The value of Belarusian potash exports to China exceeded $1 billion by the end of September, according to Chinese customs statistics for the first nine months of the year.
Between January and September, China imported nearly 2.9 million tonnes of Belarusian potassium chloride (commodity code 31042090), up 85.5% from the same period last year. The value of imports increased 2.3-fold to $1.01 billion.
In September this year, China imported 313,100 tonnes of potassium chloride from Belarus worth $107 million. Import volumes increased 3.7-fold compared with the same month last year, while their value rose 3.6-fold.
The average import price for Belarusian potassium chloride in January–September 2026 was $348.8 per tonne, compared with approximately $282.8 per tonne last year. In September 2026, the average import price was $341.6 per tonne, compared with $356.3 per tonne a year earlier.
China’s total imports of potassium chloride (commodity code 31042090) from all countries reached 12.8 million tonnes in January–September, up 47.6% from the same period last year. In value terms, imports increased by 76% to $4.52 billion.
In September, China purchased 1.37 million tonnes of potassium chloride, up 24.5% year-on-year. The value of imports rose by 27.4% to $491.3 million.
According to Chinese customs statistics, the total value of China’s imports of goods from Belarus increased by 39.7% to $1.626 billion over the nine-month period. Potash fertilizers accounted for 62.2% of China’s total imports from Belarus.
https://reform.news/en/value-of-belarusian-potash-exports-to-china-exceeds-1-billion/
Commenting on the markets, Tom Holl, Mark Hume and Charlie Brew, representing the Investment Manager noted:
The Company’s three underlying components, Mining, Conventional Energy and Energy Transition, delivered mixed performance during September. Mining was the largest detractor to returns, followed by Energy Transition, while Conventional Energy made a modest positive contribution.
Within Mining, our Diversified, Copper and Gold exposures were the largest detractors. The gold price declined 6.2% over the month, as a stronger US dollar and rising US Treasury yields weighed on precious metals and gold equities. Copper prices were broadly unchanged, but copper and diversified mining shares weakened against a backdrop of higher discount rates, softer industrial metals prices and concerns about rising energy-related operating costs.
Within Conventional Energy, our Integrated and Refining & Marketing exposures contributed positively, while Oil Services, Distribution and Exploration & Production detracted. Brent crude rose 15.8% over the month to US$104/bbl amid continued disruption to Middle Eastern energy supply. Higher oil prices and robust refining margins supported integrated producers and downstream businesses, although weakness in oilfield services and other energy holdings limited the sector’s overall contribution.
Within Energy Transition, Renewables was the largest detractor, while Electrification and Storage holdings also declined. Rising longer-dated US Treasury yields weighed on more interest-rate-sensitive renewable energy businesses and utilities, as investors reassessed financing costs and valuations. Electrical infrastructure and energy storage exposures also faced a challenging market backdrop, despite continued structural demand for electricity networks, storage and power capacity associated with electrification and data centres.
Figures sourced from Datastream; prices quoted in US dollar terms unless specified otherwise as at 30 September 2026.
21 October 2026
Iranian speedboats approach a cargo ship near the Persian Gulf (Photo: Getty).
"Iran forced US warships and frigates to leave the Strait of Hormuz," Hossein Mohebi, spokesman for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), declared on October 20.
According to Mohebi, Iran forced US warships to move about 700km away from the Strait of Hormuz.
"Before the conflict, there were between 30 and 40 US Navy ships present in the Persian Gulf, but now they have withdrawn 700km from the Strait of Hormuz," the spokesperson emphasized.
" The Strait of Hormuz is completely closed. Even if a few small vessels attempt to pass through the strait with their navigation systems turned off, that doesn't mean the strait is open for navigation," Mohebi added. He stressed that such actions are nothing short of "theft and smuggling."
According to Mohebi, the amount of oil that the US "smuggles through the Strait of Hormuz" is only about "one to two barrels." "To do that, they have to pay an extremely high price," he warned.
