By Muflih Hidayaton February 4, 2026
Peak gold scarcity represents one of the most significant structural challenges facing precious metals markets today. As global demand consistently outpaces mine production, the industry confronts fundamental limitations that distinguish gold from conventional commodities. The convergence of declining ore grades, exhausted reserve bases, and accelerating demand from institutional buyers creates conditions rarely observed in commodity markets.
Unlike conventional commodities where higher prices typically stimulate increased production, gold faces inherent limitations that challenge standard economic assumptions. The convergence of declining ore grades, exhausted reserve bases, and accelerating demand from institutional buyers creates conditions rarely observed in commodity markets. These forces operate simultaneously across multiple timeframes, from immediate operational challenges to multi-decade resource depletion cycles.
What Is Peak Gold Scarcity and Why Does It Matter?
Defining Peak Gold in Economic Terms
Peak gold scarcity differs fundamentally from traditional peak resource theories that focus solely on production decline. The contemporary definition centres on whether annual mined gold supply can satisfy global demand without dependence on recycled material. This metric reveals structural imbalances that production figures alone cannot capture.
In 2024, global gold demand reached 4,974.5 tonnes while mine production delivered 3,661.2 tonnes, creating a 1,312.8-tonne deficit that required jewellery recycling to meet market requirements. This gap persists despite record-high production levels, indicating that peak gold scarcity represents a demand-supply imbalance rather than production decline.
The scarcity framework examines whether mining output can independently satisfy consumption without relying on secondary supply sources. When recycled jewellery becomes essential for market equilibrium, it signals that primary production has reached capacity constraints relative to demand growth.
The Mathematics of Depletion vs. Discovery
Historical discovery patterns reveal alarming trends in new deposit identification. During the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, the gold industry discovered at least one deposit containing over 50 million ounces and approximately ten deposits exceeding 30 million ounces each decade.
Since 2000, no deposits of comparable size have been identified, with very few discoveries reaching even 15 million ounces. This discovery drought occurs alongside accelerating reserve depletion at existing operations.
High-grading practices, where mining companies extract the highest-grade accessible areas while leaving lower-grade material, have masked immediate supply problems but accelerated long-term reserve exhaustion.
Discovery Timeline Comparison:
Why Traditional Supply Models Are Failing
Conventional commodity supply models assume that higher prices incentivise increased exploration and production investment, eventually rebalancing markets. Gold markets demonstrate why these models prove inadequate for resources with long development timelines and geological constraints.
Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates that maintaining current production levels requires 44 gold projects currently in development to advance successfully to production. The consultancy acknowledges that achieving this target appears virtually impossible due to permitting delays, capital allocation priorities, and project scope changes.
Mining capital increasingly favours brownfield expansions over greenfield developments, seeking 50% to 70% faster production timelines. While this strategy provides near-term supply additions, it inherently limits production growth to existing reserve bases rather than expanding the industry's resource foundation.
How Severe Is the Current Gold Production Deficit?
Breaking Down the 1,300-Tonne Annual Shortfall
The magnitude of gold market imbalances becomes apparent when examining annual deficit patterns spanning nearly a decade. Production shortfalls persist consistently, requiring jewellery recycling to bridge supply gaps:
These figures demonstrate that deficits range from 358.8 to 1,312.8 tonnes annually, with an average shortfall exceeding 1,000 tonnes per year. Even during 2021, when demand decreased relative to other years, production remained insufficient to satisfy consumption independently.
The Recycling Dependency Problem
Recycled jewellery volumes increased from 1,144.1 tonnes in 2022 to 1,370 tonnes in 2024, representing a 19.7% increase. This acceleration suggests recycling rates respond to price movements rather than providing stable supply security.
As record-high gold prices rise, recycling increases, but this creates an inherently unstable supply foundation dependent on consumer behaviour and economic conditions.
High-Grading: Mining's Short-Term Fix with Long-Term Consequences
High-grading practices have become widespread across the gold mining industry as companies respond to margin pressures and production targets. This strategy involves deliberately mining areas of ore bodies containing the highest-grade material while leaving lower-grade resources in place.
