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Friday 04 September 2026
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The Burdass Brief - 4th September 2026

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Macro

If a Stock Market Crash Is Coming, This Is Warren Buffett's No. 1 Piece of Advice for Investors Right Now

It's been a turbulent few months for the stock market. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) have all reached record highs in 2026, but they've also wavered recently, with returns in the single digits since May.

There are also a few headwinds that could lead to greater volatility. Tech stocks have been shaky, the odds of an interest rate increase are going up, and the ongoing war in Iran (and yet another surge in oil prices) is wearing on investors.

It's unclear when the next bear market will begin, but it's coming eventually. If there's anyone who has plenty of experience with recessions and market crashes, it's 96-year-old Warren Buffett. And he has a few words of encouraging advice for investors right now.

Closeup shot of Warren Buffett at an event.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Bad news is an investor's best friend

In October 2008, the U.S. was well into the depths of the Great Recession. The S&P 500 had plunged by more than 40% over the previous year, and many investors were struggling to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

That same month, The New York Times published an opinion piece from Buffett to help encourage weary investors. Perhaps his most notable advice that has stood the test of time is this: "In short, bad news is an investor's best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price."

Buffett went on to emphasize that while not all companies would survive the recession, "fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense." He continued: "These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records five, 10, and 20 years from now."

^SPX Chart

History has proved Buffett right, as the S&P 500 has surged by a staggering 1,000% since that article was published in October 2008. And those who reaped the greatest rewards were the investors who continued buying even when the market's outlook was bleak.

What history suggests investors should do right now

There's no telling where the market may be a month or a year from now, but history has proved over and over again that time in the market is far more valuable than timing the market.

The market could take a turn for the worse tomorrow, or it could continue reaching record highs for another year before the next slump begins. If you sell your stocks now in anticipation of a downturn, you risk missing out on lucrative returns if the market instead continues climbing.


https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-crash-coming-warren-142000970.html

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Vance Asked if Iran War Be Over by the Midterm Elections

3 September 19:27

Vance is now asked whether the Iran war will be over by the time the midterms come around.

"I wouldn't call it a war", he says, adding that there is "no active shooting right now".

He says "major combat operations lasted about six weeks," adding that Iran's nuclear facilities, industrial base and conventional military have been destroyed.

Vance says if the question is when Iranians will stop shooting at ships, he doesn't know the answer: "You would have to ask the Iranians."

Asked when it will stop affecting energy markets, he argues that it is having "less effect day by day".

He says the US is using the tools at its disposal to ensure people "never have to deal with the threat of an Iranian nuclear programme" and that world energy markets are "properly supplied".


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/crlyqwn4w1gnt

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Oil

China Bans Enforcement of U.S. Oil Sanctions Against Chinese Companies

China’s independent refiners

WANA (Sep 03) – China’s Ministry of Commerce has responded to U.S. sanctions against five Chinese companies linked to Iran’s oil trade by issuing a “blocking order” prohibiting the sanctions from being recognized, enforced, or complied with within China.

According to Xinhua, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced on Saturday, May 2, 2026, that the U.S. sanctions against the five Chinese companies restrict their normal economic and commercial activities with third countries and constitute what Beijing described as the “extraterritorial application” of U.S. law.

The companies targeted by the sanctions are Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian), Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical, Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group, Hebei Xinhai Chemical Group, and Shandong Shengxing Chemical.

The United States has placed the companies under sanctions over what it described as their involvement in oil transactions with Iran, imposing measures including the blocking of assets and a ban on transactions with them.

China’s Ministry of Commerce said the U.S. sanctions violate international law and the norms governing international relations. Beijing stressed that the blocking order was issued under Chinese laws designed to counter the extraterritorial application of foreign laws.

China said the measure is aimed at protecting its sovereignty, security and development interests, as well as the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies and citizens.

The decision is significant because China’s independent “teapot” refineries are major buyers of Iranian oil, and the United States has imposed sanctions on a number of these refineries and other entities involved in Iran’s oil trade in recent years.

The latest move by China’s Ministry of Commerce also marks Beijing’s first official use of a “blocking order” to directly counter specific U.S. sanctions targeting Chinese companies linked to trade with Iran. The move could open a new chapter in tensions between Beijing and Washington over the extraterritorial enforcement of U.S. sanctions.


https://wanaen.com/china-bans-enforcement-of-u-s-oil-sanctions-against-chinese-companies/

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Oil and Gas

War Against Ukraine Can't be Resolved by Halting Russian Oil Purchases, Indian FM Says

Stopping purchases of Russian oil will not help end Moscow's all-out war against Ukraine, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said on Sept. 3 during his first visit to Kyiv.

