Results for 2025 risk further unsettling economies about China’s trade practices and overcapacity, and their own over-reliance on Chinese products
Reuters Wed 14 Jan 2026 04.50 GMT
China has reported a strong export run in 2025 with a record trillion-dollar surplus, as its producers brace for three more years of a Trump administration set on slowing the manufacturing powerhouse by shifting US orders to other markets.
Beijing’s resilience to renewed tariff tensions since Donald Trump returned to the US presidency last January has emboldened Chinese firms to shift their focus to south-east Asia, Africa and Latin America to offset US duties.
With Beijing looking to exports to counteract a prolonged property slump and sluggish domestic demand, the record surplus risks further unsettling economies concerned about China’s trade practices and overcapacity, as well as their own over-reliance on key Chinese products.
The full-year trade surplus came in at $1.189tn – a figure on par with the GDP of a top-20 economy globally like Saudi Arabia – customs data showed on Wednesday, having broken the trillion-dollar ceiling for the first time in November.
“The momentum for global trade growth looks to be insufficient, and the external environment for China’s foreign trade development remains severe and complex,” Wang Jun, a vice-minister at China’s customs administration, said at a press briefing on Wednesday.
China’s record trade surplus reveals its biggest strength – and hidden weaknessRead more
However, “with more diversified trading partners, [China’s] ability to withstand risks has been significantly enhanced”, Wang said, adding that “the fundamentals for China’s foreign trade remain solid”.
Outbound shipments from the world’s second-biggest economy grew 6.6% in value terms year-on-year in December, compared with a 5.9% increase in November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 3.0% increase.
Imports were up 5.7% after a 1.9% bump the month earlier and also beat a forecast for a 0.9% uptick.
China’s yuan held steady after the upbeat data even as equity investors welcomed the forecast-beating numbers. The benchmark Shanghai Composite index and blue-chip CSI300 index both rose more than 1% in morning deals.
The Chinese monthly export surpluses exceeded $100bn seven times last year – partially underpinned by a weakened yuan – up from just once in 2024, underscoring that Trump’s actions have barely dented China’s trade with the wider world even if he has curbed US-bound shipments.
Economists expect China to continue gaining global market share this year, helped by Chinese firms setting up overseas production hubs that provide lower-tariff access to the US and EU, as well as by strong demand for lower-grade chips and other electronics.
China’s car making industry saw overall exports jump 19.4% to 5.79m vehicles last year, with pure EV shipments up 48.8%. China would probably remain the world’s top auto exporter for a third year after first beating Japan in 2023.
Beijing, however, has shown signs of recognising it must moderate its industrial exports if it is to sustain its success, and the leadership has been increasingly cognisant and vocal about imbalances in China’s economy and the image problem its export volumes are causing.
After November’s trillion-dollar surplus data, the Chinese premier, Li Qiang, was quoted last week on national television as calling for “proactively expanding imports and promoting the balanced development of imports and exports”.
China also scrapped subsidy-like export tax rebates for its solar industry, a longstanding point of friction with EU states.
Lawmakers in December passed revisions to the foreign trade law after two rather than the usual three readings, in a signal to members of a major trans-Pacific trade pact that China is prepared to shift from industrial subsidies towards freer, more open trade.
Despite the year-long truce on tariffs that Trump and the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, struck in late October, US duties of 47.5% on Chinese goods are well above the roughly 35% level analysts say enables Chinese firms to export to the US at a profit.
Executive Summary:
Rigs: The total US rig count increased during the week of Dec. 28 from 515 to 516.
Infrastructure: WTI prices have reached a threshold that could stall activity in the Permian Basin, the last engine of US oil production growth.
Supply & Demand: The US natural gas pipeline sample, a proxy for change in oil production, increased 1.2% W-o-W across all liquids-focused basins.
Rigs:
Infrastructure:
Crude oil prices plumbed new depths in mid-December, capping off a challenging year for producers. WTI prices reached a threshold that could stall activity in the Permian Basin, the last engine of US oil production growth.
On Dec. 15, WTI fell to ~$55.27/bbl, the lowest close since the world was recovering from the global pandemic in 2021. Consensus opinion expects crude production to flatten or potentially decline in 2026, a result of geopolitical risks and fear of a looming global supply glut.
