BHP Group disclosed on Tuesday that it has agreed to reduced pricing for certain iron ore shipments whilst negotiating a 2026 supply contract with Chinese buyers, even as the company achieved record first-half production.
The miner revealed a 20% cost overrun at its Canadian Jansen potash development, with total investment now estimated at $8.4bn against a previous forecast of $7bn to $7.4bn.
BHP is finalising annual contract terms with state purchaser China Mineral Resources Group whilst exploring alternative markets for its products.
“During negotiations, we continue to optimise product placement distribution channels and take actions within our operations to preserve operational flexibility and productivity,” the company said. “This has seen some impact to realised price.”
Since September, CMRG has instructed steelmakers and traders to halt purchases of multiple BHP iron ore grades, according to sources.
The company reported first-half iron ore output of 146.6 million tons from Western Australian operations on a 100% basis, up one percent year-on-year. Full-year guidance remained at 284Mt to 296Mt.
BHP raised its copper production outlook to 1.9 million to two million tons, lifted from a previous floor of 1.8Mt, citing strong operational performance.
Shares fell two percent amid broader sector weakness.
https://www.miningmx.com/trending/63681-bhp-accepts-price-cuts-amid-china-supply-talks/
TRUMP’S GREENLAND DEMAND SPOOKS INVESTORS
Dominating the headlines this morning, it’s still Donald Trump and his threat of more tariffs on European nations if they don’t surrender to his demand for Greenland.
International investors have moved out of US stocks and bonds and into gold and silver, with gold hitting a fresh record high of $4,678 this morning.
Silver was up more than 4% - also a fresh record high.
No trade in New York yesterday, with the market closed for Martin Luther King Day, but the Dow is poised to open 300 points down later this afternoon our time.
European markets were down, with carmakers like BMW down nearly 4%, and luxury goods producers like LVMH down almost 5%. On the JSE, Richemont was down almost 3%.
E.U. LEADERS TO MEET LATER THIS WEEK
Trump himself is due to make a rare appearance later this week at the W.E.F. in Davos, where he’ll meet with business leaders.
Europe’s leaders have spoken individually in response to the Greenland tariff threats, but they’re not due to come together to formulate a response until Thursday. At this stage, most are urging caution, suggesting that a trade war is in no one’s interest.
NEW STUDY SAYS U.S. CONSUMERS PAY FOR TRUMP’S TARIFFS
Meanwhile, a study by a German think tank reports that Trump’s tariffs – duties on imported goods – are paid almost entirely by American importers, their domestic customers, and, ultimately, American consumers.
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy says foreign exporters did not meaningfully reduce their prices in response to US tariff increases. Quoted by Blomberg, it says that the $200 billion surge in customs revenue represents $200 billion extracted from American businesses and households. That’s despite Trump’s claims to the contrary.
MARKETS
On the broader market, the JSE All Share and the Top 40 both ended the day flat.
The rising gold price lifted Gold Fields by 1.7% and AngloGold Ashanti by 1.3%.
Platinum also went strongly – Valterra up 2.2% and Implats 1.8%. Northam up 1.4%.
One interesting variation – Capitec, which is reported to be the South African company which is the fastest to reach a market cap of R500 billion, down 1.4%.
And Sasol, on a serious downgrade from J.P. Morgan, is down 3.1%.
London’s FTSE was down 0.4%.
Tokyo this morning is down 1.1% - Hong Kong down 0.1% - Sydney down 0.6%.
The US dollar is easier at $1.17 to the euro, the rand – R16.38 to the dollar, R19.10 to the euro and R22.01 to the pound.
Platinum - $2,341, Bitcoin - $92,400, and Brent Crude oil - $64 per barrel.
https://www.algoafm.co.za/business/the-gibbons-report-20-january-2026
(Reuters) – President Donald Trump has lavished the U.S. oil industry with favourable policies since returning to the White House, but his twin demands for cheap oil and “energy dominance” are increasingly colliding with companies’ bottom lines.
