(Alliance News) - Central Asia Metals PLC on Wednesday said copper, zinc and lead production has fallen in the nine months to date, due to challenges posed by a new mining system at Sasa.
The London-based owner of Kounrad SX-EW copper project in central Kazakhstan and Sasa zinc-lead mine in North Macedonia said Sasa is now expected to achieve output towards the lower end of 2024 guidance, which currently stands at zinc-in-concentrate production between 19,000 and 21,000 tonnes, and lead-in-concentrate between 27,000 and 29,000 tonnes.
Kounrad is on track to achieve its full-year guidance for copper production, which stands between 13,000 and 14,000 tonnes.
Overall copper production for the first nine months of 2024 has fallen 1.2% to 10,248 tonnes from 10,377 tonnes for the same nine-month period in 2023. Zinc production was down 7.4% to 13,782 tonnes from 14,891 tonnes, and lead production fell 5.0% to 19,736 tonnes from 20,773 tonnes.
Chief Executive Officer Gavin Ferrar said: "Kounrad continued to perform well in the third quarter of 2024, in line with its production performance in the corresponding period of last year, and maintained its excellent safety record. The third quarter is seasonally Kounrad's strongest quarter, and the operation remains on track to achieve full-year production firmly within the guidance range given at the start of this year.
"Sasa also performed well in the third quarter of 2024, with the tonnage processed recovering from the levels of the first half 2024 towards the level recorded in the third quarter last year. This represents a great achievement by the Sasa team, given the challenges posed by the transition to the new mining system designed to ensure the operation's long-term future. Head grades, in particular zinc, also recovered relative to the first half of 2024. We look forward to maintaining this progress in the fourth quarter, which we expect to result in full-year production towards the lower end of the guidance range.
"Meanwhile, the capital projects programme at Sasa is nearing completion, which includes moving to the use of paste backfill in mining and adopting dry-stack tailings. Together, these technologies form the core of Sasa's long-term strategy; maximising resource extraction, and extending the life of Sasa tailings storage facility 4 and thus avoiding the need for a new conventional tailings storage facility. Together, these developments ensure Sasa's planned life to at least 2039."
Shares in Central Asia Metals were down 0.2% at 190.30 pence each in London on Wednesday morning.
By Emily Parsons, Alliance News reporter
Comments and questions to newsroom@alliancenews.com
During the European Council meeting on October 17-18, recent developments in relations with Ukraine will be discussed. The EU intends to stand by Kyiv for as long as necessary, according to European Commission (EC) Vice President Maroš Šefčovič during the EU Council meeting.
Šefčovič emphasized the importance of reaching an agreement on the proposal to allocate macro-financial assistance to Ukraine amounting to up to 35 billion euros as soon as possible.
"The funds must be allocated by the end of this year to provide Ukraine with the necessary fiscal space," he said, recalling the promise made by the G7 in June.
The Vice President of the European Commission also noted the efforts being made to prepare Ukraine for the upcoming winter.
"Together with our partners, we are repairing, reconnecting, and stabilizing Ukraine's energy supply," Šefčovič said.
As part of the winter plan for Ukraine, 160 million euros have already been allocated, supplementing the previously provided 2 billion euros for the country's energy security.
He added that the EU's goal remains unchanged: "to put Ukraine in a position to negotiate peace on favorable terms and to help it on its path to full membership in the European Union."
Assistance to Ukraine bypassing Hungary
Hungary has been blocking the financing of military assistance to Ukraine amounting to 6.5 billion euros from the European Peace Facility for several months. This is related to Budapest's concerns that the funds contributed to the facility would be directed to support Ukraine.
Recently, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said that Budapest will continue to block the decision to allocate 6.5 billion euros until Ukraine restores the transit of Russian oil from Lukoil.
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/eu-seeks-to-set-ukraine-up-for-successful-1728381309.html
Kazakhstan's biggest oil field Tengiz, operated by U.S. major Chevron CVX, boosted output to a record high in October, sources told Reuters, potentially complicating the country's future efforts to comply with its OPEC+ quota.
OPEC+ has named top 10 global oil producer Kazakhstan along with Iraq and Russia as countries that have repeatedly failed to comply with its pledges to curb oil production this year.
Tengiz boosted daily production to 699,000 bpd in early October from 687,000 bpd in September, when output increased by 30% from August after the completion of maintenance, said two industry sources familiar with the data.
The field's operator Tengizchevroil, which has invested more than $70 billion since the project's inception in 1993, said its operations were continuing as usual and declined further comment.
Chevron CVX owns a 50% stake in the venture. Exxon Mobil XOM controls 25%, KazMunayGaz 442AC has a 20% stake, and Russia's Lukoil LKOH owns 5%.
The Kazakh energy ministry did not reply to a request on comment about oil production plans for 2024 and 2025.
Kazakhstan - which relies on Tengiz and two other major fields, Karachaganak and Kashagan, for most of its production - is subject to output targets as a member of OPEC+, an alliance of OPEC and other top producers led by Russia
The country's oil production quota under the OPEC+ deal stands at 1.468 million bpd, a target it exceeded in September by around 170,000 bpd, according to Reuters calculations.
