Ras Laffan, Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) production hub, bombed by Iran. Courtesy of Reuters/Yonhap News
The war between the United States and Iran has halted one-third of the world's helium (He) production, threatening the global semiconductor manufacturing industry. Analysts predict a particularly significant impact on South Korean semiconductor companies, which primarily source helium from the Middle East.
According to The New York Times (NYT) on the 27th (local time), the helium scarcity caused by the Middle East war is expected to affect global semiconductor production.
Helium, a colorless and odorless gas at room temperature, is widely used across industry and science and is considered an essential material for semiconductor chip manufacturing. It is used to cool silicon wafers during the circuit-etching process and to remove toxic residues left on the wafers.
Helium is a byproduct of natural gas processing and is primarily produced in the United States and Qatar.
Qatar produces about one-third of the global supply through its refining facilities in the Ras Laffan industrial complex. Iran's attack on Qatar's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility destroyed the helium production plant, which is expected to take about five years to repair.
While there is helium that was shipped before the war broke out, temperature-sensitive liquid helium can only be stored for about a month and a half. A tangible helium shortage is projected to be felt within a few weeks.
Disruptions to major semiconductor chip production at companies like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Taiwan's TSMC could have a chain effect on smartphone manufacturing and the construction of artificial intelligence (AI) servers.
TSMC told the NYT regarding the helium shortage, "We are closely monitoring the situation and do not expect a significant impact at this time." Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix reportedly declined to comment.
According to the international credit rating agency Fitch, about two-thirds of the helium imported by South Korea last year came from Qatar. This suggests that Korean companies could be hit harder.
During past helium shortages, cash-rich semiconductor manufacturers secured priority access by offering the highest prices, leading to supply shortages in other helium-dependent sectors such as pharmaceuticals and medical imaging.
Powell will participate in a moderated conversation at Harvard University's economics course and will likely talk about the ongoing Iran war and its effects on inflation.
Written by Sunil Dhawan
March 30, 2026 12:16 IST
Market directions will be influenced by the outcome of the Iran war, with oil prices and the dollar's movement serving as key indicators. (The New York Times)
All eyes will be on US Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech today. Powell will be speaking at 10:30 a.m. ET on March 30 at Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Powell is scheduled to take part in a moderated conversation at Harvard University’s course on principles of economics.
Powell is expected to talk about the ongoing Iran war and its impact on inflation, as oil prices have risen more than 40% since the war began. Brent trades at $115, up over 60% since the war began.
“Should oil remain elevated, this does not bode well for stocks, as high oil prices function as a tax on nearly every aspect of economic activity, and stocks are reflecting this. For equities to gain a foothold, oil prices must drop,” says Aaron Hill, Chief Market Analyst, FP Markets.
The Dow has entered the correction zone after falling 10% from its most recent peak. Since the war began, the S&P 500 and Dow indices have been down nearly 8%. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the value of the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.3% to 100.16.
It’s not clear yet how much of the price increase has permeated goods and services. The Iran war began on February 28, so will the March US CPI data reveal the real impact? It is unlikely.
The March US CPI data is expected in mid-April, but because inflation takes 6-8 weeks to be reflected in prices, the April US CPI data, which will be released in May, will be critical to the future rate path.
Meanwhile, Powell is expected to maintain his position that incoming data should be considered before deciding whether to cut interest rates. Unlike the situation before the war, markets now expect the US Fed to cut rates only once in 2026, rather than twice this year.
As of now, all options are on the table, including a rate hike. There are some market experts who believe the US Fed might not just refrain from cutting rates but even go for a hike, in case inflation reignites in the economy.
Powell, whose tenure as Fed chair expires in May, has stated that he will not resign his position as a member of the Fed’s board of governors until the investigation into the management of the central bank’s renovations is fully closed. The Senate Banking Committee plans to hold a hearing on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to chair the Federal Reserve by the week of April 13, reported Reuters.
Iran War Latest
Tensions heightened as President Donald Trump suggested the possibility of seizing oil in Iran, specifically targeting Kharg Island, reminiscent of a recent US military operation in Venezuela.
The US is preparing for extended ground operations in Iran following the arrival of additional troops, while Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen have engaged in the conflict, targeting Israel.
