Capitals, March 24 (SANA) Countries worldwide are taking emergency and precautionary measures to absorb the impact of the US–Israeli–Iranian war on the global economy, as energy prices surge following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Gulf oil and gas facilities.
Japan Turns to Oil Reserves
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced that Japan will begin using its strategic oil reserves starting Thursday, alongside shared reserves held with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Tokyo had already released private-sector reserves equivalent to 15 days of supply earlier this month. Japan relies on the Middle East for about 95 percent of its oil imports and holds more than 400 million barrels in reserves.
Europe Calls for De-escalation
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for an immediate halt to hostilities, warning that the situation is “critical” for global energy supply chains.
Ukraine Warns of Diesel Shortage
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered measures to secure stable diesel supplies amid rising oil prices, with analysts warning of a possible shortage starting next month. Diesel prices have already risen by about 25 percent since the war began.
Philippines Turns Back to Coal
The Philippines said it will increase coal-fired power generation starting next month to offset rising electricity costs due to disrupted gas shipments. Coal accounts for about 60 percent of the country’s electricity.
Prices Surge, IEA Steps In
Oil and gas prices have jumped sharply amid continued attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency earlier approved the use of strategic reserves to help stabilize global markets.
F.J.
NEW DELHI/SINGAPORE, - India's Reliance Industries , operator of the world's biggest refining complex, has purchased 5 million barrels of Iranian crude, days after the U.S. temporarily removed sanctions on the oil, three sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
The Indian refiner bought the oil from the National Iranian Oil Co., two of the sources said. One of them said the crude was priced at a premium of about $7 a barrel to ICE Brent futures. It was not immediately clear when the oil would be delivered.
Iranian oil, which in recent years has mainly been bought by Chinese independent refiners, is often rebranded as originating from another country.
Reliance did not respond to emails seeking comment. NIOC could not be reached for comment.
The Trump administration on Friday issued a 30-day sanctions waiver for the purchase of Iranian oil already at sea. The waiver applies to oil loaded on any vessel, including tankers under sanctions, on or before March 20 and discharged by April 19.
The deal marks India's first purchase of Iranian oil since the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer halted imports from Iran in May 2019, months after Washington reimposed sanctions on Tehran. The purchase comes after Indian refiners snapped up more than 40 million barrels of Russian crude after the U.S. announced atemporary sanctions waiver this month to ease supply shortages.
Other Asian refiners including Indian state firms are making checks to see if they can purchase the oil, several sources have said. However, Asia's top refiner Sinopec does not intend to buy Iranian oil, a senior executive at the Chinese state giant said on Monday.
By Kate Abnett
BRUSSELS, March 24 (Reuters) - The European Commission will no longer submit a legal proposal to permanently ban Russian oil imports over Moscow's war in Ukraine on April 15 as previously planned, an updated EU legislative agenda showed on Tuesday.
An EU official, however, told Reuters the proposal had not been cancelled and would still be published though no longer by the mid-April date due to "current geopolitical developments".
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is creating the biggest oil supply disruption in history, according to the International Energy Agency, sending global crude prices soaring.
The proposal would fix into law a full phase-outof Russian oil imports by no later than end-2027. The European Union has already legislated a phase-out by late 2027 of gas imports from Russia.
PROPOSAL WOULD KEEP BAN IN PLACE IF RUSSIA SANCTIONS LIFTED
The measure would have little immediate impact on physical supplies, since the EU was importing just 1% of its oil from Russia by the final quarter of 2025, having slashed imports since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
But Brussels wants to enshrine a full phase-out of Russian oil in legislation that would remain in place, even if a peace deal in the Ukraine war eventually leads to the EU lifting sanctions.
EU sanctions on seaborne Russian oil have already eliminated most of the bloc's imports.
Hungary and Slovakia were the only two EU countries still importing Russian oil by January 27, when Kyiv said a Russian drone strike hit pipeline equipment in Ukraine, disrupting Russian oil shipments. Budapest and Bratislavahave accused Ukraine of deliberately delaying the resumption of oil flows, triggering a political dispute that has seen Hungary block an EU loan to Kyiv.
The initial April 15 date would have seen the EU proposal land three days after Hungary's parliamentary election. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has maintained cordial ties with Moscow despite the Ukraine war, isstrongly opposed to any ban.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this month that returning to Russian energy would be "a strategic blunder" and make Europe more vulnerable.