The market is dangerously close to a price where Permian oil supply begins to turn over. Permian rig counts have averaged 240 rigs to date In 4Q25, down ~50 rigs from 1Q025’s 291 rigs between the Midland and Delaware basins.
https://eastdaley.com/crude-oil-edge/recent-wti-decline-risks-permian-production-outlook
Oil prices rose to a two-month high on Wednesday as traders priced in a heightened risk premium on Iran, where protests have been raging, and President Trump said the country's ruling regime would "pay a big price."
International pricing benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) have both gained more than 10% over the past five trading sessions to trade above $66.10 and $61.80 per barrel, respectively, for the first time since October as geopolitical tensions have roiled global energy markets.
As tensions have somewhat stabilized in Venezuela and shipments have resumed — commodities trading houses Vitol and Trafigura have begun moving Venezuelan crude out of the country — attention has turned toward Iran, a perennial oil focal point in the Middle East.
"Iran's at the nerve center of the global oil market," said Ben Cahill, the director for energy markets and policy at the University of Texas Austin's Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis.
"If there's a physical supply disruption, the market will react in a big way."
'At least limited interruptions in production'
Iran is a crucial point of leverage for oil prices for two reasons: its production and geography.
First, the country produces more than 3 million barrels and exports around 1.5 million barrels per day. It is also sitting on more than 200 billion barrels of proved reserves, ranking only behind Venezuela and Saudi Arabia globally. Iran also has a geological advantage over Venezuela, with its lighter, medium-weight oil that's easier to refine and more attractive for producers and buyers.
Mohsen Paknejad, the Oil Minister of Iran, attends the opening session of the 27th Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) Ministerial Meeting in Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 23, 2025. (Noushad Thekkayil/NurPhoto via Getty Images) · NurPhoto via Getty Images
Iran also largely controls the Strait of Hormuz, a global chokepoint for oil flows.
In 2024, an average of 20 million barrels per day of oil — or around 25% of the total global seaborne trade of petroleum products — moved through the Strait, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Any attempts by Iran to close the Strait would put immediate and severe upward pressure on oil prices.
On June 13, 2025, Israeli military forces launched airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, and Iran retaliated. Even though the Strait of Hormuz was never actually closed, the price of Brent jumped by roughly 7%, from $69 per barrel to $74 per barrel, within one day.
The impact of any disruptions hinges on just how many barrels of oil are taken off the market, alongside other risks, such as the fall of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei or the US ramping up threats.
BP Plc said it expects to take as much as $5 billion in writedowns from its energy transition business, just weeks after a leadership change as it pivots back to fossil fuels.
In an update ahead of earnings next month, the energy giant also flagged weak oil trading and flat production for the fourth-quarter, while net debt was reduced.
The update follows the shock ouster of chief executive officer Murray Auchincloss, who sought to reset the company after years of failed low-carbon bets and pressure from activist shareholder Elliott Investment Management. New Chairman Albert Manifold said changes weren’t happening fast enough and named Woodside Energy Group Ltd. CEO Meg O’Neill to replace him.
Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg
The London-based oil major is divesting non-strategic assets, with the sales helping bring down debt. Meanwhile, the weak oil trading results and flat production in a lower oil price environment will add more pressure to BP’s ability to maintain its pace of share repurchases.
The company’s “next logical step” is to halt the buybacks and “allow for further de-leveraging in a weaker macro environment,” RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria said in a note on Wednesday.
BP shares fell as much as 1.7% in early London trading after the report.
O’Neill will take over in April with some of the groundwork to turn the company around laid out for her, and the writedowns should help provide a cleaner slate.
BP didn’t specify which assets were being written off, but its low-carbon portfolio includes a global offshore wind joint venture with Jera Co., as well as solar power, biofuels and electric-vehicle charging. Borkhataria anticipates more assets “to be on the chopping block.”
The company in December agreed to sell a majority stake in its Castrol lubricants division to US investment firm Stonepeak Partners, a crucial step in its efforts to reduce debt and refocus the business on fossil fuels. Last year it also announced a spate of oil and gas field startups.