Data Releases
The U.S. jobs report for March is set to be released on Friday, amid increasing scrutiny of the labor market following a reduction of 92,000 jobs in February. Additionally, private sector hiring data for March will be available through the ADP report on Wednesday. The US stock market will be closed on Friday, April 3, on account of Good Friday.
Which way the Iran war turns will set the direction for the markets. Keep an eye on oil prices and the dollar’s movement to determine the direction of the wind.
Foreign Ministers Badr Abdelatty of Egypt, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud of Saudi Arabia, Ishaq Dar of Pakistan and Hakan Fidan of Turkey meet to discuss regional de-escalation, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Islamabad, Pakistan, on March 29, 2026.
Middle East leaders are meeting in Pakistan on Sunday to discuss the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, as U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly weighs deploying ground troops into the conflict that is now stretching into its second month.
The foreign ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt all arrived in Islamabad as Iran continues to target the U.S.'s allies in the Middle East. The representatives will discuss the "evolving regional situation and advancing peace and stability, while strengthening our partnership and deepening cooperation across diverse domains," according to a post on X from Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar.
The meeting comes as Pakistan emerges as a potential mediator in talks to end the war between the U.S. and Iran, which began last month when the U.S. and Israel launched a strike that killed Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Trump, meanwhile, is reportedly weighing the deployment of U.S. ground troops into the conflict as Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz largely closed — sending shockwaves through the markets and spiking oil and gasoline prices.
The Washington Post reported Saturday night that the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of potential ground conflict in Iran as thousands of U.S. troops arrive in the region. It's unclear if Trump will green-light the operations, as he claims that the war effort is both winding down while threatening to escalate the conflict.
Lawmakers, who just left Washington for a two-week recess, on Sunday expressed some hesitation about a potential full-scale invasion of Iran with U.S. forces. But top Republicans appeared to give Trump partial approval for some use of U.S. ground troops.
Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that his support for the use of ground troops "depends on what boots we're putting on the ground," arguing that the use of special forces units for specific goals is different than a longstanding occupation and ground war, which he said would require congressional authorization.
"If we had a long-standing war that's happening, go back again to what happened in Iraq or in Afghanistan, yes," Lankford said on congressional approval. "If this is to protect Americans and to be able to make sure that we're in there for a season and we're stopping and getting out, that's very, very different. So again, this is all contingent."
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/29/bahrain-aluminum-giant-says-iranian-attack-targeted-its-facilit.html
The ministry assured that safety protocols and monitoring mechanisms would remain in place to prevent misuse or diversion of subsidised kerosene.
New Delhi: The Centre has eased petroleum safety and licensing norms to fast-track the distribution of kerosene to households, as cooking fuel supplies face disruption due to the ongoing Iran war.
The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas said in a notification that the relaxation would facilitate ad-hoc distribution of kerosene for cooking and lighting across 21 states and Union Territories.
Under the revised norms, select fuel stations operated by public sector oil companies such as Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited have been authorised to store and sell kerosene directly to consumers. Each outlet can stock up to 5,000 litres, with a maximum of two such stations permitted per district.
The measure targets regions that had earlier transitioned to being “kerosene-free,” including states like Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. These temporary provisions will remain in force for 60 days to tackle immediate supply shortages.
Apart from fuel stations, kerosene will also be supplied through the public distribution system, with states urged to prioritise rural areas.
The government’s move comes against the backdrop of global energy supply disruptions triggered by tensions in West Asia, which have impacted LNG availability and raised concerns over LPG shortages. To address this, an additional 48,000 kilolitres of kerosene have been allocated to states over and above their regular quota.
Officials said kerosene is being reintroduced as an alternative fuel to ensure uninterrupted access to cooking and lighting, particularly for vulnerable households.
The ministry assured that safety protocols and monitoring mechanisms would remain in place to prevent misuse or diversion of subsidised kerosene.
Meanwhile, alternative arrangements are also being put in place to ease pressure on LPG demand. The Ministry of Coal has directed Coal India Limited and Singareni Collieries Company Limited to increase coal supplies to states for distribution among small and medium consumers.
States have also been advised to expedite the rollout of new PNG connections for both domestic and commercial users.
