Feb. 02, 2026 10:27 AM ET
Summary
We actually still have this coin.
Ben-Schonewille/iStock via Getty Images
We recently wrote about Silver bullion and mentioned that we used iShares Silver Bullion Trust (SLV) to hedge our long bullion position (around $68 adjusted). Obviously that move turned out to be premature, and we left quite a few dollars on the table. But we got lucky, very lucky, as we delivered our large bullion for sale (near $106/oz spot) and then stayed short SLV. Yesterday, we sold puts at different strikes against the short positions and will be completely out if SLV is under $65 over the next few months. Always better to be lucky than good, and we got very lucky here. We continue the story today in light of the 8-9 Sigma move in Silver futures.
The Move
It is fairly rare to see a move like this in a commodity market. Unlike stocks (which can lose far more, especially if fraud comes to light), commodities don't give you this. Usually.
Data by YCharts
At the trough, the decline nearly hit 35%!
In our experience, 99% of the newly minted silver bulls only focus on conspiracy theories, and this was catnip for them. First up was the website that makes money selling end-of-the-world theories and emergency food (in case you buy those theories).
Zero (world is coming to an end today, everyday) hedge
Next up are self-proclaimed gurus who have been calling for $10,000 Gold since 2014.
X
In other words, Silver goes up on fundamentals and goes down on manipulation. But we love the fact that the person telling people to buy is also calling them the "dumb money." But what really happened?
Do Technicals Matter?
At its absolute peak, Silver traded at 78% over the monthly Bollinger band.
TradingView
For relevant context, you can see Silver during the 2011 surge in the same chart, and back then it traded at less than 20% over the upper Bollinger band. Here is a better screenshot from the same chart.
TradingView
So people keep forgetting just how outlandish the "up-move" was. The interesting part today is that even after the selloff, Silver is higher above its monthly Bollinger band (22%) than it was at the absolute peak in 2011 (19%).
What About The Shanghai Price Disconnect?
Friday morning saw Silver investors fully focused on one thing and one thing only. The difference in price between COMEX and the Shanghai Exchange.
X
In case people were not aware, Shanghai is in a different time zone, and there is very little trading late into Friday and through Saturday 2:30 AM (Shanghai time), when trading stops. We were not able to find evidence that the trading was prematurely halted, but it is possible that bid-ask spreads widened so much that the trading was not effective anymore. Add to that, China itself was working hard that morning to reduce Silver speculation.
China suspended trading of five commodity funds on Friday to curb investment mania in gold, silver and oil and reduce underlying risks amid geopolitical tensions.
The only public fund investing in silver futures in mainland China, UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund, a listed open-ended fund (LOF), will be suspended for the whole day on Friday, the second such halt since January 22.
The trading halt also spread to oil LOFs, four of which were halted for an hour up to 10.30am on Friday. Before the halts, fund-management firms had issued multiple alerts about high premium risks.
- Source: SHMP
Absorb that, and the most important thing after that.
The fund has traded at unsustainable premiums—around 36 percent over Shanghai Futures Exchange silver contracts—driven by speculative demand, social media hype, and limited alternatives for Chinese investors to gain silver exposure.
- Source: FXLeaders
Our own calculations suggested the fund was trading at a 64% premium when halted, so there are some serious levels of crazy happening in China. The difference might come from what was used to calculate Silver price by the fund and by us. In either case, the key takeaway here is that there are extreme, extreme levels of speculation in China, and shockingly, unlike what conspiracy theory folks would have you believe, it is for "paper silver" i.e., a fund holding futures contracts. We think all of this resolves in the next week, likely through a lot of volatility.
Outlook & Verdict
The COMEX margin hikes will serve to curb excess speculation, and you can expect China to pull all the stops as well. While most authors in the West see COMEX as "bad" and China as "good," the reality is that China is far more invested in lower prices than the US. The key reason is that China is home to more than 90% of the world's solar production capacity. That is a huge source of employment, and currently, without exaggeration, we can say that the entire solar industry is unprofitable at $50/oz.
