The fact that the conflict flared up and died down (for now, at least) without an energy crisis speaks to the geopolitical power of “drill, baby, drill.” Ever since the Arab oil embargoes of the 1970s, a full-blown war across the Middle East has been the energy market’s nightmare scenario. Numerous major refineries and shipping terminals are either controlled by Iran or are potential targets for attacks. Tehran has also repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-third of the world’s seaborne crude oil and a fifth of LNG move daily. That move could have sent oil prices skyrocketing well above $120.
Yet over the past two weeks, higher energy prices were the dog that didn’t bark. One key reason was that the conflict seems to have been resolved relatively quickly, leaving less time for traders to fret about future attacks. But the other key reason was that the record US oil production levels reached under both US President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden granted Washington a geopolitical insurance policy — while the global clean energy transition leaves exporters like Iran with less leverage.
The US fracking boom of the last decade gave Washington unprecedented sway over the global oil market. As Javier Blas observed in Bloomberg, this month the US even had a week where it didn’t import any Saudi crude for only the second time in the past 50 years. That gives the US president a freer hand to take military risks in the Middle East without fear of blowback for domestic gasoline prices. Trump took advantage of the conflict this week to urge even more US drilling, but with prices relatively muted, American oil companies are already as busy as they’re likely to be.
That gets to the other dynamic at play here: Thanks to the proliferation of EVs, Trump’s trade war, and other factors, the global oil market is already oversupplied. So going into the Israel-Iran conflict, there was headroom for the price to inch up without causing consumer panic. With a growing number of energy alternatives, the world is less sensitive to oil crunches than it once was. Iran, for one, has become almost entirely reliant on China as the customer for 90% of its oil — which means closing the Strait, the primary avenue for those exports, would do Iran at least as much harm as its adversaries. In fact, according to Rystad Energy, crude traffic through the Strait has increased in the past week, likely a strategy by Iran to move oil out of Kharg Island and other export hubs that could have become targets.
https://www.semafor.com/article/06/24/2025/irans-missing-energy-crisis-is-a-win-for-drill-baby-drill
The domestic equity indices traded with significant gains in the early afternoon trade, tracking a sharp rally in Asian markets after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. The easing of geopolitical tensions led to a pullback in global crude oil prices, providing further support to domestic equities.
The Nifty traded above the 25,250 mark. Metal shares witnessed buying demand for the third consecutive trading session.
At 12:30 ST, the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, zoomed 996.28 points or 1.22% to 82,893.77. The Nifty 50 index rallied 309.25 points or 1.24% to 25,281.45.
In the broader market, the S&P BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.95% and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index added 1.12%.
The market breadth was strong. On the BSE, 2,869 shares rose and 946 shares fell. A total of 175 shares were unchanged.
Derivatives:
The NSE`s India VIX, a gauge of the market`s expectation of volatility over the near term, declined 2.54% to 13.69. The Nifty 26 Jun 2025 futures were trading at 25,313.80, at a premium of 32.35 points as compared with the spot at 25,281.45.
The Nifty option chain for the 26 June 2025 expiry showed a maximum call OI of 149.5 lakh contracts at the 26,000 strike price. Maximum put OI of 133 lakh contracts was seen at the 25,000 strike price.
Buzzing Index:
The Nifty Metal index jumped 1.97% to 9,379.65. The index rallied 3.75% in three consecutive trading sessions.
Steel Authority of India (up 4.55%), Welspun Corp (up 3.16%), NMDC (up 3.15%), Hindustan Copper (up 3.1%), Tata Steel (up 2.89%), Jindal Steel & Power (up 2.73%), Adani Enterprises (up 2.40%), Lloyds Metals & Energy (up 2.39%), JSW Steel (up 2.27%) and Hindalco Industries (up 1.68%) advanced.
Stocks in Spotlight:
Ugro Capital jumped 4.75% after the company announced the elevation of Anuj Pandey as its new chief executive officer, effective 1 July 2025.
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals added 0.37%. The company announced that it had launched TEVIMBRA (tislelizumab) in India after receiving approval from the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO).
Metro Brands rose 0.61%. The company stated that it has entered into a strategic partnership with British footwear brand 'Clarks', marking the brand's re-entry into the Indian market.
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On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. This marks the end of 12 long days of war between the two nations that caused severe destruction to both nations.
Crude Prices tumbled by more than 10 percent on 24 June 2025, and plunged by almost 14 percent in the last two trading sessions. In this article, we will look at some stocks that will pose a direct benefit to this.
Aviation Stocks (SpiceJet, InterGlobe Aviation, etc)
Airlines get immediate relief from lower crude prices as aviation turbine fuel (ATF) is a substantial portion of their operating cost. With oil further down, airlines like SpiceJet and IndiGo (InterGlobe Aviation) should see better margins and profitability levels, especially in the peak travel season
Refining Companies (Reliance Industries, HPCL, BPCL, etc)
Refining companies benefit from falling crude, as it lowers their raw material cost and increases refining margins, provided that product prices remain stable. Companies such as Reliance Industries, HPCL, and BPCL should see margin expansion and better bottom-line results in the event that global demand remains for crude post-ceasefire.
