Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Thursday 24 April 2025
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World's Largest Miner BHP Quietly Prepares For CEO Succession - BHP Group (NYSE:BHP)

The world's largest miner, BHP Group BHP, is reportedly preparing for a leadership transition as CEO Mike Henry's tenure approaches its expected conclusion.

While no formal announcement has been made, company insiders suggested the board could initiate the succession process soon, with a potential handover in early 2026.

According to information the company's insiders shared with Bloomberg, three candidates are at the forefront of the succession process.

Geraldine Slattery, who currently oversees BHP's Australian operations, brings extensive experience, having previously managed the company's oil and gas division before its merger with Woodside.

Chief Financial Officer Vandita Pant, a former banker who joined BHP in 2016, has risen rapidly with her financial expertise. Then, there is Ragnar Udd, the commercial chief who has driven the success of BHP's copper business in the Americas.

Selecting either Slattery or Pant would mean that BHP would have its first female CEO in its 140-year history.

Henry assumed the top job in January 2020, taking over from Andrew Mackenzie, who had streamlined BHP's portfolio during a seven-year tenure. Thus, Henry's potential six-year term would align with his predecessor's.

As a company veteran of three decades, Henry previously led BHP's Australian minerals division and held key roles in operations, marketing, and technology.

Under his leadership, significant milestones have occurred, including the exit from petroleum through the Woodside merger, the simplification of BHP's dual-listed structure, and the approval of the massive Jansen potash project in Canada.

However, his boldest move, a $49 billion bid for Anglo American, ultimately collapsed when the target rejected the offer as too complex. This dealt a blow to BHP's copper growth ambition, prompting upper management to seek a solution in a joint venture with Lundin.

Henry's successor will inherit both opportunities and challenges. The firm is committing billions to expand in future-facing commodities like copper and potash while maintaining iron ore as its core business.

Still, mining capex is notoriously high, and with nearly $20 billion of debt on the balance sheet, the company is already near the upper limit of its debt targets.

The iron ore business, which delivered 290 million tons in 2024, faces particular headwinds. Analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast prices could slump to $84 per ton by late 2025 amid oversupply concerns and softening Chinese demand, while BMI anticipates the oversupply could continue till the end of the decade.


https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44947180/the-worlds-largest-miner-quietly-prepares-for-ceo-succession

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Macro

US Treasury chief expects China tariff impasse to de-escalate

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a closed-door event that he anticipates a tariff war between Washington and Beijing to de-escalate. Photo: Luis ROBAYO / AFP/File

The trade standoff between Washington and Beijing is not sustainable, US Treasury Scott Bessent said Tuesday, predicting the tit-for-tat tariff war would de-escalate soon.

Speaking at a closed-door event hosted by JPMorgan Chase, Bessent said the enormous tariffs the world's two biggest economies placed on each other's imports amounted to a reciprocal trade embargo.

Bessent was referring to new duties Washington and Beijing have imposed this year.

Since Donald Trump's White House return in January, the United States has slapped additional tariffs of 145 percent on many products from China.

These include duties initially imposed over China's alleged role in the fentanyl supply chain and later, over practices Washington deemed as unfair.

Beijing has responded with sweeping counter tariffs of 125 percent on US goods, in retaliation against Washington's latest salvo.

Bessent told the event Tuesday that he expects a de-escalation in the near future, according to a person who was in the room.

He noted that the trade embargo now involves both sides.

Such a development should bring markets some relief, he added at the event, which was not open to media.

Wall Street's major indexes jumped after a news report on Bessent's comments at the event, which took place on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank's Spring Meetings.

'Doing very well'

Bessent said there is much to be done at the end of the day with Beijing. But he noted the need for fair trade and said that China needs to rebalance its economy.

The Treasury chief stressed that the goal is not to decouple with China, adding that Washington wants to stay engaged -- in a manner it considers more fair.

He noted that container bookings between both countries have slumped recently as trade tensions heated up.

Bessent acknowledged that negotiations with China will likely be tough, however, although reiterating that neither side believes the current situation can carry on indefinitely.

On Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Washington is "doing very well in respect to a potential trade deal with China."

"The president and the administration are setting the stage for a deal," she added, adding that "the ball is moving in the right direction."

As global finance ministers and central bankers converge in Washington this week, all eyes are on the progress of trade talks on the sidelines of the meetings as countries grapple with Trump's new and wide-ranging tariffs.