Divestment proceeds of $5.3 billion in 2025 don’t include Castrol, BP said. The stake sale should raise about $6 billion, BP said last month. The company, which has the highest leverage among top oil majors, is targeting $20 billion from asset sales by the end of 2027.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-flags-5-billion-energy-075905946.html
Exxon Mobil is making preparations to resume processing Venezuelan crude oil at its large Baton Rouge, Louisiana refinery, industry sources said to Reuters.
The facility, which has a capacity of about 522,500 barrels per day (b/d), previously handled heavy, sour crude from Venezuela but stopped doing so after US sanctions were imposed on the South American nation.
The move marks a potential shift in operations amid evolving oil market dynamics, though the company has not publicly commented on the plans.
Recently, Exxon Mobil showed its interest in returning to Venezuela, and it is preparing to send a technical evaluation team to the South American nation within weeks, despite US President Donald Trump signaling he may block the oil major from operating there.
This came after holding a high-profile White House meeting of oil executives last week, during which Trump urged US energy companies to invest up to $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela’s struggling oil sector after US forces captured and removed President Nicolás Maduro on January 3.
At that meeting, Exxon CEO Darren Woods told the administration that Venezuela would need significant legal and investment protections before Exxon would commit capital, saying the country was effectively “uninvestable” under current conditions.
Trump publicly criticized Woods’s stance and said he may keep Exxon out of Venezuelan operations altogether.
India's largest state-owned refiner, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), has bought its first-ever crude from Ecuador as it seeks to replace part of its Russian crude deliveries with supplies from as far as South America.
IOC has purchased in a tender its first cargo from Ecuador - 2 million barrels of the medium-heavy sour Oriente crude, for delivery at the end of March, trade sources told Reuters on Wednesday.
The biggest state refiner in India and all other Indian firms are scouring the globe for favorably priced crude to replace the Russian supply they have lost following the U.S. sanctions on Russia's top producers Rosneft and Lukoil.
IOC has pledged full compliance with the U.S. sanctions and has tapped the market to buy non-sanctioned Russian crude oil for delivery early this year.
In October, following the U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, IOC reportedly bought five cargoes of Russian crude from non-sanctioned entities for arrival in December.
Non-sanctioned Russian supply is not enough, apparently, to meet Indian Oil Corp's needs, so the refiner is purchasing crude from as far as Ecuador.
In December, IOC bought its first crude from Colombia, as part of an optional supply deal with Colombia's state oil firm Ecopetrol, trade sources told Reuters.
India is estimated to have imported $168 billion worth of Russian crude oil since Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
But after U.S. sanctions and amid difficult trade negotiations with the Trump Administration, Indian refiners have turned to various producers in the Americas and West Africa to replace part of the Russian volumes.
India is also asking domestic refiners to provide timely and accurate data on a weekly basis of imports of Russian and U.S. crude, as New Delhi plans to show the data to the U.S. Administration as it seeks a trade deal, sources with knowledge of the efforts told Reuters earlier this month.
India has been trying to seal a trade deal with the United States for months, but the Trump Administration has singled out India as the key financier of Russia's war spending as the buyer of large volumes of Russian crude oil.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
A pair of ag experts say Brazil’s ongoing crop expansion could impact the value of U.S. soybeans in 2026.
Joana Colussi, assistant professor at Purdue University, says the country is expected to produce another record soybean crop this year.
“There is a forecast that Brazil could reach over 6.5 billion bushels in this crop season,” she says. “Even though farmers are going to increase their corn production a little bit in area, there is an expectation that corn production will decrease compared to last year’s record.”
The USDA’s latest supply and demand report was above pre-report expectations with the U.S. producing 4.262 billion bushels of soybeans in 2025.
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says global market competition is limiting price potential.
“For the buyer, whether it’s China or somebody else, they’ve got a dual pipeline of beans available to them,” he says. “I’m concerned you’re not going to see bullish markets until weather becomes a factor.”
Colussi says Brazil’s expanded export volumes are giving buyers flexibility. But, “For 2026, there is an expectation that Brazil will decrease its exports to China. Agriculture will continue growing, just not at the same speed as it has in the past due to their financial situation.”
CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crop is set for Thursday, January 15th.
