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Thursday 10 July 2025
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Macro

EUs von der Leyen issues threat to China over Russia

EUs von der Leyen issues threat to China over Russia

The European Commission president has accused Beijing of helping Moscows war economy

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned that ties between the EU and China could further deteriorate if Beijing refuses to condemn Russia over the conflict in Ukraine.

"We can say that China is de facto enabling Russia's war economy. We cannot accept this," von der Leyen said during a European Parliament session in Strasbourg on Tuesday.

"How China continues to interact with Putin's war will be a determining factor for EU-China relations going forward," she added.

Von der Leyen called on Beijing to "unequivocally condemn Russia's gross violation of Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity and internationally recognized borders."

In the same address, she accused China of engaging in unfair trade practices, such as "flooding global markets with cheap, subsidised goods" in an effort to "wipe out competitors."

Beijing has consistently denied supplying weapons or otherwise supporting Russia in its conflict with Ukraine. "China is not a party to the Ukraine issue. China's position on the Ukraine crisis is objective and consistent, that is, negotiation, ceasefire and peace," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said earlier this month.

"A prolonged Ukraine crisis serves no one's interests. China supports a political settlement to the crisis as early as possible," Mao added.

China has also opposed "unilateral" sanctions on Russia and has offered to help mediate a ceasefire between Moscow and Kiev. In May, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Moscow, pledging to deepen their "strategic partnership" and expand bilateral trade.

(RT.com)


http://shanghaisun.com/news/278432807/eus-von-der-leyen-issues-threat-to-china-over-russia

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India's share in global equity market recovered in June to 4% from 16-month low of 3.6% in Feb: Motilal Oswal

India's share in global equity market recovered in June to 4% from 16-month low of 3.6% in Feb: Motilal Oswal

New Delhi [India], July 9 (ANI): India's share in the global equity market capitalisation rose to 4 per cent in June 2025, recovering from a 16-month low of 3.6 per cent in February 2025, according to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

The report highlighted that India continues to be among the top 10 contributors to the global equity market, reflecting the growing strength and resilience of its stock markets.

It stated, 'India's share of the global market cap at 4 per cent, after touching a 16-month low in Feb'25'.

The report showed that the top 10 countries together make up 82.5 per cent of the global market capitalisation as of June 2025.

Among these, the United States holds the highest share with 48.2 per cent, followed by China at 8.0 per cent, Japan at 5.3 per cent, and Hong Kong at 4.8 per cent.

India stands at the fifth position with a 4 per cent share in the world's total market cap, ahead of countries like Canada (2.7 per cent), the UK (2.6 per cent), France (2.5 per cent), Germany (2.3 per cent), and Taiwan (2.0 per cent).

The report also showed the long-term trend in India's market cap share. In June 2013, India's contribution had fallen to a low of 1.6 per cent, but since then, it has shown a steady rise.

The average share of India in the global market cap over the last 15 years has been 2.8 per cent, which means the current 4 per cent is significantly higher than the historical average.

India's market cap had touched a recent high of 4.6 per cent in late 2024 before slipping to 3.6 per cent in February 2025. The recovery in June shows renewed investor confidence and a positive outlook for Indian equities.

The report highlighted the growing influence of India in global financial markets in recent years and signals a positive trend for investors and the broader economy. (ANI)


http://shanghaisun.com/news/278432754/india-share-in-global-equity-market-recovered-in-june-to-4-from-16-month-low-of-36-in-feb-motilal-oswal

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EU Faces 250-Billion Euro Gap in Grid Investment Plans

Grid operators in Europe are facing a shortfall of 250 billion euros, or $293 billion, in investments necessary to upgrade grids in line with energy transition plans, Boston Consulting Group has said in a new report.

BCG said that over the next three years, transmission system operators, or TSOs, in Europe, should invest 345 billion euro ($405 bln) over the next three years. That amount would be three times larger than investments in the five previous years. However, grid operators would only be able to generate a portion of that investment, BCG said.