Bengaluru, March 29: The Karnataka Department of Food, Civil Supplies and Consumer Affairs has clarified that there is no shortage of Auto LPG in the State and that supply remains stable and adequate across all regions.
According to the official release, Auto LPG is currently available at 72 Auto LPG Dispensing Stations (ALDS) across Karnataka, including 31 stations in Bengaluru. These stations are operated by public sector oil marketing companies such as Indian Oil Corporation Limited, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited. The price of Auto LPG is ₹77.74 per litre.
The government noted that supply has in fact increased in recent days. Public sector OMCs dispensed an average of 64.9 metric tonnes of Auto LPG per day over the last week, compared to 57.6 metric tonnes per day prior to the conflict, reflecting a steady rise in availability.
In addition to Auto LPG, the State continues to receive and distribute approximately 4 lakh domestic LPG cylinders and around 18,000 commercial LPG cylinders daily, ensuring that household and business needs are met without disruption.
The State Government reiterated that it is closely monitoring the situation and coordinating with oil companies to ensure uninterrupted LPG supply across all sectors, urging citizens not to panic.
Fresh drilling activity and collaboration with international partners lift South Sudan’s production, with further gains expected from ongoing investment and field development.
South Sudan is stepping up efforts to increase oil production as higher global crude prices drive renewed investment in its energy sector, officials said.
The Ministry of Petroleum has intensified engagement with joint operating companies to accelerate output, focusing on key oil blocks managed by both international and domestic firms, according to undersecretary Chol Deng Thon Abel.
Speaking in Juba, he said the discussions involve major operators such as Dar Petroleum Operating Company and partners including China National Petroleum Corporation, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, and Nile Petroleum Corporation.
Recent drilling at the Al Nahal field in Blocks 3 and 7 has delivered encouraging results. One well is producing more than 5,000 barrels per day, contributing to a rise in national output.
Deng said production has increased from about 95,000 barrels per day to around 100,000 barrels per day following the latest developments.
Ling Zongfa, president of Dar Petroleum Operating Company, said the company has drilled 16 wells since resuming operations in October, with 12 already brought online. “Production has exceeded initial forecasts due to improved reservoir management and the use of new technologies,” he said.
He added that continued studies and investment are expected to further boost output and support the country’s economic growth.
https://africaenergypulse.com/south-sudan-ramps-up-oil-output-as-global-crude-prices-climb
Russia's Ust-Luga port damaged by Ukrainian drones, fire breaks out
Ukrainian Drone Attack Sparks Fire at Ust-Luga Port
MOSCOW, March 29 (Reuters) - Russia's Ust-Luga port, one of its largest petroleum export outlets, was damaged on Sunday in a Ukrainian drone attack that sparked a fire, Russian officials said.
Escalation of Drone Attacks on Russian Oil Infrastructure
Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russia's oil and fuel export infrastructure this month, hitting all three of Russia's major western oil export ports, including Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea.
Impact on Russian Oil Exports
Those attacks have caused severe oil supply disruption for Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, and have hit Moscow just as oil prices exceeded $100 a barrel due to the Iran war.
Details of the Ust-Luga Port Incident
The governor of Russia's northern Leningrad region said there had been waves of Ukrainian drone attacks on the area and that a fire had broken out at the port of Ust-Luga, which was also hit by drones on Wednesday.
Significance of Ust-Luga Port
The port, operated by Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft, handles around 700,000 barrels per day of oil exports, and, according to sources, shipped 32.9 million metric tons of oil products in 2025.
Ukrainian Statement on the Attack
Ukraine's SBU security agency said long-range drones struck an oil terminal at Ust-Luga. It added in a statement that the strike caused "serious damage" and a fire at the port.
Uncertainty Over Damage Assessment
Reuters was unable to immediately verify the scale of the damage.
(Reporting by Reuters. Editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Mark Potter)
https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/russias-ust-luga-port-damaged-ukrainian-drones-fire-breaks/
Blockade of strait, one of the world’s busiest maritime routes, would prove disastrous for global economy.
Houthi supporters hold up mock missiles and drones during an anti-US and anti-Israel protest in Sana'a, Yemen, 09 May 2025.
Published On 29 Mar 2026
Yemen’s Houthis have entered the Iran war by launching strikes on Israel, and some analysts have warned their arrival could open another front in the conflict – the potential blockade of Bab al-Mandeb, a strait that presents another chokepoint in the global commodities trade.