India remains Russia's second-largest buyer of crude, only behind China. Purchases of Russian oil from the two countries provided Moscow with a major source of revenue since the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022, helping finance the ongoing war.

Speaking at a briefing with his Ukrainian counterpart Andrii Sybiha, Jaishankar said he believes solutions to Russia's war "won't emerge from the battlefield" and India is ready to contribute to efforts to end it.

He said ensuring fuel supplies for India's 1.4 billion people is a challenge, adding that he respects Ukraine's position on Russian oil purchases, but expects the same respect for India's position.

"This conflict, which is today in its fifth year, will not dissolve because somebody is buying or not buying oil or alumina or minerals or metals..." the Indian minister said.

"This conflict will be solved by dialogue, by diplomacy, by negotiations. And that is why it is something we would encourage."

Last August, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Indian imports over the country's energy trade with Russia, bringing the total levy to 50%. The tariffs were later reduced to 18%, while Washington has pushed India to replace Russian oil with Venezuelan crude.

The U.S. House is expected to vote later this September on a bill that could impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries among the top five buyers of Russian oil or gas, including India and China.


https://kyivindependent.com/war-against-ukraine-cant-be-resolved-by-halting-russian-oil-purchases-indian-fm-says/

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U.S. Diesel Prices Surge Toward All-Time High

  • Tightening supply from the Middle East and Russia, plus harvest-season demand, is pushing middle distillate cracks to record levels.
  • GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan says the record could fall by Labor Day, with Gulf Coast spot prices already hitting new highs.
  • US diesel hit $5.7832 a gallon Thursday, just three cents shy of the all-time record set in June 2022.

The average price of diesel in the United States hit $5.7832 per gallon on Thursday, which is just three cents lower than the record-high of $5.8159 in mid-June 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent fuel prices to record highs, data from AAA showed.

The U.S. national average gasoline price is about $1 per gallon below the all-time high of $5.0165 from June 2022, but at over $4.10 a gallon now, the gasoline price is the highest it has been at this time of year, and is $1 higher than the average $3 before the war in Iran began at the end of February.

Gasoline prices are a concern for the U.S. Administration, which is pressuring refiners to find ways to lower prices at the pump, two months ahead of the mid-term elections in November.

Diesel prices are also a major concern, including for the U.S. economy and the interest rate path of the Fed, as diesel is essential for economic growth and inflation of the price of goods.

Diesel markets in the United States and globally have severely tightened in recent weeks, amid crippled fuel supply from the Middle East and Russia, due to the Iran and Ukraine wars, rising seasonal demand with the harvest season, and insufficient capacity elsewhere to compensate the lost diesel flows from the Strait of Hormuz and Russia.

The re-escalation in the Middle East and the Russian ban on diesel exports amid incessant Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries pushed middle distillate cracks to record highs this week.

“At this pace, we could even break the all-time diesel record ($5.819/gal) by Labor Day,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said on Wednesday.

The analyst also said that Gulf Coast spot diesel prices hit a record earlier this week.

“The market is short- buyers bidding up every drop like a housing market with too few homes…higher retail diesel prices coming *coast to coast*,” De Haan said.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/US-Diesel-Prices-Surge-Toward-All-Time-High.html

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Chinese Refiners Pay Record Premiums for Russian ESPO Crude

Chinese refiners are paying a hefty premium for Russia’s ESPO crude to replace Iranian crude that independent refiners were importing before the U.S. installed its naval blockade on the country.

East Siberia-Pacific Ocean crude, or ESPO, for delivery in November is trading at a premium of over $7 per barrel, with offers reaching as high as $10 per barrel over Brent crude, Bloomberg reported today, citing traders. The blend is loaded from Russia’s Far East coast and can reach the buyers in China in less than a week, the publication noted.

China is the biggest buyer of ESPO crude, with a market share of 83% for the first seven months of the year. However, this share is down from 88% a year earlier. The change came amid stronger ESPO buying from Indian refiners, whose market share for the Far Eastern Russian crude blend went up from 12% to 16% for the first seven months of the year, according to data from Kpler and Vortexa. Total oil exports from Russia’s Far Eastern port of Kozmino ticked up by 6% over the first seven months of the year.

India raised its ESPO imports due to the slump in overall Chinese oil imports between May and June, and the supply disruptions in the Middle East, which delayed many term cargoes Indian refiners were expecting in the early summer.

Normally, Indian refiners prefer the Urals blend but have now warmed up to ESPO even though it takes longer to reach its destinations in India and is costlier than Urals. However, the Far Eastern blend is a good backup option for Indian buyers in times of disruption, according to energy analysts.