It is likely to remain within its targets this month because it will shut down the Kashagan field for maintenance, sources said.
Overall October production data from Kazakhstan is not yet available, but sources said Karachaganak will produce its regular volumes of 228,000 bpd, while maintenance at Kashagan will entail a complete stoppage of its 400,000 bpd facility.
While that means Kazakhstan will be able to achieve its October quota, the sources said, complying with OPEC+ quotas might become problematic again when the field returns from maintenance in November.
"Taking into account the expansion of Tengiz, compliance with the quota could become impossible," one of the sources said.
Chevron and its partners plan to expand output at the Tengiz project to 850,000 bpd in the first half of 2025. Expansion costs at the project stand at around $49 billion.
OPEC will release estimates of its members' September oil output next week.
The group's leader Saudi Arabia has repeatedly called on rival producers to improve compliance, saying it was the most paramount immediate task before OPEC+ embarks on releasing more barrels from December.
Global oil demand is set to grow next year at a lower rate than previously expected, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for October, as it slashed its Brent oil price forecasts for 2025 due to lower expected demand increase.
The EIA now expects global oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, due to downgraded forecasts of consumption in developed economies in the OECD.
In the September STEO, the EIA had projected global consumption of liquid fuels would increase by 1.5 million bpd in 2025.
In the October outlook, the administration reduced its forecast of total OECD oil consumption by 200,000 bpd in 2025 compared with last month’s STEO, as a result of weaker expectations for industrial production and manufacturing growth in the United States and Canada.
Most of the EIA’s expected global liquid fuel demand growth is from non-OECD countries where liquid fuels consumption is set to increase by 1.0 million bpd in 2024 and 1.2 million bpd in 2025. This would be in contrast to consumption in OECD countries, which is projected to fall by 100,000 bpd in 2024 before increasing by a similar amount in 2025.
For the U.S., the EIA cut its estimate of liquid fuel consumption to 20.49 million bpd in 2025, down from the September estimate of 20.64 million bpd.
In the October STEO, the EIA slashed its forecast for the Brent crude oil spot price through the end of next year. In this month’s outlook, the administration expects the Brent price will average $78 per barrel in 2025, which is $7 a barrel less than the forecast in last month’s STEO. Lower crude oil prices in the forecast “largely reflect a reduction for global oil demand growth in 2025,” the EIA said.
Early on Wednesday, Brent Crude prices were slightly down by 0.4% at $76.80.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Oil prices have seen their most volatile start to a month in almost two years as the spiraling tensions between Iran and Israel spur a bumper bout of volatility.
So far in October, Brent crude has traded in an average daily range of $3.73, the biggest for the same period in any month since December 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Prices have gyrated mainly on the risk that Israel’s retaliation for a missile attack by Iran will involve energy infrastructure in a region that accounts for a third of the world’s oil output. But there have also been macro-economic drivers, including a blowout U.S. jobs report late last week followed by a strong market reaction to stimulus from China.
“The high level of volatility can lead to false positives in terms of buy/sell signals — making for a very challenging environment if you want to initiate directional trades,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group.
The sharp swings have also coincided with bumper activity in the oil options market. On average close to 250 million barrels of bullish calls have changed hands in each of the last 10 days, a record, as traders seek to protect against both higher levels of volatility and a price spike.
Those volumes have seen significant additions of call-option open interest at $100 for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent.
“Where do we see the positioning in oil, it’s in the options, which is part of the reasons why we see big moves,” said Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer for energy pathways at Carlyle Group. “I think it goes to that short-term, near-term myopic approach of trading oil.”
Oil prices slid on Tuesday, settling down more than 4 percent on news of a possible cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel, although prices found some support on fears of a potential attack on Iranian oil infrastructure.
Brent crude futures settled down $3.75, or 4.63 percent, at $77.18 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures finished down $3.57, or 4.63 percent, at $73.57 a barrel. At their session lows, both were down more than $4 a barrel.
"We continue to be very headline dependent," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital LLC. "This morning, we heard about the potential cease-fire. Then we got indications targets are still being dialed in and energy targets are in the mix."
"That Hezbollah is open to a cease-fire, is the kind of headline that people jump on," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. "There should be a lot of volatility up and down on this conflict."
On Monday, Brent rose above $80 per barrel for the first time since August after more than a 3 percent daily gain. That followed the largest weekly gain in over a year, roughly 8 percent, in the week to Friday on rising concerns of a spreading war in the Middle East.
Hezbollah left the door open to a negotiated cease-fire after Israeli forces raised the stakes in the conflict with its Iran-backed enemy by making new incursions in the south of Lebanon.
Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said it appeared the replacement for slain Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had also been eliminated.
Late on Tuesday, Israel's military warned people away from specific buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
The oil price rally began after Iran launched a missile barrage at Israel on Oct. 1. Israel has sworn to retaliate and said it was weighing its options.
Some analysts said an attack on Iranian oil infrastructure was unlikely and warned oil prices could face considerable downward pressure if Israel focuses on any other target.
In the U.S., Hurricane Milton intensified into a Category 5 storm on its way to Florida after forcing at least one oil and gas platform in the Gulf of Mexico to shut on Monday.
