For years, analysts modeling the global copper market were comforted by the expectation of a reliable buffer of surplus supply. But as our latest data visualization reveals, market balance forecasts show a sharp shift from a projected surplus to a deficit in 2026. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has officially abandoned its projected surplus for 2025, now forecasting a 150,000-metric-ton deficit for 2026—pointing to the market's first structural shortage since 2009. Wall Street is bracing for an even harsher reality. J.P. Morgan's models push the anticipated shortfall to a staggering 330,000 metric tons. Driven by an unprecedented surge in hyperscale AI infrastructure and cascading mine closures, this massive shift in the outlook from green to red has already pushed current prices to historic highs, signaling that the era of abundant copper may be definitively over.
J.P. Morgan’s Deep Deficit
The deepest bar on the chart, the 330,000 MT deficit, belongs to J.P. Morgan's forward models. This steep drop is largely tied to a sudden change in global computing infrastructure.
J.P. Morgan estimates data centers will siphon approximately 475,000 metric tons of copper in 2026. The Copper Development Association notes that new hyperscale AI facilities—housing advanced, power-dense systems like Nvidia's HGX, require up to 50,000 tons each. This highly concentrated, novel source of demand is dragging the global balance sheet deep into the negative.
The Supply-Side Collapse
A structural deficit requires both rising demand and failing supply. The red and orange bars on our chart are essentially locked into place by ongoing operational failures across the global mining sector.
Compounding this projected deficit, the Grasberg Block Cave remains shuttered under force majeure until Q2 2026, removing critical tonnage from the market. Furthermore, Anglo American's recent Q4 2025 downgrade for its Chile operations (dropping guidance to 390,000–420,000 tonnes) underscores just how problematic replacing lost production has become. This operational reality persists even as Cochilco reports a seemingly stable overall baseline of ~5.5 million tonnes from Chile in 2024–2025, proving that top-line stability can mask underlying supply fragility.
Final Synthesis
While a 150k to 330k MT deficit represents only ~0.5% to 1.1% of a 28.7 million ton global market, commodity pricing is ruthlessly dictated by the margins. In physical markets with inelastic demand, the "marginal ton" of supply determines the price for the entire market; therefore, even a minor structural deficit typically triggers a disproportionate surge in spot prices to balance the books.
https://www.miningvisuals.com/post/copper-market-balance-a-look-at-2026-deficit-forecasts
President Donald Trump has reportedly sent Iran a 15-point peace plan — addressing ballistic missiles, nuclear programs, and maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite a CNBC report on Wednesday that Tehran “does not accept a ceasefire,” markets remain focused on the potential for renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy, with war-battered names staging a sharp premarket rebound on Wednesday
Prediction markets are also moving.
The probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by April 30 now sits at 48% on Polymarket — a coin flip that, just a week ago, would have seemed optimistic.
For 10 Russell 1000 names down between 17% and 33% since the war began, that coin flip is everything.
What The 15-Point Plan Signals
Several diplomatic developments converged on Tuesday to shift the market’s calculus toward a negotiated resolution. Beyond the 15-point framework, U.S. and regional mediators have reportedly discussed holding high-level peace talks as soon as Thursday, though Iran has yet to confirm.
President Trump said at a White House ceremony that “this war has been won” and “I think we’re going to end it.”
The counterweights remain real. Iran and Israel reportedly continued strikes through Tuesday.
The U.S. is planning to deploy approximately 3,000 additional airborne troops. Several Gulf states are reportedly edging toward joining operations against Iran.
Hormuz oil flows remain near a standstill — down 95% versus normal on a four-day moving average, with the hit to Persian Gulf oil exports at 15.5 million barrels per day, partially offset by a pickup in pipeline and port redirection of 3.8 million barrels per day.
Brent and WTI held below $100 and $90, respectively, following Monday’s crude selloff — a market beginning, cautiously, to price in a resolution.
The Market Read
A ceasefire would not immediately reverse all of these moves — gold’s relationship with energy costs would normalize gradually, and airline fuel hedges take time to roll off.
But the directional trade is clear: any credible peace signal could trigger violent short-covering across this basket.
Trump’s 15-point plan may or may not end the war. What it has already done is put a floor under the stocks most desperate for peace.