Source: AFP


https://www.tuko.co.ke/business-economy/586693-us-treasury-chief-expects-china-tariff-impasse-de-escalate/

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Oil and Gas

Iran: New sanctions show US 'lack of goodwill' in talks with Tehran


Iran has strongly condemned new “illegal” US sanctions against Tehran, saying they contradict Washington’s claims of willingness to negotiate with the Islamic Republic.

The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Tuesday designated an Iranian businessman identified as Seyed Asadoollah Emamjomeh and his corporation for their role in exports of Iran’s crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Thursday the new sanctions indicate the “lack of goodwill and seriousness” on the part of the US which is about to hold new indirect negotiations with Iran on Saturday.

They are also “a clear sign of Washington's hostile approach toward the Iranian people and its disregard for the rule of law and human rights,” he added.

“The imposition of unilateral sanctions against the Iranian nation is an arbitrary and illegal act that contradicts fundamental principles of international law,” Baghaei said.

“The US must be held accountable for the gross human rights violations resulting from these criminal actions."

Baghaei said Washington’s use of sanctions as a tool for political pressure on developing countries violates fundamental principles of the UN Charter and international law.

Such measures, he said, undermine the right to development and in many cases are considered "an example of crime against humanity".

The new sanctions are the seventh such action taken by the US government against Iran since February 4, when US President Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum ordering a campaign of maximum pressure on the Islamic Republic.

The sanctions come despite the fact that Iran and the US have held two rounds of talks to settle disputes about Tehran’s nuclear program. The indirect talks started earlier this month in Oman’s capital, Muscat, and continued over the weekend in Italy’s Rome.

Top representatives from Iran and the US are scheduled to meet again on Saturday in Muscat to review technical negotiations between their experts that will start on Wednesday in Rome.


https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/04/23/746695/Iran-Foreign-Ministry-spokesman-condemn-US-new-sanctions-bullying-illegal-negotiations-peaceful-nuclear-program

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Serbia's NIS oil company seeks third sanctions waiver from US


BELGRADE (Reuters) -Serbian oil company NIS, majority-owned by Russian Gazprom Neft and Gazprom, has asked the U.S. for a third waiver from sanctions which could cut its crude supply, it said on Wednesday. NIS operates a single oil refinery in Serbia with annualcapacity of 4.8 million tons and covers most of the Balkan country's needs.

The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)initially placed sanctions on Russia's oil sector on January 10,and gave Gazprom Neft 45 days to exit ownership of NIS.

NIS has so far secured two waivers, with the second one set to expire on April 28.

"The goal of this request is to enable the company to operate smoothly after April 28," NIS said in a statement on its website.

On March 14 NIS also submitted a request to the U.S. Treasury Department for its removal from the sanctions list, it said.

OFAC first delayed sanctions for NIS for 30 days on February 27 to March 28 to allow the company to find a solution with the Russian companies.

On February 26, Gazprom Neft transferred stakes of around 5.15% in NIS to Gazprom in an attempt to ward off sanctions.

Gazprom Neft owns 44.85% of NIS, while Gazprom has 11.3%. The Serbian government holds 29.87% of stakes, with small shareholders accounting for the rest.

NIS imports about 80% of its needs through Croatia's pipeline operator Janaf. The remainder is covered by its own crude oil production in Serbia.

(Reporting by Aleksandar Vasovic; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)


https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/serbias-nis-oil-company-seeks-121335601.html

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BP Faces Potential Share Buyback Cuts Amid Oil Price Pressures

BP is facing increasing scrutiny from investors and analysts amid concerns that the energy giant may be forced to scale back or suspend its share buyback programs if oil prices fail to recover. The company has already reduced its guidance for first-quarter share buybacks to between $750 million and $1 billion, significantly lower than in previous periods, pointing to a potential annual buyback range of $3 billion to $4 billion. This is in stark contrast to rivals like Shell, which remains committed to robust buybacks, even if oil prices dip to $50 a barrel.

Analysts from UBS, RBC, and Bank of America suggest that BP’s ability to maintain its current pace of shareholder returns is heavily dependent on oil price trends. UBS anticipates a drop in BP’s quarterly buybacks to around $500 million after the first quarter. RBC has gone further, warning that BP may need to suspend all buybacks next year if Brent crude falls to $60 a barrel. Bank of America projects a reduction in buybacks to $2.5 billion for the year if prices hover at $65, with a complete suspension also possible at $60.