Paint Companies (Asian Paints, Berger Paints, etc)
Crude is an important input in the paint manufacturing industry as it has a fundamental role in pricing raw materials such as solvents and resins. If crude prices decline, Asian Paints, Berger Paints, and others benefit by improving their gross margins, which is important in a market such as India, where price is sensitive and demand is volume-driven.
Oil Marketing Companies (ONGC, Oil India, etc)
While the upstream oil companies, ONGC and Oil India, could face short-term pressure on realizations due to lower crude prices, the ceasefire reduces geopolitical risk and allows for managed operations. Furthermore, fewer subsidies and improved price stability should also support earnings medium term.
Shipping Companies (Shipping Corp, GE Shipping, etc)
The cease-fire diminishes geopolitical risks in critical trade routes, specifically in the Strait of Hormuz, a huge chokepoint for global oil and commodity shipping. Lower crude prices also lower bunker fuel prices, which correspondingly improves operating margins for players such as Shipping Corp of India (SCI) and Great Eastern Shipping (GESE). These companies could experience better fleet utilization, more global movement, and increased profitability in the short term.
Written by Satyajeet Mukherjee
https://tradebrains.in/stocks-to-benefit-after-iran-israel-announces-ceasefire/
The number of hydraulic fracturing crews and rigs operating in North Dakota was unchanged in June, even as oil prices have faced increased volatility in recent weeks, the state regulator said on Tuesday during a monthly briefing.
There are currently 13 frac crews operating in the state and 32 rigs. Overall, U.S. energy firms last week dropped oil and natural gas rigs for the eighth straight week for the first time since September 2023, according to data from energy services firm Baker Hughes on Friday.
North Dakota is the third-largest oil-producing state. Its oil output fell 22,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) to 1,172,000 bpd in April, monthly data from the state Industrial Commission showed.
"Volatility is hard for companies to plan for. Many of the operators in the state now are larger operators and react less to the volatility in prices that we're seeing right now," said Nathan Anderson, director of the state's Department of Mineral Resources.
U.S. crude futures jumped to a six-month high on June 18 at around $75 a barrel as the escalating Israel-Iran conflict stoked global supply concerns. Prices have since slid around $10 per barrel on expectations that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran will reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Bakken oil delivered at Clearbrook, Minnesota, was pricing at a 75 cents per barrel premium to West Texas Intermediate on Tuesday, the state regulator said.
By Irina Slav - Jun 25, 2025, 3:30 AM CDT
The war between Israel and Iran has spark worry about energy supply security in Beijing, and a greater interest in the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline—a project proposed by the Russian side, on which the Chinese side has been in no hurry to make a decision.
The Wall Street Journal reported the news, citing unnamed sources close to the government in Beijing. The latter has been in two minds about the Power of Siberia 2, first, because it has been hard to agree with the Russian side on things like ownership and pricing and second, because China does not want to become over-reliant on a single source of oil and gas.
Now, these concerns appear to have taken the back seat in the face of a fresh dose of Middle Eastern instability and energy supply uncertainty—especially in gas. Almost a third of China’s gas imports come as LNG from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, the WSJ noted in its report, citing Rystad Energy figures. Russia, in turn, is China’s third-largest supplier of LNG, after Australia and Qatar. But it is China’s biggest pipeline supplier, via the Power of Siberia 1, with flows this year set to reach 38 billion cu m, according to S&P Global.
This is the maximum capacity of the Power of Siberia 1, but the POS 2 will have a capacity of 50 billion cu m. This is a lot of gas with no geopolitical risk that could lead to spikes in prices. As for diversification, China also imports quite a lot of natural gas via pipeline from Turkmenistan.
Russia also appears set to benefit from the risk to oil supply from the Middle East and more specifically Iran, the WSJ report suggested. China, which is essentially the only buyer of Iranian crude, is now reconsidering this reliance as well, following the latest developments in the Middle East. One way of reducing said reliance is by boosting oil purchases from Russia, according to analysts. Russia currently accounts for some 20% of China’s oil consumption.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
By Simon Watkins - Jun 24, 2025, 5:00 PM CDT
Even before the latest potentially game-changing developments began involving its longtime financial, political, and military ally Iran, it was clear that Iraq needed to focus more on the independent development of its own resources -- most notably in energy -- for its future. In the weeks leading up to the Western-backed Israeli attacks on Iran, the U.S. removed the longstanding waivers that allowed Iraq to keep importing electricity and gas from its neighbour to power 40% of its grid and rolled out new sanctions aimed at cutting Baghdad’s support for Tehran. For years, Iraq has been talking about increasing its oil production to various figures – 6 and bit million barrels per day (bpd), 7 and a bit million, 8 and a bit million– whatever; they have all amounted to nothing. Now though, Baghdad will need to start doing something to achieve these increases. So, can it meaningfully increase its oil production, and will it do so?