Two stray Ukrainian military drones entered the airspace of Estonia and Latvia on Wednesday morning via Russia, one of which slammed into a chimney at a local power station while the other crash landed, the two Baltic countries said.
The drones that hit the NATO member nations were believed to be part of a wider Ukrainian attack on Russia, Latvian and Estonian authorities said. They follow another stray Ukrainian drone that Lithuania said on Monday had crashed into a lake.
The drones landed in Estonia and Latvia at around the time that Russian officials said a Ukrainian drone attack set fire to oil facilities at Russia's Baltic Sea ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, major export hubs located near Estonia and Finland.
Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and export routes over recent weeks in an attempt to weaken Russia's war economy, and as peace talks, brokered by Washington, have stalled.
There were no reports of injuries or damage from the drone hit to Estonia's Auvere power station, located just 2 km from the Russian border, the Estonian government said.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna speaks during an interview with Reuters, at the Estonian embassy, in Beijing, China November 5, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/TINGSHU WANG)
"The drone was not directed at Estonia. This is a concrete consequence of Russia's full-scale war of aggression," Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a post on X.
Estonia, Latvia report drone incursions amid Ukraine strike on Russian port
Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics told reporters that the drone, which crashed in Latvia, was Ukrainian and part of an attack on Russian targets, public broadcaster LSM reported.
A third drone briefly entered Latvian airspace via Belarus before flying into Russia, Latvian authorities said.
Lithuania's prime minister earlier this week said a military drone that crashed into a lake in Lithuania also came from Ukraine and was aimed at attacking Russia's oil exports before going astray.
"The war, provoked by the aggressor Russia, has gotten us to this point, with drones falling on the territories of all three Baltic states within 48 hours," Lithuania's Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas said in a statement on Wednesday.
https://www.jpost.com/international/internationalrussia-ukraine-war/article-891154
India has bought its first cargo of Iranian liquefied petroleum gas in years after the U.S. temporarily removed sanctions on Tehran’s oil and refined fuels, LSG trade flows and three industry sources said.
India had shunned energy purchases from Iran in 2019 under pressure from Western sanctions. The tanker was initially bound for China, according to LSEG data.
Sanctioned tanker Aurora carrying Iranian LPG is expected to shortly reach the west coast port of Mangalore, the sources said and LSEG data showed.
The South Asian nation has been hit hard by the disruption of energy shipments via the Strait of Hormuz caused by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Three retailers to share LPG cargo
The Iranian LPG cargo will be shared among the three fuel retailers, Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp , and Hindustan Petroleum Corp.
The cargo has been purchased from a trader, and payment will be made in rupees, the sources said, adding India is exploring buying more Iranian LPG cargoes.
Still, an official said he was not aware of Iranian cargoes being bought.
“[There are] no loaded cargoes from Iran, we have not heard of that,” said Rajesh Kumar Sinha, special secretary in the federal shipping ministry said Wednesday at a press conference.
The three companies and India’s oil ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comments.
Most of imported LPG from West Asia
The world’s second-largest LPG importer is battling its worst gas crisis in decades with the government cutting supplies for industries to shield households from any shortage of cooking gas.
India consumed 33.15 million metric tons of LPG, or cooking gas, last year, with imports accounting for about 60% of demand. About 90% of those imports came from West Asia.
India is gradually moving out its stranded LPG cargoes from the Strait of Hormuz, with four LPG tankers moved so far--Shivalik, Nanda Devi, Pine Gas, and Jag Vasant.
India is also loading LPG onto its empty vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf.
Russia’s daily revenue from the sale of its oil abroad has doubled since January, jumping from an average of $135 million to $270 million and bringing Russian oil revenues to their highest level since March 2022, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
The rise in revenues has been driven by both increased oil shipment volumes from Russian ports, as well as the massive increase in prices for Russian oil grades amid disruptions to global energy supplies as a result of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.
Bloomberg said Russia was also benefiting from a sanctions waiver issued by the US Treasury two weeks ago, which has seen the country’s flagship Urals crude command a premium over North Sea Brent in the Indian market for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russian business daily Kommersant reported on Wednesday that ESPO, a premium Russian export grade drilled in Russia’s Far East, was trading at over $100 per barrel for the first time in at least 10 years. The primary customer for ESPO crude is China, which has also increased its consumption of Russian oil after disruptions in supplies from the Gulf.