U.S. crude oil stocks rose by nearly 11 million barrels last week, while fuel stockpiles fell, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.
Crude stocks rose by 10.96 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 4, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 557,000 barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 2.60 million barrels, they said. (Reuters)
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2024/10/501_383893.html
Oil Shorts Aren’t Ready to Give Up
By Alex Kimani - Oct 09, 2024, 7:00 PM CDT
The big oil price rally that kicked off last week and increased oil prices by nearly $10 per barrel has started unwinding. Brent crude futures for December delivery were trading at $76.63/barrel at 11.40 am ET on Thursday while WTI crude was changing hands at $73.24/barrel. That marks a sharp fall from their Monday 2-month high of $81.12 for Brent and $77.91 for WTI crude. The rally was triggered by Washington’s indication that Israel could strike Iran’s oil facilities.
Citi analysts have provided estimates that a major strike by Israel on Iran's export capacity could take 1.5M bbl/day of crude off the market, while an attack on downstream assets and other relatively minor infrastructure could take out 300K-450K bbl/day. According to ANZ Bank, Iran's oil output hit a six-year high of 3.7M bbl/day in August.
Meanwhile, Clearview Energy Partners has predicted that oil prices could gain as much as $28/bbl if flows are blocked in the Strait of Hormuz; $13/bbl if Israel strikes Iranian energy infrastructure and $7/bbl if the U.S. and its allies placed economic sanctions on Iran.
Unfortunately for oil price bulls, the shorts are not about to give up. According to commodity experts at Standard Chartered, the latest rally was triggered by short sellers running to cover after the Middle East crisis escalated. However, StanChart has warned that short sellers are not running for the hills. According to the analysts, once the unwinding of the undershoot in prices is accounted for, the market response to events in the Middle East, and particularly the threats made against Iranian energy infrastructure, was very underwhelming. StanChart notes that Brent’s front-month settlement on 7 October was lower than the settlement for the equivalent days in 2021, 2022 and 2023 while prompt prices have merely returned to where they were as recently as late August. There’s been little change to the overwhelmingly bearish sentiment that has dominated the oil market over the past three months, with many traders still prepared to short oil aggressively if the daily news flow and market momentum allow for it.
Indeed, positioning data shows little change in the week up to settlement on 1 October, with money-manager net selling of WTI crude futures exceeding net buying. StanChart’s proprietary crude oil positioning index was little changed w/w at -69.1. Neither the latest China stimulus nor the increase in violence in the Middle East seems to fluster the shorts.
The unfolding oil price selloff was triggered by the release of the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report, which StanChart rates highly bearish according to its U.S. oil data bull-bear index. Total commercial inventories fell 0.91 mb w/w to 1.267.08 mb, with the deficit below the five-year average increasing by 1.72 mb to a 20-week high of 20.74 mb. Unfortunately, the bull-bear index was heavily affected by increases in crude oil, gasoline and distillates inventories in both absolute terms and against the five-year averages. Crude oil inventories rose by 3.89 mb w/w to 416.93 mb, with the deficit below the five-year average shrinking by 3.46 mb to 18.44 mb. StanChart points to a highly unusual trend whereby every element in the w/w crude balance changes was in the direction of higher inventories; higher domestic output, higher imports, lower exports, lower refinery runs, slower SPR fill and a higher adjustment term.
Europe’s natural gas prices slip
Meanwhile, European natural gas futures dropped below €40 per megawatt-hour to €38.52 per megawatt-hour, retreating from a 10-month high of €41 reached earlier in the week. The decline was largely driven by increased wind power generation coupled with a stable supply of Norwegian gas.
EU gas inventory builds have remained slow, with the increase over the past week falling to less than 30% of the five-year average. According to data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), Europe’s gas inventories stood at 111.05 billion cubic meters (bcm) on 6 October, good for a w/w build of 391 million cubic meters (mcm). Three of the daily changes were below 50 bcm, including a 42 mcm draw on 2 October. The deficit below last year has risen to 1.5 bcm, while the surplus above the five-year average has shrunk to a 23-month low of 6.17bcm. The current pace of inventory build implies this year’s seasonal maximum might only reach 112 bcm instead of the previous prediction of 166 bcm going by August's clip.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Shorts-Arent-Ready-to-Give-Up.html
(Bloomberg) -- Analysts at BNP Paribas Exane downgraded their ratings on three major oil companies due to an expected further decline in crude prices, with Exxon Mobil Corp. getting its first sell-equivalent rating in over a year.
“Substantial excess OPEC+ capacity is hanging over the sector like the Sword of Damocles,” analysts including Lucas Herrmann wrote in a note to clients. Oil prices “will have to move to levels that may not only stimulate a demand improvement but also drive short-cycle US supply curtailment,” they said.
Exxon Mobil shares fell as much as 1% after the analysts cut their rating to underperform from neutral and lowered the UK’s BP Plc and Spain’s Repsol SA to neutral from outperform, citing exposure to a weaker refining outlook for all three companies. BP and Repsol shares both fell in European trading. Energy was one of the worst-performing of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 Index on Wednesday.
Exxon had lost its last sell rating in August 2023 as Redburn Atlantic upgraded its recommendation.