“Without new approaches to financing and capital efficiency, TSOs may fall short of delivering the infrastructure needed to meet Europe’s climate and reliability goals,” the company said, identifying three problematic areas. These are, first, limitations to TSOs capacity to raise money via debt or equity; second, a tension between efforts to keep electricity costs low for consumers while ensuring a certain level of returns to investors in grid operators; and third, different expectations of these grid operators from governments, on the one hand, and investors, on the other.

Governments see grid operators as growth companies, focusing on investment and growth, while investors see them as a low-risk investment with a certain dividend. It is because of this dividend aspect that BCG sees the investment gap: the estimated amount that Europe’s 15 largest TSOs are seen paying in the period between 2025 and 2030 is between 25 and 30 billion euros, or $29-$35 billion.

“Without rapid innovation in how we finance grid infrastructure, Europe risks having world-class renewable generation that can't reach consumers because the grid hasn't kept pace,” one of the authors of the report, Tom Brijs, said.

Options are not unlimited, however, with BCG suggesting stake sales and “government-backed financing tools”, which essentially means subsidies.


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/EU-Faces-250-Billion-Euro-Gap-in-Grid-Investment-Plans.html

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Oil and Gas

Crude Oil Gains on Energy Demand Optimism

Floating oil rig in ocean by Keri Jackson via Pixabay

Floating oil rig in ocean by Keri Jackson via Pixabay

August WTI crude oil (CLQ25) today is up +0.20 (+0.29%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ25) is up +0.0070 (+0.32%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices extended this week's rally and posted 2-week highs. Comments from the UAE Energy Minister today boosted crude prices when he stated that a lack of major inventory buildups indicates that the oil market requires larger OPEC+ output. Crude prices also rose after Saudi Arabia's state-run Aramco stated that it sees "healthy global oil demand," despite the impact of tariffs on the global economy. Crude prices fell back from their best levels after weekly EIA crude inventories unexpectedly increased.

Heightened tensions in the Middle East are supportive of crude prices after Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked another merchant ship in the Red Sea on Tuesday, adding to their attack on a vessel sailing through the Red Sea on Sunday. The attacks on shipping could boost freight rates and insurance costs for shippers, making crude supplies from the Middle East more expensive. The attacks have already prompted retaliatory strikes by Israeli jets on Houthi targets and could prompt strikes from the US as well.

Concern about a global oil glut is negative for crude prices. On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to raise its crude production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning August 1, exceeding expectations of a 411,000 bpd increase. Saudi Arabia also stated that additional similar-sized increases in crude output could follow, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and penalize overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 bpd increase in crude production for July, following the same 411,000 bpd hike for June. June crude production rose +360,000 bpd to a 1.5-year high of 28.10 million bpd.

Oil prices continue to be undercut by tariff concerns as President Trump vowed to push forward with his aggressive tariff regime, stressing he would not offer additional extensions on country-specific tariffs set to take effect on August 1.

An increase in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bearish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days rose by +3.6% w/w to 79.55 million bbl in the week ended July 4.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-gains-energy-demand-155356165.html

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Oil Majors Shell and BP Resume Energy Projects Across Libya


Shell plc SHEL and BP p.l.c. BP have signed agreements with Libya's National Oil Corporation (“NOC”) to assess hydrocarbon potential across three major oilfields. This move marks a significant revival of foreign energy interest in Libya, which has faced years of instability following the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. The country, Africa’s second-largest oil producer, aims to attract global energy giants despite ongoing challenges from internal factional disputes.

Shell to Assess Atshan Oilfield Potential

Shell, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), has signed a memorandum with NOC to evaluate hydrocarbon prospects at the Atshan oilfield and other NOC-controlled areas. The company will lead a full-scale technical and economic feasibility study for future development opportunities.

BP to Reopen Tripoli Office and Explore New Frontiers

In a parallel development, BP will reopen its Tripoli office by the end of 2025, signaling a firm commitment to its renewed exploration ambitions. The British energy giant, which recently shifted its focus from the unsuccessful low-carbon strategy back to fossil fuels, signed a memorandum of understanding to explore the revival of two major oilfields in Libya.

The company will now conduct studies on the Messla and Sarir oilfields and nearby exploration areas to assess Libya's potential in "unconventional" hydrocarbons, such as shale oil and gas. This requires advanced technologies like hydraulic fracturing to extract hydrocarbons trapped in porous rock formations.