Brigadier-General Yahya Saree, a military spokesperson for the Houthis, announced on Saturday the Iranian-backed group’s first attack on Israel. On Sunday, he said the Houthis had carried out a “second military operation” against Israel using cruise missiles and drones and said the Houthis would continue carrying out military operations in the coming days until Israel “ceases its attacks and aggression”.
Does the Houthis’ warning raise the prospect of a broader regional war, particularly given the group’s ability to block Bab al-Mandeb and strike targets far beyond Yemen?
Here’s what we know:
(Al Jazeera)
Why have the Houthis joined the war?
So far, unlike Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraqi armed groups, the Houthis have not made any formal announcement of joining the war.
While Iran champions the Houthis as part of its “axis of resistance”, Houthi religious doctrine does not adhere to Iran’s supreme leader in the same way Hezbollah’s and the Iraqi groups’ do. Iran has built the “axis of resistance” of like-minded factions to oppose Israel and the United States across the region.
Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, reporting from Tehran, said the Houthis joining the war will be welcomed by Iran.
“Speaking of the broader context, we have to keep in mind that over the past months and years, officials in Tehran have said the Houthis in Yemen are close allies. But their decision-making and actions are largely independent,” he said.
“Still, geopolitically, Iran is likely to see this as a significant development,” he added.
Negar Mortazavi, a senior nonresident fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that the entrance of the Houthis into the fighting is “no surprise”, noting that Iranian actions have been in accordance with their statements.
“Every step has really been what they have telegraphed, what they have threatened even before the war when they went to their Gulf Cooperation Council neighbours and they warned that this [the war] is not going to be inside their borders and they are going to immediately turn it into a regional war,” she told Al Jazeera.
But Nabeel Khoury, a former US diplomat, told Al Jazeera that the missile attacks launched by the Houthis against Israel amounted to “token participation, not full participation”.
“They have fired a couple of missiles as a warning because of all the talk of potential escalation. There are US troops on their way to the region. There’s been talk that if there is no agreement, there might be a full-scale attack on Iran as has not been seen so far,” the former deputy chief of mission in Yemen told Al Jazeera.
“So for all that, the Houthis are saying, ‘We are still here, and if you’re really going to go all-out against Iran, we will then jump in.’ But at this point, they haven’t yet jumped in.”
If they do, Khoury said, their most significant move would be blocking Bab al-Mandeb with boats, mines or missiles.
“All they have to do is fire at a couple of ships coming through, and that would lead to the arrest of all commercial shipping through the Red Sea,” he said. “That would be a red line, and then you would see attacks against Yemen very quickly.”
The passage of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz has almost entirely ground to a halt after Iran targeted vessels passing through the waterway. The closure has caused a global energy crisis, adding inflationary pressure to economies across the globe. Several countries have been forced to impose fuel rationing and reduce working hours to conserve energy.
Where is Bab al-Mandeb?
The strait sits between Yemen to its northeast and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa to its southwest. It connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, which then extends into the Indian Ocean. It is 29km (18 miles) wide at its narrowest point, limiting traffic to two channels for inbound and outbound shipments and is de facto controlled by the Houthis.
It is one of the world’s most important routes for global seaborne commodity shipments, particularly crude oil and other fuel from the Gulf bound for the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal or the Sumed (Suez-Mediterranean) Pipeline on Egypt’s Red Sea coast as well as commodities bound for Asia, including Russian oil.
Reporting from Sanaa, Yemen, Al Jazeera’s Yousef Mawry said the main card in the war for the Houthis is Bab al-Mandeb.
“With the Strait of Hormuz closed off to US and Israeli shipping, if the Houthis also decide to block Bab al-Mandeb, it’s only going to make the situation economically a lot worse for Israel,” Mawry said.
“As of right now, shipping is still available for all vessels, including US- and Israeli-linked vessels. The Yemeni group has not imposed a blockade for the time being. That’s expected in the next phase if Israel decides to target the port of Hodeidah or Yemeni civilian and public infrastructure.”
Can this strait be blocked by the Houthis?
Neither the Houthis nor Iran has commented on whether there is a plan to block one of the world’s busiest maritime routes.