On October 20, Iranian air defense forces also announced that they had shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Strait of Hormuz.
"Last night, IRGC air defense forces, while monitoring airspace over the Strait of Hormuz, detected and immediately shot down an MQ-9 drone," Tasnim quoted the IRGC as saying.
Since the conflict between Washington and Tehran erupted, Iran has claimed to have shot down more than 50 US MQ-9 helicopters.
The MQ-9, costing $30 million, is typically deployed for intelligence gathering and airstrikes against Iranian forces.
Location of the Strait of Hormuz on a map (Photo: NYT).
On the same day, Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced that IRGC mines had blocked three oil tankers attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via routes that Tehran considers illegal.
"Two oil tankers that violated regulations caught fire and were forced to stop after striking mines laid by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sailors at an illegal passage point south of the Strait of Hormuz," the IRGC said.
Later, in a statement broadcast on state television, the force further confirmed that a third oil tanker had “exploded and caught fire after striking a mine south of the Strait of Hormuz.”
The statement said the oil tanker “was carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude oil and had switched off all its radar and navigation equipment.”
Since the outbreak of war in the Middle East, Iranian forces have repeatedly targeted ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via a southern route, near the coast of Oman.
https://www.vietnam.vn/en/iran-tuyen-bo-ban-ha-ac-dieu-mq-9-day-tau-chien-my-cach-xa-hormuz-700km
In the United States, the cost of implementing the Alaska LNG gas project, which the developer estimates at $44.5–54.5 billion, could theoretically reach $89–109 billion under a certain scenario. This was reported by Korea Herald, citing a report by energy consulting company GaffneyCline for the Alaska Senate Natural Resources Committee.
Early-stage estimates
GaffneyCline concluded that the Alaska LNG cost estimate belongs to Class 5 — the least detailed and most uncertain category in the five-level cost-estimating system. According to the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering classification, the typical accuracy range for such estimates is from -20% to -50% on the downside and from +30% to +100% on the upside.
Applying the upper end of this range to Glenfarne Group's $44.5–54.5 billion estimate produces a theoretical total of $89 billion to $109 billion. At the same time, the report emphasizes that this range reflects the general uncertainty of early project estimates rather than a specific forecast of cost overruns for Alaska LNG. It is also unclear whether Glenfarne Group's estimates belong to the same class.
Infrastructure and financing
The consultants analyzed publicly available information rather than a complete set of current engineering and project documentation. The report states that capital expenditures on infrastructure account for 84% of the total cost of supply. The project includes a gas pipeline about 1,300 kilometers long, gas processing facilities, and a liquefaction plant in Nikiski in southern Alaska.
GaffneyCline concluded that more detailed engineering, more reliable cost estimates, and a comprehensive financing structure are needed before the project reaches a final investment decision. Washington includes Alaska LNG among projects covered by South Korea's broader commitment to invest $350 billion in the United States under a bilateral trade agreement. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged Seoul to join the development, but the South Korean government says there is no final investment decision and that participation will depend on commercial viability and national legal requirements.
https://ua.news/en/energetika/vartist-alaska-lng-teoretichno-mozhe-siagnuti-109-mlrd-korea-herald
Robust crude oil flows out of the Middle East in recent weeks have started to pressure the key metric of strength for physical supply out of the region.
The premium of Oman crude over Dubai, the measure of Middle East’s market strength, has slumped this week to the lowest level since the end of July, to $4.22 per barrel, according to data by General Index cited by Bloomberg.
The Oman-Dubai crude differential had soared to as high as $65 in March when the Strait of Hormuz was at a virtual closure and no crude cargoes were moving out of the Middle East. The premium of Oman crude later slipped into a discount in the three weeks in the middle of June and early July, during which the U.S. and Iran were looking to negotiate a deal.
The differential blew out again in August and especially in September, when hostilities resumed.
But as the Middle Eastern producers accelerated shuttle-shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, flows have recovered in recent weeks.