This week, spot silver prices surged to over $93 per ounce, setting a new record high and having more than tripled over the past year. Data indicates that the trace amounts of silver used in cells now constitute 29% of a module's total cost, a stark increase from just 3.4% in 2023 and 14% last year. BNEF analyst Yali Jiang stated, "Surging commodity prices are imposing irresistible cost pressures on solar manufacturers. This could drive up module prices, as manufacturers have almost no room to absorb additional costs after two years of depressed market prices." InfoLink Consulting reported that in the world's largest market, Chinese module manufacturers raised prices this week to above 0.8 yuan per watt, an increase of 1.4%–3.8% from last week, to reflect the higher silver costs; consequently, the price of a typical 500-watt module reached approximately 400 yuan ($57). Several leading solar companies, including Trina Solar Co., Ltd., warned this week that they still anticipate net losses in 2025.
- Source: iTiger
So if you thought COMEX was coming down hard on you nascent bulls, just wait till China brings the hammer down and forces all these Silver futures locked in these ETFs to liquidate. Silver usage in solar panels is close to 30% of global demand, and we will shortly write on how the acceleration away from Silver consumption in those has begun and why it will ultimately be a big negative for the commodity's pricing. For now, focus on the fact that most people who have entered the market are not here for physical bullion returns. They bought the highs on FOMO and likely went via 2X leveraged ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (AGQ) or options. Those options force market makers to buy the underlying, and then everyone suddenly starts confusing a bull market with brains. A 20% plus drop from a major top in one day also happened when Silver was just as overbought. In 1980.
X-Mark Ungewitter
Silver proceeded to drop another 70% after that one-day drop. After a 5 sigma move, the next 10 days can be very volatile and might provide some excellent trading opportunities.
X-Kim Benni
We will look into the impact of Kevin Warsh's appointment on the precious metals in a separate article.
Please note that this is not financial advice. It may seem like it sounds like it, but surprisingly, it is not. Investors are expected to do their own due diligence and consult a professional who knows their objectives and constraints. Most of our articles are not written for “buy and hold” investors. Our articles are not written for investors who ignore capital preservation while focusing only on yield.
By Brianna Morris-Grant
CBA, NAB, Westpac and ANZ are Australia's Big Four banks. (ABC News: Alistair Kroie)
Australia's major banks have begun announcing rate rises following the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to hike interest rates for the first time in four years.
RBA lifts interest rates by 0.25pc
Reserve Bank of Australia
RBA lifts interest rates by 0.25 per cent, to 3.85 per cent, after inflation rose "materially" in second half of 2025.
The cash rate rose by 0.25 of a percentage point, meaning it now sits at 3.85 per cent.
The Commonwealth Bank announced it would increase home loan variable interest rates by 0.25 per cent per annum.
The change will go into effect on February 13.
CBA's retail banking group executive, Angus Sullivan, said: "We know that interest rate changes can create additional pressure for our home loan customers, which is why we're focused on providing support and helping them stay in control of their finances."
Westpac also announced it would increase its home loan variable interest rates by 0.25 per cent per annum, with the change to go into effect on February 17.
Westpac's consumer chief executive, Carolyn McCann, said the company understood an interest rate increase could "add pressure to household budgets".
"For those who need support, we are ready to help," she said.
"We have a range of tools and dedicated teams ready to assist anyone who is concerned about their repayments or financial situation."
She added that the majority of Westpac customers were "ahead on repayments".
"[This] puts them in a stronger position to navigate this change," she said.
NAB announced it would also increase its standard variable home loan interest rate by 0.25 per cent per annum, effective February 13.
The bank said in a statement, "around 80 per cent of customers" had chosen not to reduce home loan repayments after rates were cut in February 2025.
Many, according to NAB's executive for personal banking, Paul Carter, have adapted over time.
"Customers have shown that paying above the minimum can help build a repayment buffer, providing valuable breathing room when rates rise while helping to reduce interest over the life of the loan," he said.
ANZ also announced it would increase interest rates for variable rate home loan customers.