Theoretically, Iraq has the natural resources to increase its oil production to way above the current average of just over 4 million bpd. Iraq officially holds 145 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves (nearly 18% of the Middle East’s total, and the fifth biggest on the planet). Unofficially, it likely holds much more oil than this, with the Oil Ministry stating in October 2010 that its undiscovered resources amounted to around 215 billion barrels. This number had independently been arrived at back into 1997 by highly respected oil and gas firm, Petrolog. That said, the figure did not include the parts of northern Iraq in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan. With conservative estimates for these included, the International Energy Agency underlined that Iraq’s ultimately recoverable resources totalled about 246 billion barrels of crude and natural gas liquids. Given this, the ‘Integrated National Energy Strategy’ (INES) report of 2012 that was funded and developed by the World Bank, with further assistance from management consultancy firm then-Booz & Company, identified three realistic future oil production scenarios, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. These showed how the country could increase its oil output to either the ‘Low Production’ scenario of 6 million bpd by 2025, the ‘Medium Production’ scenario of 9 million bpd by 2020, or the ‘High Production’ scenario of 13 million bpd by 2017.
A combination of indolence on the part of some of those in charge of Iraq’s oil strategy and corruption from others in the corollary political apparatus meant years of little tangible progress being made on any of these scenarios. It also eventually resulted in the withdrawal of many Western firms from Iraq that could effect such significant oil output increases, as repeatedly detailed by OilPrice.com. At that point onwards, it had become increasingly clear that the intention of the Federal Government of Iraq in Baghdad (and its key backers China and Russia) was to push the West out of a unified Iraq, having subsumed the northern semi-autonomous Kurdistan region into the rest of the country. However, given this scenario, the U.S. and its allies have pushed back with the opposite agenda, as also analysed in full in my latest book. To put it plainly: the U.S. and its key allies ultimately want to the northern Kurdistan region of Iraq to terminate all links with Chinese, Russian and Iranian companies connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps over the long term. This could then be used as a bridgehead to reassert the West’s influence in the rest of Iraq through big investment deals firstly and then related infrastructure developments. On the other side of the equation, China and Russia have long been behind the idea of rolling the Kurdistan Region into the wider Iraq and keeping the West out forever. As a senior political source in Moscow exclusively told OilPrice.com many months ago: “Iraq will be one unified country and by keeping the West out of energy deals there, the end of Western hegemony in the Middle East will become the decisive chapter in the West’s final demise.”
The West’s recent strategic push in this context has seen not just the US$25bn five-oil field development by the U.K.’s BP in the north of the country around the Kurdistan Region announced but also the US$27 billion four-pronged deal by France’s TotalEnergies in the south of the country as well. Several other deals by Western firms are in the making too, all of which are aimed at preventing the final move of Iraq into the China-Russia sphere of influence and eventually reversing it. Indeed, May 19 saw two deals signed by U.S. firms HKN Energy, and WesternZagros, to develop two fields – the Miran gas field and the Topkhana oil and gas field -- in the Kurdistan area. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright made it very clear about the deeper intention behind these deals, saying that they align with the administration’s broader strategy of striking commercial deals with allies to counter Iran’s influence. By extension, given the extremely strong links between Tehran and Beijing and Moscow, this also means countering China’s and Russia’s influence across Iraq as well.
More recently in this precise regard was the announcement that the Iraqi Drilling Company (IDC) is making steady progress on its project to drill 15 oil wells in the North Rumaila oil field, alongside the U.S.’s Halliburton and the Basra Energy Company, with the latter being wholly owned by BP and also PetroChina, for the time being at least. The entire Rumaila field – split into North and South -- lies around 30 kilometres north of Iraq’s southern border with Kuwait and, together with Kirkuk, has produced around 80% cent of Iraq’s cumulative oil production to date. BP has long been in talks with Iraq’s Oil Ministry to push production up to 2.1 million bpd from the current circa-1.2 million bpd which, given the field’s estimated 17 billion barrels in proven reserves, should not be difficult. However, there is a catch – and this is that in order to achieve this step up in production substantial sustained water-injection would be needed to maintain the required pressure. Happily for the West’s plans for Iraq, this is exactly what one of TotalEnergies’ four key projects is geared to do in the shape of the Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP). This involves taking seawater from the Persian Gulf and transporting it to oil production facilities to boost pressure at key oil reservoirs.
