the disruption of tanker traffic in the Middle East. Birol pointed out that the additional release will not be triggered by any particular oil price level.
The coordinated oil release action, announced on March 11th by the IEA, represents the largest emergency oil release ever organized by the group and only the sixth such intervention since the IEA was created following the 1970s oil shocks. The move comes as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which serves as the critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade, has slowed sharply amid escalating military activity in the Gulf.
Birol has described the current oil supply crisis as worse than both the Arab oil embargo from the 1970s and the effects of the war in Ukraine put together. He also admitted that “A stock release will help to comfort the markets, but this is not the solution. It will only help to reduce the pain in the economy.”
The war in the Middle East has already prompted oil producers in the region to start slashing production as they run out of storage space. While some oil is leaving the region, it seems to be mostly Iranian oil. The situation has also worsened as a result of attacks from Iran on energy infrastructure in neighboring countries in response to Israeli and U.S. attacks on its own infrastructure, including the giant South Pars gas field.
Stock prices go up, stock prices go down -- and the reasons why aren't always obvious, at least not at first glance.
Take the relationship between oil prices and gold prices. Both are commodities, generally priced in U.S. dollars. When the dollar is strong, one can buy more oil or gold per dollar, and when the dollar is weak, one cannot buy as much oil or gold. To an extent, you'd expect both gold and oil to rise and fall in tandem when the value of the U.S. dollar falls and rises.
That logic hasn't been working well lately, however.
Iran, oil, and gold
On Feb. 28, 2026, U.S. and Israeli forces began to bomb Iran. Nervous about the conflict, investors initially fled to safe-haven assets such as gold, silver, and the U.S. dollar, which is up in value about 2% against other currencies over the past three weeks. (Generally, this should drive commodity prices down.)
However, Iran responded to the attacks by closing the Strait of Hormuz, crimping global access to shipments, and driving the price of oil higher regardless. Gold and silver prices, though -- and gold and silver stocks -- fell in response. In fact, they've all been falling steadily for the past week and a half.
Major gold producers such as Newmont Corp. (NYSE: NEM) and Barrick Mining (NYSE: B) are down 15% and 16%, respectively, over the last seven trading days. Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), America's biggest silver miner, is down 17%. The declines roughly track declines in the prices of gold and silver, down 10% and 16%, respectively, over the same period.
But aside from their tie to the U.S. dollar, what do the prices of gold and silver have to do with the price of oil?
Why high oil prices hurt precious metals mining stocks
The theory goes like this: Oil is used everywhere in the modern economy. Beyond just the gasoline refined for our personal cars, the ships and trucks that move everything in our economy also run on oil. When the price of oil rises, the price of transportation rises, too, causing the price of everything to go up.
We call this inflation.
When the Federal Reserve sees inflation rising -- and it will -- it's less likely to lower interest rates and more likely to raise them. This increases the cost of debt for all businesses as they're forced to pay higher interest rates on their bonds. And when investors see interest rates rise, they're more inclined to invest in those bonds (which pay interest) than to buy gold and silver, which do not.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/heres-why-high-oil-prices-170900838.html
Gold entered 2026 on the back of a parabolic run that saw the metal surge to an all-time high of close to $5,600/oz during January, fuelled by escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East and a global scramble for safe-haven assets.
However, the market is navigating a sharp and complex correction, one that has caught many investors off guard.
Gold market in 2026
Spot gold is currently trading around $4,500 /oz, with the sell-off driven not by any fundamental deterioration in gold's long-term investment case, but by a confluence of short-term macroeconomic forces that have temporarily overwhelmed its safe-haven appeal.
The Iran-Israel conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has cut off roughly 20% of global oil supply, has pushed crude prices above $100 per barrel. Rather than boosting gold as one might expect, this energy shock has triggered a wave of global inflation fears, prompting the Federal Reserve and other major central banks to signal that interest rate cuts will be delayed.
A higher-for-longer rate environment typically strengthens the US dollar and Treasury yields, both of which create a direct headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.