“If these prices are maintained at least until June, the [Russian] budget will be balanced as approved last year, perhaps even better than planned”, economist Vladislav Inozemtsev told independent news outlet The Insider on Wednesday.
“The rise in oil prices will be followed by a fall in the ruble’s exchange rate”, Inozemtsev continued. “Revenues will be higher, but they will be channelled into closing the deficit, and not into any significant improvement in the economy.”
The news comes a day after the Kremlin confirmed it was reconsidering a planned tightening of its fiscal rules, delaying a planned lowering of the “cut-off price” of Russian oil until next year, as Russia’s budget calculations continue to benefit from the attacks on Russia’s strategic partner Iran.
By Irina Slav - Mar 26, 2026, 1:54 AM CDT
Venezuela produced an average of 1.1 million barrels of crude daily this month, up from 942,000 barrels daily in February, according to a PDVSA presentation, as cited by Reuters.
The turnaround followed the selective lifting of sanctions by the United States after it removed President Nicolas Maduro from power and took him to the U.S. to stand trial for drug trafficking, while effectively taking over Venezuela’s oil industry.
The turnaround will take a while, however. In the 1990s, Venezuela pumped around 3 million barrels of crude daily, but since then, the combination of bad management and U.S. sanctions has significantly reduced its production.
After the U.S. took control, however, things seem to be looking up, with Big Oil starting to return to the Latin American country, not least thanks to a legislative change giving oil companies more freedom and predictability.
The new law, passed earlier this year, caps royalty rates at 30% but allows the government to set individual royalty rates for projects based on factors such as investment needs and competitiveness. Following the adoption of the new law, Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodriguez said she expected fresh oil investments of as much as $1.4 billion this year.
The law also stipulates that private companies “will assume full management of the activities at its own expense, account, and risk, after demonstrating its financial and technical capacity through a business plan” that will be subject to approval by the Venezuelan oil ministry. The ownership of the resources to be developed by private companies, however, will remain with the Venezuelan state.
As a result, Chevron is reportedly in talks to expand its Petropiar joint venture with PDVSA, and Shell is in talks for the development of fields in eastern Venezuela, in the Monagas North area. The area contains some of Venezuela’s few deposits of light and medium crude. Shell also has plans for developing natural gas resources in Venezuela, both offshore and onshore.
UK forces will be able to board and detain sanctioned vessels transiting British waters under new measures aimed at disrupting Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, the government stated.
The decision allows Royal Navy personnel and law enforcement officers to interdict ships that have been sanctioned by the UK, including those moving through key routes such as the English Channel. It follows recent activity in which UK assets have supported allies in tracking vessels linked to the network in European and Mediterranean waters.
The policy forms part of a wider effort with Joint Expeditionary Force partners, several of whom have already taken action against suspected vessels in the Baltic. By expanding interdiction to UK waters, ministers are seeking to restrict access to major maritime routes and increase operational pressure on operators linked to the fleet.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “We are living in an increasingly volatile and dangerous world, facing threats from different fronts across the world every day. As Prime Minister, my first duty is to keep this country safe and protect British interests here and abroad. Putin is rubbing his hands at the war in the Middle East because he thinks higher oil prices will let him line his pockets. That’s why we’re going after his shadow fleet even harder, not just keeping Britain safe but starving Putin’s war machine of the dirty profits that fund his barbaric campaign in Ukraine. He and his cronies should be in no doubt, we will always defend our sovereignty and stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
Operational planning has included preparations for boarding non-compliant or potentially hostile vessels, with military and law enforcement teams exercising against a range of scenarios in recent weeks. Each potential interdiction will be assessed on a case-by-case basis before ministers authorise action, with the possibility of criminal proceedings against those found in breach of UK sanctions.
Alongside allies, the UK has already sanctioned hundreds of vessels linked to the network, with further coordination expected as partners seek to tighten enforcement measures across northern European waters.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-to-board-russian-shadow-fleet-vessels/
Koforidua, March 25, GNA – Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. has announced its 2025 financial results, recording revenue of US$ 49.7 billion and net profit of US$ 7.4 billion.
