The world’s energy watchdog will consider releasing further emergency crude stocks into the global market to cool rising oil prices after warning that it will take time for markets to recover from the ongoing crisis in the strait of Hormuz.
Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said its members continued to hold large reserves of emergency oil stocks even after agreeing to the biggest release of government crude in the history of the market, meaning more emergency oil reserves could still be released “as and if needed”.
It came as the price of Brent crude rose almost 3% within minutes of the market opening on Monday, to about $106.50 a barrel. It later dipped by about 2%, but was still trading at just above $100 a barrel.
About 100m barrels of emergency oil stockpiles will be made available to buyers in Asia this week in the first release from a planned 400m barrel deluge of crude into the global market to make up for the lost exports from Gulf nations, which has caused global oil prices to surge by 40% this month.
“Despite this huge release, we still have a lot of stocks left,” Birol said. “This current stock release, once it is completed, will reduce the emergency stocks in IEA countries only by about 20%.”
Birol warned that although the emergency reserves would provide a buffer for now, it was vital to reopen the strait of Hormuz to allow Gulf oil and gas to reach the global market.
Donald Trump on Monday repeated his call to global leaders to help unblock the strait of Hormuz, which before the crisis transported a fifth of the world’s seaborne crude from the world’s biggest producers to the international buyers.
“Some are very enthusiastic about it, and some aren’t,” Trump told reporters. “Some are countries that we’ve helped for many, many years. We’ve protected them from horrible outside sources, and they weren’t that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm matters to me.”
The US retaliated to Iran’s effective blockade on the vital oil trade route with the weekend attack on Kharg Island, which is home to the infrastructure which exports about 90% of the Middle Eastern country’s crude.
Although the US military did not damage the oil hub, the attack raised further concerns over the Gulf’s crude production, which is falling as producers are forced to shut their oilfields.
Birol said global governments should be prepared for if the conflict continues for a while longer, and warned that global energy trade would take some time to recover even after the conflict ends.
Major US stock indices rose on Tuesday, led by financial and airline stocks, while market participants weighed the impact of the Middle East war on global fuel prices.
Although crude oil values extended their recent climb, equities maintained an upward trajectory during early trading.
At 10:12 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 321.19 points, or 0.68%, to 47,267.60, the S&P 500 gained 36.45 points, or 0.54%, to 6,735.83 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 120.48 points, or 0.54%, to 22,494.66.
At the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 139.1 points, or 0.30%, to 47,085.53. The S&P 500 rose 23.0 points, or 0.34%, to 6,722.35, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 83.9 points, or 0.37%, to 22,458.032.
The spike in oil prices following the regional conflict has weighed heavily on the stock market over the past several weeks.
"Investors are becoming desensitized to the big swings in oil" as long as it stays in the range of the past days because "investors are already pricing in higher oil prices," said Adam Sarhan of 50 Park Investments, according to AFP.
Investors are simultaneously bracing for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy announcement on Wednesday. Analysts broadly anticipate that the US central bank to maintain current interest rates while gauging the economic disruptions caused by the ongoing war.
"There are too many moving parts in a regular economy and then on top of it, we have this tremendously impactful conflict, which will make it even more impossible for the Fed to discern any patterns right now," said Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management, according to Reuters.
"I would expect the Fed to stay on hold and to have a very unremarkable transcript and press conference," added Andersen.
Key Stock Movers
Financial stocks recovered from significant losses in the previous week, during which investor confidence was shaken by concerns regarding the quality of private credit.
JPMorgan Chase climbed 1.2%, Goldman Sachs gained 1.97%, and Citigroup added 0.9%. Blue Owl Capital soared 5% and Ares Management rose 5.1%.
Shares of Delta Airlines and American Airlines surged more than 4% as executives reported robust US travel demand that helped offset a hit from higher jet fuel costs.
Uber Technologies shares jumped 5.6% after the ride-hailing app announcing plans to roll out robotaxis in 28 cities starting next year, powered by Nvidia's autonomous driving software.
Honeywell International stock fell 0.3% after the industrial giant said the West Asia conflict could impact its first quarter revenue.
Bullion Market
Gold prices were flat on Tuesday, as investors monitored the intensifying Iran conflict.
By 10:51 a.m. ET (1451 GMT), spot gold was little changed at $5,016.53 per ounce. US gold futures for April delivery rose 0.4% to $5,021.10.