Both the longstanding stalwart fields of Rumaila and Kirkuk -- the former beginning production in the 1950s and the latter in the 1920s -- require major ongoing water injection on this scale from this project. Rumaila produced more than 25% of its oil in place before water injection was required because its main reservoir formation (at least its southern part) connects to a very large natural aquifer that has helped to push the oil out of the reservoir. In Kirkuk’s case, production dropped significantly after output of only around 5% of the oil in place. Most of Iraq’s oil fields fall between these two cases in terms of water injection requirements, but its other big fields -- West Qurna (1 and 2), Majnoon, and Zubair – are at the higher end. This means that for Iraq to reach any of the significant increases in oil production envisaged in the key 2012 INES report – from 6 million bpd up to 13 million bpd – Iraq’s Oil Ministry, and whichever government is in power at the time, will need the CSSP up and running and working sustainably, and this means TotalEnergies and the West. Given this confluence of geopolitical and economic imperatives, the chances of Iraq finally meaningfully increasing its oil production to a level even vaguely commensurate with its huge reserves look better than they have ever done.
Indian Masterminds Stories
New Delhi: Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has received the Gold Award at the ET Global Awards 2025 under the theme of Sustainable Innovation for its groundbreaking Green Hydrogen initiative. Developed at ONGC’s Mehsana Asset, the project uses microbial electrolysis of produced water—a first-of-its-kind innovation in India—demonstrating a pioneering effort under the Make in India program, led by ONGC JV & BD.
A New Era of Green Hydrogen from Wastewater
Unlike conventional green hydrogen production, which typically consumes large volumes of freshwater, ONGC’s demonstration plant uses produced water – a byproduct of oil production – as the primary feedstock. This not only eliminates the need for freshwater but also treats the effluent, significantly reducing Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), and oil content in the water.
The facility consumes less than 1 kWh of energy per kilogram of hydrogen, powered entirely by solar energy, and achieves a remarkably low production cost of approximately USD 2 per kg—making it one of the most cost-effective and sustainable hydrogen production systems in the country.
Modular, Digital, and Scalable
The system is modular and scalable, with full integration into ONGC’s OB Nautilus digital platform, allowing for remote real-time monitoring and operational efficiency. This innovation aligns with multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals, including:
Driving India’s Energy Transition
This project marks a major milestone in ONGC’s strategy to lead India’s energy transition by deploying cutting-edge technology, circular economy principles, and innovative clean energy solutions. The company’s rapid transition from R&D to field deployment highlights its capability to deliver real-world impact and reinforces ONGC’s leadership in the emerging Green Hydrogen economy, in line with the National Hydrogen Mission of the Government of India.
ONGC stated that this innovation demonstrates its unwavering commitment to decarbonization, sustainability, and building a future-ready energy portfolio where even industrial waste can be transformed into valuable clean energy.
About ONGC
ONGC is India’s largest government-owned oil and gas exploration and production company. Established on August 14, 1956, ONGC is a Maharatna Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) under the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Headquartered in New Delhi, ONGC is pivotal to India’s energy security and economic growth.
Singapore mining entity Bastion Mining has declared victory in its battle for control of ASX-listed Xanadu Mines, announcing its off-market takeover bid is now unconditional after it secured a 55.65 per cent stake in the Mongolian-focused copper and gold explorer.
Bastion committed to declaring the bid unconditional when it hit the 50.1 per cent shareholding threshold to secure majority control. The company quickly accumulated the required shares after tabling its bid for Xanadu in mid-May, with an 8 cents per share offer.
After revealing last week that Chinese mining giant Zijin Mining – a 15.7 per cent shareholder in Xanadu – had accepted Bastion’s offer for its Xanadu holdings, it was a lay down misère that the takeover would succeed.
Zijin, happy to seize the cash on offer, is also Xanadu’s 50:50 joint venture partner in the company’s flagship Kharmagtai copper-gold project in Mongolia – a stake it plans to retain.
Bastion is controlled by 75 per cent owner, Singapore-based investment outfit Boroo Pte Ltd and 25 per cent stakeholder Ganbayar Lkhagvasuren, a current Xanadu director.
Bastion pounced on Xanadu after a planned control deal with Zijin Mining petered out on an exclusivity period the two companies had been using to hammer out terms.
Following Zijin’s acceptance, Xanadu’s independent takeover board committee quickly reaffirmed its recommendation that shareholders accept the Bastion offer without delay, if no superior bid emerged.
The flagship Kharmagtai copper-gold project in Mongolia’s South Gobi region no doubt caught Bastion’s eyes.
The eyebrow-raising resource clocks in at a sensational 730 million tonnes of ore containing 1.6Mt of copper and 4 million ounces of gold.
A recent feasibility study slapped a lofty US$ 930 million (A$1.43 billion) net present value on Kharmagtai, based on a capital investment of US$890 million (A$1.36 billion). The project is tipped to churn out a mouthwatering 80,000t of copper and 170,000 ounces of gold a year, with an impressive operating cost of just 70 cents per pound copper.