(Reporting by Kate Abnett; Editing by Inti Landauro and Joe Bavier)
By Michael Kern - Mar 24, 2026, 6:00 PM CDT
India’s fuel market is sending a confusing signal right now. The Iran war has pushed global oil markets into shock, the Indian oil basket has surged above $150 a barrel, and the risk to key supply routes through the Middle East is rising. Yet at the pump, prices have barely moved.
That disconnect is exactly where this story begins, because petrol prices in India do not move the way most people assume they do. They are based on a formula that is filtered through taxes, logistics, and policy choices that can dramatically change what consumers actually end up paying.
The starting point is crude oil. India imports more than 80% of the crude it consumes, which means global oil prices set the tone for everything that follows. When Brent or the Dubai Oman benchmark rises, India feels it quickly. But there is no direct one-to-one passthrough. Since crude is purchased in dollars, the rupee dollar exchange rate is part of the story too. A weaker rupee raises the cost of imports even if crude prices are flat, while a stronger rupee can offset some of the pressure.
Then comes refining and transport. Crude does not go straight into a consumer’s fuel tank. It is imported, processed at refineries, and then moved through depots and distribution networks before it reaches retail outlets. By that stage, the price already includes the cost of crude, freight, import charges, refining, inland transport, and the marketing margins of the oil companies.
From there, India’s three dominant oil marketing companies (Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum) take over, together controlling about 90% of the retail market. These companies revise petrol and diesel prices every morning at 6 a.m. under the dynamic pricing system introduced in 2017. That system replaced the older model under which prices were revised every two weeks. In principle, it was meant to align domestic fuel prices more closely with international crude movements and currency shifts.
But that is only part of the picture.
The Tax System That Splits the Market
The real divergence comes when taxes are added.
The retail price of petrol in India is built on a straightforward structure: the base fuel price, plus central excise duty, plus dealer commission, plus state VAT. The first three are relatively easy to understand. The last one is what creates the big differences across the country.
The central government’s excise duty is largely uniform, but state VAT isn’t. Each state government sets its own VAT rate based on its fiscal needs, and fuel remains one of the easiest and most dependable sources of tax revenue. That is why petrol prices can vary so sharply from one state to another, even when the underlying fuel cost is almost the same.
As of March 2026, the gap is large. Petrol prices range from roughly ?82 a litre in Andaman and Nicobar to more than ?109 in Andhra Pradesh, with many large states clustered above ?100. That is a spread of more than ?25 a litre for essentially the same fuel. Crude oil does not explain that difference. State taxation does.
This is also why the question of GST keeps coming up. If petrol were brought under the GST regime, prices would likely become more uniform across India. But states would lose a major revenue lever. For that reason, the current structure remains in place, and consumers continue to face different prices depending on where they fill up.
There are other smaller factors that can influence the final number. Areas farther from refineries or depots can carry somewhat higher transport costs. Dealer commissions can vary slightly. Local distribution costs matter at the margin. But these are secondary. The main reason petrol prices differ state by state is taxation.
How India Is Smoothing the Oil Shock
That also helps explain the current puzzle: if crude has surged so sharply, why have retail prices remained steady?
The answer is that the daily pricing mechanism is not always applied in a purely mechanical way. Oil marketing companies can absorb part of the shock, at least for a time, especially during periods of extreme volatility. That appears to be what is happening now. Refiners are taking some of the pressure on their own books, inventories remain available, and the government is clearly trying to avoid an immediate pass-through to consumers.
India has handled fuel pricing this way before. Prices are officially deregulated, and the daily pricing model remains in place, but in practice there is room for delay, smoothing, and political judgment. Consumers are shielded from sudden spikes, but that also means they do not always receive the full benefit when global prices fall.
So what determines petrol prices in India? At the broadest level, it comes down to three layers. Global crude prices and exchange rates set the base cost. Oil marketing companies calculate and revise prices under the daily dynamic pricing system. Then taxes—especially state VAT—determine what consumers actually pay.
And why does petrol price differ from one state to another? Because India does not really have one unified fuel market. It has multiple tax regimes sitting on top of the same fuel supply chain. The crude may be global, the refining system may be national, and the pricing mechanism may be updated daily, but the final bill is still heavily shaped by the state.
That is why petrol prices in India can move slowly when oil surges, and why the same litre of fuel can cost dramatically different amounts depending on where you buy it.
Tehran’s statement on opening of key waterway comes as US President Donald Trump says talks are taking place to end the war.
