Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Friday 23 October 2026
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The Burdass Brief

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Macro

TSX Tumbles at Start

Canada's main stock index opened lower on Thursday as ?weaker gold and copper prices pressured mining stocks, while ?tech shares slipped on ?fresh concerns over ?AI spending.

The TSX waned 292.15 points to open Thursday at 36,032.84.

Canada's main stock index opened lower on Thursday as weaker gold and copper prices pressured mining stocks, while tech shares slipped on fresh concerns over AI spending.

The TSX waned 292.15 points to open Thursday at 36,032.84.

The Canadian dollar edged up 0.09 cents to 71.30 cents U.S.

On the economic scene, Statistics Canada revealed that its raw materials price index increased 4.8% in September.

Canada's new housing prices fell 0.2% month over month in September, after declining 0.1% in August

ON BAYSTREET

The TSX Venture Exchange dropped 17.69 points to 830.85.

Seven of the 12 subgroups were up, led by telecoms, ahead 2.2%, consumer staples, better by 2%, and real-estate, improving 1.8%.

The five laggards were weighed most by materials, retreating 4.6%, gold, off 4.5%, and information technology, sliding 1.5%.

ON WALLSTREET

Stocks tumbled slid on Thursday on renewed concerns around spending by artificial intelligence companies, while oil prices jumped as geopolitical tensions rise.

The Dow Jones Industrials skidded 311.42 points to open at 52,544,67.

The S&P 500 index subtracted 107.45 points to 7,651.18.

The tech-heavy NASDAQ swooned 586.69 points, or 1.4%, to 26,116.17.

Meta Platforms slipped 5% even it exceeded revenue expectations and offered upbeat guidance. Technology more broadly was under pressure as well as ongoing concerns about artificial intelligence spending persisted. Advanced Micro Devices fell more than 5%, while Micron Technology and Nvidia dropped 2% and 1%, respectively.

Neocloud leader CoreWeave, whose bond yields and credit default swaps remain elevated, declined nearly 4% as well. The move comes as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told the media Thursday that demand for neoclouds is "off the charts." However, he added that capital is scarce and impeding growth.

Prices for the 10-year Treasury jumped, lowering yields sharply to 5.02% from Wednesday 5.12%. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Oil prices gained $1.31 to $98.46 U.S. a barrel.

Gold prices dulled $80.60 to $4,069.40 U.S. an ounce.


https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tsx-tumbles-start-145100594.html

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UK Rules Out Winter Energy Shortages as Gas Prices Soar

By Irina Slav - Oct 23, 2026, 3:30 AM CDT

There is no risk of power or gas outages during this winter in the UK, as there will be sufficient generation and gas supply, the National Energy System Operator has said in its early winter outlook.

In fact, NESO said it expected surplus electricity output at 5.5 GW for the period between October 31 and March 31 next year, “with an 8.8% buffer over expected peak demand.”

Things may yet change, however, the grid operator also said, noting factors to watch such as electricity generation in continental Europe, gas market developments, and the weather. NESO said the supply and demand situation is most vulnerable to unforeseen events in January.

Electricity security may be ensured for the winter, but it will not be cheap. Per Reuters, UK front-month gas and electricity prices are up by 180% and 120%, respectively, from February this year, before the war in the Middle East began.

The UK has become a lot more dependent on gas imports over the past decade or so, as it shrank its own production as part of decarbonization efforts. The island nation is also increasingly dependent on electricity imports from its continental neighbors, including France, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway.

This dependence now exposes the UK to the European Union’s gas troubles: gas storage is barely above 70% full, and withdrawals have already started, ING commodity analysts wrote in a note earlier today. This may result in a supply squeeze down the road as the weather gets colder, even if the winter overall turns out milder than last year’s.

Despite that risk, the UK earlier this week reinforced this exposure, as Ofgem, the energy market regulator, approved a deal between National Gas and Interconnector Limited to keep the gas pipeline with Belgium operating, even at lower flows. These lower flows were the result of higher operating and maintenance costs, Reuters said in a report on the news.