During periods of low metal prices, high-grading provided operational flexibility by maintaining profit margins through selective extraction. However, this approach creates significant long-term consequences by depleting premium reserves at accelerated rates compared to natural ore body extraction patterns.
The practice essentially borrows future production capacity to meet current targets, reducing the productive life of deposits and requiring more aggressive extraction methods to maintain output levels. Industry analysts identify rising operational complexity as the primary risk facing mining companies through 2026, driven by increasingly complex ore bodies, deeper mining requirements, and substantially declined ore grades.
Reserve Quality Deterioration Across Major Producers
Global gold mining faces simultaneous challenges across multiple operational dimensions. Reserves experience ongoing depletion while mines encounter production problems including lower grades, labour disruptions, protests, and regulatory complications.
Key Production Challenges:
These factors compound to create production environments where maintaining output requires progressively higher capital investment and operational sophistication. The combination of declining resource quality and increasing operational challenges suggests that production growth will face persistent headwinds regardless of metal price levels.
What Economic Forces Are Driving Peak Gold Scarcity?
Central Bank Accumulation Patterns and Geopolitical Hedging
Central bank gold purchases represent a fundamental shift in global reserve management strategies, with institutions accumulating approximately 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022. This purchasing pattern reflects strategic diversification away from dollar-denominated assets rather than traditional monetary hedging.
Central Bank Purchase Drivers:
Central bank purchases of 1,000 tonnes represent approximately 27% of total annual mine production, creating structural demand that competes directly with commercial and investment markets. Unlike traditional gold demand, central bank purchases demonstrate relative price insensitivity, continuing even as gold reaches historical highs.
Inflation Protection Demand vs. Mining Supply Constraints
Real yield compression drives institutional gold allocation as central banks implement rate cuts amid rising inflation. When nominal interest rates fall while inflation accelerates, real yields (nominal rates minus inflation) approach zero or turn negative, increasing demand for non-yielding assets that preserve purchasing power.
Société Générale exemplifies institutional response by increasing gold allocation from 7% to 10% while projecting average prices of $3,825 per ounce in 2025 and $4,128 per ounce in 2026. The bank's analysis focuses on USD dominance challenges rather than purely monetary factors.
Inflation-Driven Demand Mechanics:
Currency Diversification Trends Away from Dollar Dominance
Global reserve managers increasingly question USD dominance as mounting government debt burdens strain major economies. Long-term government bond yields rise across developed markets as governments struggle to attract sufficient foreign investment for debt financing.
When governments cannot secure adequate foreign buyers for debt issuance, central banks face pressure to purchase treasury securities directly, similar to quantitative easing programmes implemented during the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic. These interventions typically prove highly inflationary, perpetuating demand for alternative stores of value.
The pattern creates self-reinforcing cycles where currency concerns drive gold demand, while increased gold purchases signal reduced confidence in fiat monetary systems, potentially accelerating diversification trends among other market participants.
Which Geological Factors Signal Imminent Supply Constraints?
The Discovery Drought: No Major Deposits Since 2000
Exploration success rates demonstrate the severity of geological constraints facing the gold industry. The complete absence of major deposit discoveries over the past two decades represents an unprecedented situation in modern mining history.
Historical Discovery Patterns
1970s-1990s Era: Consistent identification of world-class deposits exceeding 50 million ounces, with multiple discoveries per decade supporting production growth and reserve replacement.
2000s-Present: Zero discoveries exceeding 50 million ounces, minimal findings above 15 million ounces, indicating either geological exhaustion of accessible high-grade deposits or inadequate exploration techniques for remaining resources.
This discovery pattern suggests that easily accessible, high-grade gold deposits have been largely identified and developed. Remaining resources likely exist in more challenging geological environments, requiring advanced extraction technologies and substantially higher development costs.
The exploration industry faces a fundamental challenge: traditional geological models and search techniques may prove inadequate for identifying remaining world-class deposits, particularly if such resources exist in previously unexplored geological environments or at depths beyond conventional mining capabilities.
Ore Grade Decline and Operational Complexity Increases
Average ore grades across global gold mining operations continue declining as high-grade zones become exhausted. This trend forces mining companies to process larger volumes of material to maintain equivalent gold production, increasing operational costs and environmental impact.