Cargo ships sail in the Gulf towards the Strait of Hormuz in the United Arab Emirates, on March 19, 2026 [AP]
By John Power
Published On 25 Mar 202625 Mar 2026
Iran has said that “non-hostile” ships may transit the Strait of Hormuz amid a collapse of maritime traffic through the waterway that has prompted the biggest global energy crisis in decades.
In a statement on Tuesday, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said vessels may avail of “safe passage” through the waterway, “provided that they neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran and fully comply with the declared safety and security regulations.”
Ships will be allowed to transit the strait “in coordination with the competent Iranian authorities”, the statement posted on social media said.
Iran earlier shared a similar statement about the status of the strait with the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the UN body responsible for the safety and security of international shipping.
Tehran did not elaborate in the statements on what regulations vessels need to follow to safely navigate the strait, through which about one-fifth of global supplies of oil and liquified natural gas usually transit.
Iran’s remarks came as United States President Donald Trump said negotiations were under way to end the US-Israel war on Iran, despite Tehran’s previous denials that the sides were in talks.
While a small number of ships are passing through the strait each day, traffic remains at a fraction of the levels seen before the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28.
Five vessels were tracked transiting the waterway via their automatic identification systems on Monday, down from an average of 120 daily transits before the conflict, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.
While Iran warned in the initial days of the conflict that any ship attempting passage would face attack, officials in Tehran have in recent weeks insisted that the waterway remains open, except to “enemies”.
The collapse of shipping in the strait has prompted a surge in global energy prices, with some analysts predicting oil could rise to $150 or even $200 a barrel if the waterway stays effectively closed.
After hovering above $100 per barrel for much of March, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, fell more than 9 percent on Wednesday after The New York Times, the Reuters news agency, and Israel’s Channel 12 reported that the Trump administration had sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war.
Asia’s major stock indexes opened higher on Wednesday amid hopes for an end to the conflict.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was up about 2.3 percent as of 02:30 GMT, while South Korea’s KOSPI was 2.6 percent higher.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was up 0.7 percent.
Posted 10:30 -- May corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel, May soybeans are down 3 1/2 cents, May KC wheat is down 3 cents, May Chicago wheat is down 5 1/4 cents and MIAX May Minneapolis wheat is up 1/4 cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 167.03 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.340 and May crude oil is up $2.94 per barrel. April gold is up $9.90 per ounce. At midmorning, equities have recovered and crude oil is slipping while ag commodities are mixed to mostly lower while bean oil is higher.
Livestock
Posted 11:42 -- June live cattle are up $0.65 at $235.3, April feeder cattle are up $3.68 at $356.15, June lean hogs are down $0.53 at $103.875, May corn is up 4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17.74 points and NASDAQ is down 148.27 points. The livestock complex is mixed heading into Tuesday's noon hour as the cattle contracts are pleased to see a slight uptick in fundamental support from stronger midday boxed beef prices. But the lean hog contracts are trading lower as traders simply don't see enough support to push the contracts higher at this point.
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2026/03/24/periodic-updates-grains-livestock
KEY POINTS
Workers unload urea fertilizer from a cargo ship in Yantai Port, Shandong Province, China on March 13, 2026. Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images
Farmers in the northern hemisphere are heading into the crucial spring months, during which major fieldwork must begin. Their peers in the south, meanwhile, are busy harvesting crops before the winter sets in.
However, their work now takes place as the Iran war creates serious supply constraints for essential fertilizer products — fueling massive price spikes and warnings of looming food insecurity.
Around one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the UN.
The waterway, a critical shipping route that runs along Iran’s southern border, has been severely disrupted since the start of the war, with traffic effectively coming to a halt and several ships being hit by projectiles in or near the waterway.
Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, the price of fertilizer — much of which is produced in the Middle East — has skyrocketed.
Fertilizer futures contracts are less liquid than other commodities, making prices more opaque. But analysts working in the sector told CNBC that they had seen the cost of FOB granular urea in Egypt — a bellwether of nitrogen fertilizers — jump to around $700 per metric ton, up from $400 to $490 before the war began.
In a Monday note, Oxford Economics’ Alpine Macro said urea and ammonia prices had surged by around 50% and 20%, respectively, since the war began. Other fertilizers, like potash and sulfur, have also risen in price.
The Middle East is a particularly large exporter of urea and nitrogen products, according to Chris Lawson, VP of market intelligence and prices at CRU.
“With the Strait of Hormuz essentially cut off, there’s a big chunk of global trade that isn’t able to move right now,” Lawson said. “We estimate around 30% of exportable suppliers are not really available to the market right now, that is Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain, but that also includes Iran.”