Molybdenum market update on January 14, 2026
The domestic molybdenum market overall showed a pressured downward trend, mainly due to simultaneous declines in steel tender volume and price, strong profit-taking sentiment among suppliers, weak international molybdenum market trend, and insufficient confidence among industry players in the future market. In the short term, industry insiders are focusing on downstream inquiry and procurement situation before the Spring Festival and shipment dynamics of molybdenum mining enterprises.
In the molybdenum concentrate market, with reduced downstream inquiry activity and oscillating downward international molybdenum prices, many suppliers became cautious in quotations, and product prices declined to around RMB 3,990 per tonne-degree. In the ferromolybdenum market, the overall trend was average, with obvious price-pressing sentiment from steel enterprises and quotation reductions from molybdenum mining enterprises, causing shaken confidence among ferromolybdenum manufacturers to support prices, with ferromolybdenum prices decreased by approximately RMB 3,000/ton today; however, some steel enterprises are still willing to enter the market to tender for ferromolybdenum. In the molybdenum chemical and related products market, buying and selling atmosphere in the market was relatively quiet. With both buyers and sellers basically maintaining rigid transactions, product prices mainly adjusted passively following fluctuations at the raw material end, with current molybdate prices decreased by approximately RMB 3,000/ton.
On the news front: Data from the China Iron and Steel Association show that in early January 2026, social inventory of the five major steel varieties in 21 cities was 7.11 million tonnes, decreased by 100,000 tonnes month-on-month, down 1.4%, with the decline amplitude narrowed; increased by 480,000 tonnes compared to the same period last year, up 7.2%. By region, social steel inventory in the seven major regions showed mixed increases and decreases month-on-month, with East China recording the largest volume reduction and Central China showing the largest percentage decline. In early January, social inventory of the five major steel varieties showed mixed increases and decreases month-on-month, with wire rod recording the largest increase amplitude and rebar showing the largest decline amplitude; year-on-year, cold-rolled coil was the variety with the largest volume increase and percentage increase, while rebar inventory decreased.
http://news.chinatungsten.com/en/tungsten-product-news/174322-tpn-11915.html
By Muflih Hidayaton January 15, 2026
Australia's critical minerals sector faces unprecedented challenges as climate volatility intensifies across the continent's resource-rich regions. The nation's mining operations, concentrated in geographically vulnerable corridors, reveal systemic weaknesses in infrastructure design and operational resilience that ripple through global commodity markets.
Weather disrupts australian copper coal logistics through interconnected vulnerabilities spanning transportation networks, processing facilities, and export terminals. These disruptions expose fundamental questions about supply chain resilience in an era of increasing meteorological extremes. Furthermore, industry evolution trends indicate that climate adaptation has become central to operational planning across the sector.
Understanding Australia's Mining Infrastructure Vulnerability
The Geographic Concentration Risk in Queensland's Resource Corridors
Queensland's dominance in Australia's mineral export landscape creates a single-point-of-failure scenario that reverberates globally when weather events strike. The state's infrastructure networks, designed decades ago for different climate patterns, now face unprecedented stress from extended rainfall events and extreme weather phenomena.
The Mount Isa rail line exemplifies this vulnerability. As of January 2026, multiple sections remained closed following weeks of continuous rainfall, with Queensland Rail unable to confirm reopening timelines. This critical artery supports copper concentrate, zinc products, and fertilizer exports, representing billions of dollars in annual commodity flows through a single transportation corridor.
Key vulnerability factors include:
• Geographic concentration of major mines within flood-prone regions
• Single-mode transportation dependencies for multi-billion dollar operations
• Limited alternative routing capacity during primary network failures
• Infrastructure age and design specifications inadequate for modern weather intensity
The concentration risk becomes apparent when examining Queensland's role in global supply chains. Copper concentrate from Mount Isa operations feeds international smelting networks, while thermal and metallurgical coal from the region powers Asian steel mills and electricity generation. When these corridors fail, the impacts cascade across continents.
Historical weather pattern analysis reveals increasing frequency and intensity of disruptive events. The January 2026 disruptions, characterized by weeks of continuous rainfall, represent a pattern of prolonged weather events that strain infrastructure beyond design parameters. Unlike brief storm events, extended disruptions compound logistical challenges and amplify market uncertainty.