Exane says Brent crude prices may need to fall to as low as $60 a barrel, given supply dynamics. Crude futures fell below $76 in London trading.
“We suspect investors’ appetite for oil sector investment will be more challenged,” Exane added.
--With assistance from Geoffrey Morgan.
(Updates with US trading moves throughout.)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
When WTI crude prices rose by around 5% earlier this week, energy investors thought that a breakout began. On Tuesday, the rebound stalled. Prices fell again after China offered world markets no concrete details on its mega stimulus plans.
Oil prices depend primarily on fears about escalating tensions in Israel, Lebanon, and Iran. When markets speculate that the war will not have an impact on oil supply, prices fall. Investors should watch Conoco Phillips (COP), EOG (EOG), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Exxon Mobil (XOM). Those are the energy giants that would break out first if energy prices rise.
Investors need to brace for oil prices falling again. While volatility will rise as Middle East tensions worsen, history might repeat itself. In the medium term, oil prices usually spike no higher than around $90/bbl. At that level, demand eases, supply rises, and prices fall.
Watch gold prices, which are at all-time highs. Strong gold prices indicate that investors are taking a geopolitical hedge on risks, and they increase the chances of oil prices rising as well.
For now, watch the war developments. Israel may retaliate after Iran’s missile attacks. The U.S. may intervene to prevent the conflict from spreading.
Two energy stocks that fell the most and have value include Marathon Petroleum (MRO) and Valero Energy (VLO).
https://www.baystreet.ca/stockstowatch/19214/When-Will-the-Energy-Markets-Break-Out
Russia has raised the refining capacity volumes it expects to be idle this month by 67% compared to an earlier plan, due to scheduled maintenance at major refineries, Reuters estimates showed on Wednesday.
In October, Russia expects to have 4.0 million metric tons of refining capacity offline, per Reuters’s calculations based on figures provided by industry sources.
While that’s lower than the idle capacity in September, at 4.5 million tons, it is still higher than previously planned.
Previously postponed maintenance at Rosneft’s Novokuibyshevsk Refinery in southwestern Russia and maintenance at a unit of Lukoil’s NORSI refinery have now increased the capacity that would be offline in October.
In addition, Rosneft’s refinery in Tuapse on the Black Sea has reportedly halted crude processing since October 1 because of low refining margins, industry sources told Reuters earlier this week.
More than half of this month’s idle capacity is set to return in November, when Russia’s idle primary refining capacity is expected at 1.2 million tons, per Reuters estimates. If some of the maintenance works are extended, however, the idle capacity in November could be higher, at 1.8 million tons.
Apart from some seasonal maintenance, Russia’s refining capacity has seen this year more idle units because of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil and energy infrastructure.
Energy installations have been key targets in the conflict by both sides.
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and other energy infrastructure have become a fixture this year, with drones the weapon of choice for conducting the strikes.
In recent months, Russia has seen higher-than-expected maintenance and repairs at its refineries. In addition to unplanned repairs to fix damages from the drones, some refineries have been undergoing planned maintenance.
This dragged down Russia’s fuel output and exports earlier this year.
In the middle of August, the Russian government said that Moscow is extending its ban on gasoline exports from October to the end of December 2024, as it seeks to keep domestic supply stable amid seasonal demand and scheduled repairs at refineries.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday that there are proposals from European Union partners to continue Russian gas purchases after the end of this year, but that the ball is in the court of Ukraine and the EU.
Despite the war, Russia continues to ship gas by pipeline across Ukraine to other European countries. But Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said this week that Kyiv will not extend the gas transit agreement with Russia after it expires at the end of 2024.
Novak, Russia's point man for energy, said Russia was willing to continue supplying gas after the contract expires.
"We have repeatedly expressed our position that the ball is on the side of, let's say, our buying partners and, accordingly, our colleagues from Ukraine, through which transit is carried out," Novak told reporters.
"We have gas, we will supply it," he added.
Russian gas shipments to Europe via Ukraine have slowed dramatically since the start of the war, which prompted the EU to cut its dependence on Russian energy. But countries like Slovakia, Austria and the Czech Republic continue to receive Russian gas.
Asked if buyers in the EU had approached Russia about renewing the deal, Novak said: "There are specific proposals of willingness, but there is no such information about it being translated into legal actions or documents."
The EU and Ukraine have asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azerbaijani presidential adviser told Reuters in June.
Novak said on Wednesday that there were no discussions on swap deals with Azerbaijan for gas transit.
(Reporting by Olesya Astakhova; Writing by Lucy Papachristou; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)
Crude oil prices moved lower today after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an inventory increase of 5.8 million barrels for the week to October 4.
The change in inventory levels compared with a build of 3.9 million barrels for the previous week. It also follows an estimated inventory increase of a sizable 10.9 million barrels, as reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday.
The build estimate pressured oil prices which were already wobbly after traders’ expectations of further Chinese stimulus got betrayed by the government in Beijing, which seems to believe current stimulus is enough.
Meanwhile, the EIA reported an inventory draw in gasoline and a fall in middle distillates for the week to October 4.
Gasoline stocks shed 6.3 million barrels in the period, with production averaging 10.2 million barrels daily.