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UK-Rules-Out-Winter-Energy-Shortages-as-Gas-Prices-Soar.html

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Oil

Houthis Claim Strikes on Saudi Defense Ministry and Aramco; Two Killed in Dammam Airport Attack

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels said Thursday that they had launched attacks against Saudi Arabia's Defense Ministry in Riyadh, Saudi Aramco oil facilities in the Red Sea port city of Yanbu and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, where Saudi authorities confirmed two people were killed and eight others injured in an attack Wednesday evening.

The claims mark another escalation in the Houthis' campaign against Saudi military, aviation and energy infrastructure, as fighting intensifies between the group and Saudi-backed forces in Yemen.

צנעא

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels ( Photo: AP/ Osamah Abdulrahman)

Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed attacks on the Defense Ministry in Riyadh or Aramco facilities in Yanbu, and there was no independent verification that either site had been hit.

The kingdom has, however, confirmed the deadly attack on Dammam airport, although its civil aviation authority did not specify the weapon used or identify those responsible in its initial statements.

The Houthi announcement comes after a series of deadly strikes against Saudi airports and oil facilities in recent weeks, prompting Washington to withdraw some government personnel from the kingdom and Britain to announce additional military assistance.

Two killed at Dammam airport, two more at Saudi oil field

Saudi Arabia's General Authority of Civil Aviation said Thursday that the death toll from Wednesday evening's attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam had risen to two after an additional fatality was confirmed.

The victims were identified as a Saudi citizen and an Indian national living in the kingdom. Eight other people were injured, including a Saudi citizen and seven foreign nationals from India, Yemen, Bangladesh and Nepal.

The injuries ranged from minor to serious, with the wounded receiving treatment at several hospitals.

The authority said the airport had sustained material damage, but that operations had resumed and air traffic had returned to normal. Officials continued assessing the damage and coordinating security measures to protect passengers and airport employees.

The airport, located in Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern Province near the Persian Gulf, had already been targeted during the recent escalation.

In a separate incident Wednesday, two foreign workers were killed and two others injured after Saudi air defenses intercepted a drone attempting to strike a processing facility at Saudi Aramco's Shaybah oil field.

According to the Saudi Energy Ministry, falling debris from the interception sparked a fire in a contractor's vehicle outside the facility's perimeter.

The two fatalities were a Filipino and a Nepali national, while the injured were Pakistani and Indian citizens.


https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s19ykyp2mg

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Oil and Gas

Why Trump and an Oil Shock Aren’t Enough for Texan Drillers

MIDLAND, TX — This should be a glorious era for Diamondback Energy. In the 15 years since the oil company went public, it has leveraged savvy fracking skills and astute acquisitions to grow from a scrappy West Texas driller — its stock ticker is FANG — to a behemoth responsible for about 4% of US oil production. This year, thanks to the surge in oil prices caused by the war in Iran, Diamondback’s second-quarter profits per share more than doubled from last year; Wall Street expects another boost when third-quarter earnings are released in a few weeks.

But CEO Kaes Van’t Hof isn’t celebrating. “We don’t like when prices are too high,” he told me. Oil prices north of $100 per barrel — the US benchmark is around $99 this week — “are great for a month or two, and then I get called to Congress and called a price gouger.”

High fuel prices could be a decisive disadvantage for US President Donald Trump in the looming midterm elections. As he scrambles abroad for barrels, the Permian Basin — the country’s biggest and richest oilfield, the bedrock of US energy security at a time of unprecedented turmoil in global markets — remains the place where his battle will be won or lost. And indeed, production here is higher than ever.

But many Permian drillers are ambivalent about this growth. Diamondback, like its peers, has been hesitant to answer Trump’s repeated calls to “drill, baby, drill”; the company’s latest production target for the year is only about 4% higher than it was before the US-Iran war. Across the Permian, daily production is only 1.5% above where it was when the Strait of Hormuz crisis began in February, despite US oil prices rising 50%.