Critical Infrastructure Chokepoints in Australian Mining
Australia's mining sector relies on critical infrastructure nodes that function as chokepoints during weather events. The Mount Isa rail line and Central Queensland Coal Network represent two distinct approaches to weather resilience, with markedly different outcomes during extreme conditions.
Mount Isa Rail Line Infrastructure Analysis:
The Central Queensland Coal Network demonstrates superior operational resilience through different infrastructure design and management approaches. While experiencing minor isolated restrictions during the same weather events, the network maintained operational status through coordinated management and potentially more robust engineering standards.
Australian rail operator Aurizon's ability to maintain coal network operations contrasts sharply with Queensland Rail's extended closures on the Mount Isa line. This operational disparity suggests that infrastructure resilience varies significantly across Australia's mining corridors, creating uneven vulnerability profiles for different commodity sectors.
Infrastructure vulnerability assessment reveals:
• Rail network engineering standards vary significantly across corridors
• Port facility storm hardening differs by location and commodity type
• Alternative transport routes remain underdeveloped for most operations
• Emergency response protocols lack standardization across operators
The absence of confirmed reopening timelines for critical infrastructure demonstrates the reactive nature of current resilience planning. Queensland Rail's inability to provide recovery estimates after weeks of disruption indicates infrastructure management systems unprepared for extended weather events.
What Makes Australian Mining Operations Weather-Vulnerable?
Seasonal Risk Patterns in Resource Transportation
Australia's mining operations face predictable seasonal vulnerabilities that amplify during extreme weather events. The January 2026 disruptions illustrate how extended rainfall periods can cascade across multiple operators and commodities simultaneously, overwhelming regional infrastructure capacity.
Weather Event Impact Timeline (January 2026):
• Disruption onset: Prior to January 14, 2026
• Duration: Multiple weeks of continuous rainfall
• Geographic scope: Queensland's primary mining corridors
• Affected commodities: Copper concentrate, thermal coal, metallurgical coal, zinc, fertilizers
The seasonal concentration of weather risks creates predictable vulnerability windows. Queensland's monsoon season, typically spanning December through March, coincides with peak production periods for many mining operations. This temporal overlap between weather extremes and operational intensity magnifies disruption impacts.
Glencore's simultaneous disruptions across multiple assets demonstrate how weather events affect entire operational portfolios rather than isolated facilities. Disruptions at Hails Creek mine, Collinsville mine, and Clermont thermal coal mine occurred concurrently, overwhelming corporate logistics capacity and forcing extended supply chain delays.
Multi-asset vulnerability patterns include:
• Simultaneous operational impacts across geographically distributed mines
• Cascading logistics failures affecting copper and coal operations
• Transport network congestion during recovery periods
• Supply chain bottlenecks at processing and export facilities
The transportation infrastructure supporting Australian mining operations reveals fundamental design limitations when confronted with modern weather extremes. Rail lines constructed for historical climate patterns struggle with prolonged rainfall events, while port facilities face increasing storm surge risks and operational restrictions. Nevertheless, advances in haulage safety improvements across the sector demonstrate that proactive investment in resilient systems can yield significant operational benefits.
Infrastructure Design Limitations in Extreme Weather
Current infrastructure standards reflect historical weather patterns rather than contemporary climate realities. Rail line engineering specifications, designed for traditional seasonal variations, prove inadequate for extended weather events that now characterise Australian climate patterns.
Queensland Rail's extended closure of Mount Isa operations, lasting weeks without confirmed reopening timelines, exemplifies infrastructure design limitations. The inability to maintain operations or predict recovery timelines suggests engineering standards insufficient for current weather extremes.
Technical infrastructure limitations include:
• Drainage capacity inadequate for increased rainfall intensity
• Track bed design unsuitable for prolonged saturation
• Signal and communication systems vulnerable to weather exposure
• Maintenance protocols reactive rather than predictive
Port facility resilience varies significantly across Australia's mining export terminals. While specific technical specifications for storm hardening remain proprietary, operational evidence suggests differential capability across facilities. Ports handling coal exports demonstrate varied resilience profiles, with some maintaining operations while others implement extended restrictions.
Alternative transport route development remains limited across Australian mining corridors. The concentration of infrastructure investment in primary corridors creates vulnerability gaps when main networks fail. Road transport alternatives exist but lack capacity for bulk commodity movements, while pipeline infrastructure remains commodity-specific and geographically constrained.