Over the past year, the Republican president has rolled out numerous pro‑fossil fuel measures and offered strong support for U.S. oil firms abroad, a sharp departure from his Democratic predecessor Joe Biden’s focus on combating climate change.
Within hours of taking office, Trump declared a national energy emergency, opening the way to relaxed environmental rules and expanded drilling permits on federal land and in Alaska. He also quickly lifted Biden’s freeze on permitting new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and sped up project approvals.
The policies are set to reinforce America’s status as the world’s largest oil and gas producer. U.S. crude oil and liquids production is projected to hit a record of nearly 24 million barrels per day in 2026, accounting for 22% of global supply, according to the Energy Information Administration.
What’s more, the U.S. in 2025 became the first country to export more than 100 million metric tons of LNG in a single year, powered by production from new plants.
But the industry’s early enthusiasm for Trump’s “drill, baby, drill!” ethos has been tempered by his push for low energy prices and his appeals to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase output. OPEC+, which includes Russia, sharply raised production targets throughout the year, sending U.S. benchmark crude to a near five‑year low of $55 a barrel in mid‑December.
The price drop, and expectations of a future global supply glut, pushed U.S. drillers to scale back operations, with the domestic oil rig count falling 15% over the past year, according to energy service provider Baker Hughes. That pullback is set to slow the pace of U.S. output growth this year and next.
ENERGY DOMINO
At the same time, Trump has used America’s oil and gas strength to advance his “energy dominance” agenda and the so‑called Donroe doctrine, his rebranding of a 19th‑century principle asserting U.S. influence over the Americas.
The administration has wielded its oil and LNG wealth in negotiations intended to narrow trade imbalances with dozens of countries. Some counterparties, such as the European Union, have agreed to aggressive and unrealistic supply commitments that risk making buyers wary of depending heavily on the U.S. for vital energy.
The centrality of oil in Trump’s strategy was made crystal clear when U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in early January on drug trafficking charges, prompting Trump to quickly announce that Washington would indefinitely take control of the oil riches of a country home to the world’s largest proven reserves – some 300 billion barrels.
In a televised White House meeting with oil executives on January 9, Trump declared that his administration would soon name the companies that will be asked to invest a combined $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela’s derelict oil industry.
But it is far from clear if top companies such as Exxon Mobilor Chevron would commit to investing heavily in the Latin American country, given immense political and economic risks and long‑standing doubts about the attractiveness of developing its oil resources.
Exxon CEO Darren Woods underscored this at the White House meeting, calling Venezuela “un-investable” and citing the company’s history of being forced out of the country twice in recent decades.
Trump bristled at Woods’s remarks, calling them “too cute,” adding later that he was inclined to keep Exxon out of the country.
Defying Trump therefore risks meaningful backlash.
THE BEAR HUG
Venezuela may become a template for Trump’s broader use of U.S. oil companies as geopolitical instruments.
He could, for example, attempt to draw them into Russia as part of a sweeping deal to end Moscow’s nearly four‑year-long full‑scale invasion of Ukraine.
But deeper government involvement in commercial decision‑making carries major risks for the financial integrity of these firms.
More broadly, the growing volatility of U.S. politics – under both Democrats and Republicans – poses increasing risks for the industry, as successive administrations reverse or discard their predecessors’ policies, particularly those enacted through executive orders rather than legislation.
In short, the more friendly Trump’s policies are towards the oil sector today, the greater risk there is of significant whiplash if an environmentally focused administration comes into office.
Trump’s embrace of the oil industry was widely welcomed after what many companies viewed as Biden’s relative hostility. But his strongman style risks turning that warm embrace into a bear hug.
South Africa has a rare pitch that it can make at the World Economic Forum (WEF) this week in the form of some of the world’s highest-grade rare earth deposits.
The think tank’s research indicated that the demand for critical minerals required for clean energy technologies is projected to rise more than 3.4 times by 2040 under the International Energy Agency’s net-zero pathway.
