Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Thursday 23 April 2026
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Featured

Commodity Intelligence Alpha Series: CATL’s Tech Day and the "Huawei" Bet on LG Chem

What’s going on here?

Chinese firm CATL just unveiled a new series of next-generation EV batteries with longer range and faster charging.

What does this mean?

The world’s biggest battery maker said its new “Qilin” model can power a car for up to 1,500 kilometers on a single charge. That’s about 930 miles, or a drive from New York to Florida. What’s more, the latest version of its “Shenxing” battery can go from 10% to 98% in just six-and-a-half minutes – very close to the time it’d take to fill your tank the old-fashioned way.

If you combine CATL’s market share with that of its domestic rival BYD, you’re looking at more than half of the global EV battery market.

Both firms are spending heavily to further improve their tech – so the race is on to see how far they go and how fast they recharge.

Why should I care?

For you personally: In the market for a new car?

CATL’s new batteries knock out two of the biggest gripes about EVs: range and charging time. At the same time, the energy shock from the war in the Middle East is pushing up the cost of running gasoline and diesel cars. That all makes EVs more attractive, despite their heftier price tags – meaning that more drivers might make the switch from pump to plug.

Zooming out: Lessons in chemistry.

Now, these next-gen CATL batteries still rely on lithium, along with cobalt and nickel. But those critical metals have been in short supply for years – and their prices are notoriously volatile. So the firm’s been working on an alternative: sodium-ion batteries, which it’s planning to mass-produce by the end of the year. Those don’t boast nearly the same range as lithium ones, mind you, but sodium is much cheaper and more widely available.

 If sodium-ion batteries win even a modest slice of future demand, that could take some heat out of lithium prices – good news for EV makers and for consumers, but not so much for miners who’ve been benefiting from the boom.


https://finimize.com/content/catls-new-batteries-could-crack-the-ev-range-and-charge-roadblocks?email-id=0d34f5b668376d5d9501b5a3fd2272d7944e9c3c43366a9d3b104ce9dffafa&name=James&utm_campaign=&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Daily+Newsletter+-+Primary

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Macro

European Stocks Fall as Germany Halves Growth Forecast, Citing Iran War

Frankfurt am Main.

LONDON — European stocks closed lower on Wednesday as traders assessed the Iran ceasefire extension, economic updates and a flurry of corporate earnings.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 finished the day down by 0.4%, paring gains seen earlier in the session. Sectors and major regional bourses traded in broadly negative territory.

German officials halved their economic growth forecasts for 2026, saying they now expected their domestic economy to grow by 0.5% this year. For 2027, the gross domestic product forecast was trimmed from 1.3% to 0.9%.

Citing the conflict in the Middle East and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Germany's Economics Ministry said the country had seen costs for households and businesses rise. Against this backdrop, officials projected that the inflation rate will be 2.7% this year and 2.8% next year.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday extended the two-week U.S. ceasefire with Iran, saying the extension was warranted due to Tehran's government being "seriously fractured."

Trump said the ceasefire, which he earlier had said would end on Wednesday, would continue "until such time as" Iran's leaders and representatives submit a "unified proposal" to end the war with the U.S. and Israel.

The President's announcement came after reports that an expected trip by Vice President JD Vance to Pakistan for a second round of peace talks with Iranian officials had been put on hold.

Iranian state news outlet Tasnim also reported that negotiators from Tehran had informed their U.S. counterparts through an intermediary in Pakistan that they would not appear for further talks.

An Iranian diplomat later told the AP news agency that Tehran will not "negotiate under threat." He said the U.S. must end its blockade as a prerequisite for any further talks.

The diplomat told AP on Wednesday that the US must end its blockade on Iran as prerequisite for any further ceasefire talks in Islamabad. He also accused the U.S of using the ceasefire to build up more forces for possible resumption of military actions against the Islamic Republic.

Market sentiment was kept in check by Trump's refusal to lift the ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, with oil prices oscillating as investors tried to assess the situation.

He said in a Truth Social post: "They only say they want [the Strait of Hormuz] closed because I have it totally BLOCKADED (CLOSED!), so they merely want to 'save face.'"