Iran, Lawson said, is an important producer of nitrogen-based fertilizers and one of the largest exporters globally.
“There’s a lot of traded supply that is at risk — 30% of global urea trade comes out of Iran and the Hormuz-constrained countries,” he told CNBC.
“It’s a long supply chain — if farmers aren’t able to get the urea that they need, crop yields will inevitably go lower. Nitrogen is the main nutrient that a crop needs to grow, [and] there will be inventories that can be drawn down, so you’re not really going to see an impact on crop yields and a loss of crop production until later in the year.”
‘You can’t skip a season of nitrogen’
Dawid Heyl, a co-portfolio manager for the Global Natural Resources strategy at Ninety One, told CNBC that nitrogen fertilizers like urea were at the forefront of the Middle East crisis because — unlike other fertilizer groups like potash and phosphates — nitrogen is “the one element that you need to get to the plant every single year.”
“You can skip a season of potash, you can skip a season of phosphates, but you can’t skip a season of nitrogen,” Heyl said.
With farmers in the northern hemisphere due to begin fertilizing their fields, the supply constraint has intersected with cyclical demand. Urea, one of the world’s most used fertilizers, is used in the growth of various crops, including maize, wheat, rapeseed and some fruits and vegetables.
A worker operates a tractor to plant and fertilize corn at a farm in Wapato, Washington, U.S., on May 2, 2025. Emree Weaver | Bloomberg | Getty Images
“There’s a direct correlation to your nitrogen application and your agricultural yield in the end,” Heyl said. “That’s why I’m a lot more concerned about the current crisis than I was when Russia-Ukraine happened four years ago.”
When Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the two countries were major exporters of fertilizers, with Russia accounting for a significant proportion of global potash production. Sanctions on Russian exports added pressure to a market that was already experiencing shortages, pushing prices higher.
“This, to me, is starting to feel like it could be worse, because it could really have an impact on agricultural yields across a lot of geographies, and across the major crops such as maize [and] other big ones,” Heyl added, noting that most fertilizer futures had seen double-digit price growth in the weeks since the war began.
Sarah Marlow, global head of fertiliser pricing at Argus, agreed that the unfolding crisis in the Middle East would have a bigger impact on the fertilizer trade than the Russia-Ukraine war.
“Almost 50% of all globally traded sulfur comes from that region. For urea, it’s around a third of all globally traded urea that comes from that region and for ammonia, it’s close to 25%,” Marlow told CNBC on a video call.
“So, it’s huge. It’s very significant — and more significant in some ways than the impact of Ukraine because it is affecting multiple producers.”
“You’re not just talking about one or two,” she added, noting that exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Iran and the UAE were all being affected.
“The sulfur market was already structurally tight before this began and we’d already seen a peak in price in January,” Marlow said. “We’ve now seen more production go offline and exports unable to get out and to leave the region, so there’s even more of a shortage and we could see further price spikes as a result.”
Fertilizer production is also taking a hit due to a lack of storage options for products that cannot be shipped and a shutdown of some energy facilities in the Middle East.
Earlier this month, QatarEnergy announced it would stop downstream production of urea following its decision to bring liquefied natural gas production to a halt.
Meanwhile, China — another large exporter of fertilizers — has put restrictions on exports to protect its domestic market from shortages, news agency Reuters reported last week.
Food security fears
Ninety One’s Heyl said that markets had entered 2026 with fairly high stocks of basic food commodities that were reliant on fertilizer deliveries, meaning there were “buffer stocks” that might help offset some shortages of corn, wheat, soybeans and rice.
“If agricultural yields were [hypothetically] impacted by 5% this year, I don’t think we’ll be looking at starvation, but it would certainly cause food inflation,” he told CNBC, noting that emerging-market countries were more likely to feel the brunt of the impact.
“Unfortunately, the poorer countries in the world are quite often more exposed to these crises,” Heyl said. “I think some of the African nations that import a lot of grains, for instance, are going to be impacted.”
India, which imports nitrogen fertilizers as well as natural gas to produce them domestically, also faces high exposure to the shortages, Heyl added.
“I’m more concerned for [a country] like India, for regions like East Africa, which are going to be more vulnerable,” he said. “Emerging markets east of Suez and the global south are quite often the sort of last to be able to afford [inflated prices].”
But he noted that the U.S. was not completely insulated from the implications of a fertilizer price shock, noting that while America produces a lot of its own nitrogen fertilizer, the country “has not got self-sufficiency.”