The higher availability, especially of spot cargoes, led to the Oman crude premium to Dubai slumping from as high as $30 per barrel in the middle of September to just above $4 per barrel this week, per data by General Index.
Crude oil flows from the Middle East are recovering; many tanker-tracking services say they are even topping pre-war levels.
But the cost to move the crude out of the region is very high—freight rates have soared to record highs amid a shortage of tankers. The increased oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz, mostly thanks to ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Gulf of Oman, are tying up supertankers for weeks waiting for the transfers outside the Strait, limiting the availability of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) for other key global oil trade routes, such as the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
SMM 21 October News:
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 254,600 mt of copper cathode in September 2026, up 21.15% MoM but down 23.84% YoY. Cumulative imports in January-September 2026 reached 2.1383 million mt, down 16.34% YoY.
China's copper cathode imports rebounded notably MoM in September, but remained sharply lower YoY in absolute terms, below the same period in previous years. The MoM rebound was driven by four factors: 1. Cargoes delayed in August by typhoon-related port congestion gradually arrived in September; 2. The LC price spread narrowed in late August, reducing transshipment volumes to the US; 3. Import arbitrage recovered somewhat; 4. China's social inventory was low, and downstream users had rigid restocking demand during the peak consumption season.
By source country, the DRC remained the largest supplier in September at 101,000 mt, accounting for 39.65%, up 45.71% MoM but down 16.69% YoY. Imports from Russia totaled 53,500 mt, accounting for 21.01%, surging 188.65% MoM and up 17.90% YoY, rising to the second-largest source. Imports from Chile were 17,500 mt, accounting for 6.87%, up 61.74% MoM but down 42.69% YoY. The DRC and Russia together accounted for 60.67%, indicating higher concentration of import sources.
On the export side, the export window opened intermittently again in late September, but exports pulled back slightly MoM while growing YoY, constrained by the sharp spike in domestic spot copper premiums, low social inventory, and tight supply at smelters.
China exported 47,900 mt of copper cathode in September 2026, down 4.92% MoM but up 81.33% YoY. Cumulative exports in January-September 2026 reached 456,900 mt, down 5.55% YoY.
By destination, September exports were mainly transshipment and Southeast Asian markets: Taiwan, China 11,300 mt (23.49%, up 23.28% MoM), Thailand 9,200 mt (19.29%, up 30.92% MoM), Vietnam 8,600 mt (18.00%, up 200.34% MoM), and Hong Kong, China 8,500 mt (17.69%, up 25.40% MoM). These four destinations together accounted for 78.47%. Exports to the US were only 2,700 mt (5.65%), down sharply by 85.36% MoM.
Overall, China's net copper cathode imports in September 2026 were 206,700 mt, up approximately 29.38% MoM from 159,700 mt in August.
Looking ahead, previously port-congested cargoes will continue to arrive in October, but shipping schedules remain unstable during the month, and import arbitrage are only intermittently profitable. With significant uncertainty surrounding the pace of US tariff policy implementation and the COMEX-LME price spread, the MoM growth in imports is expected to be limited. On the export side, the export window is unlikely to remain open, and with low China's inventory and high spot premiums, exports will be constrained by tight supply.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China imported 69,800 tonnes of alumina in September 2026, down 80.04% month on month and up 16.26% year on year. September alumina exports stood at 237,800 tonnes, down 44.05% month on month and down 3.50% year on year. The country recorded a net alumina export of 168,000 tonnes for the month, up 122.64% month on month but down 9.85% year on year.
For January to September 2026, cumulative imports reached 3.06 million tonnes, up 458.365% year on year, while exports totalled 2.58 million tonnes, up 28.85% year on year. China was a net importer of 486,400 tonnes over the nine-month period, up 133.54% year on year.
September imports collapsed to just 69,800 tonnes. By origin, inbound alumina was sourced mainly from Australia and France. The sharp pullback reflected two factors.