Trump added that lifting the blockade would mean "there can never be a Deal with Iran, unless we blow up the rest of their Country, their leaders included."


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/european-markets-stoxx-600-ftse-dax-iran-latest-news-oil-price.html

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Clearing Mines in Strait of Hormuz Could Take Six Months - Report

A Pentagon assessment has estimated it could take six months to completely clear the strait of Hormuz of mines deployed by the Iranian army, the Washington Post reported.

Carrying out the task would unlikely begin until after the war ends, according to the Pentagon assessment, shared in a classified briefing for members of the House armed services committee earlier this week.

A cargo ship at sea.

A cargo ship sails in the Gulf towards the strait of Hormuz. Photograph: AP

Speaking to the Washington Post about that assessment, three officials close to the discussion said the six-month estimate frustrated both Democratic and Republican lawmakers. They were reportedly told that Iran may have placed 20 or more mines in and around the strait, with some floated remotely using GPS technology which makes them more difficult to detect.

The narrow waterway, which carried a fifth of global oil and gas supplies before the war, has been effectively shut since the start of the conflict on 28 February despite a ceasefire largely halting the fighting between the US, Israel and Iran.

Commenting on the Washington Post’s report, Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell acknowledged the assessment was made in a classified briefing and described the information as “inaccurate”.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/apr/23/middle-east-crisis-live-news-us-iran-ceasefire-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-ships-latest-updates

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Oil and Gas

Azerbaijan Offers LNG Gas to Pakistan Amid Shortage

Azerbaijan LNG Pakistan, azerbaijan pakistan, pakistan lng, lng price in pakistan

The government of Azerbaijan has offered to supply Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) to Pakistan.

The State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) has said it is ready to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Pakistan, as the country looks for additional fuel to manage a growing energy shortfall.

In comments to Reuters, the company said it could provide cargoes as soon as it receives a formal request from Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL).

The offer comes under a framework agreement signed in 2025 between SOCAR Trading and PLL, which allows LNG purchases through a faster process.

The company did not confirm whether a request had already been made or when deliveries could begin. It also did not specify the source of the LNG that would be supplied.

Pakistan relies heavily on imported gas, but its supplies have come under pressure in recent weeks.

Officials say shipments have been disrupted by tensions in the region and uncertainty in global markets.

A day earlier, authorities in the Petroleum Division said four LNG cargoes from Qatar Energy had been halted after Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway is a key route for global energy supplies.

Pakistan State Oil (PSO), which was handling the shipments under agreements with Qatar Energy, told officials that the cargoes would remain on hold until the situation stabilises.

Pakistan had earlier asked Qatar to release some of the LNG already loaded on vessels stranded in the region. However, the renewed closure of the strait has delayed those plans.

Energy supplies have also been affected by a force majeure declared by Qatar Energy following an earlier attack on one of its LNG facilities.

Since then, Pakistan has faced reduced access to imported gas.

Officials say the country needs around 400 million cubic feet of gas per day to support electricity generation and limit power shortages.

For now, authorities are trying to secure short-term supplies while waiting for normal deliveries to resume.


https://thepakistanconnect.com/azerbaijan-lng-pakistan/

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China’s Oil Giants Begin Selling Crude as Refinery Cuts Deepen

The trading arms of some of China’s biggest state-owned oil giants have started selling crude for May loadings in a rare move from the majors that have cut refinery rates in response to soaring oil prices and constrained crude supply from the Middle East.

Sinopec, the world’s biggest refiner by capacity, and Sinochem Group have already sold crude grades from Nigeria and Ghana, mostly to refiners in Asia, including Indonesia and Taiwan, anonymous traders with knowledge of the deals told Bloomberg on Wednesday.

The state refiners in China and many other refiners across Asia have slashed processing rates as their key source of supply, the oil producers in the Middle East, found themselves unable to move most of their crude to the markets due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Many Asian countries, including China, also rushed last month to ban fuel exports to protect domestic supply.

As early as mid-March, Sinopec reduced its run rates by 10% in response to the supply squeeze resulting from the traffic disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The size of the cut is equal to about half a million barrels daily. There will also be additional output losses from maintenance operations.