Chinese state-owned oil and gas companies, seeking to avoid supply shortages due to the war in the Middle East, have resumed their search for Russian oil cargoes after a four-month hiatus, taking advantage of an exception to US sanctions. This was reported by Reuters, citing five sources, writes UNN.
Details
The trading units of state-owned Sinopec and PetroChina this week approached suppliers about possible purchases of Russian oil — these would be their first purchases since November, said sources close to the Russian oil trade.
The publication notes that although no deals had been confirmed as of Tuesday, two sources said that deals could be concluded soon, as Russian oil remains cheaper compared to competitors from Brazil and West Africa, despite rising prices and premiums due to the US and Israel's war against Iran, which began on February 28.
A state oil trader reported that Chinese companies are "assessing the situation," including whether payment and delivery are possible within the 30-day exception, which began on March 12 and applies to cargoes that have already been loaded.
Sinopec and PetroChina have not yet provided comments.
One source familiar with PetroChina's operations noted that companies may also be trying to secure cargoes amid the "chaos" by buying Russian-origin oil from independent Chinese refiners or traders who already have it in storage.
Some "teapots" (independent refineries) are willing to resell, as it brings them more profit than refining at their own plants - added the source.
A cargo of Russian ESPO crude, the main export grade from the Far East, arriving in late April, was last offered by a Russian producer at $8 a barrel above the July ICE Brent contract on a delivered basis. In comparison, Brazilian Tupi crude for April was valued at a premium of $12–15 over dated Brent.
The price difference for ESPO, which is mainly consumed by independent Chinese refineries, changed last week from a discount of $7–10 for March cargoes to a premium of $2–3 for April/May deliveries.
China's seaborne imports of Russian oil rose to a record 1.92 million barrels per day in February, according to Kpler, as independent buyers snapped up heavily discounted cargoes after demand from India, a major buyer, declined.
State-owned companies suspended purchases of Russian oil from late October after the US imposed sanctions against major Russian oil companies — Rosneft and Lukoil.
However, the sharp rise in spot premiums and Brent prices above $100 a barrel temporarily complicates the work of independent refineries, three sources noted, as they are supplied with cheaper stocks of Russian and Iranian oil purchased before the war began.
The governments of Iraq and the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan have reached an agreement on the terms to restart the flow of oil via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline, starting today.
Oil prices dipped on the news, even though the pipeline’s capacity is up to 250,000 barrels daily, meaning it will not make much of a difference in global supply. Brent crude was trading at over $101 per barrel at the time of writing, down from $103, and West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for close to $93.
Iraq has had to slash its production from fields outside Kurdistan to just 1.3 million barrels daily as a result of the paralysis of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, as it ran out of storage space. Prior to the war, Iraq was pumping a total of over 4 million barrels daily.
The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has been mostly offline for years now, amid a dispute regarding the distribution of payments between the governments in Baghdad and Erbil.
Meanwhile, Iraq has initiated talks with Iran to get at least some oil out via the Strait of Hormuz. “There is communication with Iran regarding allowing the passage of some Iraqi oil tankers,” the country’s oil minister said in statements reported by Iraqi media.
Iraq, unlike Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, doesn’t have any options – even partial – to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed for over two weeks now, forcing Baghdad to slash oil production as storage sites and tankers available in the Gulf filled up.
This is a bigger problem for OPEC’s number-two producer because of its heavy dependence on oil revenues and the absence of a sovereign wealth fund, unlike its fellow OPEC members in the region. The restart of the pipeline to Turkey’s Ceyhan may bring some relief, but not a lot.
RWE has delivered first power from its 1,080MW Thor project, which is due to be Denmark’s largest offshore wind farm.
The company’s CEO for offshore wind, Sven Utermöhlen, said RWE plans to bring the North Sea project into commercial operation by 2027.
The wind farm off Denmark’s west coast is due to consist of 72 of Siemens Gamesa’s SG 15-236 DD turbines, 36 of which will feature turbine towers using steel that the manufacturer claims has a lower carbon footprint than with normal production methods.
Siemens Gamesa will equip up to 40 of the turbines with its recyclable rotor blades.
RWE secured the rights to build Thor in a tender in November 2021, which was settled by a lottery as several developers had offered the same terms.
Norway’s state oil and gas fund – Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) – bought a 49% stake in the project in 2025.
NBIM was set up to ensure the long-term management of revenue from Norway’s oil and gas resources, and currently manages NOK 19.7 trillion ($1.8 trillion) in investments.