That circumspection is the result of some hard lessons from a century of booms and busts. Despite major engineering strides in driving down production costs, and a wave of industry consolidation that has concentrated resources and decision making in fewer hands, executives like Van’t Hof are less willing than ever to take billion-dollar gambles adding rigs just because the president wants them to. No matter how attractive oil prices look today, many in the Permian believe a price crash is inevitable, either because Trump’s daily “jawboning” keeps futures traders feeling bearish, or because of a genuine security breakthrough in Iran, evaporating consumer demand owing to high prices and the clean energy transition, or the influx of foreign barrels from places like Venezuela.

That’s a market reality that Washington often seems to miss: Trump’s overall “energy dominance” strategy relies on companies like Diamondback to drill more, but sets them up for failure if they do too much.

“We’re the only business in the country where neither side of the aisle wants you to make money,” Van’t Hof said. “‘Drill, baby, drill’ is basically drill as much as you can to commit economic suicide.”


https://www.semafor.com/article/10/21/2026/why-trump-and-an-oil-shock-arent-enough-for-texan-drillers

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Mozambique’s ENH Pursues $250 Million Gas Pipeline Plan to Supply Southern Africa

Mozambique on the map of Africa (© Shutterstock/hyotographics)

Mozambique’s state-owned oil and gas company, Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos, is in talks with investors to build a $250 million gas pipeline project aimed at cementing the country’s role as a regional energy hub.

Rudêncio Morais, CEO and chairman of ENH, told Reuters in an interview published Monday that the company is negotiating with South Africa’s Sasol and pipeline operator ROMPCO to back the project.

Central to the initiative is a new 140-kilometer (87-mile) pipeline linking proposed coastal gas infrastructure to the main Republic of Mozambique Pipeline Company network, which transports natural gas to South Africa’s Secunda industrial complex.

The project includes floating storage and regasification units at Inhassoro and the Port of Beira.

Mozambique currently exports gas to South Africa from Sasol’s onshore Pande and Temane fields, but those reserves are expected to be depleted within a few years.

The new pipeline connection would allow Mozambique to tap into vast offshore resources in the northern Rovuma Basin—where majors TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and Eni are developing multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas ventures—to meet ongoing South African demand.

ENH belongs to a state-owned consortium awarded an exclusive 30-year concession last year to construct and manage national gas facilities.

Morais said the target is to complete the pipeline and import infrastructure by 2030 or 2031, aligning with the timelines of the Mozambique LNG, Rovuma LNG, and Coral North projects.

While most Rovuma Basin gas is earmarked for global exports, petroleum laws enacted in June mandate that at least 25% of domestic oil and gas output be reserved for local and regional markets.

The infrastructure expansion builds on the success of Eni's Coral Sul floating LNG facility, operating off the Palma district since 2022. A sister project, Coral Norte, is 70% complete and slated for 2028 production.

By creating a direct pipeline link between new regasification terminals and existing transmission lines, Mozambique aims to secure its supply chain, offset declining onshore fields, and position itself as the primary gas exporter to Southern Africa.


https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/mozambiques-enh-pursues-250-million-gas-pipeline-plan-supply-southern-africa

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Agriculture

Updated: Our Potash Graphic

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Base Metals

Large Copper Delivery to LME Warehouse; Base Metals Lower

  • LME Aluminum 3M Select trades $-29 lower to $3012.50 at 9:07:06 AM
  • LME Copper 3M Select trades $-280.25 lower to $14076 at 9:07:06 AM 
  • (Bloomberg) – Copper slid as inventories on the London Metal Exchange surged for a second day and a selloff in AI-related stocks sapped risk appetite across global markets. The red metal dropped as much as 2% to a low of $14,076 a ton, tracking losses in equities markets after earnings from major tech companies failed to reassure investors about the durability of the artificial intelligence trade. Copper has benefited from that boom because of its use in data centers and power infrastructure. The metal’s retreat from last month’s record high of $14,875 a ton has also been fueled by doubts over whether the US will impose a tariff on refined copper as President Donald Trump approaches the midpoint of his second term. The prospect of a levy has drawn vast amounts of the metal into Comex exchange warehouses in the US this year, squeezing supplies on the LME. Those supply constraints have caused spot copper prices to rally above futures over recent weeks, in a condition known as backwardation. But on-warrant inventories have surged by 70,100 tons on the LME over the past two days, with the backwardation creating an incentive for stockholders to deliver metal against short positions, rather than rolling those hedges forward at a loss. The bulk of the inflows were seen in the US, where futures prices on Comex have fallen to trade near parity with the LME over recent sessions. The collapse in the spread has come into sharp focus in the copper market, because it reduces the incentive to ship metal into the US and deliver it into Comex warehouses. Copper was 1.8% lower at $14,105.50 a ton on the LME as of 9:34 a.m. local time. Aluminum declined 1% to $3,023.50, while nickel gave up 0.6% after surging 3.7% in the prior session on the prospect of coordinated output cuts by Chinese producers in Indonesia. Iron ore fell as much as 1.7% to $89.45 a ton in Singapore, the lowest in almost two years.
  • CME HRC Steel last traded at $1286 and $1 higher at 10/21/2026