Political Disruptions in Libya Since 2011

Libya, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and home to Africa’s largest proven crude reserves, is working to attract international oil majors back into the country. The effort comes amid ongoing political instability following the 2011 overthrow of longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi. The nation remains divided between two rival governments that often clash over control of its underfunded oil sector.

Since the civil war, Libya’s oil production has been highly unstable, plummeting from around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to just 100,000 bpd in 2011. Although recent output has hovered between 1.2 million bpd and 1.3 million bpd, it has been marked by significant fluctuations. The country is now aiming to increase production to 2 million bpd within the next few years.

Beginning last year, major international energy companies, including BP, Italy’s Eni, Spain’s Repsol and Austria’s OMV, resumed drilling activities after nearly a decade-long halt that began in 2014. Libya has also launched its first oil and gas exploration tender since the civil war, signaling a renewed push to revive its energy sector.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-majors-shell-bp-resume-120400777.html

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Agriculture

Strength in Global Demand Boosts Sugar Prices

Sugar cube pyramid by Artefacti via iStock

Sugar cube pyramid by Artefacti via iStock

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) today is up +0.42 (+2.60%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) is up +17.80 (+3.74%).

Sugar prices today are sharply higher, with NY sugar climbing to a 1-week high and London sugar jumping to a 1.5-month high. Concerns that global sugar supplies may tighten have sparked short covering in sugar futures today after Pakistan said it will import 500,000 MT of sugar and the Philippines said it will import 424,000 MT of sugar.

Sugar prices have plummeted over the past three months due to expectations of a global sugar surplus. Last Wednesday, October NY sugar posted a contract low, and last Monday, the July NY sugar contract posted a 4.25-year low on the nearest-futures chart. Last Wednesday, Aug London sugar posted a 3.75-year nearest-futures low. Last Monday, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with global sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year.

The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. The outlook for abundant rainfall in India could lead to a bumper sugar crop, which is bearish for prices. On April 15, India's Ministry of Earth Sciences projected an above-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall forecast to be 105% of the long-term average. India's monsoon season runs from June through September. On Monday, the India Meteorological Department reported that rainfall in June was 9% above normal in India and has forecast above-normal rain for July.

Signs of larger global sugar output are negative for prices. On May 22, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT. Also, India's 2025/26 sugar production is projected to rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, citing favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. In addition, Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strength-global-demand-boosts-sugar-164016395.html

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Precious Metals

Gold from Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex to finance Mali operations


Operations at Barrick Mining’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex were suspended in January 2025 after the Malian government seized gold stocks. Credit: Below the Sky/Shutterstock.

The court-appointed administrator of Barrick Mining’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali has announced plans to sell one tonne of gold from the site’s reserves, as reported by Reuters.

The move will fund operations as the complex resumes activity following a near-six-month halt.

Operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto complex were suspended in January 2025 after the Malian government seized gold stocks.

The site, which contributed to 15% of Barrick’s gold output, is now under the temporary administration of former health minister Soumana Makadji, who has enlisted Samba Toure, chairman of the state mining company and former executive at Loulo-Gounkoto, to assist with the restart.

Barrick’s CEO Mark Bristow stated: “If it is true, any plans by the administrator to restart operations and sell gold on the site in our view would be illegitimate.”

According to the report, operations at the plant resumed on Monday 7 July for the first time since the suspension.

The decision to sell the gold, valued at $107m, comes amid a two-year dispute between Barrick and Mali’s military-led government over tax and the adoption of a new mining code.

The sale will be one of the first significant actions taken by Makadji since assuming control of the Loulo-Gounkoto complex, Mali’s largest gold mining operation and the third largest in Africa.

Funds from the sale are expected to cover operational expenses, including salaries, fuel and payments to contractors.

Bristow has vowed to use legal means to hold the state accountable for its actions, stating: “We will use every legal measure at our disposal to hold the state and the individuals involved accountable for these unlawful actions to protect our people and to defend our investments.”