Grade Decline Implications:
Operational complexity compounds as mines extend to greater depths, encounter more challenging geological conditions, and face increasingly stringent environmental regulations. The combination creates environments where maintaining production requires exponentially higher capital investment relative to output.
Brownfield vs. Greenfield Development Economics
Mining capital allocation increasingly favours brownfield expansions over greenfield developments, seeking to minimise development timelines and reduce exploration risk. Brownfield projects offer 50% to 70% faster production timelines compared to new greenfield developments, providing near-term supply additions while avoiding lengthy exploration and permitting processes.
However, this strategy inherently limits industry growth potential by constraining production expansion to existing reserve bases. Brownfield developments extend mine lives and increase production rates at established operations but cannot address the fundamental shortage of new world-class deposits.
Development Strategy Trade-offs:
The preference for brownfield development reflects industry recognition that greenfield exploration faces diminishing success rates and extended development timelines that may not align with production requirements or investment return expectations.
How Are Mining Companies Responding to Resource Depletion?
The 44-Project Challenge: Wood Mackenzie's Development Requirements
Maintaining current global gold production levels requires successful development of 44 projects currently in various stages of advancement. This requirement represents an unprecedented coordination challenge across the mining industry, involving multiple companies, jurisdictions, and regulatory frameworks.
Wood Mackenzie's head of gold research acknowledges the slim probability of achieving this target, noting that even if all probable projects advanced to production before 2025, the industry would only barely maintain 2019 production levels. The analysis assumes no delays or scope changes, conditions rarely achieved in complex mining developments.
Development Risk Factors:
Capital Allocation Shifts Toward Brownfield Expansions
Mining companies demonstrate clear preference for brownfield expansions over greenfield exploration, reflecting risk management priorities and investor return expectations. This strategic shift provides operational advantages while creating long-term supply limitations.
https://discoveryalert.com.au/peak-gold-scarcity-2026-precious-metals-market/
There’s a lot to be optimistic about in the Energy sector as 2 analysts just weighed in on Expand Energy (EXE – Research Report) and Exxon Mobil (XOM – Research Report) with bullish sentiments.
Expand Energy (EXE)
In a report released today, Devin McDermott from Morgan Stanley maintained a Buy rating on Expand Energy, with a price target of $136.00. The company’s shares closed last Friday at $112.41.
According to TipRanks.com, McDermott is a 5-star analyst with an average return of 9.5% and a 57.1% success rate. McDermott covers the NA sector, focusing on stocks such as Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A, Occidental Petroleum, and Northern Oil And Gas.
The word on The Street in general, suggests a Strong Buy analyst consensus rating for Expand Energy with a $134.71 average price target, a 21.6% upside from current levels. In a report issued on January 19, TipRanks – OpenAI also upgraded the stock to Buy with a $110.00 price target.
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
In a report issued on January 30, Suvro Sarkar from DBS maintained a Buy rating on Exxon Mobil, with a price target of $145.00. The company’s shares closed last Friday at $141.40.
According to TipRanks.com, Sarkar is a 4-star analyst with an average return of 7.1% and a 64.4% success rate. Sarkar covers the NA sector, focusing on stocks such as Occidental Petroleum, Marathon Petroleum, and EOG Resources.
The word on The Street in general, suggests a Moderate Buy analyst consensus rating for Exxon Mobil with a $137.22 average price target, which is a -1.1% downside from current levels. In a report issued on January 29, TipRanks – xAI also upgraded the stock to Buy with a $154.00 price target.
Consolidation continues in the U.S. energy sector. Oil and gas companies Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) and Coterra Energy (NYSE: CTRA) recently announced that they're combining in an all-stock deal. The $58 billion transaction will create the second-largest independent exploration and production (E&P) company in the U.S. by production volumes behind ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP).
Here's a closer look at the deal and what it means for oil stock investors.
Image source: Getty Images.
Drilling down into the deal
Devon Energy is acquiring Coterra Energy in an all-stock deal that will see it exchange 0.7 of its shares for each Coterra share. Existing Devon shareholders will own roughly 54% of the combined company upon closing, which should occur during the second quarter.