Infrastructure redundancy analysis reveals:
• Limited backup transportation capacity during primary network failures
• Processing facility dependencies on specific transport modes
• Export terminal capacity constraints during disruption periods
• Communication network vulnerabilities affecting coordination
Which Companies Face the Greatest Weather-Related Risks?
Major Players' Operational Exposure Analysis
Australian mining companies demonstrate varying vulnerability profiles based on geographic concentration, infrastructure dependencies, and operational diversification strategies. Recent weather disruptions reveal stark differences in resilience capabilities across major operators.
Weather Vulnerability Assessment Matrix:
Glencore's exposure across multiple asset classes demonstrates how diversified portfolios can amplify weather vulnerability rather than provide protection. The company's inability to transport copper concentrate from Mount Isa operations for multiple consecutive days illustrates critical supply chain dependencies that affect global smelting operations.
BHP's operational continuity during the January 2026 weather events reflects superior contingency planning and potentially more diversified logistics arrangements. The company's documented wet weather contingency plans enabled continued operations while competitors declared force majeure, suggesting different approaches to weather resilience investment.
https://discoveryalert.com.au/australia-critical-minerals-logistics-climate-2026/
EDITED BY : NILANJANA BANERJEE
The 2025 S&P 500 concluded with an estimated gain of +17 per cent. Apart from precious metals like gold with a gain of +70 per cent and silver with +169 per cent, aluminium gained a significant +38 per cent. Between April and the end of 2025, aluminium added +842 points.
China at the heart of the aluminium market
China, being the world’s largest producer of aluminium and a manufacturing hub, exports to leading global retail outlets like Walmart, Target, Boots, etc., accounting for approximately 30 per cent of global goods output. Subsequently, its policy choices largely influence the aluminium industry.
To counter deflationary pressure and rein in industrial overcapacity, China made an independent decision to cap aluminium production at 45 million tonnes. The domestic smelters, unable to increase their output capacity, moved to halt expansion plans. The action coincided with the recent US reciprocal tariffs, catalysing a chain reaction.
As exports continued to be less economical, producers redirected inventory into the domestic Chinese market, resulting in a 10 per cent decline in aluminium exports. While China exported 4.7 million tonnes as of YTD October 2023, it increased by an estimated 17.02 per cent with 5.5 million tonnes export in YTD October 2024. On the other hand, several factors emerging in 2025 collectively led to a decline in the record of YTD October 2025, with an export of 5 million tonnes. Chinese firms anticipated an eventual resolution of US trade disputes and planned to build smelting capacity in Indonesia.
The unexpected rise in costs and regulatory obstacles in Indonesia postponed the production plan. Meanwhile, geopolitical frictions and raw material sourcing hurdles from Australia, Iceland, and Mozambique curtailed output at the respective Chinese smelters, further tightening global supply.
In this scenario, major diversified miners indirectly benefited from aluminium’s ascent.
Melbourne-based BHP Group is the largest global mining company. Although focused mainly on coal, copper, iron ore, and nickel, its bauxite production gives it strategic relevance. As BHP had sold off its alumina operations, its bauxite mining activities and refining that into alumina are carried out through the Worsley Alumina joint venture.
Though aluminium does not fetch its primary revenue, the segment solidifies BHP’s standing in the metals industry. Its shares exceeded 50 per cent between April and December 2025.
The second largest miner in the world, Rio Tinto, plays a more direct role. Aluminium contributes to an estimated quarter of its revenues, supported by an integrated network of bauxite mining, alumina refining, smelting and recycling. RenewAI, the first low-carbon aluminium brand of Rio Tinto, and the START sustainability label emphasise the company’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improve supply-chain transparency.
With backing from Canadian and Quebec authorities, Rio Tinto collaborated with Alcoa and Apple to advance a zero GHG emission smelting technology. Spread out across 11 aluminium operations, the company’s projected Q4 2025 output was in the range of 3.25 to 3.45 million tonnes.
Aluminium Corporation of China (CHALCO), the state-owned listed arm in Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges with ADRs trading in the US, reflects China’s dominance in the aluminium industry. Covering the entire value chain, CHALCO’s operations span across bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminium smelting, copper assets and overseas investments. These include projects in Guinea and Peru.