In June 2025, Barrick Mining initiated international arbitration to resolve the dispute following the seizure of gold and restrictions on exports and the executives.


https://www.mining-technology.com/news/mali-gold-loulo-gounkoto-finance-operations/

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Base Metals

South Africa's rand and stocks slip as lower commodity prices weigh

South Africa's commodity-backed currency and stocks weakened on Wednesday, with investor focus on precious metal prices that have been on the back foot after U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats.

On Tuesday, Trump said he would impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, hoping to boost U.S. production of a metal critical to electric vehicles, military hardware, power grids and many consumer goods.

At 1218 GMT, the rand traded at 17.8250 against the dollar USDZAR, down roughly 0.2% on Tuesday's close.

South Africa is a major producer of minerals and precious metals and investors in its rand, like those in other commodity-linked currencies, will be closely tracking developments from Washington.

Prices of spot gold GOLD, platinum PL1!, palladium XPDUSD1! and copper outside the U.S. fell sharply on Wednesday.

"Although South Africa produces relatively little copper and therefore has minimal direct exposure, a potential U.S. copper tariff would weigh on commodity-exporting emerging economies more broadly," said Roy Topol, portfolio manager at Cratos Asset Management.

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange's Top-40 index SA40 was last down 0.2%, hurt partly by falls in shares of mining companies.

Shares of heavyweights Anglo American AAL and Glencore GLEN were both down 2%, which Topol attributed to their significant exposure to copper.

Shares of gold miners Harmony Gold HAR and Gold Fields GFI dropped 1%.

Compounding pressure on the already risk-sensitive rand is the country's attempts to negotiate a trade deal with the United States before an extended deadline of August 1, after which it faces a 30% trade tariff on its exports to the U.S.

Trump also reiterated on Tuesday his threat of 10% tariffs on the BRICS bloc, which includes South Africa.

South Africa's benchmark 2035 government bond (ZAR2035=) was flat, with the yield up half a basis point at 9.9%.


https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3T60D8:0-south-africa-s-rand-and-stocks-slip-as-lower-commodity-prices-weigh/

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Overview of China's aluminium production in June 2025 and forecast for July

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminium production in June 2025 (30 days) increased by 1.57 per cent Y-o-Y and decreased by 3.23 per cent M-o-M. The operating capacity of domestic aluminium in June saw a slight M-o-M change. SMM learned that the phase II replacement project of an aluminium smelter in Shandong, which will be relocated to Yunnan, has commended. The plant in Shandong is required to shut down corresponding capacity for the replacement project and pass checks before being allowed to commission pots at its new plant in Yunnan.

China's aluminium production in June

In June, the proportion of liquid aluminium at domestic aluminium smelters continued to rise, up 0.1 percentage points M-o-M to 75.8 per cent. The increase was smaller than expectations at the start of the month, mainly due to high alloy inventory at downstream facilities and increased casting ingot production at some smelters. The proportion of liquid aluminium is expected to pull back in July. Based on SMM's data on proportion of liquid aluminium, domestic aluminium casting ingot production in June decreased 12.77 per cent Y-o-Y to around 872,500 tonnes.

Capacity changes: As of month-end June, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminium capacity at approximately 45.69 million tonnes (SMM adjusted the figure in late April by eliminating double calculations after taking into account capacity replacement and old plant dismantling). Operating capacity stood at around 43.83 million tonnes. The operating rate edged down M-o-M due to capacity replacement programmes. SMM learned that the Shandong-to-Yunnan replacement project required the old smelter to complete production cuts and pass inspection before new pots could be started at the new facility. SMM will continue tracking aluminium capacity changes.

Production forecast: In July 2025, domestic aluminium operating capacity will maintain high levels. Yunnan's second batch of replacement projects will commence operation, boosting the industry operating rate. No progress has been made in other projects. Weakening end-use demand and significant inventory buildup of intermediate alloy products, coupled with production cut news from Qinghai and central China, may force upstream smelters to increase casting ingot output, potentially pulling the proportion of liquid aluminium back to around 74 per cent. Future attention should focus on proportion of liquid aluminium trends, alloy product inventory and demand.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.


https://www.alcircle.com/press-release/overview-of-china-s-aluminium-production-in-june-2025-and-forecast-for-july-114669

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Steel

POSCO sells Chinese stainless steel JV to Chinese rival for $300 mn

POSCO's stainless steel plant in Pohang, North Gyeongsang province, Korea

POSCO, South Korea’s largest steelmaker, has sold Zhangjiagang Pohang Stainless Steel (PZSS), its loss-generating stainless steel joint venture, to Tsingshan Holdings Group for about 400 billion won ($300 million), according to industry sources on Wednesday.