Meanwhile, India’s crude oil imports from Russia are estimated to have eased in August from July’s record high, as Ukrainian attacks on Russian export infrastructure and competition from China for Russia’s barrels have dented Indian intake of Moscow’s oil.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinese-Refiners-Pay-Record-Premiums-for-Russian-ESPO-Crude.html

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Alternative Energy

BHP’s Udd to Take Helm at Albemarle

ALBEMARLE has named BHP executive Ragnar Udd as its next CEO, Reuters reported on Thursday.

Udd, currently BHP’s chief commercial officer, will take over on February 1, 2027, replacing Kent Masters, who will become executive chairman.

The appointment comes as lithium markets show signs of recovery after prices plunged from record highs in 2023.

A surge in production, particularly in China, created a glut that forced producers to cut costs, delay projects and restructure operations.

Prices have recovered in recent months as supply tightened, although they remain below their 2023 peaks.

Albemarle said in August lithium salt inventories were near record lows and spodumene inventories near historic lows, while demand prospects had improved on growth in electric vehicles and battery storage.

The company also said all three processing trains at its Wodgina mine in Australia were operating, while identifying its existing Chilean operations as its best opportunity to deploy direct lithium extraction technology.

Udd has overseen BHP’s global sales and marketing, procurement, maritime activities and commodities-market strategy. He previously led BHP’s Americas business, including its copper and potash operations.

Masters has led Albemarle since April 2020 and will remain executive chairman through the company’s 2027 annual shareholder meeting.


https://www.miningmx.com/trending/67046-bhps-udd-to-take-helm-at-albemarle/

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Base Metals

Copper Tipped to Hit Record $15,000 in Early 2027

Copper could climb to a record $15,000 a ton early next year as US tariff concerns tighten supplies outside America while mine disruptions and resilient demand support prices, Bloomberg reported.

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) expect copper to approach $14,500/t by year-end before potentially reaching $15,000/t in early 2027.

Copper has gained about 15% this year and is trading close to the record reached in late January. Three-month copper futures were around $14,245/t on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Thursday.

Speculation that the Trump administration could impose tariffs on refined copper imports has prompted large volumes of metal to move into US warehouses. This has reduced the amount available elsewhere, particularly in the LME warehouse network.

“Most inventories are sitting in the US, tightening the market outside,” the analysts said.

US copper prices are trading above those on the LME, encouraging traders to move metal into America to take advantage of the price difference.

ANZ said copper demand should also remain supported by investment in electric vehicles and new-energy infrastructure. At the same time, mine supply remains under pressure, including from production challenges in South America.


https://www.miningmx.com/trending/67020-copper-tipped-to-hit-record-15000-in-early-2027/

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Bezant Resources Near Production in Namibia

Bezant Targets First Concentrate at Namibia’s Hope & Gorob in September

Bezant Resources said development of the Hope & Gorob copper-gold project in Namibia and the associated Tsoaxaub Metals Processing Plant remains in line with the current project schedule, with first run-of-mine ore expected to be processed during September 2026. Subject to completion of the remaining commissioning activities, processing of the first ROM ore is expected to generate the project’s first concentrate. Ore from the first two mine blasts has already been stockpiled and is ready for transport to the processing plant, while Bezant said the stockpiled tonnage exceeded initial projections due to additional ore recovery recorded in the company’s Mineral Inventory. 

Development work is progressing at both the mine and processing plant. Mine-site camp construction is approximately 75% complete, around 75% of surface infrastructure has been delivered and is being installed, and the full Unitrans mining and haulage fleets are now on site. At the Tsoaxaub plant, Bezant has received the C1 Civils and Structural Completion Certificate, confirming completion of major structural steelwork and civil works, while the C2 Mechanical Completion Certificate is scheduled for completion during September. Electrical drives and instrumentation are around 90% complete, with the cone crusher, flotation equipment, tailings infrastructure and other processing components undergoing final preparation ahead of commissioning. 

Bezant has also accelerated its review of a Phase II expansion plan, considering current and projected copper, gold and silver prices as well as the potential inclusion of lower-grade mineralisation that had previously been considered sub-economic. The company is evaluating a higher mass-pull operating strategy for the ore sorter that could increase copper recoveries, although potentially at a lower pre-concentrate grade. Based on the current Mineral Inventory, existing JORC (2012) Mineral Resource, planned flotation-plant capacity and the higher mass-pull scenario under consideration, management believes Hope & Gorob has the potential to support an approximately 35-year mine life. Bezant has not yet published a revised economic model incorporating this longer-life scenario. 