The transaction will create a premier large-scale U.S. shale operator. The combined company will have a production base of over 1.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), second only among U.S. independent E&P companies behind ConocoPhillips at over 2.2 million BOE/d. The much larger Devon Energy will have one of the industry's top positions in the world-class Delaware Basin, which will contribute more than half of its production and free cash flow. It will have a more than 10-year inventory of top-tier drilling locations, with a sector-leading amount of sub-$40 inventory. Additionally, it will have operations in the Anadarko, Eagle Ford, Marcellus, and Rockies regions.
The scale advantages
Devon Energy expects its larger scale following the merger will enable it to achieve $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies by the end of 2027. It anticipates delivering these synergies by optimizing its capital program, improving operating margins, and streamlining corporate costs. The company also expects to leverage its combined AI capabilities to become a technology-focused leader in the U.S. oil sector by using AI to optimize operations, capital efficiency, and decision-making at scale.
Larger rival ConocoPhillips has been a big beneficiary of merger synergies following its $22.5 billion all-stock acquisition of Marathon Oil in 2024. The company initially expected to achieve $500 million of merger synergies within the first year of closing that transaction. It boosted the total to over $1 billion by the time it closed the deal and now expects to capture an additional $1 billion in cost and margin enhancements from that acquisition by the end of this year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/58-billion-merger-creating-u-003500551.html
by Ship & Bunker News Team
The seesaw gains and losses pattern of recent oil trading - based mainly on geopolitical tensions - continued in spectacular fashion on Monday, with the commodity plummeting by almost 5 percent.
The drop occurred after U.S. president Donald Trump said Iran was "seriously talking" with Washington – suggesting that a military strike against the Islamic republic (which propelled oil to multi-month highs last week) may be averted.
As of 0325 GMT, Brent was down $2.81, or 4.1 percent, to $66.51 per barrel; at the end of the session, West Texas Intermediate fell by 4.7 percent to near $62 per barrel.
Another sign of hostilities de-escalation regarding Iran was that country's Revolutionary Guards, which reportedly had no plans to conduct live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, as many pundits feared; plus, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi agreed to meet in Istanbul on Friday,
But while those concerned more about averting war than oil prices breathed a sigh of relief, Capital Economics was on hand to remind everyone of the true state of the oil market; it wrote, "Geopolitical risks mask a fundamentally bearish oil market…the historical example of last year's 12-day war [between Israel and Iran], and a well-supplied oil market, will still bear down on Brent crude prices by end-2026."
Meanwhile, Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capita, attempted to explain Monday's massive sell-off: "The move lower looks more like a positioning reset than a fundamental shift.
"With no new supply shock, oil is giving back some risk premium as the market recalibrates after pricing in near-term disruption that just didn't materialize."
In other oil news on Monday, Trump announced he would reduce tariffs on Indian goods after India prime minister Narendra Modi agreed to replace his country's Russian crude imports with oil from Venezuela and the United States.
But media pointed out that it was unclear how long the transition would take, given Venezuela's dilapidated infrastructure and the fact India buys more oil from Russia than Venezuela produces; also, Russian oil has traded at a significant discount – roughly $16 per barrel – compared to other sources of crude, making it a challenge for India to quit.
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Feb 04, 2026, 4:55 AM CST
Equinor (NYSE: EQNR) slashed the amount of share repurchases for 2026 to $1.5 billion from $5 billion last year while it narrowly missed earnings estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025, as higher upstream production couldn’t offset the lower oil and gas prices.
The Norwegian major on Wednesday reported adjusted operating income of $6.2 billion for the fourth quarter, with results affected by lower liquids prices, partially offset by higher production and stronger gas prices in the U.S.
The earnings fell slightly short of the Equinor-provided consensus estimate of $1.562 billion and a $1.59 billion average analyst estimate.
The realized liquids price dropped to $58.6 per barrel in Q4 2025 from $68.5 for the same period of 2024, while the realized European gas price averaged $10.6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), down from $13.5.
These lower prices more than offset a rise in realized North American gas prices and 6% production growth in the quarter.
Equinor’s full-year production grew by 3.4% to a record high of 2.137 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), helped by the newly started-up fields Johan Castberg and Halten East offshore Norway.