The numbers get the thumbs up, with Kharmagtai expected to pay for itself in four years and continue raining cash for almost three decades. It has a projected EBITDA of US$293 million (A$450 million) a year, a nice earn for any companies lucky enough to possess an in-demand project.
With the ownership issue now resolved, it’s time to ‘let the games begin’ to develop Kharmagtai’s copper and gold riches.
https://skillings.net/singapore-based-bastion-mining-wins-xanadu-copper-gold-treasure/
Posted on 24 Jun 2025
Austin Engineering Limited says its South American business unit has successfully completed the manufacture and delivery of a Cat 7495 model dipper bucket to a Chile-based customer.
The previously announced electric rope shovel order is valued at ~A$2.5 million ($1.6 million) and was manufactured at Austin Chile’s facility in La Negra.
While Austin Chile has undertaken dipper and other bucket builds for South American customers, it is the first time it has manufactured a Cat 7495 dipper bucket for local delivery in Chile. The dipper weighs 86-t and can shift approximately 100 t of material per pass, the company says.
Austin purchased Australian bucket manufacturer Mainetec in 2022 to expand its bucket offering and market high value dipper buckets internationally to regions like the Americas where there is a large dipper bucket market to service the large-scale mining operations. This has included the export of a customised, Austin-designed, Armadillo electric rope shovel dipper bucket from Batam to the US, which is now in operation.
Since the acquisition of Mainetec, Austin has expanded its bucket offering abroad for bucket builds, rebuilds and services. It has developed unique bucket designs that improve operational efficiency and can be fitted to standard OEM rope shovels, it says. Using its global locations across APAC and the Americas, it can export them to any location in the world.
Austin CEO and Managing Director, David Singleton, said: “The first delivery of a Cat 7495 dipper bucket manufactured in Chile to a Chilean-based customer is a milestone for Austin and the team at La Negra. We have completed this build whilst simultaneously expanding the manufacturing facility to cope with the larger throughput that we expect in financial year 2026 and beyond.
“I’m pleased to see the bucket business growth that has followed the Mainetec acquisition into international markets like Chile. We continue to see further sales opportunities on the back of South America’s growing mining industry, particularly in copper, lithium and other critical minerals, and our local operations are ideally placed to become a key strategic partner for the region’s mining sector.”
https://im-mining.com/2025/06/24/austin-made-cat-7495-model-dipper-bucket-heads-to-chile-mine-site/
An update from Vizsla Copper ( (TSE:VCU) ) is now available.
Vizsla Copper has commenced drilling at the Thira porphyry copper target within the Poplar Project in central British Columbia. This drilling aims to explore the copper-molybdenum mineralization potential of the largely untested Thira target, which is part of a broader exploration strategy to enhance the company’s copper resource base. The project involves up to 2,400 meters of diamond drilling, targeting a significant alteration zone with promising geochemical and geophysical data. This initiative could strengthen Vizsla Copper’s position in the copper exploration industry and potentially increase its resource estimates, benefiting stakeholders and advancing its growth strategy.
More about Vizsla Copper
Vizsla Copper is a mineral exploration and development company headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, focusing on copper, gold, and molybdenum. The company is primarily engaged in exploring and developing its flagship Woodjam project and other copper properties like Poplar, Copperview, and Redgold in British Columbia.
Average Trading Volume: 619,468
Technical Sentiment Signal: Buy
Current Market Cap: C$33.75M
Summary
Thesis
Nucor (NYSE:NUE) is a U.S.-focused producer of raw steel and steel products. This makes it a beneficiary of the recent steel tariffs enacted by the U.S. Administration. In addition, due to its use of electric arc furnace steel mills and relatively consistent profitability, it is likely a better investment than many of its steel industry competitors. However, it is still vulnerable to similar forces that impact its competitors, such as the risk of a recession and needing to source its input materials from other companies. Consequently, I would rate it as a buy compared to its competitors, but a sell based on the potential risks it faces, so overall I would rate this company as a hold.
Company Overview
Nucor is a primarily U.S.-focused steel producer with three main operating segments: steel mills, steel products, and raw materials. Its U.S. focus has made it a beneficiary of the recent U.S. enacted steel tariffs, especially as the U.S. was a net importer of steel in 2024, which is evidenced by its stock price increase in response to steel tariff announcements. In addition, Nucor’s steel mills are 100% electric arc furnaces (EAF) which means their resulting carbon emissions are much lower than the carbon emissions for basic oxygen-focused (BOF) competitors (see figure below).
However, their EAF steel mills require steel scrap and direct reduced iron (DRI) which Nucor must source through various suppliers. Nucor consumes most of the sourced scrap and DRI material with only a small percentage sold to external customers, which makes this the smallest external revenue-generating segment with sales of less than $2 billion (see figure below). Conversely, Nucor's steel mills accounted for 61% of 2024 revenues, with 80% of steel mill output sold to external customers and the remainder being consumed by Nucor’s steel products segment. Due to the production of higher value products, its steel product segment accounted for 33% of 2024 revenues despite only consuming 20% of Nucor’s raw steel production.