It has previously invested in offshore wind farms in Germany, the Netherlands and the UK, according to Windpower Intelligence, the research and data division of Windpower Monthly.
https://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1951950/first-power-denmarks-largest-offshore-wind-farm
Gold (XAU/USD) is holding near the $5,000 level as markets wait for direction from the Federal Reserve. Price remains range-bound as expectations point to steady policy in the near term. At the same time, rising energy costs are lifting inflation concerns and reducing expectations for aggressive rate cuts. A firmer Dollar and higher yields are limiting upside, while geopolitical tensions continue to support safe-haven demand. This balance is keeping gold stable as it consolidates near key levels.
Gold holds near $5,000 as Fed signals and inflation risks shape outlook
Gold is consolidating below the $5,000 level as markets await a clear catalyst. Price remains range-bound ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Focus now shifts to forward guidance and updated economic projections. The dot plot and Powell’s remarks will shape expectations for the next policy steps. This backdrop keeps the market cautious and limits clear directional movement.
At the same time, inflation concerns are rising again due to energy market disruptions. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have affected global oil supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy prices are feeding into broader inflation expectations. As a result, markets are scaling back expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026. Current pricing suggests a more limited easing cycle, possibly delayed toward year-end.
Meanwhile, the stronger macro backdrop is supporting the US Dollar and limiting gold’s upside. Higher yields and reduced expectations for policy easing are pressuring non-yielding assets. However, geopolitical risks continue to provide underlying support. Ongoing conflict and elevated uncertainty are sustaining demand for safe-haven assets. This mix of macro pressure and risk-driven demand is keeping gold stable near current levels.
Gold tests key support as broadening wedge signals expanding volatility
The gold chart below shows price advancing within a well-defined ascending channel that has guided the trend since early 2025. Price continues to respect this structure, with higher lows consistently forming along channel support. This orderly progression reflects a sustained bullish trend. Each consolidation phase has transitioned into a renewed advance, signaling persistent underlying demand.
More recently, price action has shifted into an ascending broadening wedge, signaling an expansion in volatility as the range between highs and lows widens. This formation developed after a strong advance from lower trendline support, where momentum accelerated sharply. Price then transitioned into a broader structure with larger swings. This shift indicates a transition from steady growth into a more dynamic phase.
Currently, gold is consolidating just below the $5,000 level near the upper portion of the structure. The recent pullback appears controlled, with price currently testing the rising support of the wedge. If this structure continues to hold, gold may attempt another move higher within the expanding range. However, short-term pauses remain possible as price stabilizes after the recent pullback.
Gold outlook: Mixed macro drivers and strong structure keep price stable
Gold remains stable near $5,000 as markets weigh Fed policy expectations against rising geopolitical risks. The broader trend stays positive, supported by sustained demand and a strong technical structure. At the same time, short-term consolidation reflects firm yields and a stronger Dollar. Price is now testing a key support zone within the current formation, which may guide the next move. If this level holds, gold could push higher, although near-term pauses remain possible as conditions evolve.
Posted on 17 Mar 2026
Resolution Copper, a joint venture between Rio Tinto (55%) and BHP (45%), and the United States Forest Service (USFS) have completed what the mining companies say is a historic land exchange, unlocking the next phase of one of the world’s largest untapped copper deposits.
Completion of the land exchange follows a March 13 decision in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit which ruled in favour of Resolution Copper and the federal government, denying the plaintiffs’ requests to stop the exchange.
Resolution Copper has now placed environmentally and culturally sensitive land into protection through the transfer of more than 5,400 acres (2,185 ha) of land containing special status species, riparian areas, and Native American cultural sites for inclusion in National Forests and National Conservation Areas. In return, it has received over 2,400 acres of land adjacent to the historic Magma copper mine in Superior, Arizona.
Legislation to facilitate the land exchange passed with bipartisan support in 2014. Since then, more than a decade of consultation and coordination with civil society organisations, local communities including the Town of Superior and Native American Tribes, has helped to shape the land exchange process.
Resolution Copper also announces additional preliminary spending of approximately $500 million over two years to support enabling works including surface drilling to collect additional resource information, funding to support Native American Tribes and local communities, as well as costs associated with the land exchange. The funds will also deliver upgrades to existing project infrastructure and initial underground development activities as well as approximately 100 new jobs.
These activities will take place in parallel with ongoing collaboration with local communities and Native American Tribes as well as state-level permitting.