The pressure on BP is amplified by its relatively higher debt levels compared to peers. This financial leverage has led to more investor inquiries about the sustainability of BP’s capital return policies than those of other major oil companies. In a recent strategy update, BP reaffirmed its commitment to returning 30-40% of operating cash flow to shareholders via a combination of dividends and share repurchases, even as it cuts costs by $4-$5 billion annually and looks to bolster cash flow through new projects and a refining business revival.

In the February update, BP also revised its oil and gas price assumptions for the mid-term, expecting Brent crude to average $71.5 to $74.4 per barrel from 2025 to 2027 and U.S. benchmark natural gas prices to range between $4.1 and $4.3 per million British thermal units. This forecast significantly exceeds current market prices, suggesting that the company is banking on a recovery to meet its financial targets.

As BP prepares to report its first-quarter earnings on April 29, all eyes will be on whether its cost-cutting and project ramp-ups can offset the headwinds from weaker commodity prices and restore investor confidence.


https://beijingtimes.com/business/2025/04/23/bp-faces-potential-share-buyback-cuts-amid-oil-price-pressures/

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Trump Emergency Order Accelerates Oil and Gas Permitting

By Irina Slav - Apr 24, 2025, 1:07 AM CDT

  • The Trump administration has reduced the approval time for new oil and gas projects to a maximum of 28 days using an emergency procedure.
  • The new procedures also cover other energy sources and critical minerals, with the stated goal of bolstering energy security and national competitiveness.
  • These actions have drawn criticism and are expected to face legal challenges regarding compliance with established regulatory processes.

The Trump administration has shortened the approval procedure for new oil and gas projects to just 28 days—at most—from several years under the national energy emergency that the White House declared earlier this year.

The new “emergency permitting procedures”, per the Department of the Interior, will cover not just oil and gas but uranium and critical minerals as well. The full list also includes coal, biofuels, geothermal energy, and kinetic hydropower.

“The United States cannot afford to wait,” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said. “President Trump has made it clear that our energy security is national security, and these emergency procedures reflect our unwavering commitment to protecting both.”

“We are cutting through unnecessary delays to fast-track the development of American energy and critical minerals—resources that are essential to our economy, our military readiness, and our global competitiveness,” Burgum also said.

The Trump administration’s focus on developing all energy segments with the exception of wind has frustrated the transition advocacy and technology sector considerably, with Reuters reporting the climate NGO industry was already hiring lawyers to take the fight over hydrocarbons and climate regulations to court.

“They really are kicking it into high gear now,” Dan Goldbeck, director of regulatory policy at conservative think tank American Action Forum, told Reuters. “They are trying to push some of these legal doctrines a bit to see if they can implement a new policy framework.”

The publication noted that most of the Trump administration’s moves in the energy area test the limits of the Administrative Procedure Act from 1946, which stipulates that federal agencies must publish notices of regulatory proposals and final regulations, and include an option for public comments on these. This may well be the reason why President Trump is using the emergency option to pass relevant regulatory changes.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Trump-Emergency-Order-Accelerates-Oil-and-Gas-Permitting.html

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Precious Metals

Canadian Barrick Gold intends to sell Hemlo gold mine

The Canadian mining company Barrick Gold Corp. plans to sell the last gold mine in Canada amid record gold prices and renewed interest in mining in North America. This is reported in Barrick's press release.

In early April 2025, Barrick engaged Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce as a consultant to find buyers and conduct a tender for the sale of the Hemlo gold mine in the Canadian province of Ontario. In 2024, Hemlo produced 143,000 ounces of gold (3.5% of Barrick's total gold production for the year).

In the case of the sale of Hemlo, Barrick will be left without gold mining assets in Canada. Barrick reduced its presence in Canada after the merger with Randgold Resources Ltd, focused on Africa, and transferred some employees from Toronto in order to decentralize operations. In addition, Barrick sold a stake in a gold mining project in Alaska for $1 billion and intends to sell the Tongon gold mine in Côte d'Ivoire.

Barrick's strategy is similar to that of the world's largest gold producer, Newmont Corp., which raised $4.3 billion through the sale of some non-core assets.