First, the import arbitrage remained deeply shut, with Western Australian FOB alumina holding at US $349/tonne to US $354/tonne, and import losses hovering around Yuan 300/tonne, keeping seaborne spot buying minimal amid a persistent internal-external price inversion.
Second, domestic alumina output stayed elevated, with traders' inventories building to roughly 6.95 million tonnes, leaving smelters well stocked on raw materials and with little fresh procurement need.
By destination, September alumina exports flowed mainly to Russia, Oman and the United States. The month-on-month drop in exports was driven by persistently higher ocean freight rates that widened export losses and curbed new trade-booking activity.
That said, the restart of Al Taweelah in the Middle East and Alunorte in Brazil at full capacity has narrowed the regional overseas deficit, while the baseline export flow to Russia driven by captive demand remained intact within normal ranges.
Written by Regina WANG
wangjiaqie@mysteel.com
Goldman Sachs warns that declining discoveries, lower ore grades and rising development costs could constrain global copper supply, as new mines take over 16 years to begin production.
Global copper supply faces a structural constraint as declining discoveries, falling ore grades and rising development costs make new mines increasingly difficult to develop, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The median copper mine now takes more than 16 years from discovery to first production. With output from existing mines expected to begin declining from 2030, higher prices alone may not generate significant additional supply within a typical investment horizon, the report said.
Goldman Sachs described copper’s supply constraint as structural rather than cyclical, suggesting that market prices may need to adjust to reflect the difficulty of bringing new production online. Established producers and projects capable of expanding output could consequently attract greater investor value.
Rising costs add to development challenges
Major copper discoveries have declined since the 1990s, while ore grades have fallen, particularly in South America. New projects are increasingly located in remote areas, adding to construction, operating and capital costs.
Goldman Sachs estimates that average capital intensity rises by around 50% between the pre-feasibility stage and the start of production, increasing from US$10,600 per tonne to US$15,900 per tonne. Its estimated capital costs for projects covered in the report are also 25–90% higher than those outlined in company studies.
The report noted that higher copper prices today cannot deliver new supplies within the next several years, with current investment decisions potentially influencing production levels in the 2040s.
Expansion projects could add future capacity
Goldman Sachs assessed a group of copper growth projects that could collectively add around US$20 billion in net asset value and approximately one million tonnes per annum of additional production by late 2035.
Its assessment used a risk-adjusted valuation framework that considered each project’s development stage, potential cost increases, delays and the conversion of resources into reserves. Earlier-stage projects received larger valuation discounts because their costs, timelines and recoverable reserves remain less certain.
The report said the difficulty of developing new mines could increase the value of established copper producers and credible expansion projects. However, the timing and scale of additional output will depend on project execution, investment decisions and the management of rising development costs.
Source: The Economic Times
FULL DISCLOSURE: Canacom Group is long the equity of Freeport Resources.
Freeport Resources (TSXV: FRI) has repurchased a 1.5% net smelter returns royalty on its Yandera copper project in Papua New Guinea, leaving the company with 100% ownership of the asset and no remaining royalty obligations.
The royalty was created as part of Freeport’s 2020 acquisition of the project. The company did not disclose what it paid to retire the royalty or who held it.
The buyback is part of a strategic review aimed at maximizing the value of Yandera, which Freeport says is significantly undervalued given historical spending on the project, current copper prices and the potential to expand the resource. Removing the royalty, the company said, strengthens its position in ongoing talks with several potential joint venture partners, strategic partners and acquirers.
Nathan Chutas, director and senior vice president of operations, said there is “strong interest in Yandera from potential strategic partners.” He tied that interest to record copper prices and to continued output cuts at Chinese smelters, which are short of copper concentrate. Chutas added that the company wants a partner to help carry the project through a definitive feasibility study, a final investment decision and mine construction.
More than US$200 million has been spent on Yandera since 2005, funding roughly 154,600 metres of drilling, most of it at the Yandera Central deposit. A 2017 prefeasibility study prepared by Worley Parsons outlined a historical measured and indicated resource of 728 million tonnes grading 0.39% copper equivalent.