"ANZ's Australian home loans will increase by 0.25% p.a., effective 13 February 2026," it said in a statement.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-03/banks-respond-to-rba-interest-rate-hike/106300676
US President Donald Trump's decision to lower reciprocal tariffs on India from 50% to 18% has been met with a sense of relief in Asia's third-largest economy, even as precise details on the agreement remain sketchy.
India paid the highest tariffs in the world after Trump raised import duties on Indian goods from 25% to 50% in August last year, saying Delhi's purchase of discounted Russian oil was helping fund Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.
After his call with India's prime minister on Monday, Trump claimed Narendra Modi had "agreed to stop buying Russian oil, and buy much more from the United States, and potentially Venezuela".
India has not commented on these exact claims, but Modi thanked Trump "on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this wonderful announcement", saying he hoped to take the partnership with the US to "unprecedented heights".
The patch-up comes after Trump's trade war soured carefully cultivated relations between Washington and Delhi, with exports from India to the US falling sharply across key job-creating sectors such as textiles, seafood and jewellery.
Trump's tariffs also forced a notoriously protectionist government in Delhi to expedite a flurry of other trade agreements and diversify its export markets.
Last week, India and the EU announced "the mother of all trade deals", eliminating tariff on 80-90% of goods. It was Delhi's ninth free trade agreement in four years, as the deal with Washington showed no signs of progress.
The long-delayed announcement by Trump was, as expected, widely welcomed by Indian industry.
"While the devil is in the details, it removes a hanging sword over the rupee, equity and rates market. Let us hope that it is a win-win deal for both the countries," said Nilesh Shah, a fund manager.
Oil prices slumped by 5% early on Monday from a five-month high at the end of last week, after the most recent tensions between the United States and Iran appeared to have eased.
As of 7:09 a.m. ET on Monday, the Brent Crude international benchmark was back to $65 per barrel, down from $70 it hit last week when U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that a “massive armada” of U.S. Navy ships is headed to the Persian Gulf.
Brent Crude prices had slipped by 4.83% to $65.99 on Monday morning, while the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was trading down by 5.11% at $61.92.
Last week, markets reacted to the renewed tension in the world’s most important oil-producing and exporting region, and oil prices soared.
However, this weekend, President Trump said that he believes Iran is “seriously” talking with the U.S., adding he hopes that negotiations could lead to an “acceptable” deal.
President Trump told a reporter aboard Air Force One that he certainly can’t tell them if a military strike is still an option.
“But we do have very big, powerful ships heading in that direction,” President Trump said, but added, “I hope they negotiate something that's acceptable.”
“They should do that, but I don't know that they will. But they are talking to us. Seriously talking to us,” the president said, referring to Iran.
With the risk premium unwinding, oil prices retreated on Monday from the five-month highs seen last Thursday.
“A broader correction across financial markets has added to the downward momentum,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Monday.
According to Saxo Bank’s analysts, “With the President facing weak poll numbers, a military escalation that risks pushing gasoline prices sharply higher appears unlikely ahead of the November midterm elections, where affordability and his time in office are set to dominate voter focus.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Summary:
Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods told analysts on Friday that the company has the technology that would be needed to produce higher cost barrels from Venezuela.
While he had previously called the South American country “uninvestable” in remarks earlier this month at a White House meeting that later drew a rebuke from President Donald Trump, Woods said that he believed the U.S. administration is committed to making the changes needed to attract and secure investment. The company departed the country nearly 20 years ago after its assets there were nationalized.
“If you look at what they’re currently focused on, it’s stabilizing the country, kick-starting the economy, and then ultimately transitioning into a more representative, democratically elected government. I think those are the right objectives that the government’s working on for the benefit of Venezuela,” he said, adding that the company remained willing to send a technical team to visit the country.
Woods said during a fourth-quarter earnings call that Exxon has the technology needed to produce higher cost barrels from the country known for its heavy crude.
“We have that with the work that we’ve done up in Canada and the technology organization’s focus on developing heavy oil resources, we think we bring an advantaged approach that will lead to lower-cost production, higher recovery, and therefore more economic barrels onto the marketplace,” Woods said.