On the other hand, Chinese authorities have reportedly ordered private refiners to maintain high levels of gasoline and diesel supply, even at a loss, or risk their crude import quotas being slashed if they reduce run rates. If the private refiners move to cut processing rates to preserve margins amid soaring crude prices, they would see their import quotas – handed out by the government in quarterly or semi-annual installments – reduced in the coming years, the officials warned.

Meanwhile, China’s refinery runs continued to slip, and state refiners last week operated at below 70% of capacity last week, the lowest level since June 2022, Bloomberg notes, citing data from Mysteel Oilchem.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Oil-Giants-Begin-Selling-Crude-as-Refinery-Cuts-Deepen.html

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StanChart: $95 Per Barrel Is The New Oil Price Equilibrium

By Alex Kimani - Apr 22, 2026, 7:00 PM CDT

  • Oil prices jumped above $100 after Iran’s IRGC seized vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions despite an extended ceasefire.
  • Markets are being driven by geopolitical headlines, with tight physical supply and disrupted flows forcing major production cuts in the Gulf.
  • Analysts expect sustained higher oil prices, even post-conflict, while gas markets remain relatively stable due to ample supply.

Oil prices were rallying again on Wednesday after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) captured two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude for June delivery gained 2.99% to trade at $101.40 per barrel at 3.49 pm ET, while the corresponding WTI crude contract was up 3.18% to change hands at $92.52/bbl. Iranian state media reported that the vessels violated maritime regulations, operated without permits, and tampered with navigation systems. The IRGC identified the seized ships as Panama-flagged MSC Francesca and Liberia-flagged Epaminondas. A third ship, identified as the Euphoria, was also fired upon and reportedly became stranded near the Iranian coast. The seizures came just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he is extending the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely to allow its leadership time to present a unified proposal to end the ongoing war. Trump, however, directed the U.S. military to continue the naval blockade of Iranian ports.

And now oil and commodity experts at Standard Chartered have reported that the Brent crude price of $95/bbl appears to represent an uneasy equilibrium between hopes of de-escalation and structural tightness in physical balances that is increasing as time passes. 

Despite trading in a $13.71/bbl weekly front-month range, Brent prices for June delivery have traded through $95/bbl on eight of the last nine trading days, and have settled within $1/bbl of it on six of those nine days. This includes 20 April, when the front-month settled at $95.48/bbl.Related: Brazil’s Trade Surplus Surges To A Record $14.2 Billion Amid High Oil Prices

The forward curve remains in strong backwardation, with slight rotation w/w; the very back of the curve has pushed slightly higher (Brent for delivery five years out rose by $0.33/bbl w/w to $70.13/bbl), while 2027 contracts have softened incrementally. 1M Dated Brent fell by $8.03/bbl w/w to settle at $96.17/bbl on 20th April, with the dislocation between physical and financial benchmarks tightening. Dated Brent (or 1M Dated Brent/first-month Dated Brent) is a crucial physical benchmark for pricing crude oil, representing the value of light, sweet crude oil from the North Sea that has a specific delivery date allocated to it, usually within the next 10 to 30 days.

StanChart notes that near-term oil price movements are now largely headline-driven, constantly taking direction from escalation and de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict amid tightening in physical oil markets. Constrained transit through the Strait of Hormuz has forced Gulf producers to shut-in production, with countries in the region cutting output by between 25% and 80% while spare capacity tightness and reliance on certain transit routes has been highlighted. The oil experts expect this theme to continue even when OPEC launches its maximum sustainable capacity (MSC) metric.

Last November, OPEC+ mandated the OPEC Secretariat to develop and implement a new Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) metric, with the assessment process scheduled to take place between January and September 2026. This audited, technical metric will be used to determine the production baselines for the year 2027 onwards, replacing previous politically negotiated quotas.OPEC defines MSC as "the average maximum number of barrels a day of crude oil that can be produced within 90 days and can be sustained continuously for one full year, including all planned maintenance activities". The main objective of the MSC is to reward members who invest in upstream capacity, improve transparency and combat overproduction by closing loopholes.