Looking at steel mill output over time, it has gradually been increasing over the last 10 years from around 20 million tons to around 25 million tons (see figure below). Nucor's production accounts for around a quarter of U.S.-produced steel, and a much smaller percentage of global steel production, estimated at 1,885 million tons of steel produced of which 1,005 million tons was produced in China. Interestingly, Nucor has the capacity to produce more raw steel, as its steel mill utilization rate was 76% in 2024, and it can therefore replace some of the steel the U.S. might have imported before tariffs were introduced. Also, it has even more relative capacity than its other segments, with a 58% utilization rate for steel products and a 73% utilization rate for raw materials.
Comparing Nucor to its main competitors using the following peer list with Seeking Alpha as a source, Nucor’s stock price performance has been decent on both a relative and absolute basis. Its stock price has gone up around 169% over the past decade, which is worse than Steel Dynamic’s (STLD) performance of 471%, but better than ArcelorMittal’s (MT) and POSCO Holdings’ (PKX) performances of -4% and -6% respectively. It is worth noting that Nucor and Steel Dynamics only use EAFs for their steelmaking process, which could have provided them with a business and cost advantage over their competitors. Posco and ArcelorMittal both operate a mix of integrated blast furnaces and EAFs.
Company Financials
Nucor’s fiscal year aligns with the calendar year, and its most recent annual report is from 2024. Nucor recorded positive net income for 2024 as well as for 2023 and 2022, although it declined each year (see table below). Consequently, its net margin shrank from 18% in 2022 to 13% in 2023 to 7% in 2024. This margin compression was primarily due to declining revenues, as costs declined slightly over the period. Given that Nucor’s current market capitalization is around $29 billion and its 2024 net income was $2.0 billion, the resulting price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is around 15, which is significantly below the current U.S. stock market P/E ratio of around 24. The P/E ratio falls to around 6 using 2023 earnings and around 4 using 2022 earnings, so Nucor seems to be undervalued based on this valuation metric.
Nucor’s balance sheet as of December 31, 2024, looks quite strong, with its cash and cash equivalents covering over half of its long-term debt, and its long-term debt being less than half of its current assets. Its primary assets are inventories and property, plant, and equipment, while its primary liability is long-term debt. Assets totaled $33.9 billion and liabilities totaled $12.5 billion, resulting in a net asset value (NAV) of $21.4 billion. Using a market capitalization for Nucor of around $29 billion gives Nucor a price-to-NAV (P/NAV) ratio of around 1.36. This compares to a similar P/NAV ratio of 1.31 in 2023 and means that its stock capitalization is mostly covered by the net value of its assets.
Company Valuations
To evaluate whether Nucor is a buy or a sell, it is useful to compare its valuation with that of its competitors. Using the information on stock market capitalization and shareholder equity from Seeking Alpha, I estimate a P/NAV of 2.09 for Steel Dynamics, 0.47 for ArcelorMittal, and 0.39 for Posco. This makes Nucor with a P/NAV of 1.36 relatively overvalued compared to its peers. However, it is worth noting that much of the NAV in ArcelorMittal and Posco is tied up in BOF steel mills, which the steel industry is in the process of replacing with EAF steel mills.
Given that Nucor had a fairly low P/E ratio in 2024 and consequently a fairly high earnings yield, a lower earnings yield among its competitors would show Nucor to be undervalued on that metric. Interestingly, according to the table below, Nucor’s eight-year average earnings yield is in the middle of the pack when compared to its competitors. Its average earnings yield is higher than that of Steel Dynamics overall and for most years in the 2017-2024 period. Its average earnings yield is around the same as that of Posco, although Nucor’s earnings yield in more recent years has tended to be higher. Nucor has a lower average earnings yield than ArcelorMittal, however, ArcelorMittal has had years with negative earnings yields, while Nucor’s earnings yields have been consistently positive throughout the 2017-2024 period. Therefore, while Nucor’s earnings yields may not be higher than those of all its competitors, it definitely has the best earnings yield profile.
Earnings per share and prices obtained from Seeking Alpha with adjustments made to POSCO as original earnings per share values were too high
Investment Risks
Based on the information presented above, Nucor looks like a buy based on a solid balance sheet and a good earnings yield profile, and a hold based on its 10-year price performance and its relatively high, although potentially justifiable, P/NAV ratio. Therefore, it is useful to compare Nucor to its peers on the potential downside and upside risks in the sector. These risks include tariffs, the high carbon intensity of the steel industry, and an economic downturn, and in all three Nucor’s risks appear lower than its competitors, therefore Nucor may be a safer buy for gaining steel industry exposure.