Materials such as nickel, neodymium, silicon, silver, and zinc are essential for electric vehicles (EVs), solar panels, and wind turbines, highlighting South Africa’s potential global significance.
This increase in demand, the forum noted, will take place because the next decade will be defined by an energy transition and a digital transition, both of which are mineral-intensive.
The international think tank added that, “critical minerals are also now central to economic security and geopolitical stability”.
“Every AI data centre depends on copper-heavy power systems. Every electric vehicle begins with mined umetals. Every renewable grid, semiconductor and battery system is anchored in materials mined from the earth,” WEF said in a blog on its website.
Team South Africa, led by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, is using the Forum to signal that the country is more than a resource hub – it’s a potential partner in global innovation.
“The delegation’s strategic intent is to position South Africa as an attractive investment destination reflected in demonstrable progress in attaining macroeconomic stability, positive momentum in economic reform implementation, regional leadership, and global diplomacy,” said the government.
Brand South Africa said the delegation will highlight initiatives designed to translate dialogue into deals, while also planning to reinforce South Africa’s role in regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Image: Reliamag | Creative Commons
South Africa is home to some of the world’s highest-grade rare earth deposits.
The Steenkampskraal Mine in the Western Cape produces neodymium and praseodymium, crucial for permanent magnets in electric vehicles and wind turbines, along with thorium.
The Phalaborwa Project in Limpopo recovers rare earths from phosphogypsum, a mining byproduct, demonstrating a resilient and environmentally innovative approach.
Zandkopsdrift in the Northern Cape focuses on cerium, neodymium, and praseodymium, adding further scale to the country’s strategic portfolio.
“Achieving net zero by 2050 will involve securing an escalating supply of the primary inputs for green technologies, including nickel and neodymium for EVs, silicon and silver for photovoltaic solar panels and zinc for wind turbines.
"This creates a fundamental tension at the heart of the sustainable future we are trying to build,” said the WEF.
China is the dominant global leader in rare earth production, followed by the United States and Myanmar, with Australia, Brazil, and Russia also significant producers.
Fortuna Mining (TSX: FVI; NYSE: FSM) has reported strong production results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, successfully meeting its annual guidance with 317,001 gold equivalent ounces (GEO) produced across its operations in Latin America and West Africa.
The company's Séguéla Mine in Côte d'Ivoire was a standout performer, delivering record gold production of 152,426 ounces, which exceeded the upper end of annual guidance by 4%. Consolidated GEO production from ongoing operations reached 279,207 ounces in 2025.
In a move to streamline its portfolio, Fortuna completed the sale of its San Jose Mine in April 2025 and Yaramoko Mine in May 2025. The company also reported an improvement in its safety performance, with the Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate decreasing to 0.74 in 2025 from 1.36 in 2024.
Looking ahead to 2026, Fortuna projects GEO production from ongoing operations to be between 281,000 and 305,000 ounces. The company is focusing on two key growth projects: a construction decision at Diamba Sud expected by mid-year and a feasibility study for expanding the Séguéla processing plant.
As of December 31, 2025, Fortuna estimates it had $704 million in liquidity and a $382 million net cash position. The company has allocated substantial capital for project development and exploration across its portfolio in 2026, including $100 million for Diamba Sud and $55 million for exploration activities.
More information is available at www.FortunaMining.com
KEY POINTS
Seabridge Gold Stock Performance
Seabridge Gold Inc. (TSE:SEA)'s share price reached a new 52-week high on Tuesday. The company traded as high as C$45.00 and last traded at C$44.34, with a volume of 50911 shares trading hands. The stock had previously closed at C$44.70.
The company has a market capitalization of C$4.71 billion, a PE ratio of -81.09 and a beta of 1.77. The stock's fifty day simple moving average is C$39.90 and its 200-day simple moving average is C$31.63. The company has a quick ratio of 3.34, a current ratio of 2.28 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 58.83.