Compounding this, the initial panic triggered by the Iran conflict may have caused institutional investors to sell their liquid assets (including gold) to cover margin calls and stem losses in crashing equity markets. With gold having risen so sharply earlier in the year, profit-taking has added further downward pressure, creating a snowball effect across futures and ETF markets.
It is worth noting, however, that this sell-off is largely a paper gold phenomenon. While futures and ETF positions have been unwound aggressively, premiums on physical gold remain elevated, reflecting the conviction of long-term buyers who view the current dip as a correction within a broader structural bull market, and not the end of one.
That view is shared by Wall Street's major banks. JP Morgan, UBS and Goldman Sachs all maintain long-term price targets of $5,000–$6,300/oz, characterising the current weakness as a shakeout of weaker hands rather than a reversal of trend.
https://www.ig.com/za/trading-strategies/best-gold-shares-to-watch-in-2026-260322
Gold is sliding over 8% on Monday, breaching a four‑month low at 4,150, as escalating Middle East tensions fuel inflation concerns and expectations of higher global interest rates.
The precious metal has broken below its medium‑term ascending trendline and extended losses into a ninth consecutive session, slipping under its year‑to‑date low of 4,400 from January 2 and marking its weakest level since November 11, 2025. Last week alone, gold shed more than 10.5%.
The momentum indicators confirm the entrenched bearish tone. The stochastics and RSI are flatlining and firmly in oversold territory, reflecting persistent downside pressure, while the MACD continues to deepen in negative territory, underscoring the force of the selloff.
The 200‑day simple moving average (SMA) near 4,090 is now the key support to watch. A decisive break would reinforce the bearish bias and expose the psychological 4,000 level. Below that, the October and September lows near 3,880, 3,720 and 3,620 become the next downside targets.
On the upside, initial resistance sits in the 4,300-4,400 band, followed by a potential recovery attempt toward the previously supportive uptrend line near 4,650.
Summing up, gold’s downtrend remains firmly in place, with monthly losses now exceeding 21.5% and wiping out year‑to‑date gains. As long as price stays below the broken uptrend line, and especially if it falls through the 200‑day SMA, any rallies are likely to remain shallow and vulnerable to renewed selling for now.
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-plunges-over-8-to-4-month-lows-eyes-4-000-202603230754
The Elk Creek Project in Nebraska is entering a pivotal stage. With the recent full integration of the GX Acquisition II units into NioCorp Developments Ltd., the company's primary objective is now securing the substantial capital required for construction. Success in obtaining a key piece of U.S. government financing could transform this venture into a cornerstone of the nation's critical minerals strategy.
Operational Progress and Strategic Review
On the ground, the company has initiated a significant physical phase of the project. In early March, excavation work began for the primary mine portal, which will serve as the main underground access point to the mineral deposit. This construction phase is expected to take approximately nine months, marking the tangible start of mining development in southeastern Nebraska.
Concurrently, management is preparing an updated feasibility study. A central focus of this review is the potential inclusion of rare earth elements into the project's resource model. To date, Elk Creek has been centered on niobium, scandium, and titanium—metals classified as critical for U.S. defense and aerospace industries. Should the revised study confirm economically viable rare earth deposits, the long-term valuation of the site could be substantially enhanced.
The portal construction is scheduled for completion by the end of 2026. Quarterly reports in the interim will provide updates on both operational progress and the findings of the new technical study.
The Crucial EXIM Bank Decision
A pending decision from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) represents the most significant near-term catalyst for the project. The bank is currently conducting an extensive technical and environmental due diligence review. At stake is a potential loan of up to $800 million. This financing would cover a major portion of the estimated construction costs and is viewed by the market as the essential trigger for full-scale development.
To fund ongoing operations while awaiting this decision, NioCorp concluded a capital raise in late February. These proceeds are being directed toward on-site preparatory work. A favorable ruling from EXIM would be interpreted as a strong signal regarding the project's long-term viability and its alignment with federal priorities for securing domestic supply chains for critical materials.