The September processing target places Hope & Gorob close to the transition from mine development into initial concentrate production, with ROM ore already stockpiled and key processing infrastructure approaching mechanical completion. The potential 35-year mine life and Phase II expansion remain under technical and economic review and should not yet be treated as a confirmed revised development plan. In the near term, the key milestone to watch will be completion of plant commissioning and confirmation of first concentrate production during September.


https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104096595-bezant-targets-first-concentrate-at-namibias-hope-gorob-in-september

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Vale Base Metals Boosts Output at Clarabelle Mill

Sudbury nickel miner said first of two phases now complete at processing facility.

Vale Base Metals is reporting the first phase of a two-phase revitalization project is complete at Clarabelle Mill in Sudbury.

Part of the company’s Copper Cliff Complex west of Sudbury, the Clarabelle Mill processes ore into copper and nickel concentrate before the copper concentrate is sold to market. Nickel concentrate, meanwhile, carries on to Vale’s smelter for further processing.

In a Sept. 2 social media post, the company said the completion of phase one of the project means that “the mill is now positioned to process approximately 6 million tonnes of ore in 2026, compared with approximately 4.5 million tonnes just a few years ago.”

Phase two is expected to be operational in 2028, when the mill’s capacity is expected to jump again, to 7 million tonnes.

“The enhanced capacity is being supported by major upgrades across the mill, including replacing critical infrastructure and the removal of key processing bottlenecks,” the company said in its post.

“Together, these upgrades are improving flexibility and helping ensure Clarabelle can support future production requirements across the Sudbury Basin.”

The company previewed its plans during its annual Investor Day in Toronto March 31.

In delivering its prospectus last spring, Vale Base Metals spoke of growing its copper supply, with Sudbury figuring as a key component of that strategy.

The company noted that, in 2025, Clarabelle processed more than 5 million tonnes of ore, which marked the highest amount in nearly a decade.

Altogether, Vale Base Metals’ Sudbury operations include six mines, producing copper, nickel, cobalt, platinum group metals, gold, and silver, as well as a mill, a smelter, and a refinery.


https://www.sudbury.com/local-business/vale-base-metals-boosts-output-at-clarabelle-mill-12735503

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Steel, Iron Ore and Coal

POSCO Teams With BHP to Test Iron Ore for Hydrogen Steelmaking

Australian Iron Ore to Be Used in HyREX Technology Verification Partners to Share Expertise and Seek Greenhouse Gas Cuts

From left: Bae Jin-chan, head of POSCO's HyREX promotion team; Ben Ellis, BHP's Chief Marketing and Sustainability Officer; Eom Kyung-keun, head of POSCO's Technical Research Laboratories; and Stuart Feathers, BHP's manager of technology planning and environment, pose for a photo after signing a hydrogen reduction steelmaking cooperation agreement at Cheongsongdae in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province, on the 3rd. /POSCO

POSCO is joining forces with BHP, Australia's largest mining company, to verify raw materials for the commercialization of its proprietary hydrogen-based steelmaking technology.

POSCO signed a hydrogen steelmaking cooperation agreement with BHP on the 3rd at Cheongsongdae in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province. Under the deal, POSCO plans to use BHP's iron ore to verify HyREX, its own hydrogen reduction steelmaking process.

HyREX produces molten iron without carbon dioxide emissions by using hydrogen as a reducing agent instead of coal, a fossil fuel. POSCO plans to verify whether HyREX operates reliably under various raw material conditions, test how process performance changes according to the characteristics and quality of iron ore, and determine optimal blending conditions.

The two companies also agreed to share technical expertise on raw materials for hydrogen steelmaking and to jointly explore ways to reduce indirect greenhouse gas emissions, known as Scope 3, generated during the raw material supply process.

The agreement follows a memorandum of understanding signed last October in the presence of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and POSCO Group Chairman Chang In-hwa.

"This partnership carries great significance in that a steelmaker and a global raw material supplier are preparing together for the future of low-carbon steelmaking," said Eom Kyung-keun, head of POSCO's research institute of industrial science and technology. "Starting with BHP, we will expand cooperation with global raw material suppliers and accelerate the development of low-carbon steelmaking technology."

Ben Ellis, BHP's chief marketing and sustainability officer, said the project builds on a long-running collaboration with POSCO on innovative steelmaking technology. He said BHP believes it can play an important role in advancing new technologies and pathways to support the decarbonization of its customers' steelmaking processes, and that it will work to ensure Australian iron ore can be used in low-carbon steelmaking as well.


https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/09/03/posco-teams-with-bhp-to-test-iron-ore-for-hydrogen

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