Meanwhile, Brent crude remains in strong backwardation along the forward curve, with the back stable at $68-70 per barrel (bbl). StanChart has predicted that oil prices will remain $10-20/bbl higher than pre-conflict levels even after the acute stage of the conflict ends, supported by purchasing for strategic reserves, a focus on resource nationalism and hoarding, as well as the logistical lags caused by the disruption.

That said, natural gas markets have continued to cope remarkably well with the loss of the majority of Middle East gas supply. Henry Hub gas prices have declined from a one-year high of ~$7.50/MMBtu when the war in Iran started in late February to trade at $2.85/MMBtu on Wednesday, while Europe’s gas prices hovered around €43 per MWh on Wednesday from above €60 per MWh when the war started. StanChart has noted that expected volumes to be delivered to the market outweigh current and expected reductions over the next few years, helping to contain the market shortfall and associated price reaction.

Still, Europe and Asia will likely be in competition for molecules in the summer months, with Europe already starting to replenish relatively tight storage inventories. This is likely to support higher prices. U.S. gas prices remain equally muted, dampened by weather and plentiful supply. However, prices here could see longer-term support from increasing domestic demand for data-centre power generation, heating/cooling as well as export demand for LNG in the medium term.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/StanChart-95-Per-Barrel-Is-The-New-Oil-Price-Equilibrium.html

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US Intercepts Three Iranian Oil Tankers In Asian Waters

US forces patrol near the Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska after it was boarded and seized by US forces on Sunday, at a location given as the Arabian Sea, in this handout image released April 20, 2026. (via Reuters)

Published: 23 April, 2026: 12:25 AM GST Updated: 23 April, 2026: 12:51 AM GST

The US military has intercepted at least three Iranian-flagged tankers in Asian waters and is redirecting them away from their positions near India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, shipping and security sources said on Wednesday.

Washington has imposed a blockade on Iran’s trade by sea while Iran has fired on ships to prevent them sailing through the Strait of Hormuz waterway at the entrance to the Middle East Gulf. Nearly two months after the US and Israel began their war on Iran, there is little sign of peace talks resuming during an uneasy ceasefire.


https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/middle-east/2026/04/23/us-intercepts-three-iranian-oil-tankers-in-asian-waters-sources-say-

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Precious Metals

Harmony Gold Discloses Ninety One’s Stake Rising to 5.2%

The latest update is out from Harmony Gold Mining (HMY).

On 20 April 2026, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced that asset manager Ninety One (Pty) Ltd. had increased its holding in the miner’s ordinary shares. Ninety One now owns 5.2017% of Harmony’s issued share capital, crossing a disclosure threshold that triggers mandatory notification under South African company and JSE listing regulations.

Harmony confirmed it has filed the required notice with the Takeover Regulation Panel, signalling full compliance with section 122 of the Companies Act. The board, which has accepted responsibility for the accuracy of the disclosure, framed the development as a formal recognition of a significant institutional shareholder on its register, a data point closely watched by existing and prospective investors.

The announcement, dated 20 April 2026 from Johannesburg, underscores regulatory transparency around shifts in Harmony’s ownership structure. While the company did not comment on strategic implications, the increased stake by Ninety One may be interpreted by the market as a vote of confidence from a major fund manager in Harmony’s prospects and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Hold with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.

Spark’s Take on HMY Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, HMY is a Outperform.

The score is supported by strong financial fundamentals (profitability, low leverage, solid cash generation) and a cheap valuation (low P/E). This is partially offset by weak technical positioning (below key moving averages with negative MACD and sub-50 RSI). Earnings-call commentary is constructive with upgraded guidance, adding support but not enough to overcome the current technical weakness.

More about Harmony Gold Mining

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is a South African gold mining and exploration company listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange under the code HAR. The group operates gold assets primarily in South Africa and is focused on extracting and producing gold, giving investors leveraged exposure to the precious metals sector.

Average Trading Volume: 5,590,078

Technical Sentiment Signal: Buy

Current Market Cap: $10.86B


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/HMY/pressreleases/1425069/harmony-gold-discloses-ninety-ones-stake-rising-to-52/

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Thinking About Selling Your Gold? Read This First

You bought gold for a reason.