Potential changes in Venezuela could create a more favourable operating environment near Guyana, even as parts of the Stabroek oil block remain under force majeure due to a border dispute, Woods added.
https://journalrecord.com/2026/02/02/exxon-technology-venezuela-high-cost-crude/
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released projections indicating little or no growth in US oil production for 2026. While still near 2025’s record level of 13.6 million barrels per day (b/d), it’s a notable shift from the expansionary pattern of the past few years. For 2027, a slight decrease is expected. The Permian Basin, Alaska, and offshore production in the Gulf may increase slightly, but these gains are projected to be offset by decreases in other areas.
The issue is certainly not available supply. There are billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of gas in the ground, with much more yet to be found. The EIA estimated, as of 2023, that there were some 21 billion barrels of oil in the Permian Basin alone, just counting “proved” reserves. In addition, only a fraction is produced using current methods, and future technological advances will ultimately generate greater yields.
New wells coming online (including completing ones that are drilled, but not yet producing) is essential to increasing total production, as decline curves (the falloff in output from a well over time) can be fairly steep. Rig counts in Texas are about 229, down from 277 a year ago. A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that 39% of oil and gas executives expected capital spending to decrease in 2026, with many of those anticipating significant forbearance. Another 24% expect to maintain current levels, with 37% seeing increases.
The essential issue is simply the fact that the current price level is not incentivizing as much activity as in the past. Survey data from the Dallas Fed indicates that oil prices needed to profitably drill a new well in the Midland or Delaware areas of the Permian Basin or the Eagle Ford average about $61-$62 per barrel, with higher requirements in other areas. It can take $45 per barrel just to cover costs for existing wells. The EIA is projecting oil prices to fall from a 2025 average of $65 per barrel to $52 or less in 2026.
Keep in mind, however, that this sector is highly volatile and impacted by myriad global factors. As a result, things can quickly and unexpectedly change. Just a few years ago, prices exceeded $120 per barrel. We could see significant increases if tensions in the Middle East escalate, OPEC+ cuts supply, or uncertainty in the global economy decreases sufficiently to spur faster economic growth. Once we are past the recent spate of adverse conditions, expanding populations, emerging economies, and rapid adoption of energy-intensive technologies will require substantial additional resources, and forecasts indicate that the need for conventional fuels will increase for decades to come. Stay safe!
Dr. M. Ray Perryman is President and Chief Executive Officer of The Perryman Group (www.perrymangroup.com), which has served the needs of over 3,000 clients over the past four decades.
https://thehendersonnews.com/2026/02/02/the-economist-slowing-the-flow/
By Charles Kennedy - Feb 02, 2026, 9:00 AM CST
Four OPEC+ producers that have been pumping crude above their respective quotas have filed with the OPEC Secretariat updated compensation plans through June 2026, OPEC said on Monday.
OPEC members Iraq and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as well as the non-OPEC producers of the OPEC+ pact, Kazakhstan and Oman, have submitted their updated plans to cut more output between January and June as compensation for previously exceeding their quotas.
The UAE will be compensating small volumes of between 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 53,000 bpd each month through June.
Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia, will have between 79,000 bpd and 140,000 bpd to compensate each month, while Oman’s 5,000-8,000 bpd monthly compensation cut is negligible for the OPEC+ output.
Kazakhstan, however, has its work cut out for it as its compensation schedule ranges from 503,000 bpd in January to as much as 669,000 bpd in June.
Kazakhstan boosted its crude oil production last year and has been pumping well above its quota, although it continues to reaffirm its commitment to the OPEC+ deal.
Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov has said that the country has raised its output since January 2025, thanks to the Chevron-led expansion at the giant Tengiz field.
“At the moment, we cannot yet fit into those compensation schedules, but Kazakhstan is taking all possible efforts to comply with the OPEC+ agreement, and we remain committed to it,” Akkenzhenov said in October 2025.
Lately, Kazakhstan’s oil production has dropped, but the decline didn’t have anything to do with the OPEC+ agreement and compensation efforts.