According to the U.S. Fertilizer Institute, around a third of nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizers used in the United States are imported.
“It’s going to be inflationary for the farmer,” Heyl said of rising fertilizer prices trickling through to the United States. “Are there going to be certain regions that can’t get their hand on the fertilizer or have to ration?”
A total of 54 agricultural groups recently wrote to U.S. President Donald Trump to call for “much-needed market relief for America’s farmers” amid surging fuel and fertilizer prices.
“As planting season began in earnest across much of the U.S., the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent fuel and fertilizer prices skyrocketing,” they said. “Maritime freight disruptions from the ongoing conflict in Iran pose significant consequences to food security here at home and around the world.”
The Kremlin expects to not only profit from rising fertilizer prices but also exact revenge for the collapse of the 2023 grain deal.
By Alexandra Prokopenko | Published on Mar 24, 2026
Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s frequent statements that victory in Iran is close, there is no end in sight to the hostilities in the Persian Gulf. On the contrary, new approaches to limited traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are gradually being implemented. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has started issuing paid transit permits to vessels unaligned with the United States or Israel, and a growing number of countries want to discuss “safe passage of their vessels.”
The consequences of restricted transit for the oil market are already clear and well known. Not as much attention is being paid to the impact on the global fertilizer market. The changes there will be more gradual, but irreversible. Food prices will take six to nine months to react to the supply shock in the fertilizer market resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Russia might enjoy more lasting benefits than temporarily lining its pockets with petrodollars.
The Strait of Hormuz is the most important transit route not just for oil but also for fertilizers. Persian Gulf countries account for about 46 percent of global seaborne urea transit and around 30 percent of ammonia transit. These nitrogen compounds are integral for efficient cultivation of almost every food crop. However, their shipping from the Persian Gulf is almost completely paralyzed.
Disruptions to maritime transit through the strait have already triggered a sharp surge in nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer prices. According to Platts, as of March 19, the free on board (FOB) price for Middle East granular urea rose to $604–710 per ton, up from $436–494 before the start of the war. The Southeast Asia granular urea was at $750 per ton on March 19, up from $490–498 in late February. While these prices are still below the 2022 record highs, they continue to grow.
Furthermore, unlike with oil, there are no strategic reserves of urea, no alternate pipelines for ammonia, and no military escort programs. Saudi Arabia has created infrastructure to export oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, but no such solutions exist for fertilizers.
The lag between disruptions in fertilizer supply and rising food prices is measured in seasons rather than days. A farmer who doesn’t have access to urea at the start of the planting season might use less fertilizer, switch to a different crop, or forgo planting altogether. This decision affects the harvest in three to six months, and takes longer still to impact supermarket prices. Today we are at the very beginning of this cycle.
The UN World Food Program estimates that the number of people experiencing acute food insecurity could rise by 45 million to a record-high 363 million if the war in Iran doesn’t end by mid-2026, and oil prices remain above $100 a barrel.
The geographic distribution of this increase is predictable and politically significant: an additional 17.7 million people in East and Southern Africa, 10.4 million in West and Central Africa, and 9.1 million in Asia. Many in these regions will be happy to buy not just Russian fertilizers, but also the Kremlin’s narrative that Moscow is the best guarantor of food security for the Global South.
Similar dynamics played out in 2022, when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine had also hit the fertilizer market hard. However, back then, the disruptions in Black Sea shipping had simultaneously driven up grain prices, which partially offset the rising cost of fertilizers for farmers.
Today, the grain prices are only growing a little, because Iran is not a major agricultural producer. Thus, higher expenses for farmers at the start of the planting season aren’t being compensated with higher crop values, and the consequences for the food market will emerge later and last longer.
As with the oil market, Russia is one of the main beneficiaries of the turmoil in the fertilizer market. Russia accounts for about 23 percent of global ammonia exports, 14 percent of global urea exports, and—together with Belarus—40 percent of global potash exports. Furthermore, its export infrastructure is completely independent of the Strait of Hormuz. Moscow doesn’t need a ceasefire, a military escort, or a diplomatic breakthrough to ramp up its deliveries. All it needs is orders, and it is getting more and more of these.
Importers in Nigeria and Ghana are already pre-purchasing Russian fertilizers for the third quarter of 2026. This is a rational market response to the disappearance of competing supply, and once established, these connections will solidify into a dependency that could outlast any ceasefire.
Moscow has already employed this tactic. In 2022–2023, the Kremlin used the Black Sea Grain Initiative as diplomatic leverage in Africa and the Middle East, pushing importer countries for friendlier positions and corresponding votes in the UN as an unofficial precondition for resuming deliveries.