Still, the $10 per barrel decline in oil prices and the lower European gas prices prompted recalibration of Equinor’s pace of buybacks for 2026, as widely expected.
Ahead of the earnings release, HSBC expected Equinor to slash annual share repurchases to $2 billion for this year.
To be sure, Equinor said it would continue to use share buybacks for competitive capital distribution, but noted that this year’s repurchases will be “subject to market conditions and balance sheet strength.”
“We are coming out of a supercycle in natural gas,” Equinor’s chief financial officer Torgrim Reitan told Bloomberg Television in an interview on Wednesday.
“This is the first year where we are normalized, where we have to manage within our means and this is a normal level.”
The other European majors could also tweak share buyback programs to the downside as oil prices have dropped significantly from the levels when these repurchases were first announced, analysts say.
Barrick CA06849F1080
Investors in Barrick Gold are currently looking beyond the company's own operations for the next catalyst, focusing instead on the turbulent commodity markets. The prices of gold and copper, which are the primary drivers of Barrick's revenue and profitability, have experienced significant fluctuations recently. This environment has placed heightened importance on the firm's forthcoming hard financial data: its quarterly and annual results.
The market landscape ahead of the earnings release is notably unsettled. According to market analysis, gold has undergone a pronounced correction following a prior rally. For producers like Barrick, this presents a dual challenge. While near-term sentiment may be dampened, it simultaneously brings the stability of their cost structures and production levels into sharper focus.
Copper has also retreated from recently achieved highs. Given that both metals serve as central levers for Barrick's financial performance, the prevailing price levels and their trajectory are expected to be a key topic during the upcoming management discussion.
Key Date: Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results
All attention is fixed on the scheduled release of Barrick's financial statements for the fourth quarter and the complete 2025 fiscal year. The company has announced it will publish these figures on Thursday, February 5, 2026, before the market opens.
Following the release, company leadership will host a live webcast presentation to elaborate on the operational and financial performance. This event will provide the next major opportunity for a detailed assessment of Barrick's operational trends and financial health.
A Notable Transaction from Regulatory Filings
Adding context to the period, a regulatory filing made public yesterday (February 2, 2026) disclosed a significant transaction. Entities closely associated with Barrick, including Nevada Gold Mines LLC, divested their entire position in Gold Royalty Corp. The filing indicated this sale occurred during the three-month period ending December 31, 2025.
In recent trading, Barrick's share price has shown a muted, sideways trend. Currently, the stock is trading at 41.09 Euros, marking a slight gain for the session. The decisive factor, however, will be whether Thursday's financial details can cut through the commodity market "noise" with robust statements on earnings quality and future guidance.
Eldorado Gold has announced its intention to acquire Foran Mining through a merger agreement valued at approximately C$3.8bn ($2.78bn), forming a gold-copper mining company.
This strategic move aims to leverage strong metal prices and growing demand for critical minerals.
The combined entity, which will integrate development assets in Greece and Canada, is projected to commence commercial production by mid-2026, with plans to ensure long-term cash flow and sustained growth.
The transaction will be executed through a court-sanctioned plan of arrangement under the Business Corporations Act (British Columbia) and is expected to conclude in the second quarter of 2026.
Post-merger, Eldorado will hold a 76% ownership stake in the combined entity, while Foran shareholders will retain the remaining 24%.
The strategic move promises significant growth and profitability, with a production target of around 900,000 gold equivalent ounces in 2027.
Expected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) are projected at $2.1bn, with free cash flow reaching $1.5bn in the same year.
These funds are intended to support growth initiatives and shareholder returns.
The merged entity plans to maintain its headquarters in Vancouver, British Columbia, continuing operations under the Eldorado Gold name.
Foran securityholders will vote on the transaction at a special meeting anticipated by 14 April 2026.
Financial advice for Eldorado is being provided by BMO Capital Markets, while RBC Capital Markets delivered an independent fairness opinion.
Legal counsel is being handled by Blake, Cassels & Graydon for Eldorado and Fasken Martineau DuMoulin for its special committee.
On Foran’s side, financial advisory services are being provided by Morgan Stanley Canada and others; Stifel Nicolaus Canada provided a fairness opinion.