Despite changes in China’s aluminium industry, CHALCO’s scale helps it thrive as a central player. It is expected to report the aluminium output around 8 million tonnes for 2025, while its ADRs have delivered exceptional returns, i.e., 1-year returns of 229.2 per cent, 3-year returns of 351.44 per cent, and 5-year returns of 405.61 per cent.
By contrast, the Pittsburgh-based Aluminum Company of America or Alcoa, represents the historical cornerstone of the industry. Founded in 1888 by Charles Martin Hall, who made aluminium commercially viable with his bauxite smelting invention, the company has supplied critical industries ranging from aviation to defence over a long period.
In 2016, after regulatory disputes with the EPA and various M&A, Alcoa spun off its downstream aluminium fabrication arm as Arconic, retaining its core mining and refining operations. For 2025, Alcoa’s aluminium production was projected in the range of 2.3 to 2.5 million tonnes, with its shares advancing nearly 82.87 per cent from April through year-end.
While the US tariff policies and other geopolitical factors are somewhat responsible for this outcome, mining and processing factors have also contributed to the aluminium value surge, indicating a possibility of continuation for the current price trajectory.
[SMM Sheets & Plates Daily Review] Prices Fluctuated Rangebound Today, Market Trading Performance Was Average
Ferrous metals were in the doldrums today, with the most-traded hot-rolled coil contract closing at 3,306, down 0.09%. In the spot market, average prices for cold-rolled and hot-rolled coils remained stable WoW, while trading performance was average. Data-wise: Ningbo's large-sample hot-rolled coil inventory this week stood at 326,500 mt, up 2.9% WoW. Lecong's hot-rolled coil inventory this week was 737,200 mt, down 4.69% WoW. Shanghai's hot-rolled coil inventory this week was 361,000 mt, down 4.62% WoW. Shenyang's hot-rolled coil inventory this week was 88,000 mt, up 6.54% WoW. Inventories in major cities showed mixed changes this week.
Recently, the impact from maintenance at steel mills decreased, and hot-rolled coil production is expected to increase significantly this week, with supply pressure gradually rising. Demand side, approaching year-end, further room for downstream demand release is limited. In the short term, the most-traded hot-rolled coil contract lacks upward or downward momentum and is expected to move sideways within the 3,260-3,350 range. If there are no more positive news stimuli in the middle to late ten-day period, prices may have further room to weaken.
Posted on 14 Jan 2026
China's construction steel demand is likely to decline further this month as winter continues to impact building projects, according to the findings of Mysteel's latest monthly survey.
The prediction is based on the actual volumes of construction steel products bought by domestic end-users in December and their purchase plans for these products this month.
Mysteel's regular tracking of over 200 domestic construction enterprises showed that their total procurement volume of steel products came in at 5.85 million tonnes in December, slipping by 2.2% from November.
This month, the building contractors plan to purchase 4.98 million tonnes of steel products, sliding by 14.9% compared with their actual purchases in December, the survey results showed.
China's steel demand usually slows during the winter season, as outdoor construction is frequently hampered by the low temperatures in most regions, as reported.
Meanwhile, construction activity also decelerates in the leadup to the Chinese New Year holiday which this year will start from mid-February.
Many domestic building contractors are facing pressure from tight cash flow, which may also suppress domestic steel demand, according to the release.
Transactions involving construction steel in the physical market remained weak overall, with the daily trading volume of rebar, wire rod and bar-in-coil among the 237 trading houses nationwide under Mysteel's tracking averaging 96,947 tonnes/day during January 1-12, down by 922 t/d from the average for December.
However, demand from end-users in southern China is still resilient, and ferrous futures prices remain strong, driving up domestic steel prices for spot sales, Mysteel Global noted.
On January 12, Mysteel assessed the national price of HRB400E 20mm dia rebar at Yuan 3,342/tonne ($479/t) including the 13% VAT, rising by Yuan 18/t from the end of December.
On the same day, the most-traded rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange for May delivery closed the daytime trading session at Yuan 3,165/t, higher by Yuan 52/t from the settlement price on January 5, according to the exchange's data.