This compared with a build of 1.1 million barrels for the previous week, when production averaged 9.6 million barrels daily.
In middle distillates, inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels in the week to October 4, with production averaging 5.0 million barrels daily.
This compared with an inventory draw of 1.3 million barrels and daily production averaging 4.8 million barrels.
Earlier in the week, the EIA issued an update on oil and gas, in which it cut oil demand expectations for both the United States and the world in 2025. The authority now expects global demand to add some 1.2 million bpd next year, which is down by 300,000 bpd from earlier EIA forecasts. U.S. demand, according to the EIA, was set to rise by 100,000 bpd less than previously expected, to 20.5 million barrels daily.
It’s worth noting, however, that the EIA has been projecting weaker oil demand for much of this year as well, only to reveal in September that factual data for May and July showed a surge to multi-year seasonal highs.
Oil prices, meanwhile remained relatively stable earlier in the day, as fears of an escalation in the Middle East gave way to hopes of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, with one analyst pointing out that geopolitical news has been distorting oil markets.
“The everyday dilemma of 'Middle Eastern headlines' moving like a pendulum between 'ceasefire talks' and 'further escalation in attacks' has been distracting investors from reality ... Oil markets are twirled in sentiments of 'buying the rumor' and sidelining the real fundamentals that should matter,” Piryanka Sachdeva from Phillip Nova told Reuters.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Slides-as-EIA-Confirms-Large-Crude-Inventory-Build.html
“Year-to-date, Guyana’s oil exports have jumped to 598 thousand barrels per day (kbpd), a 58% year-on-year increase, adding to the growth achieved in previous years. Over the past three years, the average annual growth rate has hit 76%,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
ExxonMobil first started producing from the Liza field in the Starbroek Block in late 2019. Since then, the operation in the Liza field has been expanded and production in the Payara field added. In total, three Floating Production, Storage and Offloading ships (FPSOs) are currently producing oil in the Starbroek Block.
The two FPSOs in the Liza field have year-to-date exported 371 kbpd while the one in the Payara field has exported 227 kbpd.
“Guyana so far only contributes 1.3% of crude tankers’ global cargo volumes but together with the US, Brazil and Canada the country contributes an increasing share of volumes from the Americas. Year-to-date, global crude tanker loadings increased by 163 kbpd compared with last year but loading from the four countries combined increased by 612 kbpd of which 218 kbpd were from Guyana,” says Rasmussen.
The single largest discharge port for Guyana’s oil is the Chiriqui Grande terminal in Panama, but North Europe has emerged as the largest destination area with nearly 45% of the oil heading there year-to-date. Mediterranean Europe took another 18% while the remaining 38% headed to ports in the Americas.
Guyana’s oil is mainly exported by Suezmax ships but as volumes to North Europe has increased so has the use of VLCCs. Year-to-date, 77% (458 kbpd) has loaded on Suezmax ships with VLCCs getting 23% (138 kbpd). As the VLCC voyages are longer than average, VLCCs benefit from 29% of the tonne miles that Guyana’s export offers.
The oil production has contributed to significant economic growth in Guyana. In the five years since oil production began in late 2019, the country’s economy has grown at an average annual rate of 38%. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels of recoverable oil and natural gas has been identified and exploration is continuing. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the economy will grow at an average annual rate of 17% during the next five year.
“ExxonMobil is expected to begin production from the Yellowtail field in 2025 which, according to the International Energy Agency, should lift Guyana’s oil production to 710 kbpd. Guyana should therefore remain one of the main areas of oil supply growth outside OPEC+,” says Rasmussen.
https://www.oedigital.com/news/517892-tanker-vessels-flock-to-guyana-as-oil-exports-soar-58
Market Overview
Oil prices rose on Thursday due to increased fuel demand in Florida following Hurricane Milton’s landfall, which led to a spike in gasoline demand as around 25% of fuel stations reported supply shortages.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have fueled concerns about potential supply disruptions, supporting crude prices further.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a rise in crude inventories by 5.8 million barrels, while also lowering its 2025 demand forecast.
These developments could also impact Natural Gas prices, given the rising energy demand and supply uncertainty in the region.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart
Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $2.87, up 0.28%, showing a mild bullish movement. The current price is slightly above the key pivot point at $2.67, suggesting a potential breakout.
Immediate resistance is at $2.73, followed by $2.77 and $2.82. A decisive break above $2.73 could signal further upside momentum.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $2.61, with additional levels at $2.58 and $2.54 providing a cushion. The 50-day EMA, currently at $2.75, aligns with immediate resistance, indicating a key decision point.
If prices dip below $2.67, bearish sentiment may prevail, potentially pushing NG lower. Traders should watch for a close above $2.73 to confirm bullish momentum.
WTI Oil Price Forecast
WTI Price Chart
USOIL (WTI) is trading at $73.79, up 0.64%, showing a mild recovery after recent declines. The price is hovering near its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $73.78, which now acts as an immediate support level.
A break above the key pivot point at $74.38 could signal further gains, with immediate resistance at $75.84, followed by $77.40 and $78.44. On the downside, strong support lies at $72.65, with additional protection at $71.58 and $70.53.