Rio Tinto Copper Chief Executive, Katie Jackson, said: “Rio Tinto is building a stronger copper business with a pipeline of large, long-life resources that can help meet growing global demand for the materials needed for electrification, infrastructure and modern technologies.
“Completing the land exchange is a significant milestone and another positive step forward for the Resolution Copper project, which has the potential to satisfy up to 25% of America’s copper demand for decades to come. It’s expected to add $1 billion a year to Arizona’s economy and create thousands of local jobs in a region where mining has played an important role for more than a century.
“As demand for copper continues to grow, projects like Resolution can play an important role in strengthening domestic supply chains. We acknowledge the support of the U.S. Government and its growing recognition of the need for domestic sources of copper and other critical materials.”
Troilus Mining (TSX: TLG; US-OTCQX: CHXMF) confirmed it signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Boliden Commercial AB for the long‑term offtake of copper‑gold concentrate from its Troilus project in north‑central Quebec.
The MoU formalizes indicative commercial offtake terms first announced on July 10, 2025 and establishes a framework for future concentrate deliveries. Boliden, a European base‑ and precious‑metals miner and processor, operates seven mines and five smelters across Sweden, Finland, Norway, Ireland and Portugal.
Troilus noted the agreement follows a memorandum of agreement with Aurubis AG signed in August 2025, strengthening the company’s commercial strategy as it advances project financing and moves toward construction. Together, the MoU with Boliden and the Aurubis agreement secure long‑term relationships with two major European smelters and support Troilus’s role in critical mineral supply chains.
“Boliden is a highly respected partner with deep expertise in responsibly processing copper concentrates. Advancing our relationship to this stage reflects growing commercial confidence in the quality, scale and strategic importance of our Project, and reinforces Quebec’s position as a stable, clean-energy jurisdiction for responsible mineral development," Justin Reid, CEO of Troilus, commented.
He added, "Alongside our agreement with Aurubis, this MoU further underpins our concentrate marketing strategy and aligns with the structures project financing process currently underway.”
The company said the commercial agreements cover significant portions of the project’s anticipated concentrate production and form a key part of its broader financing plan, which is progressing in parallel with a potential senior project debt facility of up to US$1 billion supported by a syndicate of international financial institutions and export credit agencies.
Under Troilus’s May 2024 feasibility study, the project is expected to produce an annual average of about 135.4 million pounds of copper equivalent, or roughly 75,000 wet metric tonnes of concentrate containing payable copper, gold and silver.
Ocean Partners USA remains Troilus’s independent third‑party advisor on concentrate offtake strategy, and Auramet International Inc. continues to serve as project finance advisor.
More information is available at www.TroilusMining.com
Hindalco Industries Limited expects its aluminium exports to rise in the coming months as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, resulting in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupt regional supply.
Managing Director Satish Pai said that the company plans to increase shipments to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, leveraging supply gaps created by the ongoing conflict in the region. While Hindalco already exports to these markets, as noted by Pai, “the macro situation is West Asia has given us headroom to export more to these regions.”
At present, the company exports around 25 per cent of its total aluminium output of approximately 1.3 million tonnes annually. The six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), with a combined capacity of 6.5 million tonnes, account for over 8 per cent of global primary aluminium production. As the region exports 5 to 5.5 million tonnes of its produced aluminium, it indicates the impact of ongoing geopolitical disruptions at a primary supply base on the global market at large.
Aluminium prices have improved amid supply constraints at the Strait of Hormuz, surpassing USD 3,500 per tonne recently, with the current quarter average at about USD 3,170 per tonne, compared to USD 2,830 per tonne in the previous quarter. The upward trend of prices is expected to support Hindalco’s earnings outlook.
"With aluminium prices in the range of USD 3,400-USD 3,500, we are very well-placed," Pai mentioned.
Hindalco denies the extruded aluminium production halt
On March 16, Hindalco clarified that its Aluminium Extrusions business continues to operate normally, dismissing reports of a production halt due to gas shortages.
Accounting for approximately 90,000 tonnes per year, the extrusions segment takes up a relatively small portion of Hindalco’s annual aluminium production, with any potential impact estimated at less than 0.1 per cent of overall operations.
Pai noted that the production remains “completely unhampered” as most of the company’s extrusion furnaces are dual-fired, allowing it to adopt fuel alternatives such as furnace oil.