Seabridge Gold Company Profile
Seabridge holds a 100% interest in several North American gold projects. Seabridge's principal asset, the KSM project, and its Iskut projects are located in Northwest British Columbia, Canada's " Golden Triangle ", the Courageous Lake project is in Canada's Northwest Territories, the Snowstorm project in the Getchell Gold Belt of Northern Nevada and the 3 Aces project is in the Yukon Territory.
Aftermath Silver Ltd. (V.AAG) Hit a new 52-Week High of $1.23. Last week, Aftermath filed a technical report on the Berenguela silver-copper-manganese deposit located in the Department of Puno in southern Peru.
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (T.AEM) Hit a new 52-Week High of $287.21. Agnico Eagle rose 2.7% last week on volume of 480,994 shares
Altius Minerals Corporation (T.ALS) Hit a new 52-Week High of $45.97. Altius earlier this month issued a fourth-quarter generation update. The market value of equities in the portfolio at December 31, 2025 was $49.3 million, compared to $44.0 million at September 30, 2025. Net portfolio investment of approximately $1.3 million was completed during the quarter.
First Majestic Silver Corp. (T.AG) Hit a new 52-Week High of $30.74. Last week, First Majestic announced that total production in the fourth quarter of 2025 from the Company's four producing underground mines in Mexico, reached 7.8 million attributable silver equivalent ounces, consisting of 4.2 million silver ounces, 41,417 gold ounces, 14.2 million pounds of zinc, 8.1 million pounds of lead and 235,886 pounds of copper.
Andean Precious Metals Corp. (T.APM) Hit a new 52-Week High of $11.27. Andean was among mining and energy companies featuring prominently in the recently released OTCQX Best 50 2026 list, with eight resource-focused firms among the top 10 performers for this year's edition.
Artemis Gold Inc. (V.ARTG) Hit a new 52-Week High of $42.33. Last week, Artemis announced its Blackwater mine has capped off its inaugural operating year with record quarterly production of 68,480 ounces of gold during the three months ended December 31, 2025, bringing full year 2025 production to 192,808 ounces of gold.
Banyan Gold Corp. (V.BYN) Hit a new 52-Week High of $1.26. Tuesday, Banyan announced it has intersected new high-grade silver intervals at the Powerline Deposit and Airstrip Deposit, at its AurMac Project, Yukon.
Cerrado Gold Inc. (V.CERT) Hit a new 52-Week High of $2.20. Cerrado Monday announced it has concluded its gold hedging program that contained a ceiling of $3,250/oz on a portion of its gold sales, delivering the final ounces required under the contract in a January 15, 2026 shipment from its Minera Don Nicolas operations in Santa Cruz Argentina.
Centerra Gold Inc. (T.CG) Hit a new 52-Week High of $24.90. Centerra Tuesday rose 1.6% on volume of 200 shares.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/aftermath-agnico-altius-52-week-155600084.html
Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings Limited is all set to start off preparatory works in 2026 on a new electrolytic aluminium facility in Indonesia’s Galang Batang Special Economic Zone. The facility is planned to produce up to 250,000 tonnes of aluminium a year, with development costs estimated at roughly USD 436.57 million spread across two years, subject to pending environmental and building approvals.
The expansion does not stop there. Over the medium to long term, the Group is also assessing the development of a further electrolytic aluminium project with a planned capacity of up to 500,000 tonnes per year. This longer-term ambition reflects management’s intention to gradually bring electrolytic aluminium output into closer balance with the company’s existing alumina production, strengthening coordination between upstream and downstream operations and improving overall efficiency.
According to the company, the decision is identified by a mix of practical and market-driven considerations. The project site offers ample space for expansion, sits close to some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, and benefits from a global market where demand for electrolytic aluminium is continuing to firm alongside prices. In addition, the Group’s earlier work on alumina developments in Indonesia has given it first-hand knowledge of local operating conditions, helping to limit execution challenges. Taken together, these elements are expected to open up additional revenue streams, lift margins and leave the business better placed to navigate shifts in market conditions.