Kazakhstan’s oil production dropped by 230,000 bpd in December, with output averaging 1.522 million bpd, down from 1.759 million bpd in November. The key reasons behind the decline were the forced suspension of Single Point Mooring 3 (SPM-3) at the CPC terminal on the Russian Black Sea coast following a drone attack, and adverse winter weather conditions in the Black Sea.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Overproducers-Update-Compensation-Cuts.html
TOKYO, Feb 2 : Japanese utility Tokyo Electric Power said on Monday it has begun seeking potential alliance partners as part of its restructuring efforts to improve its financial situation and pursue growth.
The company, known as Tepco, said last Monday that it plans to cut about 3.1 trillion yen ($20 billion) in costs over 10 years through restructuring, while seeking alliances to advance reforms and capture demand from data centers.
The period for seeking partners runs through March 31.
Tepco, the operator of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant that suffered one of the world's worst nuclear disasters in 2011, faces mounting costs for decommissioning, the clean-up operation and compensation. It continues to rely on government funding to cover disaster-related costs.
President Tomoaki Kobayakawa said last week that the company would seek alliances to pursue bold reforms that achieve both its responsibility to Fukushima and economic growth.
The partnership could lead to a major reorganization of Tepco, according to local media.
In January 2026, silver production increased by about 0.6% MoM and 9.91% YoY compared to January 2025.
Regarding production cuts, lead smelters in Guangdong, Yunnan, and Gansu, as well as a copper smelter in Hubei, saw reduced output due to maintenance; meanwhile, two smelters in Henan and one in Guangxi experienced a decline in silver ingot production due to raw material grade issues.
In terms of production increases, a lead smelter in Henan, after adding a new primary lead production line, improved its precious metal recovery rate, leading to a slight increase in January production to normal levels. Lead and copper smelters in Jiangxi and Yunnan, which had undergone maintenance previously, also resumed operations and slightly increased production in January. Additionally, smelters in Shandong and Hunan reported that, due to the rise in silver prices in January, they reprocessed lower-grade substandard materials from their inventory, thereby increasing production.
Looking ahead to February, silver ingot supply is expected to continue with positive growth, with a projected MoM increase of about 2.78%. The main driver for this growth will be smelters that completed maintenance in January and are ramping up to regular production in February. Furthermore, some smelters using crude silver recovery as raw material indicated that the silver-containing raw materials recovered in January may support further slight production increases in February.
Korea Zinc shares are plunging more than 10% in early trading as international prices have plunged in a single day.
As of 9:50 a.m. on the 2nd, Korea Zinc's stock price was trading at 1,689,000 won, down 195,000 won (10.35%) from the previous day.
The stock price plunged 12.37% during the day to KRW 1.651 million, expanding its fall.
The plunge in stock prices is attributed to a plunge in international silver prices on the 30th of last month (local time). According to Reuters, spot silver prices plunged more than 30% from the previous session, falling to around $78 an ounce.
As the price of silver, which was classified as a safe asset, plunged, it is interpreted that profit-making sales poured out across related stocks. Analysts say that the shock was inevitable even for Korea Zinc's stock price, which has a high proportion of silver sales.
Markets believe that U.S. monetary policy uncertainty acted as a catalyst for a sharp drop in silver prices. Concerns over tightening appear to have been highlighted as former President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, who is classified as a relatively "hawkish" (currency tightening), as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman candidate.
(Bloomberg) - - Copper partially clawed back losses after a heavy sell-off in Asian trading hours, amid signs that buyers in China who’ve been put off by high prices are dipping back into the market.
Contracts fell about 2% on the London Metal Exchange, after earlier dropping as much as 5.7% to $12,414.50 a ton. Other base metals also posted big losses, with tin falling as much as 11.3% and nickel falling 8.1%.
Copper surged to records along with other metals last month as bullish Chinese investors piled into commodities amid doubts about the dollar and a shift away from currencies and sovereign bonds. But manufacturers in the country cut back purchases sharply during the rally, and when they will step back in and buy is now a key question for investors.
Prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose back above 100,000 yuan a ton as the night-trading session got underway at 9pm local time on Monday, after closing down by the daily limit earlier in the day.
“The near-term correction will provide a good window to buy,” Li Yaoyao, an analyst at Xinhu Futures Co., wrote in a note.
Copper is entering a “supercycle” of sustained high prices and could trade between 100,000 yuan ($14,385) and 150,000 yuan a ton this year in Shanghai, according to Xinhu.
Monday’s volatile trading came on the heels of a heady year for copper, with futures surging more than 40% in 2025 following mine disruptions, speculation about demand from the energy transition, and the possibility of US import tariffs.
The latest outsized moves surprised seasoned observers, with some traders exiting the market, citing heightened risks and a disconnect with softening physical markets. But inside China, talk of dip-buying still filled chat groups and social media over the weekend and analysts are not ruling out another swing higher.
“Some funds are exiting ahead of the Lunar New Year to avoid risk amid such high volatility,” said Gao Yin, an analyst at Shuohe Asset Management Co., referring to the annual holiday that starts later this month. “But the medium- to long-term logic behind this round of rally remains intact. There is a unanimous, bullish consensus among Chinese investors.”
January was the busiest month ever for metals trading on the Shanghai bourse, and copper volume surged on Friday to a record amid the sharp selloff. Copper is viewed as an attractive bet because of a strong demand outlook and tight supplies, but last week’s spike came as manufacturing activity in China stalled.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/metals-slump-speed-rout-puts-101308926.html
The enormity of the cost of recent flooding is being tallied by Cloncurry Shire Council.
Mayor Greg Campbell has hosted the Prime Minister, Premier and Transport Minister over the current monsoon.
The losses include tens of thousands of head of cattle and mineral exports through the Port of Townsville.
Evolution Mining’s Ernest Henry operation to the north of Cloncurry (pictured above) was among the worst hit.
“It had a house-of-cards effect throughout the mine’s production chain,” Cr Campbell said.
“The pit and underground was flooded, there wasn’t enough power to run the mill and the fall off in concentrate production affected the operation of the Glencore copper smelter in Mount Isa.
“This in turn affected production of the Dyno Nobel acid plant which feeds the company’s Phosphate Hill plant south of Mount Isa near Dajarra.
“So that’s the first time in 446 days the plant at Phosphate Hill had been shut. This in turn affects Townsville because product is not there to go through the port.
“This is how interwoven industry in the North West is. Every new bit of feed, especially to the smelter, is important. There is that diversity of feed into Mount Isa, but whatever can get milled, whether it’s toll treating or your own, we see as a benefit.
“And the council is committed through a lot of our infrastructure as well. It’s something where we work together with miners and graziers to make sure that infrastructure is as good as possible.”
Cr Campbell said the downtime caused by flooding was a major issue in the viability of mining in the North West.
“Especially for a mine, for example, that needs to be a 24-7, 365-day operation. Using the Eva project as an example, they’re going to need a hundred million litres of diesel a year to keep that site lit and running.
“The volume that they’re going to have to store extra to allow for two, three, four weeks of road closures a year just adds to the capital cost.
“But it also goes to that bigger piece of CopperString (2032) and getting these mines connected to the national electricity market where they don’t need that volume of diesel storage.
“They then won’t need to put a hundred million litres of diesel on the Flinders Highway, which just exacerbates the damage and then the backlog at times when it is cut.”
Other measures taken to address the flooding include MMG Dugald River transporting lead and zinc concentrate by road to Townsville in half-height containers.
Otherwise, Glencore transports copper anode grown at the smelter in Mount Isa to Copper Refineries Limited in Townsville by rail exclusively.
South32’s Cannington operation in the neighbouring McKinlay Shire generally continues to operate by stockpiling product despite being cut off by road and rail.
https://industryqld.com.au/cost-of-flooding-in-north-west-brought-to-light/
MINING.COM Editor | February 2, 2026 | 3:56 am
The move would be Washington’s latest bid to counter what it sees as Chinese price manipulation. (Image courtesy of The White House.)