With strengthened prices and shifting trade flows, Hindalco has the vantage point to capitalise on export opportunities, especially in Asian markets, as well as maintain stable domestic operations.
Jamshedpur, March 17
Tata Steel has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the University of Science and Technology Beijing (USTB) to collaborate on the development of low-carbon steelmaking technologies, reinforcing the Company’s commitment to advancing sustainable steel production.
As part of the MoU, the research teams from Tata Steel, Tata Steel Research and Innovation Limited and USTB will jointly undertake research across four broad themes addressing low-carbon steelmaking: scrap-based steelmaking, steel waste valorisation, end-product performance, and carbon capture & utilisation technologies.
The collaboration will leverage USTB’s academic expertise along with its experimental and pilot-scale facilities, enabling promising technologies to be tested, piloted and potentially scaled up for industrial application. For Tata Steel, it reinforces a long-standing commitment to innovation-led decarbonisation and the belief that collaboration across borders is essential to building a low-carbon future for heavy industries worldwide.
Commenting on the partnership, Subodh Pandey, Vice President – Technology, R&D, NMB and Graphene, Tata Steel, said: “Low carbon steelmaking and associated product development for our customers is the need of the hour. At Tata Steel, we are actively driving the global transition to low-carbon steelmaking, and innovation is at the core of this journey. Through our collaboration with USTB, we aim to unlock potential ideas and co‑create technologies that will advance our sustainability goals and contribute to a cleaner, more efficient future for the steel industry.”
Prof. Shuqiang Jiao, Vice President of USTB, said: “USTB and Tata Steel have maintained a long-standing partnership built on years of productive collaboration. This new initiative further strengthens their close ties and shared commitment to innovation. By combining USTB’s expertise in metallurgy and materials science with Tata Steel’s industrial strengths, the two sides will accelerate the engineering validation and industrial application of research outcomes.”
Academician Xinping Mao said, “The green transformation of the steel industry is a major challenge faced by the global steel sector and a critical step toward carbon neutrality. USTB has conducted long-term research in areas including low-carbon emissions metallurgical technologies, circular steel development, carbon capture and utilisation, etc. The partnership between Tata Steel and USTB will advance low-carbon steel production technologies and contribute to the green and sustainable development of the global steel industry.”
A new strategy for protecting the country's steel industry will be unveiled in the near future
The United Kingdom plans to double tariffs on steel imports as part of a broader strategy aimed at protecting the country’s steel industry, Politico reports, citing sources.
Trade Minister Peter Kyle is expected to announce the government’s steel strategy on March 19 at the Tata Steel UK plant in Port Talbot. Two sources familiar with the plans note that new protective measures for the British steel sector are being considered. This involves reducing import quotas for certain steel products while simultaneously raising tariffs on volumes exceeding the quotas to 50%. This move will bring the UK closer to the measures taken by the EU, the US, and Canada. Insiders added that there will be some exceptions for products not manufactured by British steelmakers.
The announcement of the UK’s strategy, which will shape the future of the country’s steel sector, has been repeatedly delayed. The new scheme is intended to replace the current system of steel safeguard measures.
In early February of this year, the head of Tata Steel UK told lawmakers that the government “has eight weeks to save the British steel industry” by protecting it with new protectionist measures against a flood of cheap imports from countries such as China.
At the same time, steel importers are unlikely to receive the full range of exemptions under the new scheme that they had hoped for, one source noted. In his view, the government will jeopardize manufacturers if import restrictions are too severe.
As a reminder, Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan recently called on the British government to take urgent action to support the steel industry. She pointed out that Port Talbot’s transition to electric arc furnace production faces uncertainty regarding trade measures.
Morgan reported that she had pressed this issue during a meeting with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, describing the need for action as “urgent.” Currently, the country’s steel industry faces challenges such as high energy costs, global overcapacity, and rising trade barriers. The Welsh government has called for the publication of a steel strategy as a matter of urgency to provide clarity and certainty for workers and the industry.
https://gmk.center/en/news/the-uk-plans-to-double-tariffs-on-steel-imports-politico/
During the survey period (March 10–March 16), the capacity utilization rate of rebar and wire rod rolling lines in the Central China region increased to varying degrees.
During the survey period (March 10–March 16), the operating rate of rebar rolling lines in Central China remained temporarily stable, while the capacity utilization rate edged up.