Maybe it was inflation, dollar risk, geopolitics — or just the conviction that owning something real made sense. The reasoning felt solid then. It probably still is.

But the price is moving — up, down, sideways — and a quiet question has crept in: should I still be holding this?

That question is normal. Acting on it is costly. GoldSilver’s analysis of more than five decades of gold price data shows that investors who sold during uncertain periods consistently forfeited the return bursts that make long-term gold ownership worthwhile.

Why Do Gold Holders Feel the Urge to Sell?

The urge to sell during volatile stretches is natural — but it’s precisely how most long-term gold returns get forfeited. Gold doesn’t move like a savings account. It lurches and drops when you’d expect it to hold, or sits flat for months, then spikes without warning.

That unpredictability generates the anxiety. It also generates the return. They’re the same thing.

Since 1971 — when Nixon ended the dollar’s convertibility to gold and free-market trading began — gold has returned approximately 8–9% per year compounded. But that return doesn’t arrive steadily. It concentrates in a small number of days each year, scattered unpredictably across decades.

Key Finding — GoldSilver Analysis of Gold Price Data Since 1971

More than 98% of gold’s total compounded return since 1971 came from just the two best trading days per year. Miss those two days annually, and the long-term annualized return drops from approximately 8–9% to near zero — over more than five decades.

The investor holding on those days captured that return. The one who’d sold — even briefly — didn’t.

What Is the Reactive Sell — and What Does It Actually Cost?

The Reactive Sell is the decision to exit a gold position because the price fell or holding feels uncomfortable — not because your investment thesis changed. It’s the most common way long-term gold investors forfeit their return. It rarely feels like a mistake when it happens.

The Reactive Sell has a specific, calculable cost: missing just the single best trading day each year cuts gold’s annualized return from roughly 8–9% to about what cash earns. Miss the two best days, and it collapses to near zero over more than five decades. Not because gold failed — because the investor wasn’t there.

What makes this especially difficult is the clustering problem. According to GoldSilver’s analysis, in roughly one out of every six years studied, gold’s single best day and worst day fell within the same calendar week — about five times more often than random chance would predict. The bad day triggers the urge to sell. The good day follows days later — sometimes the very next session.

Selling into volatility doesn’t reduce your risk. It exchanges one risk for a worse one: missing the days that actually matter.

Is Gold Volatility a Warning Sign — or Is It the Deal?

Gold volatility isn’t a warning sign. It’s the mechanism by which the return gets delivered. The discomfort you feel right now isn’t a signal that something has gone wrong. It’s the texture of owning an asset that does its job.

Gold has recovered from every major drawdown in its modern history. The investors who captured gold’s purchasing power advantage — its roughly 8–9% annual return against approximately 4% average annual CPI inflation since 1971 — weren’t the ones who timed their exits well. They were the ones who held when it was uncomfortable.

Selling when uncertain feels like risk management. The data says otherwise: it raises the probability of missing the exact days that drive long-term performance.

So What Should You Actually Do If You’re Anxious About Holding Gold?

If you’re anxious about your gold position, hold — and treat that anxiety as a portfolio sizing question, not a timing signal.

Persistent discomfort usually means the allocation is larger than you can hold without stress. If that’s true, a single considered adjustment — down to a size you won’t second-guess — is more valuable than cycling in and out every time the price dips. The goal isn’t a perfect position. It’s one you’ll actually keep.

What the data argues against is the impulsive exit: selling because the price is down, because you’re uncertain, because holding feels hard. That exit has a price tag. You won’t see it on your statement. You’ll see it years later, in the return that wasn’t there.


https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/video/should-i-sell-my-gold/

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Ranked: Central Banks Buying and Selling Gold in 2026

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Base Metals

South32 Pumps Aluminium Output to Seize High Prices

SOUTH32, the global metals producer, is pulling out all stops to take advantage of aluminium prices at four-year highs, even as the Middle East conflict pushes up input costs.

As a result of the disruption to shipping and Middle East aluminium smelters, the three-month aluminium price quoted on the LME is currently at a four-year high of $3,557/t.