Fertilizers are even more convenient as leverage. They receive less media attention in the West than wheat, and they are more critical for the agricultural sector. The bureaucrats responsible for fertilizer procurement in Ethiopia and Bangladesh don’t think about the Ukraine conflict when they need urea before the monsoon season arrives. They call the Kremlin, and the Kremlin answers.
Moscow is well aware of these new opportunities. In a March 18 interviewwith Kommersant, presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev said that the U.S. war with Iran is not a temporary crisis, but a structural realignment that should be leveraged. According to Patrushev, the U.S.-Israeli operation is a “catalyst for the redistribution of the global energy market and the disruption of maritime logistics” and has “unpredictable humanitarian and economic consequences.”
Patrushev made no mention of Ukraine in the interview. However, he did propose providing naval convoys to protect merchant ships. In August 2024, Patrushev was appointed chairman of the newly established Russian Maritime Board. Meanwhile, his son Dmitry Patrushev is a deputy prime minister for agriculture and fertilizer production.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers a chain reaction of three consecutive shocks in the agricultural sector. The first—a surge in fertilizer prices—is already under way. Even farmers in developed nations are feeling it, albeit less acutely due to existing stockpiles and access to financing.
The second—reduced crop yields as a result of high fertilizer prices—will come in the fall. Its impact will be uneven: agricultural producers in the United States and the EU will find it easier to diversify their suppliers than those in many countries of Africa and Asia.
The third—food inflation—will follow in 2027. Food is a commodity with a very low price elasticity of demand, particularly in poorer nations. A supply shock translates almost entirely into higher prices rather than lower consumption, and lower consumption is itself a catastrophe: in poorer nations, lower consumption means famine and not just changes in the composition of the consumer basket.
For Russia, each of these three shocks is important in its own way. Moscow imposed export quotas on fertilizers back in 2025 in order to stabilize the domestic market. A rapid increase in exports would require corresponding government decisions and could run up against infrastructure constraints at the ports.
Historically, Russia was the world’s largest exporter of anhydrous ammonia; however, the Togliatti–Odesa ammonia pipeline is note currently operating due to the war in Ukraine. A new terminal on the Taman Peninsula was supposed to partially resolve this issue, but the details on its full capacity remain unclear. Nevertheless, the Kremlin has already declared that “Russia is one of the few countries that can ensure a growing market supply.”
In the long run, the Kremlin will enjoy geopolitical gains from the turmoil in the Persian Gulf and not just financial benefits. Additional oil revenues are likely, but could run out. Meanwhile, higher prices on fertilizers and food are a victory of a different magnitude. Russia won’t just profit from rising prices; it will have the opportunity to convert its market power into political influence and acquire leverage over countries whose neutrality is vital for the West.
The war in Iran will probably end before most people see its connection with the rise in food prices in 2027. By that point, Russia will be able to position itself as an indispensable supplier that saved the world from starvation. The Kremlin did not sow this harvest, but it will most likely reap it.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/03/russia-new-fertilizer-export
Chifeng Gold operates six gold mines and one polymetallic mine across China, South East Asia and West Africa.
Following the transactions, Zijin Gold’s ownership in Chifeng will increase to 572 million shares. Credit: Piotr Swat/Shutterstock.com.
Zijin Mining’s wholly owned subsidiary Zijin Gold is set to assume control of Chifeng Gold following its agreement to acquire a substantial shareholding.
Zijin Gold will acquire 242 million A shares from Chifeng Gold’s largest shareholder, Li Jinyang, and Zhejiang Hanfeng, a ‘concert party’ of Li Jinyang, for 41.36 yuan ($6) per share.
This acquisition includes a 1.3% premium over the closing price of Chifeng’s shares before trading was halted, amounting to around 10bn yuan ($1.45bn) in total.
Additionally, Zijin Gold has entered a strategic investment agreement to subscribe for 311 million new H shares of Chifeng Gold under a specific mandate, for HK$30.19 ($3.85) per H share.
This represents approximately 83% of the average price over the 60 days prior to the trading suspension, with an investment totalling HK$9.38bn, equivalent to about 8.25bn yuan.
Following these transactions, Zijin Gold’s ownership in Chifeng will increase to 572 million shares, accounting for approximately 25.85% of Chifeng’s total shares post-issuance of new H shares.
This will grant Zijin controlling authority over Chifeng Gold and allow for the consolidation of the latter’s financial statements into the group’s records.