Barrick Gold Corporation is a Canadian mining company and one of the largest gold mining companies. Barrick's asset portfolio includes 13 gold and 3 active copper mines in 18 countries, including the USA, Canada, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Tanzania, etc. The headquarters is located in Toronto (Canada).


https://www.akm.ru/eng/news/canadian-barrick-gold-intends-to-sell-hemlo-gold-mine/

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Base Metals

Panama Rejects New Mining Contract with First Quantum Minerals

The government of Panama has decided against offering a new mining contract to Canada's First Quantum Minerals, according to President Jose Raul Mulino. This decision comes amidst a prolonged dispute that has left the company's $10 billion Cobre Panama copper mine inactive since late 2023. Source.

Speaking at an industry event in Panama City, President Mulino emphasized that while the future of the mine remains uncertain, he is open to forming an association with First Quantum. However, he categorically stated that there will be no legal contract for mining operations, highlighting that any new agreement would require approval from the national assembly, which currently does not support such a deal. Mulino proposed a structure ensuring that the mine is recognized as belonging to Panama and its people.

He further noted that the potential closure of the mine could take up to 15 years due to its scale. Before operations were halted, Cobre Panama, Central America's largest open-pit copper mine, produced over 330,000 tonnes of copper in 2023. The mine was poised to become a 100-million-tonne-per-year operation by the end of 2024, placing it among the world's largest copper producers. Previously, Cobre accounted for approximately 5% of Panama's GDP.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform


https://www.indexbox.io/blog/panamas-decision-on-first-quantum-minerals-mining-contract/

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Exclusive-Vedanta weighs US listing to raise $1 billion for Zambian copper assets


By Felix Njini

JOHANNESBURG(Reuters) - Vedanta Resources, is considering a U.S. public listing for its Zambian unit Konkola Copper Mines as one of its options to try to raise about $1 billion for mine development, three sources familiar with the details, told Reuters.

The miner, owned by Indian billionaire Anil Agarwal, has hired Barclays and Citigroup to advise on the plans for an initial public offering, said the sources, who declined to be named due to sensitivity around the discussions.

Vedanta is considering New York as one of the options to list KCM, as the Zambian unit is known, the sources said.

They said the discussions were at an early stage and a timeline had yet to be finalised.

A spokesperson for Vedanta Resources declined to comment beyond saying various options were under consideration.

"We continue to evaluate a range of financing options, including internal accruals, debt instruments, and equity options, as we invest and grow our operations across the world," the spokesperson said.

Citigroup declined to comment, while Barclays did not respond to emailed questions from Reuters.

Vedanta has said it wants to raise capital as part of its plans to gradually increase copper output to about 300,000 metric tons per year over the next five years.

KCM's output dwindled as Agarwal fought a protracted legal battle to reclaim the assets after former Zambian president Edgar Lungu's administration forced KCM into provisional liquidation. It had accused Vedanta of failing to invest to boost copper production.

Agarwal regained control of the copper mines, smelter and refinery last year.

Vedanta has since established a U.S.-based entity, Global Transition Resources Inc., which it said in a post on Linkedin produces copper, cobalt and gold in Africa.

Reuters could not immediately establish whether Global Transition Resources would be the entity to house the assets in question in the event of a U.S. listing.

Copper, with uses from power to construction, is in demand from the electric vehicle sector and new applications such as data centres for artificial intelligence.

Vedanta said KCM holds one of the world's highest grade deposits of copper, together with reserves of about 400,000 tons of cobalt, another mineral needed for the transition to cleaner energy.

Since recovering the assets from the Zambian government, Vedanta has secured short-term financing and started paying debts to local creditors, including bills for supplies of electricity, which had built up during the period. It also increased spending on the communities surrounding the mines.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-vedanta-weighs-us-listing-121447124.html

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China alumina exports surge to seven-year high as surplus widens

China’s growing glut of alumina pushed exports to their second-highest level ever in March, with shipments expected to remain elevated for several more months.

Overseas sales of the raw material for smelting aluminum more than doubled from a year earlier to 300,000 tons, according to the latest Chinese customs data. That figure was exceeded only in October 2018, when a refinery curtailment in Brazil and US sanctions on United Co. Rusal International squeezed the global market.

China’s alumina market has been on a roller-coaster of late. Prices nearly doubled last year before crashing as a wave of new capacity was brought online, forcing the industry to seek foreign buyers.

Unlike other Chinese metals, including steel and aluminum, that have drawn scrutiny from trading partners after the country’s exports swamped world markets, alumina sales are contained to only a few main buyers.