South32 said in its March quarter production report that its Hillside aluminium smelter in South Africa was testing its maximum technical capacity, despite the impact of load shedding. However, it produced 3% less at 176,000t in the March quarter than in the December quarter, and sales slipped by 16% as a shipment was pushed back into the June quarter.

The group’s Mozal smelter in Mozambique, which was a significant aluminium producer, was placed on care and maintenance on 15 March because South32 could not secure an affordable electricity tariff. As Mozal winds down, its saleable production fell by 28% quarter on quarter to 65,000t. It will draw down its remaining inventory in the June quarter.

Output from Brazil Aluminium was lower due to pot outages and electricity disruptions experienced in December, but operations have become more stable and it is currently ahead of production guidance.

South32’s two alumina operations, Worsley Alumina in Australia and Brazil Alumina, are both experiencing cost pressures due to market conditions, higher global freight rates and rising caustic soda prices caused by the Middle East conflict.

Production from South32’s manganese operation in South Africa was flat at 500,000wmt. It has been undergoing maintenance in the past two quarters, but this is now completed.

South32’s outgoing CEO, Graham Kerr, said the group was maintaining its previous production guidance for all operations except Australia Manganese, which was dealing with higher water levels.

The group is continuing to invest the bulk of its capex in growing its copper, zinc and silver output. It spent US$496 million on its Hermosa project in the US in the nine months to end-March. In the second half of 2026, it expects to secure the Final Record of Decision from the US Forest Service for the project, which would enable it to build the necessary infrastructure.


https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/65106-south32-pumps-aluminium-output-to-seize-high-prices/

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Q2 2026 Sees Oversupply Weighing on FOB Australia Alumina Prices; Bauxite Mining, Price, Ore, Mineral, Formula, Production

alumina stock price

FOB Australia alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure in the second quarter of 2026 due to continued oversupply in the market.

Demand for alumina weakened in late Q1 as smelter operations in the Middle East were disrupted by geopolitical conflict. Production cuts at aluminium smelters reduced alumina consumption, while refinery output remained largely steady. This created excess supply, which moved into the seaborne market.

According to S&P Global Platts, FOB Australia alumina was assessed at USD 304 per tonne on April 15. The average price for Q1 was USD 306.91 per tonne, down 2.82 per cent from the previous quarter. Prices in China also declined, with CIF China alumina averaging USD 331.36 per tonne and domestic prices falling further.

Brazilian alumina traded at a 10.22 per cent higher premium to Australian material week-over-week, averaging USD 28.50 per tonne in Q1.

Middle East disruptions added volatility in the global market. Smelters in Qatar and Bahrain reduced operations due to supply issues and attacks on industrial facilities. Emirates Global Aluminium's Al Taweelah complex was damaged, leading to a shutdown that could take up to a year to fully restore. These disruptions reduced regional alumina demand.

At the same time, supply increased. Material that would have gone to affected smelters was redirected to global markets. Outside the region, additional supply pressures emerged after South32 placed its Mozal smelter in Mozambique under care and maintenance, redirecting alumina volumes to external buyers.

Rising energy and freight costs supported China’s alumina market from early March. Prices strengthened in spot and futures markets on concerns over possible bauxite supply limits from Guinea, though no firm policy changes were confirmed.

Freight from Kamsar to China averaged USD 29.96 per tonne in March, up 22 per cent quarter over quarter. CIF China spot bauxite was assessed at USD 68 per dry tonne on April 9, while FOB Guinea bauxite stood at USD 34 per dry tonne.

Higher Chinese prices helped absorb surplus supply through imports, easing pressure on FOB Australia alumina. However, this support may weaken as new refining capacity in Guangxi comes online.


https://www.alcircle.com/news/q2-2026-sees-oversupply-weighing-on-fob-australia-alumina-prices-118154

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Steel

EU Steel Processors Question Sustainability of Price Hikes

The sharp rise in coil costs and the prospect of supply shortages in the coming months are expected to weigh heavily on the European manufacturing segment. Several sources warn that the loss of competitiveness flagged by industry associations to the European Commission is now close to materialising.

Coil derivative prices in Italy are rising but continue to lag behind European coil increases, prompting re-rollers to use the Tube and Wire fair last week to implement increases.