But on Wednesday, an unnamed Iranian military official said Iran could open a new front at Bab al-Mandeb if attacks are carried out on Iranian territory or its islands, the country’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency said.
Then on Saturday, Mohammed Mansour, the Houthis’ deputy information minister, told local media that the group is “conducting this battle in stages, and closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait is among our options”.
Al Jazeera’s Asadi said that so far in the war, Iran has sought leverage through the Strait of Hormuz but now attention is turning to another key chokepoint, likely Bab al-Mandeb.
“If that were to be disrupted, it would provide additional leverage for Iran and its allies amid ongoing air attacks by Israel and the US,” he said.
Elisabeth Kendall, a Middle East specialist and the president of Girton College at Cambridge University, told Al Jazeera that if this strait is blocked, it would create a “nightmare scenario”.
“Because if you have restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz at the same time as restrictions are escalating in the Bab al-Mandeb, then you really will disrupt, if not cripple, trade toward Europe. So this is a knife edge, really, depending on what happens next,” she told Al Jazeera.
“Going to actually strike the Red Sea at the moment when it’s one of the more dependable routes out,and oil is going out via Yanbu from Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea, that would be a bit of a game-changer,” she added, referring to Saudi Arabia’s alternative route to export oil.
Kendall, however, said that while this was a “sweet spot” for the Houthis, she noted that the Yemeni group might not want to “provoke a Saudi or indeed a broader response.”
The Houthis previously carried out attacks in the Red Sea in 2024 when they targeted commercial ships. The Houthis then said they were targeting Israel-linked or Israel-bound vessels in protest against Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.
Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis’ current posture reflects a deliberate calculation rather than restraint born of weakness.
“The Houthis today didn’t attack the Red Sea or speak even about escalation in the Red Sea. They just attacked Israel directly,” Nagi noted.
“That choice matters. The Bab al-Mandeb, linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, remains one of the most sensitive arteries in the global economy. About 10 percent of global trade and a significant share of oil and gas shipments pass through it,” he said.
For now, Nagi suggested the Houthis are aligning their moves with Tehran’s broader strategy.
“The aim is to support the Iranians in their negotiations, … and they are betting that maybe there will be a way out, so there will not be a need to use Bab al-Mandeb.”
Kenmare has in recent months let 200 employees go at Moma, and is targeting a further 20 redundancies under a cost-cutting plan, chief executive Tom Hickey told The Irish Times.
Kenmare Resources is laying off 15 per cent of staff working at its key Moma mine in Mozambique and suspending its final dividend as its gross profit plunged 79 per cent amid a slump in shipments and prices of its titanium minerals.
The Dublin-based group also swung into a net loss of USD 325 million (€280 million) last year, driven by a US$301.3 million impairment charge taken against it Moma assets as it lowered its long-term revenue assumptions amid uncertainty over pricing, it said in a statement on Wednesday.
Kenmare has in recent months let 200 employees go at Moma, and is targeting a further 20 redundancies under a cost-cutting plan, chief executive Tom Hickey told The Irish Times. Kenmare Resources said earlier this month that it may have no choice but to bring international arbitration proceedings against Mozambique after tax authorities there sought to “unilaterally” impose a new regime on royalties and VAT on the titanium miner’s processing and exporting activities in the country.
President William Ruto has hosted Mozambique President Daniel Francisco Chapo at State House, Nairobi, ahead of his three-day State Visit to Kenya. Speaking during a live event at State House, Nairobi, on Thursday, March 26, 2026, Ruto highlighted the deep cooperation between Kenya and Mozambique. On his part, the president noted that Kenya enjoys strong relations with Mozambique, grounded in a shared commitment to deepen cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
“Kenya enjoys strong relations with Mozambique grounded in a shared commitment to deepen cooperation in areas of mutual interest,” Ruto said.In addition, Ruto explained the Kenya Kwanza administration’s move to strengthen trade and economic cooperation, while unlocking untapped and underutilised opportunities.
https://trendsnafrica.com/mozambiques-kenmare-resources-laying-off-15-staff-as-gross-profit-plunges/
Gemfields recorded a loss in 2025 amid weak demand, falling prices for its goods and the recovery of lower-quality rubies.