From an equity market perspective, sentiment remains positive. The latest analyst coverage on Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings Limited shares (2610), which recently gained 5.60 per cent, maintains a Buy rating with a target price of HKD 68.00 ( USD 8.7).
Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings Limited operates as an integrated aluminium producer with both upstream and downstream capabilities. The Group already runs an alumina production facility in the Galang Batang Special Economic Zone on Bintan Island, Indonesia. Its proximity to key maritime routes, including the Strait of Malacca, offers efficient access to markets across Southeast Asia, Europe, India and the Middle East, supporting the company’s ongoing efforts to expand its international customer base and enhance operational performance.
BHP Chief Executive Officer, Mike Henry:
“BHP delivered another half of very strong performance with operational records at our copper and iron ore assets. This was achieved safely and in a positive commodity price environment, with copper prices up 32% and iron ore prices 4% higher year on year.
We have increased FY26 group copper production guidance off the back of stronger delivery across our assets. Our flagship copper operation, Escondida, achieved record concentrator throughput and we have increased the FY26 production guidance range. Antamina has also lifted its production guidance, and Spence and Copper SA are tracking to plan, with Copper SA achieving record refined gold output.
In iron ore, WAIO achieved record first half production and shipments, positioning us well ahead of the typically wet third quarter. Volumes from Samarco rose as a result of strong operational performance at the second concentrator following its restart at the end of H1 FY25. We also announced a transaction with Global Infrastructure Partners involving WAIO’s inland power network which, once completed, will see us realise proceeds of ~US$2 bn while retaining ownership and operational control in an innovative and value accretive transaction.
Steelmaking coal production increased, supported by a five-year high stripping performance at BMA, and energy coal was up 10%.
The Jansen potash project in Canada is on track to begin production in mid-2027. Jansen will be a long life, low cost and scalable asset that will add a new, future facing commodity to BHP’s portfolio, which we expect will generate value for shareholders over many decades. We have separately provided an updated cost estimate for Jansen Stage 1 today.
China’s commodity demand remains resilient, supported by targeted policy measures and solid exports. Momentum moderated in H2 CY25, notably in construction, manufacturing and infrastructure investments. India is emerging as a key engine of demand, with strong domestic activity sustaining steel and rising copper needs. Forecast global growth in 2026 is around 3%, creating a positive backdrop for commodity demand.
BHP enters the second half of FY26 with strong operating momentum. We’re investing for the decade ahead, with a significant copper growth pipeline and a pathway to ~2 Mt of attributable copper production in the 2030s.”
https://www.drycargomag.com/bhp-report-strong-operational-perfeormance
The MoU will enable GMH to secure a stable supply of molybdenum with high sustainability standards from an EU-associated country. Credit: BEI97/Shutterstock.com.
Greenland Resources has entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with GMH Gruppe for the long-term supply of molybdenum.
This agreement follows the European Commission’s inclusion of Greenland Resources’ Malmbjerg project as a priority in its RESourceEU programme.
The MoU outlines a plan for a supply agreement involving ferro-molybdenum, molybdenum-oxide, and briquettes made from molybdenum ore mined in Greenland by the company, which will be refined in Belgium.
The Malmbjerg project is an open-pit molybdenum venture with magnesium as a byproduct.
It is situated within Greenland Resources’ exclusive mineral exploitation licence area 2025-115 in east-central Greenland.
GMH Gruppe, known for its sustainable production methods, operates more than 15 production sites, primarily in Germany.
It specialises in steel products, utilising electric arc furnaces that reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 80% compared to traditional methods.
This MoU will enable GMH to secure a stable supply of molybdenum with high sustainability standards from an EU-associated country.
The EU is the second-largest consumer of molybdenum globally but lacks extraction capabilities.