Eldorado Gold CEO George Burns said: “This combination creates a stronger gold and copper growth company, defined by near-term cash flow generation and multiple catalysts.
“With Skouries and McIlvenna Bay scheduled to come online in 2026, the combined business is positioned for a step-change in production, cash flow and global relevance.”
In July 2024, Eldorado signed a definitive option agreement with TRU Precious Metals to earn an 80% ownership interest in TRU’s Golden Rose gold-copper project in Newfoundland, Canada.
"Eldorado Gold to acquire Foran Mining in $2.78bn deal" was originally created and published by Mining Technology, a GlobalData owned brand.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eldorado-gold-acquire-foran-mining-102211341.html
Electra Battery Materials has awarded a US$6.1 million (C$8.3 million) contract to EXP Services (EXP). EXP will provide engineering, project management, and construction management services during the construction phase of Electra’s Ontario battery materials refinery project.
Electra Battery Materials specializes in advancing North America’s critical minerals supply chain for lithium-ion batteries. The company focuses on constructing North America’s only cobalt sulfate refinery, aiming to onshore critical minerals refining and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains.
"Partnering with EXP provides Electra with the additional project and construction management support needed as we move into the final phase of refinery development. The team is committed to safety and timely execution as we work to build capacity for a domestic supply of battery-grade materials," Paolo Toscano, vice president of project and engineering, said.
This partnership enhances Electra’s project execution capabilities as the Company advances North America’s first cobalt sulfate refinery toward mechanical completion and commissioning in 2027.
"Electra is focused on commissioning its cobalt sulfate refinery in 2027. As governments and the private sector seek to secure critical minerals and de-risk critical mineral supply chains, Electra’s facility is positioned as a strategic asset to support North America’s military and industrial base," Trent Mell, CEO of Electra, said.
Electra’s cobalt refinery, the only facility of its kind under development in North America, is located in Temiskaming Shores, Ontario. The refinery is entering the final phase of construction, with key civil, mechanical, and structural work completed, including foundations, utilities, the solvent extraction building, and much of the installation of key solvent extraction and crystallizer equipment. Electra’s early works program includes engineering, procurement, and construction planning activities such as finalizing detailed engineering, completing piping and instrumentation diagrams (P&IDs), and conducting HAZOP reviews.
The company has also restarted the procurement process, purchasing key piping and electrical components, including automated valves and control systems. Site preparation and materials handling installations have also advanced, including establishing laydown areas, warehousing, and logistics support for equipment and materials, positioning the project for full construction mobilization in the coming weeks.
Electra targets mechanical completion of the refinery in H1 2027, with commissioning and production to follow in the subsequent months. Once fully operational, the facility expects to produce 5,100 tonnes of cobalt annually in battery-grade cobalt sulfate, with a subsequent expansion to 6,500 tonnes of contained cobalt in sulfate per year.
More information can be found at www.Electrabmc.com and www.Exp.com
Swiss miner Glencore is close to engaging Citi as its lead investment bank on its potential acquisition by Rio Tinto that could create the world’s largest miner worth over $200 billion, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. filed disclosures with the UK Takeover Panel in January, identifying itself as connected with Glencore Plc in relation to a possible deal with Rio Tinto, according to filings made at the London Stock Exchange.
The bank and Glencore declined to comment.
Citi has a long-standing relationship with Glencore, having advised the miner and trader on several major transactions, including its 2011 initial public offering and, more recently, the buyout of Teck Resources’ coal business.
Markets have widely anticipated that Rio Tinto and Glencore, which on January 8 said they were in early merger talks, might seek to extend the current deadline for a possible bid, given the scale and complexity of a potential deal.
Under UK takeover rules, a potential bidder has 28 days from being identified to either announce a firm intention to make an offer or walk away. The current deadline expires on Feb 5, though the parties could request an extension.
Copper at heart of probable Rio bid for Glencore: RBC
Other investment banks are also vying for advisory roles on the deal, the sources said, without naming them.
Rio Tinto appointed JP Morgan, Evercore and Macquarie to advise on the deal, according to people aware of the development, Reuters reported earlier this month.