US President Donald Trump is preparing to launch a strategic stockpile of critical minerals backed by $12 billion, aiming to protect manufacturers from supply disruptions as the US accelerates efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese metals.
The White House confirmed on Monday the start of “Project Vault,” which would combine $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion loan from the US Export-Import Bank to buy and store minerals for automakers, technology companies and other industrial users.
The model mirrors the country’s emergency oil reserve but focuses instead on materials such as gallium and cobalt used in products ranging from smartphones to jet engines.
The project spans the automotive, aerospace and energy sectors and underscores Trump’s broader push to rewire US supply chains away from China, the world’s dominant producer and processor of critical minerals.
More than a dozen companies have reportedly signed on, including General Motors Co., Stellantis NV, Boeing Co., Corning Inc., GE Vernova Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google. Commodities traders Hartree Partners LP, Traxys North America LLC and Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. will handle purchases to fill the stockpile.
“Project Vault is a clear signal that US critical‑mineral policy has moved to deployment,” US Critical Materials chairman, Harvey Kaye, told MINING.COM. “It says unequivocally that secure supplies of rare earths and heavy minerals like gallium are now treated as strategic infrastructure for our economy and defense industrial base, to establish US sovereignty.”
Kaye noted that for companies like US Critical Materials, it confirms that high-grade domestic supply is no longer optional.
Beyond defence
Trump is scheduled to meet Monday with GM chief executive officer Mary Barra and mining entrepreneur Robert Friedland, representing both consumers and producers of critical minerals.
While the US already maintains a national stockpile for defence purposes, it lacks a comparable reserve for civilian industry. That gap has taken on urgency as the Pentagon ramps up its own accelerated stockpiling campaign, targeting up to $1 billion in mineral acquisitions in the near term.
The drive is supported by Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which allocates $7.5 billion for critical minerals, including $2 billion to expand the national stockpile by 2027, $5 billion for supply-chain investments and $500 million for a Pentagon credit program to encourage private projects.
The administration has also taken the unusual step of investing directly in domestic mining companies to boost US rare earths production and processing.
Last month, a bipartisan group of US lawmakers introduced a bill to create a $2.5 billion stockpile of critical minerals, a move aimed at stabilizing market prices and encouraging domestic mining and refining.
Senior administration officials told Bloomberg News Project Vault was oversubscribed, citing investor confidence in the credit quality of participating manufacturers, their long-term purchase commitments and the backing of the US export-credit agency. Under the plan, companies can draw down their allotted materials as long as they replenish them, with full access permitted during major supply disruptions.
Manufacturers that commit to buying set quantities at fixed prices will also agree to repurchase the same amounts at the same cost in the future, a structure the administration says will help stabilize prices and dampen market volatility.
https://www.mining.com/trump-plans-12b-minerals-vault-to-cut-china-reliance/
South Korean steelmaker Pohang Iron and Steel Co. (POSCO) has announced its consolidated financial results for 2025.
The company reported an operating profit of KRW 1.83 trillion ($1.26 billion), compared to an operating profit of KRW 2.17 trillion in 2024. In 2025, POSCO’s sales revenue decreased by 4.9 percent year on year to KRW 69.09 trillion ($47.66 billion), while its net profit amounted to KRW 504 billion ($349.68 million), decreasing by 46.8 percent compared to a net profit of KRW 948 billion in 2024. The company’s profit fell due to raw material cost hikes and declines in production and sales volumes.
Last year, POSCO produced 32.49 million mt of crude steel, falling by two percent compared to the previous year, while its finished steel sales decreased by 1.6 percent year on year to 32.27 million mt.
The company has begun construction of its HyREX plant in Pohang and commissioned an electric arc furnace in Gwangyang to offer a timely response to carbon-reduced steel demand. The HyREX plant is scheduled to be commissioned in early 2028.
Total steel imports for the month fell by 5.2% m/m
According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), US steelmakers reduced their imports of rolled steel by 18.7% year-on-year – to 1.08 million tonnes in November 2025.