The miner reported a loss of $50.9 million for the full year, it said last week. However, the deficit was gentler than the $100.8 million loss the miner posted a year ago. The narrower loss is primarily the result of the miner bringing its Kagem emerald deposit in Zambia back online following a temporary shutdown, as well as cost-saving measures it implemented within its business.
Revenue fell 32% to $135.1 million, reflecting lower demand for emeralds and a reduction in the recovery of premium rubies from its Montepuez mine in Mozambique, it explained. A delay in the commissioning of a new processing plant at Montepuez and heightened illegal mining also played a part, Gemfields stated.
The company reduced its operating costs to $128.9 million from $156.2 million in 2024 through measures that included selling its Fabergé business for $50 million.
“This was a difficult year, with operational disruptions at both Montepuez and Kagem constraining our premium-gemstone production, auction cadence and cash generation,” said Gemfields CEO Sean Gilbertson. “Seven auctions generated just $129 million, reflecting both the shortfalls in gemstone availability and bumpy market conditions, despite continued pricing resilience at the top end of the ruby and emerald quality spectrum.”
During the year, the company lowered its net debt from $80.4 million to $39.3 million.
However, the miner sees difficulties persisting in the beginning of 2026.
“The first half is expected to remain challenging as we iron out the new processing plant’s teething issues,” Gilbertson added. “We continue to monitor the challenging geopolitical developments closely. The situation in the Middle East has already increased costs…and any further escalation could materially impact cost and market conditions.”
Image: Polished emeralds from the Kagem mine. (Gemfields)
https://rapaport.com/news/gemfields-loss-narrows-even-as-revenue-falls/
Aluminium Bahrain, also known as Alba, confirmed early Sunday that its facilities were targeted in an Iranian attack a day earlier, Bahrain's state news agency reported.
Alba said two people were mildly injured in the attack, adding that it was assessing damage in the facilities.
The confirmation comes after Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they targeted Alba and Emirates Global Aluminium in response to attacks on two Iranian steel plants. The IRGC said, without elaborating, that the two companies had ties to US military and aeronautics firms.
Reuters could not independently verify the IRGC's claims.
In early March, Alba initiated a shutdown of three aluminum smelting lines, accounting for 19% of its capacity, to preserve business continuity amid ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. It followed a company force majeure on March 4, as it was unable to ship metal to customers due to the closure of the strategic strait.
Saudi Arabia, UAE face drone, missile threat
On Sunday, the Saudi Defense Ministry announced on X/Twitter that it intercepted 10 drones over a few hours.
Earlier, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) faced missile and drone attacks from Iran on Saturday, the UAE Defense Ministry published on X/Twitter.
"UAE Air Defense systems are actively engaging with missiles and UAV threats," the ministry announced, while also noting that explosions were heard around the country as a result of its air defense systems.
Kuwait confronts drone attacks
Similar to the UAE's missile and drone attacks from Iran, Kuwait has been registering air threats on Saturday, the state's General Staff of the Army confirmed.
The Persian Gulf conflict has triggered a second global energy supply crisis, accelerating the collapse of the narrative of natural gas as a 'transition fuel.'
Major economies in Asia and Europe are reverting to coal, with coal-fired power generation in Europe potentially surging by 20% this summer. India, Japan, and Bangladesh are racing to restart coal-fired power units. Meanwhile, capital markets are betting on renewable energy.
The Persian Gulf conflict is reshaping the global energy landscape. As natural gas supplies suffer severe disruptions, major economies in Asia and Europe are reverting to coal while simultaneously accelerating the deployment of renewable energy. A profound shift in energy strategy is quietly unfolding.
Samantha Dart, Global Co-Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, warned: "We are now facing a second, massive energy supply shock. If you are in Asia and experience this situation again, you might reconsider your long-term strategy—relying more heavily on coal for a longer period, accelerating the development of renewable energy, and reducing dependence on natural gas." This assessment is being validated by market actions.
From Japan's announcement to expand the use of inefficient coal-fired power plants, to India's directive for coal-fired power plants to delay maintenance and operate at full capacity, to European nations reassessing their timelines for phasing out coal, the narrative of natural gas as a 'transition fuel' is rapidly collapsing. Meanwhile, capital markets have already voted with their feet—leading Chinese battery and renewable energy companies have significantly outperformed international oil giants in stock prices.