The transactions received approval during the ninth term of the board in 2026 and are not categorised as connected transactions or significant asset restructurings; hence, shareholder approval is not mandatory.
However, these transactions are contingent upon fulfilling certain precedent conditions and involve inherent investment risks.
Chifeng Gold currently operates six gold mines and one polymetallic mine across China, South East Asia and West Africa.
Its reported resources include 583t of gold with an average grade of 1.54 grams per tonne, alongside copper, zinc (lead), molybdenum and rare earths resources, as per its 2025 annual report.
In January this year, Zijin Gold signed a definitive agreement to acquire all issued and outstanding shares in Canadian company Allied Gold for an equity value of nearly C$5.5bn ($4.01bn), in an all-cash deal.
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/zijin-to-acquire-stake-chifeng-gold/
Irish refinery linked to complex supply chain
Leaked records and public data indicate that Aughinish alumina exports from Ireland to Russia form part of a supply chain ending with Russian arms producers. The Aughinish refinery, on the Shannon estuary, belongs to Russian aluminium group Rusal and serves as Ireland’s only alumina producer, the primary raw material for aluminium.
Exports surged after Ukraine invasion
Exports to Russian smelters rose sharply after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Ireland sent $243 million of alumina to Russia in 2022, increasing by 55% to $376 million in 2024. Alumina shipments remain legal, as the EU has not sanctioned the commodity.
Supply chain complexity challenges sanctions
Experts warn that multi-tier defence supply chains make it difficult to track materials to their end users. Prof Aristides Matopoulos of Cranfield University said the chain – from bauxite to alumina, smelter, intermediary, and weapons producer – can appear compliant while still supplying sanctioned users.
Rusal ships alumina to Russian sites, including a Krasnoyarsk smelter, where workers convert it into aluminium. Public records show Aughinish exported almost 500,000 tonnes of alumina to Krasnoyarsk in 2024. That volume represented about two-thirds of the smelter’s alumina imports and roughly 25% of its annual aluminium output.
Connections to Russian arms producers
Leaked records suggest Rusal’s aluminium reaches Russian defence firms through its trading firm, Aluminium Sales Company (ASK). These firms produce missiles, explosives, and long-range bombers used in Ukraine. Between February 2022 and April 2025, Russian defence contracts bought $337 million of aluminium via ASK.
Company and government responses
Aughinish and Rusal stress they comply with EU laws. A company spokesperson said: “We operate in strict compliance with all applicable EU laws, including sanctions, export control measures and trade regulations. Alumina and aluminium serve broad civilian purposes and support thousands of workers and families.”
Ireland’s Department of Enterprise said EU sanctions do not cover alumina exports. The department reaffirmed Ireland’s support for Ukraine and its commitment to enforce sanctions once they take effect.
https://en.sigmalive.com/irish-metals-refinery-linked-to-russias-war-supply-chain/
Compared to the previous month, the figure fell by 8.1%
In February 2026, German steelmakers increased steel production by 4.8% y/y – to 2.83 million tons. Compared to the previous month, production fell by 8.1%. This is according to data from the German Steel Association (WV Stahl).
Last month, 1.97 million tons of steel were produced in basic oxygen furnaces (+7.3% y/y; -10.9% m/m), and 860,000 tons in electric arc furnaces (-0.4% y/y; -1% m/m).
Pig iron production in February rose by 6.1% y/y but fell by 11.3% month-on-month to 1.8 million tons. Hot-rolled steel production increased by 8.3% y/y – to 2.56 million tons, matching the previous month’s figure.
In the first two months of this year, steel output in Germany totaled 5.91 million tons (+9.9% y/y). However, as noted by the industry association, despite this positive trend, production levels remain below the long-term average.
As a reminder, in 2025, Germany reduced steel production by 8.6% compared to 2024, down to 34.09 million tons. Last year, 23.64 million tons of steel were produced in basic oxygen furnaces (-10.7% y/y), and 10.44 million tons in electric arc furnaces (-3.5% y/y). Pig iron production over the 12-month period fell by 10.1% y/y, to 21.87 million tons. Rolled steel production decreased by 5.5% y/y, to 29.76 million tons.
https://gmk.center/en/news/germany-increased-steel-production-by-4-8-y-y-in-february/
Last month, China saw a 3.6% year-over-year decline
Global steel production in February 2026 fell by 2.2% year-over-year and by 3.7% month-over-month, reaching 141.8 million tons. This is according to the World Steel Association’s global ranking of steel-producing countries (69).