Nucor’s primary U.S.-based exposure makes it less vulnerable to a tariff war than its more globally diversified non-U.S.-based competitors such as ArcelorMittal and Posco. In fact, Nucor will likely benefit from higher tariffs on steel. On June 2nd, after President Trump announced that steel tariffs would double from 25% to 50%, Nucor’s stock price increased from 109.36 to 120.40, a more than 10% increase. The stock price of its U.S.-based competitor Steel Dynamics also increased by around 10%, while ArcelorMittal’s stock price was flat and Posco’s stock prices fell by 3%. Furthermore, Nucor announced two consecutive increases to the price of its hot-rolled coil product in June, which confirms that future earnings will likely be higher for Nucor because of the tariffs.
On the flip side, Nucor is vulnerable to decreases in steel tariffs. It is likely though that decreases in steel tariffs would not be too harmful to Nucor, as Nucor’s earnings yield in 2024 was already higher than that of its tariff-exposed rivals ArcelorMittal and Posco, before the 2025 steel tariffs were enacted. A potential tariff risk to Nucor could be higher tariffs imposed on its steel scrap and DRI inputs, as that would increase Nucor’s input cost while not increasing its output price. However, if these tariffs are not imposed, Nucor could potentially benefit from importing more steel scrap and DRI and using it to produce more steel within the U.S. at a higher margin, given its ample capacity to increase production, as the U.S. was a net importer of steel in 2024.
As the steel industry moves towards reducing carbon emissions, demand for low-carbon input materials such as steel scrap and DRI will increase, and consequently, the price for these materials will increase. If Nucor does not have a competitive edge in obtaining these materials, it may face a margin squeeze from higher input costs, but not higher output prices. Nucor obtains its steel scrap from its operation of The David J. Joseph Company, the leading broker of ferrous scrap in North America. This puts Nucor in a good position to obtain steel scrap, although its supply of steel scrap still comes from other companies. Regarding DRI, while Nucor operates plants that convert high-grade iron ore into DRI, it still needs to obtain the high-grade iron ore from other companies. Therefore, while Nucor is in a better position than competitors such as ArcelorMittal and Posco in operating exclusively EAF steel mills, supplying those steel mills with enough low-cost input material poses a significant future risk to Nucor operations.
Another significant risk is that of a recession. Given that many analysts are predicting an imminent economic downturn, the current relatively low Nucor P/E ratio may be justifiable. It also leaves some room for earnings to decrease further due to a recession. However, given that Nucor’s earnings in 2024 were $2.0 billion compared to $7.6 billion in 2022, there is a significant chance that earnings could go negative in a recession, which would likely result in a substantial fall in the stock price. On the positive side though, Nucor recorded positive earnings for each of the last eight years, unlike its competitor ArcelorMittal, which had a negative earnings yield in 2019 and 2020. In addition, ArcelorMittal had a lower earnings yield than Nucor in 2024, and Posco’s earnings yield in 2024 was around half of Nucor’s, making both these companies more at risk for future negative earnings than Nucor.
Final Thoughts
While Nucor may be a better relative buy than some of its competitors, it still faces similar risks to them. These risks include the potential of a recession and potential supply constraints for the inputs needed for clean steelmaking. Given likely future supply constraints for EAF input materials such as DRI requiring high-grade iron ore, a potential strategy that would involve less risk and higher upside, would be to invest in high-grade iron ore. One way to do this is through Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp. (LIF:CA)(OTCPK:LIFZF) which I covered here and here. It has a royalty on a long-life high-grade iron ore mine in Canada, which can produce DRI-grade material to feed EAF plants. The fact that it is a royalty company further enhances its risk-reward profile, as royalty companies have a long history of outperforming other mining and metals companies due to the advantages of the royalty model.
Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
The company is investing in the decarbonization of steelmaking through the development of a circular economy
Since 2022, global mining and steel company ArcelorMittal has been actively strengthening its scrap processing capacities in Europe, seeing this as the key to reducing CO2 emissions and transitioning to a circular steel production model. This is stated in a press release from ArcelorMittal France.
Recycling one ton of secondary raw materials avoids up to 1.5 tons of CO2, thus already making a significant contribution to the decarbonization of the industry.
At its sites in France, ArcelorMittal is investing in state-of-the-art equipment for deeper scrap integration. In Fos-sur-Mer, thanks to the launch of a new ladle furnace, supported by the France 2030 program, scrap utilization will increase fivefold, resulting in a 10% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2025. In Dunkirk, processing capacity has doubled thanks to warehouse expansion, a new crane, and logistics optimization.
At its plants in Châteauneuf and Le Creusot, which operate electric arc furnaces, the company already produces steel from 100% scrap with a significantly reduced carbon footprint.