The feasibility work depends on renewal of exploration licence EL 1335, which covers the 245.5 square kilometre tenement around the project.
The mandatory warden’s hearing for that renewal took place at Yandera on March 25. Landowners, clans and the local member of Parliament turned out in support. The warden’s report then goes to the country’s Mining Advisory Council, which makes a recommendation to the Mining Minister. The results of that hearing are still pending.
Freeport Resources last traded at $0.055 on the TSX Venture.
FULL DISCLOSURE: Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive is long the equity of Freeport Resources. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.
https://thedeepdive.ca/freeport-retires-1-5-royalty-on-yandera-ahead-of-feasibility-push/
A Bloomberg LME Week panel including Macquarie, JPMorgan and Mercuria analysts said US policy and constrained supply, not demand, drive copper. LME three-month copper closed at 14,420.50 USD/tonne on Oct 20. Snowdon said AI capex mainly funds warehouses and chips, making it less metals-intensive than headlines suggest. Fox called the AI boom overhyped; Shearer said data centres will not create a million-tonne deficit, though AI is tied to copper. Snowdon sees AI, data centres and grids lifting US copper demand in 3-5 years. China and Europe demand is weak; about 200,000 tonnes of Chinese copper demand was substituted this year. The US holds 1.6 million tonnes, mostly trader-owned; it charges 50% on semi-finished copper and plans 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028, which Snowdon sees as bullish.
Competitive green production requires appropriate political and economic conditions
Europe needs a common action plan to provide industry with affordable electricity and hydrogen, as the transition to green steel is impossible without solving energy issues. This was stated by Stefan Rauber, Chairman of the Management Board of SHS Group and CEO of the German company Saarstahl.
According to him, at the first stage of the transformation, the company plans to launch new direct reduced iron (DRI) capacities and electric arc furnaces (EAF). By 2028–2029, this will make it possible to produce about 3.5 million tonnes of low-carbon steel per year.
However, competitive green production requires appropriate political and economic conditions:
1) Energy resources and raw materials. Competitive electricity and hydrogen prices are critical for decarbonization. Rauber calls for scaling up the construction of wind and solar power plants and notes that the company is already increasing purchases of ferrous scrap to support production.
2) Protectionism and CBAM. It is necessary to ensure the effective operation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and to maintain trade defense measures against imports of cheap products.
3) Energy security. The halt of Russian gas supplies due to the war in Ukraine has demonstrated Europe’s vulnerability. Rauber noted the dilemma regarding nuclear power: Germany is shutting down its own nuclear power plants but is forced to buy nuclear electricity from France.
The head of Saarstahl noted that the difference in energy prices between EU countries is an underestimated problem. The transition from traditional steelmaking to green technologies is a complex engineering process that requires a holistic European strategy for the entire industry.
As GMK Center reported earlier, the global steel industry is concerned about the slow progress of green steel. According to Worldsteel, about half of the world’s planned green steel projects have already been postponed. At the same time, governments have allocated only $20 billion of the $1.5 trillion needed to decarbonize the sector.
Today, rebar futures consolidated, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,081 yuan/mt, up 0.39% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, most markets held quotes steady in early trading, while some edged up 10 yuan/mt, with overall trading activity being moderate. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, for the long-process route, a few steel mills have already achieved marginal profits from producing construction steel, and with narrowing losses, some mills resumed production as planned. For the short-process route, according to SMM statistics, the operating rate of electric furnace steel mills among 50 major construction steel producers nationwide stood at 32.34%, down 1.16% WoW, mainly due to routine maintenance shutdowns at some electric furnace plants in south China. On the demand side, cold air in the north suppressed purchasing demand, while traders in south China mostly remained on the sidelines, with limited willingness to stockpile for speculative purposes. End-user procurement was mainly need-based at low prices. Overall, construction steel fundamentals currently lack clear drivers. Rebar prices are expected to consolidate in the short term, with attention needed on cost-side changes and steel mill production pace.