Specifically, this was mainly because EAF steel mills had intensively resumed production of rebar rolling lines in the previous period. The number of operating days in the current period was higher than in the previous period, driving a continued increase in rebar production. On plant-side inventory, during the survey period, the pace of downstream construction-site resumptions accelerated, and rigid-demand purchases improved WoW; coupled with phased market moves in futures mid-week, market trading sentiment improved somewhat, and overall inventory declined.
Rebar production in Central China is expected to continue increasing in the next period, mainly because the rolling-line rotation maintenance at certain blast furnace mills in Hunan has ended, and they are expected to resume production of one rebar rolling line as planned, driving the operating rate and capacity utilization rate higher in tandem.
During the survey period (March 10-March 16), wire rod supply in Central China continued to increase.
On the one hand, EAF steel mills in the region had resumed production of wire rod rolling lines on a concentrated basis in the previous period, and the number of operating days in the current period was higher than in the previous period, driving up the capacity utilization rate of wire rod. On the other hand, some steel mills in Hubei resumed production of one wire rod rolling line intermittently as planned to meet order demand, lifting the operating rate of rolling lines. Under the combined impact, the increase in wire rod supply was significant. In terms of mill inventories, performance diverged slightly across regions in the current period. Mill inventories in Hubei and Hunan remained stable, while inventories in Henan declined markedly, mainly because local end-use demand recovered relatively quickly and, stimulated by the rise in futures, distributors' willingness to purchase improved, driving inventory destocking at mills.
Wire rod supply in Central China is expected to continue increasing in the next period, mainly because some steel mills in Hubei resumed production of one wire rod rolling line in the current period, and the number of operating days in the next period will be higher than in the current period, driving up the capacity utilization rate of wire rod.
U.S. steel producer Nucor has again raised its spot consumer price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil (HRC) by $5 per short ton compared to the previous week. This was announced in a letter to customers dated March 16.
Thus, the new price stands at $1,015/short ton, marking the ninth consecutive price increase. The most significant increase occurred on March 2, when the company raised the CSP by $15/short ton.
The spot consumer price for Nucor’s joint venture on the West Coast — California Steel Industries (CSI) — also rose by $5, with the new price set at $1,065 per short ton.
Delivery terms remain unchanged, ranging from 3 to 5 weeks.
According to SMU, as of March 10, the average spot price for HRC in the U.S. market on FOB terms (east of the Rockies) stood at $1,005 per short ton, matching the previous week’s estimate.
As a reminder, two U.S. producers—Oregon Steel Mills and SSAB Americas — announced a $60 per short ton price increase for flat steel at the beginning of the month.
As reported by GMK Center, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co (Baosteel), a subsidiary of China Baowu Steel Group, raised prices for its main flat steel products, including hot-rolled coil (HRC), by 200 yuan per ton ($29/t) for domestic sales in April. The company’s decision is likely to influence the strategies of other major Asian producers.
https://gmk.center/en/news/nucor-raises-the-price-of-hot-rolled-coil-to-1-015-per-ton/amp/
International credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has announced that it has updated its near-term price assumptions for both iron ore and coking coal, reflecting stronger-than-expected market conditions and cost support in early 2026.
Iron ore forecast raised amid cost support
Fitch has raised its 2026 iron ore price forecast to $95/mt, up from a previous estimate of $90/mt. The upward revision reflects higher production costs, which are expected to provide structural support for prices.
However, the agency noted that current price levels above $100/mt are unlikely to be sustained. Prices are expected to moderate as supply increases and inventories at Chinese ports build up.
Fitch has also revised its medium-term outlook upward, projecting iron ore prices at $85/mt in 2027, $80/mt in 2028 and stabilizing at $75/mt in 2029.
Coking coal outlook raised after supply disruption
For coking coal, Fitch has raised its 2026 price assumption to $190/mt, from a previous estimate of $180/mt. The increase is mainly attributed to the strong prices recorded in early 2026, following supply disruptions caused by a cyclone in Australia, a key exporting region.
Despite the strong start to the year, Fitch expects prices to gradually decline from the second quarter, as supply conditions normalize.
The agency maintained its longer-term outlook, forecasting coking coal prices at $180/mt for 2027-28 and remaining at $180/mt in 2029.
Market outlook - short-term strength, medium-term easing
Overall, Fitch’s updated assumptions point to a firm short-term outlook for steelmaking raw materials, supported by cost pressures and temporary supply constraints.
At the same time, the agency expects fundamentals to normalize, with rising supply and stable demand likely to cap further price increases in the medium term.