Total steel imports (rolled products and semi-finished products) for the month fell by 5.2% month-on-month to 1.64 million tons.
The largest volume of imports was accounted for by line pipes – 108,040 tons (+31.6% month-on-month), tinplate – 107.92 thousand tons (+17.5% month-on-month), hot-dip galvanized rolled products – 102.28 thousand tons (-28% month-on-month), and products for the oil industry – 98.89 thousand tons (-24.9% month-on-month). Finished products accounted for 66.2% of total imports for the month.
In January-November, the US reduced its imports of rolled products by 15.4% compared to the same period in 2024, to 17.5 million tons. Total steel imports amounted to 23.66 million tons (-11.5% y/y). The main volumes of supplies are accounted for by products for the oil industry – 1.76 million tons (+15.9% y/y), hot-dip galvanized rolled steel – 1.64 million tons (-41.8% y-o-y) and cold-rolled flat rolled steel – 1.35 million tons (-24.8% y-o-y).
The main sources of steel imports to the US in January-November 2025 were Canada, Brazil, and Mexico – 4.29 million tons (-28.9% y/y), 3.87 million tons (-11.8% y-o-y), and 2.69 million tons (-15.8% y-o-y), respectively.
As reported by GMK Center, in 2024, the US increased its imports of rolled steel by 3.7% compared to 2023, to 22.5 million tons. Total steel imports (rolled products and semi-finished products) for the year increased by 2.5% y-o-y to 28.86 million tons. The main sources of steel imports to the US in 2024 were Canada, Brazil, and Mexico – 6.56 million tons, 4.49 million tons, and 3.52 million tons, respectively.
Steel production in the US in 2024 decreased by 2.4% compared to 2023, to 79.5 million tons. Global steel production for the year amounted to 1.84 billion tons, down 0.9% year-on-year. The US is among the ten largest steel-producing countries in the world according to World Steel.
Wind turbines of Vestas at the Port of Odense, Denmark. The EU is struggling to diversify its imports of materials needed for its key industries.
BRUSSELS - The European Union must step up its efforts to secure supplies of critical raw materials by 2030 if it wants to break its dependence on foreign countries and meet its climate goals, a watchdog warned on Feb 2.
Raw materials such as lithium, nickel and cobalt are essential for electronic goods such as batteries and wind turbines and needed for the EU’s green transition.
Brussels wants more European production to avoid a repeat of the supply shocks seen during the Covid pandemic or after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It also seeks to challenge Beijing’s stranglehold on critical materials which threatens key EU industries.
But the 27-country bloc is struggling to diversify its imports of the key materials, ramp up domestic production, and recycling is “still in its infancy”, according to a report by the European Court of Auditors (ECA).
The EU needs to secure the supply of such minerals to meet its energy and climate goals – with a target of climate neutrality by 2050.
The study analysed the EU’s efforts after the adoption of the Critical Raw Materials Act in 2024, aimed at ensuring the long-term secure supply of 26 minerals necessary for Europe’s energy transition.
The law set several non-binding targets:
The auditors said “there is still a long way to go to meet the targets”.
When the law was adopted, domestic mining capacity for the strategic raw materials accounted for around eight per cent of the 27-country EU’s annual consumption.
Meanwhile EU processing accounted for 24 per cent of its needs and 12 per cent of its recycling capacity, the ECA said.
For example, China supplies 97 per cent of the EU’s magnesium, used in hydrogen-generating electrolysers while Turkey provides 99 per cent of the bloc’s boron, used in solar panels.
Meanwhile, Chile supplies 79 per cent of the EU’s lithium, used in batteries for electric cars.
“We are now dangerously dependent on a handful of countries outside the EU for the supply of these materials,” said the ECA’s Keit Pentus-Rosimannus.
“It is therefore vital for the EU to up its game and reduce its vulnerability in this area,” Ms Pentus-Rosimannus said.
Brussels has focused on diversifying imports through strategic partnerships on raw materials. But despite signing 14 of them, the ECA found imports fell between 2020 and 2024 for around half of the raw materials examined. AFP