The sale is the latest in a series of POSCO's divestments of low profit and non-core assets as it pivots toward high-end steel products and battery materials amid a supply glut triggered by aggressive production from Chinese steelmakers.

The proceeds will be injected into POSCO's new manufacturing facilities in the US, India and Indonesia, including an investment into an electric furnace to be built in Donaldsonville, Louisiana, by Hyundai Steel Co.

POSCO Holdings Inc. recently signed an agreement to sell its entire 82.53% stake in PZSS to Tsingshan Holdings, China's largest stailness steel producer and the world's top nickel supplier.

Jiangsu Shagang Group holds the remaining stake in the JV founded in 1997.

By 2006, PZSS had grown into China’s first integrated stainless steel mill, encompassing hot- and cold-rolled steelmaking facilities.

PZSS had accounted for about one-third of stainless steel production in China with an annual capacity of 10 million tons. Its output has since shrunk to 800,000-900,000 tons annually since 2023.

It saw its operating loss more than double to 170 billion won in 2023 from 77.3 billion won in 2022.

POSCO has decided to sell its Chinese unit amid a bleak outlook for the stainless steel market as China's construction industry shows few signs of a near-term recovery.

Stainless steel is used primarily for construction materials, storage tanks, and piping.

"Zhangjiagang Pohang Stainless Steel is grappling with aging facilities that would require major reinvestment,” a senior POSCO official said.

POSCO headquarters in Seoul

POSCO headquarters in Seoul

“Even with additional investment, we concluded that it would be difficult to stay competitive given how far behind the plant has fallen in terms of technology,” he added.

Since last year, POSCO has been shedding non-core assets, including a heavy oil power plant in Papua New Guinea, P&O Chemical Co. and a stake in a petroleum-fired power plant in Vietnam, raising 949.1 billion won in cash.

It aims to secure 2.1 trillion won ($1.5 billion) by the end of this year through asset sales conducted since 2024.

Some of the proceeds will also fund the construction of an integrated steel mill in India, a joint venture with India’s JSW Group.

By Woo-Sub Kim, Jin-Won Kim and Jun-Ho Cha

duter@hankyung.comYeonhee Kim edited this article.


https://www.kedglobal.com/corporate-restructuring/newsView/ked202507090003

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Iron Ore

Iron ore extends rise on falling shipments but mixed China data caps gain

BEIJING: Iron ore futures prices extended gains for a second straight session on Wednesday, aided by falling shipments and resilient demand, although mixed factory data in top consumer China curbed gains.

The most-traded September iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) traded 0.68% higher at 736.5 yuan ($102.57) a metric ton, as of 0250 GMT.

The benchmark August iron ore on the Singapore Exchange was up 0.34% at $96.1 a ton, as of 0240 GMT.

Iron ore shipments from top suppliers, Australia and Brazil, have fallen after the flurry of ramp-up by the end of the past quarter, analysts at Everbright Futures said. Analysts at Galaxy Futures noted that ore prices will find some support from the supply side.

“Despite slight fall, hot metal output still sat at a relatively high level and steel consumption from the manufacturing sector remains strong,” Galaxy’s analysts added.

Hot metal output is typically used to gauge iron ore demand. But gains were limited after data showed China’s consumer prices rose for the first time in five months in June, while its producer deflation deepened to its worst level in almost two years.

The world’s second-largest economy is still grappling with uncertainty over a global trade war and subdued demand at home, piling pressure on policymakers to roll out more support measures.

Other steelmaking ingredients on the DCE gained ground, with coking coal and coke up 1.55% and 1.06%, respectively.

Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange moved in a tight range.

Rebar ticked 0.07% higher, hot-rolled coil and stainless steel were flat, wire rod added 0.15%.


https://www.brecorder.com/news/40371807

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