Russia remains the biggest destination as its aluminum producers continue to grapple with a shortage of feedstock since the invasion of Ukraine. The country accounted for 48% of China’s exports last month. Rusal, its biggest aluminum maker, signed a landmark deal in 2023 with a Chinese plant specifically to plug the gap in supply.

Indonesia, which hosts Chinese smelters, and the United Arab Emirates took 19% and 23%, respectively.

Traders shipped extra alumina overseas after a plunge in domestic prices widened the window for arbitrage, said Zhang Meng, an analyst with consultancy AZ China Ltd. Volumes are likely to remain elevated at between 150,000 and 200,000 tons in coming months, he said.

The Chinese government, meanwhile, is trying to tackle the surplus by curbing excessive investment, including a ban on new plants in heavily polluted areas. The directive mirrors similar guidance on raw materials given to China’s copper smelters, another industry contending with chronic overcapacity.

The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association last week criticized elements of the alumina sector’s blind expansion. The industry body said China has about 15 million tons of capacity under construction, and more than 20 million tons at the planning stage. Those expansions would significantly add to China’s existing 107 million tons of annual capacity.


https://www.mining.com/web/china-alumina-exports-surge-to-seven-year-high-as-surplus-widens/

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US government grants fast-track status to Resolution copper project


The US government has awarded fast-track status to the controversial Resolution copper mining project, jointly owned by Rio Tinto (55%) and BHP (45%) in Arizona. The project has faced significant delays over the years due to environmental concerns and opposition from indigenous communities.

The Resolution copper mining project (Resolution) is among 10 projects to be granted “FAST-41” status, a law signed by former President Obama to streamline approval processes.

The proposed underground mine hosts a copper deposit located between 1,500m and 2,130m below the surface, with an estimated average grade of 1.5% copper. It stands to become North America’s largest copper mine, capable of producing 18Mt of copper over 40 years (~450ktpy), potentially meeting up to 25% of annual US copper demand. Rio Tinto aims to allocate all the copper produced at Resolution for US consumption. The company currently operates Utah’s Kennecott copper mine and smelter, the output of which is also consumed within the USA. The other major smelter in the USA is operated by Freeport-McMoRan.

The mine has been marred by delays for years as it faces opposition from local indigenous groups that state the project is on sacred ground. Earlier this week, a group led by the San Carlos Apache Tribe filed a petition at the US Court of Appeals challenging a ruling that could allow the mine’s development to proceed. Environmentalists have also raised alarms about the potential ecological impact of the mine, including water usage, pollution risks, and habitat destruction.

In 2023, the US Department of Energy (DoE) added copper to its critical materials list for energy applications, and in February 2025, President Trump initiated a Section 232 investigation into US copper imports. In 2024, the US imported approximately 890kt of refined copper, a 16% y-o-y increase. Imports account for around 50% of US copper consumption, with about 80% coming from Chile, Canada, Peru, and Mexico. Notably, the development of the mine would likely necessitate the construction of additional smelting and refining facilities.

The development of Resolution could eventually alleviate copper concentrate tightness, which has been exacerbated in recent years by supply constraints in Chile and Peru and the shutdown of Cobre Panama. However, even with fast-track status, the project is unlikely to begin operations before the middle of the next decade.


https://projectblue.com/blue/news-analysis/1193/us-government-grants-fast-track-status-to-resolution-copper-project-

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Peru’s Antamina halts mining after manager dies in accident

Peru's Antamina hopes for mine extension approval by early 2023, CEO says

Antamina mine, Peru. Image from Glencore.

Operations at Peru’s Antamina, one of the world’s biggest copper mines, remains halted after an accident claimed the life of a senior manager and injured another employee.

The Antamina copper and zinc mine — owned by BHP Group, Glencore Plc, Teck Resources Ltd. — is working with Peruvian authorities to investigate the Tuesday incident, the operating company said in a statement.

Senior operations manager Edwin Colque Calisaya died in an accident at the Yanacancha area of the open-pit mine in the Andes Mountains north of Lima, Antamina said, without giving details. Photos posted on social media showed a passenger vehicle crushed by a giant haul truck.

The incident triggered a full safety shutdown, which was still in effect on Wednesday, a company spokesperson said. An extended stoppage at a mine that churned out 435,000 metric tons last year could further tighten global supplies of semi-processed copper known as concentrate.