The previously breached trendline around $74.38 is likely to act as resistance. If prices fail to break above $74.38, the bearish momentum could resume, pushing oil lower in the short term.
Brent Oil Price Forecast
Brent Price Chart
UKOIL (Brent Crude) is trading at $77.10, up 0.47%, showing a slight upward move but still below the key pivot point at $77.13. The price action suggests cautious sentiment, as UKOIL remains below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $77.34, indicating potential bearish pressure.
Immediate resistance is seen at $78.18, followed by $79.19 and $80.25. On the downside, key support is at $76.33, with additional levels at $75.25 and $74.34.
If UKOIL breaks above the $77.13 pivot and clears the 50-day EMA, a bullish reversal could take shape. However, failing to do so could lead to further declines.
Grains
Posted 10:35 -- December corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel, November soybeans are up 5 1/2 cents per bushel. December KC wheat is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel, December Chicago wheat is up 1 cent per bushel and December Minneapolis wheat is up 1/4 cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 272.93 points at 42,353.30. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.230 at 102.78. November crude oil is down $0.46 per barrel at $73.11. Soybeans and soymeal have both recovered from early weakness, while wheat and corn markets are trading near unchanged. The EIA reported that ethanol production rose for the second straight week, rising 23,000 barrels per day to 1.038 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks fell by 5.6% last week to 22.2 million barrels.
Posted 08:38 -- December corn is steady, November soybeans are down 4 1/2 cents per bushel. December KC wheat is up 2 3/4 cents per bushel, December Chicago wheat is up 3 cents per bushel and December Minneapolis wheat is up 3 1/2 cents. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 32.63 points at 42,047.74. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.220 at 102.76. November crude oil is down $1.41 per barrel at $72.16. The USDA announced a new sale of 126,000 mt (5 mb) of corn to unknown destinations for 2024-25. Early gains in both corn and soybeans have dissipated. Wheat remains a bit higher on various world weather issues.
Livestock
OMAHA (DTN) -- December live cattle are down $0.65 at $187.225, November feeder cattle are down $1.63 at $248.675, December lean hogs are down $1.78 at $75.4, December corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 366.53 points. The cash cattle market still hasn't seen any trade as feedlot managers are waiting patiently in hopes they can advance the market again this week. Asking prices are noted in the South at $188 but are still not established in the North.
Posted 08:35 -- December live cattle are up $0.03 at $187.9, November feeder cattle are up $0.33 at $250.625, December lean hogs are down $0.30 at $76.875, December corn is up 1 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 75.39 points. The cash cattle market still hasn't seen any bids develop and this week's trade could be delayed until Friday. Asking prices are noted in the South at $188 live, but are still not established in the North.
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https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2024/10/09/periodic-updates-grains-livestock
China's Zijin Mining Group has acquired a gold mining project in Ghana for $1 billion
Zijin Mining Group Co. acquired the Akyem gold mining project in Ghana from the American mining company Newmont Corp. for $1 billion in order to increase resources to achieve production plans. This is reported in the press release of Zijin Mining.
The deal is aimed at increasing the resources of Zijin Mining by developing the Akyem deposit with reserves of 34.6 tons in one of the world's largest gold belts.
The transaction is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter, subject to regulatory approval. The start of the mine's development in the amount of 5.8 tons of gold per year is planned for 2028 with an extension of operation until 2042.
Africa has become a major investment destination for Chinese mining companies as Beijing seeks to develop ties with the resource-rich continent.
In 2024, gold prices rose sharply, reaching record highs amid investors' desire to benefit from lower interest rates in the United States and protect resources from growing geopolitical tensions in the world.
Zijin Mining is a Chinese mining and metallurgical company specializing in the extraction and processing of copper, gold, silver, zinc, lead and lithium. Zijin Mining is one of the largest companies in China. The headquarters is located in Fujian (China).
NEW DELHI — The majority of an Indian government panel probing the environmental impact of a 12-billion-dollar South Korean steel plant said Monday that clearances for the project should be scrapped.
Steel giant POSCO wants to build the plant in the eastern state of Orissa, in what would be India’s largest foreign investment project since the country launched market reforms in 1991.
Three of the four-member panel said the environmental clearances “should be cancelled forthwith, because of flaws in the studies, and shortcomings in the clearances granted”, said Meena Gupta, the panel’s head.
The panel, which investigated the company’s compliance with environment laws and rehabilitation and resettlement provisions for local tribal people, issued two separate reports after splitting between Gupta and the other three members.
Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh will make the final decision on the plant’s future.
Three months ago, the environment ministry ordered Orissa state government to ensure work stopped at the site after a previous study highlighted alleged irregularities in implementing environmental laws.
India’s rapid industrial development often comes up against environmental concerns and local tribesman as vast expanses of mineral wealth lie in parts of the country that are home to indigenous tribes.
In August, Ramesh struck down a bauxite mining project by British-based resource giant Vedanta, saying the company had shown “shocking” and “blatant” disregard for protected tribal groups.
Gupta wrote in her report that it was “important to point out that POSCO and Vedanta are very different projects and operate in different environs and circumstances”.
She added that the complex issues involved with the PSOCO proposals meant committee members had “formed very different impressions and came to very different conclusions”.