Also, the company’s social contributions rose to US $ 16 billion, reflecting strong growth and expansion.
The report was contained in an official statement posted on the company’s website on Wednesday.
The report highlighted that gold output reached 90 tonnes, representing a 23 percent increase, driven largely by acquisitions of the Akyem Gold Mine in Ghana and the Raygorodok Gold Mine in Kazakhstan.
Copper production stood at 1.09 million tonnes, maintaining growth from a high base, while lithium projects in China, Argentina, and Hunan delivered 25,500 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, marking a transition to large-scale production.
For 2026, Zijin projects 105 tonnes of gold, 1.2 million tonnes of copper, 120,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, and 520 tonnes of silver.
By 2028, the company aims to rank among the world’s top three producers of copper and gold, and by 2035, to become a global leader in lithium and molybdenum.
The statement noted that expansion projects in Serbia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Suriname, and Colombia are ramping up output.
Renewable energy use reached 6.34 billion kilowatt hours in 2025, accounting for 54.4 percent of total power consumption. Community engagement included 1,021 meetings and 16,786 stakeholder visits, supporting local industries ranging from eco-agriculture in China to coffee and beekeeping in Colombia.
Zijin’s market performance was equally strong.
Its A-share and H-share prices rose 128 percent and 152 percent year-on-year, respectively, with market capitalization surpassing RMB 1 trillion in early 2026.
This placed the company among the world’s top three listed metals miners. Dividend payouts totaled RMB 16 billion, representing a 58 percent increase.
The acquisition of Ghana’s Akyem Gold Mine underscores Zijin’s growing footprint in the country’s mining sector, positioning Ghana as a key contributor to its global gold expansion strategy.
This development strengthens Ghana’s role in international mining supply chains and highlights the country’s importance in the global minerals market.
The statement further stated that Zijin remained committed to sustainable growth, community development, and shareholder value, while pursuing its ambition to become a leading global mining enterprise.
GNA
Edited by D. I. Laary/Benjamin Mensah
https://gna.org.gh/2026/03/zijin-posts-7-4b-profit-expands-global-output/
The smelter is connected by conveyor belt to the Queensland Alumina refinery for alumina supplies. Credit: DSimanungkalit/Shutterstock.com.
Rio Tinto, along with the Queensland and Commonwealth governments, has committed to establishing a long-term plan for the Boyne aluminium smelter in Gladstone with an investment of A$2bn ($1.4bn) over the next decade.
This collaboration aims to maintain the smelter’s international cost-competitiveness beyond its existing power contract.
The initiative is part of the federal government’s Future Made in Australia programme and aims to maintain the smelter’s competitiveness on a global level.
This pledge finalises an earlier agreement between Queensland and Rio Tinto supporting a transition to sustainable power solutions for the smelter and securing manufacturing jobs in central Queensland.
Rio Tinto has previously signed power purchase agreements to support the development of A$7.5bn worth of renewable energy and storage projects in Queensland.
The new deal will ensure that Boyne Smelters (BSL), the smelter owner, continues its production activities beyond 2029 when its current power contract concludes, extending operations to at least 2040.
BSL, operating since 1982 on Boyne Island, is Australia’s second-largest aluminium smelter.
It engages in manufacturing carbon anodes, aluminium production and casting molten metal into products ready for shipment.
The smelter is connected by conveyor belt to the Queensland Alumina refinery for alumina supplies.
Ownership of BSL is divided between Rio Tinto (73.5%), YKK Aluminium (9.5%), UACJ (9.29%) and Southern Cross Aluminium (7.71%).
Rio Tinto Aluminium & Lithium chief executive Jérôme Pécresse said: “This transformative partnership with the Queensland and Australian governments will ensure Boyne Smelter remains internationally competitive, strengthens the Australian aluminium sector for the future and supports the transformation and decarbonisation of the Queensland energy system.
“As fossil fuels become increasingly expensive, this investment, combined with the power purchase agreements we have already signed, positions Boyne to be among the world’s first aluminium smelters underpinned by solar and wind power.”
Earlier this month, Rio Tinto obtained a financing package totalling $1.17bn (£872.27m) to advance the Rincon lithium project in Salta Province, Argentina.