https://aegis-hedging.com/insights/metals/daily-first-look/2026-10-22

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Thiess Wins Long-Term Mining Services Contracts in Mongolia

Posted on 22 Oct 2026


Global mining services provider Thiess has been awarded two five-year contracts in Mongolia, strengthening its presence in the country, the company says.

Under the two contracts, Thiess will deliver underground mining services at the Rio Tinto-managed Oyu Tolgoi Mine, as well as provide asset management services for Energy Resources at the Ukhaa Khudag Mine.

Since establishing operations in Mongolia in 2007, Thiess has developed strong in-country capability and delivered mining and maintenance solutions across a range of projects nationwide, it says.

Thiess Executive Chair and CEO, Michael Wright, said the contracts reflected Thiess’ focus on growing from its core while expanding across services, commodities and geographies.

“These awards demonstrate the trust our clients place in Thiess and reflect the strength of our long-standing partnerships with Oyu Tolgoi and Energy Resources, as well as the capability of our team. Our success is built on our global expertise, our local people and our local capability, and we’re proud these contracts will create new career opportunities as our workforce grows.”

CIMIC Group President and Executive Director, Roberto Gallardo, said the contracts reinforced the strategic importance of Thiess’ client relationships and natural resources capabilities.

“Long-term contracts with leading clients are central to Thiess’ strength and to CIMIC’s natural resources strategy, and these awards in Mongolia are a clear example of that in action. Mongolia remains a key market for Thiess, and these contracts reinforce our long-term commitment to our clients, communities and the country.”

At Oyu Tolgoi, Thiess, through the Thiess-Khishig Arvin Joint Venture (TKAJV), will provide underground mining services, including underground development, ground support installation and block cave infrastructure construction.

The project will support the continued development of one of the world’s largest copper-gold operations and is expected to create more than 110 new roles over the next few months. The workforce is projected to grow to almost 800 people by the end of the contract term, making it Thiess’ largest underground mining operation globally.

The award builds on Thiess’ established presence at Oyu Tolgoi, where it has operated since 2016 through the TKAJV.

Under the agreement with Energy Resources, Thiess will provide coal handling and preparation plant (CHPP) asset management services at the Ukhaa Khudag mine. The scope includes asset management, supply chain management, technical support and planning services to support efficient, reliable operations.

The award extends Thiess’ long-standing relationship with Energy Resources and reflects a shared commitment to safety, operational excellence and continuous improvement.


https://im-mining.com/2026/10/22/thiess-wins-long-term-mining-services-contracts-in-mongolia/

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Steel

European Steel Market Under Pressure from Import Quotas and Rising Costs

The European steel market is entering the final quarter of the year amid tightening import quotas, high energy costs and weak demand. Under the new EU measures that came into force on 1 July 2026, steel import quotas were reduced by approximately 47%, while the out-of-quota tariff was increased to 50%. These changes are increasing cost pressures and supply uncertainty for exporters to Europe, including Turkish steel producers.