One Spanish coil seller tells Kallanish after the trade show that clients are reporting a stagnating market, with demand described as practically at a standstill and activity broadly sluggish this month.

Italian re-rollers and service centres describe an increasingly difficult market. Steelmakers are now clearly benefitting from CBAM and quotas on one side while the downstream sector is struggling to absorb input cost increases on the other.

One large service centre describes the prospect of extremely expensive hot rolled coil as a serious concern. In Dusseldorf, the general understanding among participants was that prices will increase in the coming weeks to around €770/tonne ($905.70/t) base delivered, although no increases were announced at the tradeshow itself.

With the new safeguard measures set to take effect this summer alongside CBAM, importing is expected to become increasingly challenging, leaving European supply as the only realistic alternative for most market participants. Several sources anticipate HRC asking prices to rise by around €100/t compared to current levels as July approaches.

The market is expected to find itself with depleted inventories by then, having used up import purchases made over recent months, with no cheaper alternative to pricey EU coils.

Despite the challenging geopolitical environment, the new safeguard measures will be implemented with its full force, slashing quotas significantly. “It will be a blow to all steel processing companies,” one large service centre source says.

He adds that companies currently importing must record default CBAM values in their financial reporting for the year as emissions certification for suppliers will not be available until September, meaning there will be no way to certify suppliers before the first quarter of 2027.

Large re-rollers continue to source from the import market, though at significant risk. They are also absorbing the majority of available quota allocations, as shown by Indian quotas for the second quarter already being exhausted and Turkish quotas depleting rapidly.

Sheet demand remains generally weak, with activity limited to temporary phases of restocking. Despite service centres’ attempts to push prices to €800/t ($940.99/t), hot rolled sheet contract prices are holding at €770/t base delivered, with some contracts being concluded at €20/t below this.


https://eurometal.net/eu-steel-processors-question-sustainability-of-price-hikes/

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2026/04/22 Global Steel Daily Report

China Steel Market:

[Sheets & plates] HRC export prices today were quoted at $492-496/mt, up $2-3/mt WoW, while other sheets & plates were up $1-4/mt WoW. Recent inquiry activity for sheets & plates was moderate, and Middle Eastern Gulf countries also began requesting FOB prices. Semi-finished products side, some steel mills reported that due to delayed shipping schedules combined with rising prices, recent slab transaction performance was lackluster.

[Steel Billet] Billet export FOB prices were quoted at $472-475/mt, with high-end prices at $478/mt. Shipments to the Middle East with dual-certification requirements were quoted at $490-495/mt. Prices rose relatively quickly recently, and inquiry activity and actual transaction levels fell short of those seen at the beginning of the month.

[Rebar] Rebar export FOB prices were quoted at $480-485/mt, flat from yesterday. Some steel mills reported that foreign-standard rebar quotes were on the stronger side, with high-priced resources difficult to transact.

International Steel Market:

[India] HRC export offers to the EU increased to ~$705/t CFR, mainly due to higher freight costs. Logistics disruptions (Red Sea, Suez, Hormuz) forced rerouting via the Cape, extending transit times and reducing competitiveness, while no deals were concluded as buyers remained cautious. Market sentiment is weak to cautious, with stalled Middle East trade and pressure from high freight costs and unclear demand.

[UAE] Emirates Steel, a UAE-based steel company, has maintained the list price of 12-32mm diameter rebar for May delivery in the domestic market at 2,720.87 UAE dirhams per ton (USD 741) ex-works, the same as in April.

[EU] A steel mill in Germany has announced that its rebar price will increase by $60 per ton to $835 per ton; a steel mill in Italy has indicated that the increase may exceed $60 per ton, with the latest price expected to exceed $860 per ton. In terms of driving factors, steel mills generally face rising energy costs, while tightened EU import protection (including CBAM costs and new measures effective from July) has strengthened the pricing power of European domestic steel mills. Although there are still large inventories of imported products in some markets, which may suppress short-term orders, under the combined cost pressure and policy support, the significant price increase is expected to be accepted by the market by mid-May.


https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/103870145-20260422-Global-Steel-Daily-Report

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