To ensure continuous access to high-quality raw materials, ArcelorMittal acquired four large scrap recycling companies in 2022: Riwald Recycling (Netherlands), ALBA International Recycling (Germany), John Lawrie Metals (Scotland), and Zlomex (Poland). This has strengthened its position in the collection, sorting, and preparation of scrap in the EU.
Despite growing demand for steel, which cannot be met solely by secondary raw materials, scrap is already an effective and affordable tool for reducing emissions. ArcelorMittal is also investing in research into cleaning scrap of impurities and is collaborating with other industries to facilitate waste sorting in the future.
ArcelorMittal is considering the construction of an electric arc furnace at its site in Fos-sur-Mer (France) with an investment of €750 million. A public dialogue is currently underway at the initiative of the French National Public Debate Commission. The company emphasizes that the implementation of the project depends on clarity in the EU regulatory environment regarding the protection of European steel producers.
Dividends
Mesabi Trust pays an annual dividend of $2.24 per share and has a dividend yield of 9.9%. Kumba Iron Ore pays an annual dividend of $0.55 per share and has a dividend yield of 10.7%. Mesabi Trust pays out 31.5% of its earnings in the form of a dividend.
Valuation & Earnings
This table compares Mesabi Trust and Kumba Iron Ore”s revenue, earnings per share (EPS) and valuation.
Kumba Iron Ore has higher revenue and earnings than Mesabi Trust.
Volatility & Risk
Mesabi Trust has a beta of 0.56, suggesting that its stock price is 44% less volatile than the S&P 500. Comparatively, Kumba Iron Ore has a beta of 1.06, suggesting that its stock price is 6% more volatile than the S&P 500.
Profitability
This table compares Mesabi Trust and Kumba Iron Ore’s net margins, return on equity and return on assets.
Summary
Kumba Iron Ore beats Mesabi Trust on 5 of the 9 factors compared between the two stocks.
About Mesabi Trust
Mesabi Trust, a royalty trust, engages in iron ore mining business in the United States. Mesabi Trust was founded in 1961 and is based in New York, New York.
About Kumba Iron Ore
Kumba Iron Ore Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, extraction, beneficiation, marketing, sale, and shipping of iron ore for the steel industry primarily in South Africa, China, rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. It produces iron ore at Sishen and Kolomela mines in the Northern Cape Province. The company is also involved in the operation of a port in Saldanha Bay in the Western Cape Province. Kumba Iron Ore Limited was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. Kumba Iron Ore Limited operates as a subsidiary of Anglo South Africa (Pty) Ltd.
Posted on 24 Jun 2025
Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting are to invest $1.61 billion (Rio Tinto share $800 million) to develop the Hope Downs 2 iron ore project in Western Australia’s Pilbara region.
The Hope Downs 2 project, to mine Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting’s Hope Downs 2 and Bedded Hilltop deposits, has now received all necessary State and Federal Government approvals, Rio Tinto noted.
The two new above-water-table iron ore pits will have a combined total annual production capacity of 31 Mt and will sustain production from the Hope Downs JV into the future.
Rio Tinto Iron Ore Chief Executive, Simon Trott, said: “Approval of Hope Downs 2 is a key milestone for Rio Tinto, as we invest in the next generation of iron ore mines in the Pilbara. These projects are part of our strategy to continue investing in Australian iron ore and to sustain Pilbara production for decades to come, supporting jobs, local businesses and the state and national economies.
“The Pilbara has been critical to global steel supply for more than 60 years, and we are committed to ensuring it remains so well into the future.”
Rio Tinto has engaged with the Nyiyaparli, Banjima and the Ngarlawangga Peoples, along with relevant government stakeholders, to ensure the responsible management of heritage and the environment in development of the project.
The project includes new non-process infrastructure precincts, railway crossings and haul roads, as well as realigning a 6-km section of the Great Northern Highway.
Ore mined at the two sites will be transported to Hope Downs 1 for processing, with first ore from the deposits and associated infrastructure scheduled for 2027.
More than 950 jobs will be created during construction and, once operational, the Hope Downs 2 project will help sustain a workforce of about 1,000 full time equivalent roles at Greater Hope Downs.
Hope Downs 2 is part of Rio Tinto’s tranche of replacement projects that underpin the company’s ongoing commitment to the Pilbara, and which will have combined total capacity of about 130 Mt/y.
During the next three years (2025-2027), Rio Tinto expects to invest more than $13 billion on new mines, plant and equipment.
The company has a clear pathway to achieve and sustain mid-term system capacity of 345-360 Mt/y from its Pilbara iron ore business, with a prefeasibility study also underway on the Rhodes Ridge project, the Pilbara’s best undeveloped iron ore deposit, according to Rio Tinto.
Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting are equal partners in the Hope Downs Joint Venture. The JV was originally established in 2006, with Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting’s shared history extending back to the early 1960’s.
Hope Downs 1 started production in 2007, followed by Hope Downs 4, with first ore in 2013.