Germany is the EU’s largest user and has classified molybdenum as a high-risk material on its Criticality List. Similarly, Canada recognises molybdenum as significant in its critical minerals list.
Canada Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Tim Hodgson said: “Last year I was pleased to travel to Berlin and sign a Declaration of Intent with Germany to Strengthen Cooperation on Critical Minerals.
“Following that, in October 2025, on the margins of the G7 Energy and Environment Ministers’ Meeting in Toronto, the Government of Canada issued a communiqué where the Canadian mining company Greenland Resources was highlighted for its contribution to the Italian steel sector – now, I am pleased to see Greenland Resources moving forward and also contributing to the Germany steel industry, another important G7 ally.”
In September 2025, Greenland Resources signed an MoU with Hempel Metallurgical for the long-term supply of molybdenum to the German steel industry.
The full-year output in 2025 exceeded the 45 million tonnes per year capacity cap imposed on the domestic primary aluminium sector, Mysteel Global noted. This suggests that most domestic smelters operated at high utilisation rates for much of the year, allowing actual production to surpass the nominal capacity limit, Mysteel Global understands.
In December alone, China produced 3.87 million tonnes of primary aluminium, marking an increase of 3 per cent from the same month in 2024 and a 2.1 per cent rise from November, the NBS data showed.
Strong profitability supported stable smelter operations in December, resulting in generally steady output levels. The modest on-month increase mainly came from production lines that were commissioned or had resumed output in the Inner Mongolia and the Xinjiang autonomous regions, market watchers said.
Despite a slight uptick in primary aluminium production costs last month, due mainly to higher electricity prices, cost growth was limited compared with the rise in primary aluminium prices. Mysteel's monthly survey showed that the weighted average complete cost for China's primary aluminium industry stood at RMB 15,948 per tonne (USD 2,290 per tonne) in December, up by a marginal 0.2 per cent on month.
During the same month, primary aluminium prices continued to strengthen. Mysteel assessed the weighted average monthly price for primary aluminium ingots with a purity above 99.7 per cent at RMB 21,933 per tonne in December, up by 2 per cent from November.
As price gains significantly outpaced cost increases, industry profitability expanded further last month. According to Mysteel's survey, average profits among the 89 primary aluminium smelters under its tracking rose by 6.8 per cent on month to RMB 5,985 per tonne in December, the highest level since Mysteel began tracking profits in January 2019.
In addition to rising primary aluminium prices, profitability was also supported by lower prices of alumina, a key raw material for primary aluminium smelting. The weighted average monthly price for smelter-grade alumina with a purity above 98.6 per cent declined by 2.9 per cent on month to RMB 2,769 per tonne in December.
Meanwhile, China's total production of ten major non-ferrous metals – including aluminium, copper, zinc, and lead – reached 81.75 million tonnes during January–December 2025, up by 3.9 per cent on year, according to the NBS data. In December, output of these metals amounted to 7.21 million tonnes, rising by 3.1 per cent from November and 4.9 per cent from December 2024.
Worthington Steel has made a voluntary public takeover offer for the German steel company Kloeckner & Co
Worthington Steel's proposal for a voluntary public takeover of the German steel company Kloeckner & The project has been preparing for at least two years, the chief executive officer of the American steel processing company said in an exclusive interview with Fastmarkets on Friday, January 16.
"We've been reviewing this deal for two years, and Kloeckner has always been number one on the list[of potential acquisition targets]," Jeff Gilmore, president and CEO of Worthington Steel, said on Friday.
The news of the takeover attempt by Worthington Steel, a German manufacturer and distributor of metals, appeared in early December 2025, marking a year of intense mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the steel industry as a whole.
On Thursday evening, January 15, news broke that Worthington Steel had successfully attempted a takeover by entering into a business combination agreement with Kloeckner. & Co., to create the second largest steel mill maintenance company in North America with combined revenue of over $9.5 billion.