Collapse of the 'transition fuel' narrative for natural gas and a strong resurgence in coal demand
The natural gas supply shock triggered by the Iran war marks the second major energy crisis in less than four years following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, along with subsequent retaliatory attacks on Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, could result in years of supply disruptions. The European natural gas benchmark price currently stands at approximately 54 euros per megawatt-hour, surpassing the 50-euro threshold that analysts believe will trigger a large-scale shift to coal-fired power.
According to Bloomberg, power analysts at the London Stock Exchange Group estimate that if the European natural gas benchmark price remains around 50 euros per megawatt-hour, coal-fired power generation in Europe could increase by about 20% this summer compared to the same period last year. The Netherlands, Poland, and the Czech Republic are all facing pressure to increase coal usage, while Germany is considering restarting mothballed coal-fired power plants to lower electricity prices. According to Bloomberg NEF data, coal-fired power capacity in Europe has declined by 45% since 2015, but the existing capacity is still sufficient to act as a buffer during crises.
Tony Knutson, Head of Global Thermal Coal Markets at Wood Mackenzie, stated that this shock affects more countries than the Russia-Ukraine war, calling it 'a larger disruption.' Nations lacking sufficient natural gas supplies have no choice but to rely on coal as a lever. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), also noted that high energy prices will drive governments, industries, and households to seek alternatives, and it is 'unsurprising' that coal consumption faces upward pressure.
Asia bears the brunt, with India, Japan, and Bangladesh accelerating their shift toward coal
Asia is the epicenter of this round of shocks. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are all major global importers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) while maintaining large-scale coal-fired power units, with both the capacity and motivation to switch quickly. Japan has announced that more coal-fired power plants will be allowed to participate in capacity auctions, and the use of inefficient coal power will be expanded; South Korea has also indicated it is considering easing restrictions on high-pollution electricity. The Newcastle Coal Futures, a benchmark for Asian thermal coal, have surged by about one-third this year, reaching the highest level since 2024.
India's situation is particularly typical. Authorities have required coal-fired power plants to postpone voluntary maintenance shutdowns and instructed Tata Power Company’s 4-gigawatt plant in Gujarat—previously shut down for several months—to operate at full capacity until the monsoon season arrives in June. Coal India Ltd.’s stock price reached its highest point since 2024 earlier this month. Anandji Prasad, Technical Director of the company’s Western Coalfields subsidiary, stated that this crisis “has given coal new leverage in India” and emphasized the urgency of substituting coal for petroleum products and natural gas.
Bangladesh is in an even more severe situation. According to Bloomberg, the country’s new government has been forced to seek a $2 billion loan to import sufficient fuel to get through the summer while planning to run coal-fired power plants at maximum capacity in the near future. Shafiqul Alam, Chief Analyst for Bangladesh at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, pointed out that as LNG prices rise and power shortages worsen, coal will assume a greater share of baseload supply.
Capital markets are betting on an accelerated energy transition, with renewable energy stocks outperforming oil giants.
Running parallel to the short-term rebound in coal demand is the capital market’s clear bet on a long-term acceleration of the energy transition.
Since the outbreak of the Iran war, leading Chinese battery and electric vehicle companies$CATL (03750.HK)$ and $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ have seen their share prices rise by over 15%, significantly outperforming $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$ and $Chevron (CVX.US)$. Investors generally believe that this shock will accelerate the substitution of fossil fuels with batteries and energy storage systems from both cost and supply security perspectives.
In the European market, Chinese auto brands such as BYD and Leapmotor are regaining momentum amid soaring oil prices. Sales rebounded in February, and the Middle East conflict further increased fuel costs, enhancing the attractiveness of electric vehicles.
Coal is a short-term emergency option, but this crisis is accelerating countries’ reevaluation of their energy mix, bringing renewable energy development onto a more urgent agenda.
Doug Arent, senior researcher at the WRI Polsky Global Energy Transition Center, stated that coal demand in 2026 "will definitely not decline as predicted before the war," while emphasizing that the top priority now is to "maintain power supply and production efficiency." The International Energy Agency's previous forecast that global coal demand would decline by 1.4% by 2027 is now facing serious challenges.