In the first two months of the year, global steel output totaled 298.2 million tons (-1.5% year-on-year).
Total steel production in the CIS countries plus Ukraine fell by 10.5% year-on-year during the month – to 6 million tons; specifically, steel output in Ukraine in February 2026 decreased by 9.9% year-on-year – to 515,000 tons.
According to World Steel, the top ten steel-producing countries in January included:
As reported by GMK Center, global steel production fell by 2% year-on-year in 2025, to 1.8 billion tons. Total steel production in the CIS countries and Ukraine decreased by 4.4% year-on-year in 2025, to 81.3 million tons. China reduced output by 4.4% year-on-year (960.8 million tons), India increased it by 10.4% year-on-year (164.9 million tons), and the U.S. by 3.1% year-on-year (82 million tons).
https://gmk.center/en/news/global-steel-production-fell-by-2-2-y-y-in-february/
London, March 24, 2026, 11:46 GMT.
Glencore plc slipped 0.69 pence to 514.91 pence by 11:10 GMT on Tuesday, with miners in London losing ground as renewed Iran war jitters rattled demand for cyclical names. The FTSE 100 mining index shed 0.4%. Oil names moved higher, with crude again topping $100 a barrel.
This matters for Glencore, caught between two diverging commodity trends. Copper—long a bellwether for factory demand—has felt the sting of global growth fears. Coal, by contrast, is getting a lift as Asian utilities trim their LNG purchases to avoid high costs.
Speaking to Reuters on Monday, Freeport-McMoRan CEO Kathleen Quirk said the market’s pricing reflects worries over global growth, though she sees copper demand as driven by longer-term, more fundamental trends. That’s relevant for Glencore, which noted in February that stronger metals prices and improved output—copper in particular—gave second-half earnings a boost. Still, adjusted EBITDA for the full year slipped 6%.
Coal is stepping in for now. Asian spot LNG prices have soared—doubling to levels last seen three years ago, Reuters said last week. Meanwhile, the main thermal coal benchmark jumped 13.2% this month. “The conflict will significantly reduce Asian LNG demand growth in 2026,” Lucas Schmitt, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told Reuters.
Glencore’s stock has managed to weather the year more firmly than Rio Tinto. On March 13, Reuters noted that Glencore shares had surged 26% since Jan. 7, outpacing Rio’s performance and fueling the valuation argument after their merger discussions collapsed in February.
Glencore has worked to reassure its income-focused investors, announcing a $2 billion payout to shareholders on Feb. 18. Chief Executive Gary Nagle, speaking that day, pointed to “the underlying momentum in H2 was clear.”
Risks aren’t exactly hiding in this story. Glencore’s South African ferrochrome operation—key for stainless steel—signaled last week it might pull out of negotiations for cheaper electricity. “The terms and conditions, the way that it is now, I unfortunately will not be in a position to sign,” unit CEO Japie Fullard told reporters.
Glencore has put off layoffs in South Africa until March 31, with Fullard warning that up to 1,500 roles are on the line if talks go nowhere. Next market milestone lands April 30, when Glencore reports first-quarter production. Shares hover around 515 pence; coal holding firm and copper stabilizing could keep support, but any fresh drop in metals—or failure in South African negotiations—could leave the stock vulnerable after its earlier surge this year.
Coking Coal Market:
Linfen low-sulphur coking coal was quoted at 1,460 yuan/mt. Tangshan low-sulphur coking coal was quoted at 1,560 yuan/mt.
Coking coal, mine production was relatively stable and supply was ample. Recently, mine shipments improved, inventory pressure eased somewhat, and end-use demand increased steadily. Coking coal prices may continue to edge higher this week.
Coke Market:
The nationwide average price of first-grade metallurgical coke (dry-quenched) was 1,735 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry-quenched) was 1,595 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of first-grade metallurgical coke (wet-quenched) was 1,390 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (wet-quenched) was 1,300 yuan/mt.
In terms of supply, cost support for coke has strengthened recently, which also led to losses at coke producers. Most coke producers launched the first round of price increases, and downstream procurement demand was currently solid, with smooth shipments from coke producers. In terms of demand, affected by market sentiment, finished steel prices continued to improve, steel mill profits recovered, stimulating steel mills' production enthusiasm, increasing rigid demand for coke and raising procurement willingness. In summary, coke fundamentals have shifted toward a tight balance. In the short term, the coke market may hold up well, and the first round of coke price increases is expected to be implemented.
[SMM Steel]