Merger of Worthington Steel and Kloeckner companies & Co led to the creation of a distribution giant in North America, taking the place previously occupied by the merger of Ryerson Holding, a company engaged in the processing and distribution of value-added products, and Olympic Steel service center, which resulted in the creation of a $6.5 billion behemoth service center.
Gilmore said he congratulated the executives of Ryerson and Olympic on announcing their major merger, and said he was pleased to provide them with the location of the second largest steel service center in North America for just two months.
"They can no longer claim to be the second largest; now we are the second largest[steel service center]company[in North America], and they are far from the third," Gilmore said.
According to Gilmore, despite the fact that Kloeckner & Co is a German company, with about 75% of its shipments coming from North America, making it an attractive acquisition target.
The Kloeckner Company & With about 110 branches across North America and Europe and a manufacturing base including carbon steel sheets, electrical steel, aluminum, stainless steel, and rolled products, Co was an attractive target for mergers and acquisitions because it is a "highly complementary business." Gilmore told Fastmarkets about "related markets" with the activities of Worthington Steel.
At Kloeckner & Co. has "greater end-market diversification" than Worthington Steel, Gilmore said, noting that the "significant synergies" of the "much larger combined company" will ensure smooth integration of the two companies.
According to Gilmore, the combined company will employ about 12,000 employees in total.
SS Futures Hold Up Well, Stainless Steel Pre-Holiday Stockpiling Sluggish as Downstream Players Hesitate Amid High Prices.
[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Hold Up Well, Stainless Steel Pre-Holiday Stockpiling Sluggish SMM, Jan 20 - SS futures continued to hold up well. Although the market opened lower in the morning session, tracking the decline in SHFE nickel, the night session posted strong gains and the intraday losses were limited, maintaining a relatively firm tone overall, and finally closed at 14,345 yuan/mt. In the spot market, spot offers were raised in the morning, supported by the high SS futures, but downstream purchase willingness was weak, showing no pre-holiday stockpiling demand. Subsequently, as futures weakened, traders lowered their offers slightly again amid pressure to sell and collect payments before the holiday. In terms of 304 HRC, the supply was tight and prices were supported by steel mills’ list prices, performing slightly stronger than cold-rolled products.
The most-traded SS futures contract held up well. At 10:30 am, the SS2603 contract was quoted at 14,336 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 85-285 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,450 yuan/mt. The average prices of cold-rolled 304/2B coil (trimmed) were 14,350 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 14,250 yuan/mt in Foshan. The prices of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil were 26,300 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan. The price of hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was 25,500 yuan/mt. The prices of cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan were 7,800 yuan/mt.
Recently, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that although the RKAB quota was adjusted from the previously rumored 250 million mt to 260 million mt, the 2025 approval volume would still be significantly reduced, maintaining strong expectations of a tight nickel ore supply. The robust rise in SHFE nickel futures prices drove SS stainless steel futures to surge, with the most-traded contract hitting the daily limit up, reaching a new high since June 2024, driven by strong market sentiment. Despite being in the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, the strong performance of the futures market broke the cautious atmosphere, leading spot stainless steel prices to follow suit, with trader quotes rising continuously. As spot stainless steel prices reached high levels, end-users' fear of high prices intensified, with weak inquiries and purchases, and wait-and-see sentiment still prevalent. However, with limited arrivals during the week, low confidence among traders leading to less purchasing, and a hold prices firm attitude amid the rising market, overall supply remained tight, with few traders willing to offer discounts. On the cost side, high-grade NPI prices surged due to nickel ore news, while high-carbon ferrochrome prices also rose, supported by overseas chrome ore tariff policies, and stainless steel scrap prices followed the upward trend of finished products. Market dynamics were mainly driven by macro expectations and policy games in the futures market, with the spot fundamentals having two bullish supports of "low inventory, strong costs," but real terminal demand had not yet seen substantial improvement, entering a phase of "sentiment premium."The short-term market may hover at highs, but the risk of volatility has increased significantly.