The state government of Orissa and POSCO signed a deal in 2005 but construction stalled due to an ongoing dispute with villagers who are worried about losing their land and livelihoods.
The country’s production of high-grade nickel is also forecast to grow, it added.
Global demand for the metal in 2025 was seen increasing by 7.1% from this year to 3.55 million tons, while supply was likely to climb 7.4% to 3.65 million tons, SMM said.
Supply and demand in a lower purity form of so-called Class 2 nickel is expected to be roughly balanced next year despite higher NPI supply from Indonesia, SMM executive officer Yusuke Niwa said.
“But we expect a surplus in (the almost-pure) Class 1 nickel due to output expansion by Indonesia’s new smelters,” he said.
Nickel is primarily used in the stainless steel sector, but is also a critical component in lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles, where demand is set to surge in the coming years.
SMM, which supplies cathode materials for the Panasonic lithium-ion batteries used in Tesla EVs, predicts that global demand for nickel used in batteries will grow to around 520,000 tons in 2025 from about 470,000 tons this year.
However, Niwa expressed caution about the outlook, noting: “The EV market environment looks quite difficult, except in China.”
“While we anticipate next year’s demand to grow by 50,000 tons from this year… there is a possibility it may fall short of that projection,” he added.
(By Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Jan Harvey)
https://www.mining.com/web/sumitomo-metal-forecasts-widening-global-nickel-supply-surplus-in-2025/
The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for October to December was set at $175 a metric ton, up 1.7% from the prior quarter, on supply concerns amid higher premiums in Europe, four people directly involved in pricing talks said.
The figure is higher than the $172 per ton paid in July to September, and represents a third consecutive quarterly increase and the highest since the January-March quarter in 2022.
Still, it is below initial offers of $180 to $185 per ton made by global producers.
Japan is Asia's major importer of the light metal and the premiums (PREM-ALUM-JP) for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the London Metal Exchange cash price (CMAL0) set the benchmark for the region.
"The increase from Q3 reflected producers' worries over tighter supplies in Asia, as some metals could be diverted to Europe where premiums were higher," a source at a Japanese aluminium rolling mill said.
Meanwhile aluminium demand in Japan remained sluggish across both industries and construction sectors, with ample inventories, sources said.
Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports (AL-STK-JPPRT) rose 9.2% month-on-month to 327,300 metric tons by the end of August, trading house Marubeni 8002 said last month.
Quarterly pricing talks began in late August between Japanese buyers and global suppliers including Rio Tinto RIO, RIO and South32 S32.
In September, negotiations briefly widened the divide between buyers and sellers after one producer hiked its offer to $200 per ton, citing concerns that a fire at a smelter of aluminium group Press Metal in Malaysia could tighten supplies for the region.
But producers made concessions, as the fire's impact was expected to be limited and as they considered weak local demand and rising inventories, the sources said.
"Japanese companies don't purchase much metal from Press Metal, so the impact will be limited," said a source at a Japanese trading firm. Press Metal said last month that about 9% of its total smelting capacity was affected by the fire.
The sources declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the discussions.
Private equity firm MBK Partners said Wednesday that it will not further raise the tender offer price for Korea Zinc amid intensifying competition for management control.
MBK and Young Poong recently raised their tender offer price for Korea Zinc to 830,000 won ($617) and for Young Poong Precision to 30,000 won, as they aim to gain a controlling stake in the world's top zinc smelter.Young Poong Precision holds a 1.85 percent stake in Korea Zinc."We cannot stand by as the corporate value of Korea Zinc and Young Poong Precision is damaged by additional price competition," MBK said in a statement, noting that the tender offer price already offers significant premiums for investors.
The announcement came amid the intensifying battle for control of Korea Zinc, with MBK teaming up with Young Poong and launching a public tender offer in mid-September to acquire up to a 14.61 percent stake in the smelter.
In cooperation with Young Poong, the largest shareholder of Korea Zinc, MBK launched a public tender offer on Sept. 13 to purchase shares of the smelter at 660,000 won per share.
MBK and Young Poong later raised their offer price after Korea Zinc announced it would purchase its own shares at 830,000 won per share.
The ongoing conflict marks the end of decadeslong cooperation between Young Poong and Korea Zinc, which were co-founded in 1974 by Chang Byung-hee and Choi Ki-ho.Young Poong and its supporting investors control a 33.13 percent stake, while Korea Zinc Chairman Choi Yun-beom and his supporters hold a 33.99 percent stake, according to industry sources.
Korea Zinc shares closed at 776,000 won per share on Tuesday on the main bourse.
The Korean stock market was closed on Wednesday in observance of Hangul Day, a national holiday celebrating the creation of the Korean alphabet.Yonhap
Prices will increase for all types of long rolled products, including rebar, beam and wire rod
Global steel producer ArcelorMittal has announced an increase in the prices of rolled products across Europe. This was reported by Kallanish with reference to sources in the market.
Prices will increase by €40/t for all types of long-rolled products, including rebar, beam and wire rod. The decision was made due to the instability of the market and the rise in prices for raw materials around the world. Companies throughout the supply chain are at risk of financial instability, and higher prices should restore some profitability.