The advisory roles on a deal of this magnitude are highly coveted as bankers jostle for a share of potentially more than $100 million in advisory fees.
(By Divya Rajagopal and Clara Denina; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
Molybdenum market update on February 2, 2026
On Monday, the domestic molybdenum market overall maintained a relatively strong operation.
With downstream users basically maintaining rigid demand procurement and suppliers holding strong reluctance to sell while maintaining bullish sentiment, the center of gravity of many product prices shifted slightly upward, though actual transaction volume remained limited. Today, molybdenum concentrate, ferromolybdenum, and ammonium heptamolybdate prices increased by approximately RMB 10 per tonne-degree, RMB 1,000/ton, and RMB 2,000/ton respectively. Recently, steel enterprises entering the market to tender for ferromolybdenum include Nanjing Iron & Steel, China First Heavy Changzhou New Materials, Jiangsu Yonggang, Zhongnan Steel, Shougang Group, etc. It is understood that difficulty in increasing market spot supply combined with relatively strong production cost support jointly bolstered suppliers' firm quotations.
On the news front: Data from the World Steel Association show that in December 2025, global crude steel production in 70 countries/regions included in World Steel Association statistics totaled 139.6 million tons, decreased by 3.7% year-on-year. Among them, Africa’s crude steel production was 1.90 million tons, decreased by 0.3% year-on-year; Asia and Oceania crude steel production was 99.70 million tons, decreased by 6.3% year-on-year; EU (27 countries) crude steel production was 9.90 million tons, increased by 3.9% year-on-year; other European countries crude steel production was 3.80 million tons, increased by 13.8% year-on-year; Middle East crude steel production was 5.30 million tons, increased by 13.9% year-on-year; North America crude steel production was 9.00 million tons, decreased by 0.4% year-on-year; Russia and other CIS countries + Ukraine crude steel production was 6.90 million tons, decreased by 2.7% year-on-year; South America crude steel production was 3.20 million tons, increased by 1.2% year-on-year.
Price of molybdenum products on February 2, 2026
http://news.chinatungsten.com/en/tungsten-news/174488-tpn-11943.html
Molybdenum market update on February 3, 2026
The domestic molybdenum market overall maintained stable operation. Against the background of relatively balanced supply and demand and no major news releases in the market, product prices basically consolidated within a narrow range, with limited actual transaction volume. Today, molybdenum concentrate, ferromolybdenum, and ammonium heptamolybdate prices were approximately RMB 4,070 per tonne-degree, RMB 265,000/ton, and RMB 257,000/ton respectively.
From the supply side, the spot supply of market raw materials was average, mainly due to the continued intensification of environmental crackdowns on illegal operations, high energy prices, and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, among other overlapping factors, resulting in some molybdenum production enterprises reducing output to some extent; with a relatively large number of previous orders, holders recently focused mainly on delivering earlier orders, leading to relatively weak initiative in active shipments.
From the demand side, market inquiries were relatively low, with trading activity on the lower side, mainly attributed to the approaching Spring Festival holiday increasing market uncertainty, leading to cautious procurement willingness among downstream users; downstream enterprises had basically completed phased stockpiling in the previous period, resulting in fewer new orders in the short term; terminal consumers and some intermediate links had relatively tight liquidity, further restraining the procurement pace.
On the news front: Data from the World Steel Association show that in December 2025, China's crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, decreased by 10.3% year-on-year; India's crude steel output was 14.80 million tons, increased by 10.1% year-on-year; the United States crude steel output was 6.90 million tons, increased by 3.6% year-on-year; Japan's crude steel output was 6.60 million tons, decreased by 4.8% year-on-year; Russia's estimated crude steel output was 5.80 million tons, decreased by 4.4% year-on-year; South Korea's crude steel output was 5.20 million tons, decreased by 2.4% year-on-year; Turkey's crude steel output was 3.50 million tons, increased by 18.5% year-on-year; Iran's estimated crude steel output was 3.00 million tons, increased by 16.2% year-on-year; Germany's crude steel output was 2.70 million tons, decreased by 0.2% year-on-year; Brazil's crude steel output was 2.60 million tons, decreased by 1.9% year-on-year.