In February, Peruvian authorities approved a key permit allowing a $2 billion extension at Antamina to proceed. The permit comes as the No. 2 copper-producing nation faces a dearth of new projects that threatens to constrain future production growth.

(By James Attwood)


https://www.mining.com/web/perus-antamina-copper-mine-on-lockdown-after-manager-killed/

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Steel

Hyundai Steel Faces Investor Backlash Over $6B U.S. Expansion Amid Tariff Uncertainty


Hyundai Steel is under pressure after announcing a $6 billion U.S. investment, part of Hyundai Motor Group's broader $21 billion pledge made at the White House in March. The move, seen as politically motivated amid evolving U.S. trade policy and tariffs, triggered a 21.2% drop in Hyundai Steel’s share price, outpacing declines in rival POSCO and the broader Korean market.

During a call with investors, Hyundai admitted the plan lacked detailed funding clarity but cited urgency due to fast-moving U.S. tariff developments and limited domestic political support following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment. Executives hoped the investment would bolster South Korea’s position in upcoming tariff talks with Washington.

However, concerns remain. Investors questioned the project's timing, its location in Louisiana—far from Hyundai Motor’s existing U.S. plants—and whether demand will justify capacity to supply steel for 1.8 million vehicles annually. The investment comes as Hyundai Steel struggles with weak domestic demand, labor strikes, and an influx of low-cost Chinese steel.

Hyundai plans to fund half the project through borrowing, while POSCO may participate as an equity partner. The company maintains the investment aligns with growing U.S. demand for high-quality, low-carbon steel and is independent of tariff negotiations. Still, trade experts suggest that better coordination with the South Korean government could have strengthened its leverage.

Hyundai Motor and Kia, heavily reliant on U.S. sales, have courted former President Trump, who recently imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars with no exemptions for Korean products. While Hyundai claims the investment targets sustainable steel, many workers in South Korea remain uneasy, fearing underinvestment in local operations as factories face shutdowns.

As talks with U.S. officials continue, the strategic impact of Hyundai’s bold move remains uncertain.


https://www.econotimes.com/Hyundai-Steel-Faces-Investor-Backlash-Over-6B-US-Expansion-Amid-Tariff-Uncertainty-1708238

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Iron Ore

Iron ore prices approach psychological barrier

Chinese iron ore prices for Fe 62 increased by $3/t since April 7 – to $99/t CFR Qingdao by April 20, according to Kallanish. On the Singapore Exchange, futures contracts for May delivery were also trading at $99/t.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, futures for September delivery were offered at $98/t. This proves that market participants do not expect prices to rise above the current level in the medium term.


Steel billets in China fell by $18/t to $403/t EXW Tangshan from March 26 to April 18. At the same time, there was an increase in imported iron ore supply. In March, shipments from Australia’s Port Hedland increased by 1.15% y/y and 36.73% m/m – to 50.66 million tons.

In the face of declining prices for finished steel products, coupled with an increase in iron ore supplies from Australia, the rise in price indicates an increase in government support for the Chinese steel industry. In this way, the government is compensating steel mills for the decline in margins, stimulating further growth in steel production.

The expansion of state support for the main consumption sectors in China is indicated by the April decline in stocks of flat and long products, including hot-rolled coils and rebar. Stocks were declining both in the warehouses of traders and steel mills, etc. This stimulated demand but did not affect price dynamics.

In this regard, Premier Li Keqiang’s statement on April 17 emphasizing “the need for timely and targeted policy measures to help guide market expectations” is indicative.

The export price of high-grade Fe 65 iron ore in Brazil remained unchanged at $110/t CFR China from April 11 to 18. Since the beginning of the month, the supply of local producers has decreased by $5/t.

As reported, in January-March 2025, Ukraine reduced iron ore exports by 5.7% y/y – to 8.49 million tons. In monetary terms, the figure fell by 20.3% to $687.79 million. China is traditionally the largest consumer of Ukrainian iron ore.

As GMK Center reported earlier, Oleksandr Kalenkov, President of Ukrmetprom, said that there are serious risks for Ukraine’s mining and metals sector due to the delay in export VAT refunds to Ferrexpo.

According to him, the failure of the State Tax Service to refund VAT in March has already resulted in a reduction in production and exports of Ferrexpo, one of the key players in the Ukrainian steel industry.


https://gmk.center/en/news/iron-ore-prices-approach-psychological-barrier/amp/

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