Source:Mysteel Global
Imports fell by 11% last year
China increased its steel exports by 7.5% year-on-year in 2025 to a record 119.02 million tons, according to the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), citing customs data.
In December, Chinese metallurgists exported 11.3 million tons of steel, which is 13.2% more than in the previous month. The average price of these exports was 679.7/ton (-2.3% month-on-month).
Steel imports to the country in January-December 2025 amounted to 6.06 million tons, down 11.1% year-on-year. In December, the figure was 517 thousand tons (+4.2% month-on-month). The average price of these imports was $1,810.3/t (+11% month-on-month).
At the same time, China increased its ore imports by 1.8% year-on-year last year to 1.26 billion tons. These volumes have been growing for the third year in a row. In December, the figure was 119.64 million tons, which is 8.2% more than in the previous month, with an average price of $101.2/ton, almost unchanged from November.
Steel exports have helped offset cooling domestic demand, Bloomberg notes, as the country’s real estate crisis continues to weigh on the market. It remains to be seen whether Beijing’s latest efforts in the form of a new export licensing regime for steel will curb the growth of overseas shipments, or whether this decision will remain merely an administrative change.
In particular, as noted by SDIC Futures Co. analyst He Jianhui, this is still a seesaw effect – exports in December were stimulated by seasonal weakness in the domestic market. In addition, the rush by metallurgists to make deliveries before the start of the new licensing system contributed to the increase in volumes.
However, the expert expects that the impact of the new scheme will be limited, as foreign buyers are likely to cover the costs, given the already low domestic prices.
As a reminder, China is introducing export licenses for a wide range of steel products from 2026. Cast iron, semi-finished products, flat and long rolled products, as well as pipes and rail products will be subject to control.
https://gmk.center/en/news/china-increased-steel-exports-by-7-5-y-y-in-2025/
"In 2025, seaborne coal shipments to China fell 10% as domestics supply increased and demand from steel manufacturing and electricity generation weakened. The decline affected shipments out of Indonesia, the US, Australia and Colombia in particular,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
China is the world’s largest importer of coal and the destination of 28% of seaborne coal shipments, which account for 4% of dry bulk tonne mile demand. Thermal coal, which is used for electricity generation, accounts for 87% of seaborne coal shipments to China while the remaining 13% is coking coal used in the production of new steel.
In 2025, 90% of seaborne shipments came from Indonesia, Australia and Russia. Indonesia primarily supplies thermal coal while Australia and Russia supply a mix of thermal and coking coal. China also imports significant volumes of coal via land routes from Mongolia and Russia.
“The drop in coal shipments to China negatively impacted the dry bulk market as tonne miles for coal heading to China decreased 21%. On top of the weaker cargo volumes, average sailing distances shortened as shipments from the US and Colombia fell 70% and 80% respectively. These cargoes faced stiff price competition from Asian suppliers while an increase in tariffs on US coal further discouraged purchasing,” says Gouveia.
The capesize and supramax segments were most impacted by weaker coal shipments into China, as their coal tonne mile demand fell 44% and 19% respectively. Both segments faced tough competition from the panamax segment, while capesize tonne miles were especially impacted by weaker shipments of Colombian coal. Coal volumes on panamax ships only declined 1% but the tonne miles fell 8% due to weaker shipments out of the US.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects Chinese coal demand to fall 1% between 2025 and 2027, affecting both thermal and coking coal. The agency estimates that China’s installed renewable energy capacity will nearly triple between 2025 and 2030, which would meet or even surpass the country’s growing electricity demand. Furthermore, the World Steel Association forecasts Chinese steel demand to fall 1% in 2026, while the Chinese government is aiming to reduce steel production to tackle the sector’s overcapacity.
Total Chinese coal supply is forecast by the IEA to fall faster than demand due to oversupply in 2025 which has pressured prices and boosted inventories. Between 2025 and 2027, the agency estimates a 4% reduction in Chinese production, the first decline since 2016.
“The IEA forecasts that total Chinese coal imports will drop 8% amid stable overland imports of Mongolian coal, implying 10% lower seaborne coal shipments to China in 2027 compared with 2025. The severeness of the decline will ultimately hinge on how much China’s government will rein in domestic mining,” says Gouveia.
https://www.marinelink.com/news/chinas-coal-imports-slump-534385