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/rio-tinto-partners-governments-boyne-smelter/
The increase in imports is due, in particular, to a shortage of high-quality raw materials within the country
Iron ore imports to India are set to rise to a seven-year high in the 2025/2026 fiscal year (ending March 31) due to a domestic shortage of high-quality raw materials and demand from JSW Steel, according to Reuters.
As analysts and industry executives note, total iron ore imports for the period are likely to reach 12–14 million tons, more than double the figure for the previous fiscal year.
According to Lalit Ladkat, a senior analyst at the London-based consulting firm CRU, JSW Steel was the key driver of imports of this raw material for its plants in the states of Maharashtra and Karnataka. According to him, the bulk of imported iron ore in the current fiscal year came from Brazil and Oman — together, they accounted for about 70% of total imports.
Meanwhile, according to BigMint, iron ore production in India is expected to reach 305 million tons in the 2025/2026 fiscal year, compared to 289 million tons the previous year. Exports will rise by 26% year-on-year – to 29 million tons, with 85% of shipments going to China, says Ladkat.
According to representatives of the mining industry, India exports mainly low-grade iron ore, which is not typically used by the country’s steel mills. In the 2026/2027 fiscal year, which begins on April 1, production of this raw material is expected to rise as Indian mines ramp up output. However, imports may continue depending on quality requirements and supply dynamics at the plant level, explains Sumit Jundjunwala, vice president of ICRA Ratings.
However, according to analysts, India, which has been importing cheaper iron ore pellets from Iran since last year, is likely to face a reduction in these supplies due to the conflict in the Middle East. From April to February, the country imported a total of 1.88 million tons of pellets, which is six times more on an annualized basis.
It is worth noting that in 2025, India increased its imports of coking coal by 9.8% year-on-year – to 62.6 million tons, with an additional 21 million tons of pulverized coal (PCI coal). This is according to data from BigMint. Foreign supplies increased amid rising steel production in the country and a general global decline.
LONDON, March 25, 2026, 11:44 GMT
Anglo American shares climbed to 3,171 pence by 11:43 GMT on Wednesday from Tuesday’s 3,054 pence close, as mining stocks led gains in London. The FTSE 100 rose 1.1% and the miners index was up 3.4%.
The move matters because Anglo is trying to complete a stock-for-stock merger with Teck Resources that would create the world’s fifth-largest copper producer. Copper, used widely in power and transport systems, sits at the centre of mining dealmaking, and Reuters has reported that rivals BHP and Rio Tinto have also been trying to add more of the metal.
Wednesday’s lift came as oil prices fell about 5% on reports that Washington had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at securing a month-long ceasefire. Cheaper oil eased some inflation fears, helping gold and other metal-linked shares recover after recent losses.
Peter Fertig, an analyst at Quantitative Commodity Research, said money markets suggested “the market is expecting that there isn’t a hike of central bank interest rates.” That shift has mattered for mining shares because fears of higher rates were part of the recent pressure on metals.
Anglo also gave investors a fresh corporate update this week. The company said on Monday it will delist from the SIX Swiss Exchange on June 26, ahead of completing the Teck deal, while keeping London as its primary listing and planning secondary listings in Johannesburg, Toronto and New York after the merger, subject to approvals.
The timetable is still in view. Anglo’s Brazil CEO Ana Sanches said last week the miner expected final regulatory approval “around the year-end,” bringing the focus back to execution.
Copper remains the bigger draw. Freeport-McMoRan CEO Kathleen Quirk told Reuters this week that “the things that are driving copper demand are more secular in nature,” or longer-lasting, even after the Iran conflict shook markets. That view has helped keep investors focused on copper names despite the recent swings in commodities.
Anglo is still carrying operational baggage. In February it cut 2026 copper guidance to 700,000-760,000 tons from 760,000-820,000, citing lower output at Collahuasi in Chile, even as it pressed ahead with plans to sell or separate De Beers, steelmaking coal and nickel to sharpen its focus on copper and iron ore.
But the rally is not clean. Tehran has denied negotiations with Washington, so another swing higher in oil could quickly revive inflation worries; Anglo is also carrying lower copper guidance and a weak diamond market after a $2.3 billion write-down at De Beers helped push it to a $3.7 billion loss in February.