As of 19 October, hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices stood at €750/t in Germany, €740–750/t in Italy and Poland, and €750/t in Spain, on an EXW basis. Cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices were reported at €855/t in Germany, €850/t in Italy, €870/t in Poland and €840/t in Spain. Hot-dip galvanized (HDG) prices stood at €830/t in Germany, €835/t in Italy, €865/t in Poland and €840/t in Spain, on an EXW basis. Plate prices were reported at €840/t in Germany and €770/t in Italy.

Although European producers are attempting to push prices higher, weak and sluggish demand is making increases difficult to implement. According to market feedback from Spain, reduced imports could leave the European market facing a potential supply shortfall of approximately 2 million tonnes. This could make price increases inevitable in the medium term, although significant rises are not expected before the second quarter of 2027. The outlook suggests that weak demand will continue to limit prices in the short term, while tightening supply could become a more decisive factor over time.

Meanwhile, the gap between high energy costs and weak demand is widening, particularly in Northern Italy, where electric-arc furnace (EAF) steel mills are concentrated. Producers are struggling to pass rising costs on to customers, raising concerns that some mills may be forced to suspend production. Geopolitical tensions and global trade disputes are adding to market uncertainty.

Outlook: Weak demand is expected to constrain price increases in the short term, while the impact of import quotas on supply is likely to become more pronounced over time. Energy costs and the potential supply shortfall could be key factors shaping price movements, particularly as the market approaches the second quarter of 2027.


https://eurometal.net/european-steel-market-under-pressure-from-import-quotas-and-rising-costs/

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Iron Ore

Dalian Iron Ore Prices

Iron ore futures declined toward CNY 670 per ton, reaching their lowest level in four years after China’s state-backed iron ore buyer secured a new supply agreement with Rio Tinto, easing concerns over supply availability. The China Mineral Resources Group verbally informed several steel mills of the deal on Wednesday, although specific terms were not disclosed. CMRG had previously instructed some steel mills to suspend negotiations with Rio Tinto over shipments scheduled from September. Meanwhile, rising global shipments and increased arrivals at Chinese ports signaled abundant supply. Industry data showed that global iron ore shipments rose by 3.89 million tons week-on-week to 34.77 million tons in the week ending October 18. Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by a combined 4.79 million tons to 29.82 million tons, while iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports climbed by 2.73 million tons to 28.35 million tons over the same period.


https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/iron-ore-cny

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Coal

The Effect of the APU Attacks on Russian Refineries has Reached China: Coal Does not Reach from Mongolia


Mongolian enterprises lack diesel fuel and the supply of coking coal to China has declined. The effect of the APU attacks on Russian refineries has reached the PRC.

In September, coal exports from Mongolia's exports to China declined and became the second lowest this year. According to the analytical agency Mysteel Global, referring to the data of the Main Customs Administration of Mongolia, this was due to continuing restrictions on the supply of coal through a key border crossing point on the border with China — the only direction to which Mongolian coal was exported last month.

"In September, the total volume of coal exports from Mongolia amounted to 8.41 million tons, which is about 11% less than the previous month," Mysteel reports.

The reason for the decline is the shortage of diesel fuel in Mongolia, whose main supplier is Russia. According to Mysteel, diesel fuel reserves in the country were falling to critical. They remained for only 13-15 days at the usual level of consumption.

At the same time, diesel fuel is a key resource for the Mongolian mining sector, especially for the operation of open-pit mining equipment, and for hundreds of trucks that carry coal to the border with China.

The current decline in the supply of Mongolian coal to The PRC was the first decline in export volumes for the whole of 2026. Before that, Mongolian exports were steadily growing and in April reached a historical record of 11.3 million tons.

Erratic supply and logistical disruptions also led to congestion at the border, which further aggravated the situation. According to Mysteel, on October 8, the Cabinet of Ministers of Mongolia even issued a special order to local officials to urgently eliminate congestion at six interchanges around the key Gashuunsukhayt/Ganzmod border crossing in order to speed up the passage of coking coal vehicles for Chinese steel mills.


https://www.eadaily.com/en/news/2026/10/22/the-effect-of-the-apu-attacks-on-russian-refineries-has-reached-china-coal-does-not-reach-from-mongolia

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