The current increase is effective immediately for all new bookings.
Global rebar prices in September did not show a clearly defined trend. In the USA and the EU, the dynamics were negative, but in Turkey and China, growth was observed, which is not considered sustainable.
In particular, on the European market, fittings quotations remained mostly stable in August-September. In Northern Europe, during September 1-20, prices remained at the level of €610-630/t Ex-Works, and in Italy – decreased by 3.4%, to €550-560/t Ex-Works, mainly following the price trend of junk.
As GMK Center reported, ArcelorMittal recently announced an increase in hot-rolled coil prices in Europe by €40/t, up to €590/t. At the same time, NLMK La Louviere increased prices by around €25/t. Service centers have also reacted to the increase in prices from metallurgists, in particular, one of them offers g/k coil at the level of around €605/t for small tonnages.
Steel mills resorted to a sharp price increase following the recent announcement of China’s economic stimulus and rising prices for metallurgical raw materials.
https://gmk.center/en/news/arcelormittal-increases-long-steel-prices-in-europe-by-e40-t/
European steel hot-rolled coil producers are looking to achieve higher prices for deliveries at the end of the fourth quarter of this year and in the first quarter of 2025, but buyers remain cautious because real demand is still low, sources told Fastmarkets on Tuesday October 8.
This week, European suppliers have been increasing their offer prices for HRC, citing mounting costs.
“The lowest offers are no longer [available] but buyers are still hesitating,” a buyer source in Europe said. “[There is] no change in real demand. Only an apparent demand improvement could support the price rise that is being asked [for] – if buyers need to restock before the end of 2024.”
Offer prices for November-December delivery HRC were heard at €560-570 ($614-625) per tonne ex-works. And for larger tonnages, prices of €540-550 per tonne exw were still possible, sources said.
Buyer sources estimated tradable values at €530-540 per tonne exw, but mill sources said the lower end of that range was no longer acceptable.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, at €545.38 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €7.30 per tonne from €538.08 per tonne on October 7.
The index was up by €8.39 per tonne week on week but down by €35.37 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, meanwhile. Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €540.00 per tonne on Tuesday, unchanged from October 7.
The Italian index was up by €7.00 per tonne week on week, but down by €40.24 per tonne month on month.
Market participants reported transactions for November-delivery HRC in Italy at €540-555 per tonne delivered (€530-545 per tonne ex-works).
But after ArcelorMittal’s move last week to increase HRC prices in Europe by €40 per tonne, Italian suppliers were also mulling a price rise, Fastmarkets heard.
“For December delivery, European and Italian mills want a €20-40 per tonne price rise as a first step,” a buyer in Italy said.
Sources also reported high offers for imported HRC in the week started October 7.
New offers from Asia of HRC for November shipment to Italy were reported at €550-560 per tonne CFR, compared with €520-540 per tonne CFR in late September.
But sources told Fastmarkets that this price was totally unworkable for the European market. Buyer price ideas for Asia-origin coil were no higher than €500-520 per tonne CFR, they added, but no such offers were available in the market.
Published by: Julia Bolotova
fastmarkets.com
https://eurometal.net/steel-hrc-prices-in-europe-still-below-mill-target-offers/
SINGAPORE, Oct 9 (Reuters) -Prices of Dalian iron ore futures languished on Wednesday, as an absence of further fiscal measures following China's outsized stimulus package disappointed investors and saw the market's previously stimulus-driven frenzy fade.
The most-traded January iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) DCIOcv1 ended daytime trade down 3.6% at 777.5 yuan ($110.12) a metric ton, after tumbling more than 4% earlier in the session.
The benchmark November iron ore SZZFX4 on the Singapore Exchange, however, edged 0.2% higher to $105.2 a ton.
Metals futures slumped after Beijing failed to deliver any meaningful stimulus measures to boost economic growth, ANZ analysts said in a note.
A press briefing by China's top economic planner was expected to provide details of fiscal stimulus measures the Politburo called for earlier, but instead largely reiterated plans to boost investment, ANZ said.
"Prices retraced on what was clearly overhyped expectations for Chinese stimulus," said Westpac analysts.
China said on Tuesday it was "fully confident" of achieving its full-year growth target, but refrained from introducing stronger fiscal steps, disappointing investors who had banked on more policy support to get the economy back on track.
"We have seen plenty of property support measures this year but so far they have failed to have a meaningful impact on metals demand," ING analysts said.
"We think the recent stimulus measures still lack detail, and we struggle to find an additional demand growth driver for industrial metals in the measures announced so far."
The market needs to see signs of sustainable Chinese recovery and economic growth before industrial metals can make long-term gains, ING said.
Other steelmaking ingredients on the DCE extended declines, with coking coal DJMcv1 and coke DCJcv1 down 4.78% and 4.44%, respectively. Coking coal had plunged over 5% earlier in the session.
Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lost ground. Hot-rolled coil SHHCcv1 dropped 3.5%, rebar SRBcv1 shed nearly 3.3%, stainless steel SHSScv1 declined almost 1.3% and wire rod SWRcv1 was flat.
($1 = 7.0603 Chinese yuan)
Reporting by Gabrielle Ng; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips