Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Tuesday 12 May 2026
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Commodity Intelligence - Ahead of Lunch With Sir Ben Wallace Today

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Macro

Stocks Up and Dollar Steady Ahead of US-China Meeting, Iran Talks Hit Stalemate

By Sinéad Carew and Amanda Cooper

NEW YORK/LONDON, May 11 (Reuters) - Stocks inched higher while the dollar was little changed on Monday as investors awaited a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while ‌oil prices rose as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran appeared to stall.

Trump on Sunday rejected Iran's response to ‌a U.S. proposal for peace talks to end the war in the Middle East, saying Tehran's demands were "totally unacceptable."

Iranian media reported that the plan stressed the need for an end to the war on all fronts and lifting of sanctions on Tehran, along with reparations and recognition of Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy conduit.

The Middle East is expected to be a key part of the agenda later this week in Trump and Xi's first face-to-face talks in more than six months, said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells ‌Fargo Investment Institute, adding that investors were cautiously ⁠waiting for the meeting.

"It's all about the strait and when it's going to open," said Wren. "There's some optimism that China will have some influence in resolving the strait issue."

On Wall Street at 10:58 a.m. ⁠ET (1458 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 22.37 points, or 0.05%, to 49,632.29, the S&P 500 rose 19.63 points, or 0.27%, to 7,418.56 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 45.81 points, or 0.18%, to 26,293.54.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 3.23 points, or 0.29%, to 1,108.86.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.05%.

In currencies, the dollar retreated from earlier highs after Trump's rebuff of Iran's response kept concerns about an extended war ‌intact.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.11% to 97.90, with the euro down 0.04% at $1.178.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.22% to 156.99.

Sterling strengthened 0.03% to $1.3636 as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer attempted to quell a rebellion within his ruling Labour party following a mauling in last week's local elections.

In energy markets, oil prices rose on supply fears as the Strait of Hormuz stayed largely closed.

U.S. crude rose 2.35% to $97.66 a barrel and Brent rose ‌to $103.80 per barrel, up 2.47% on the day.

U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on concerns about high inflation as oil prices rose.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 3 basis points to 4.394%, from 4.364% late on Friday while the 30-year bond yield rose 2.3 basis points to 4.9699%.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/share-futures-ease-dollar-gains-225731200.html

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Who’s Going To Fold First In The U.S.–Iran High Stakes Game?

By Simon Watkins - May 11, 2026, 4:00 PM CDT

  • U.S. intelligence reportedly believes Iran can withstand the current naval blockade for roughly 90–120 days before facing severe economic collapse.
  • A future U.S.-Iran peace deal is expected to resemble a tougher version of the 2015 nuclear agreement, with Washington demanding a 12–15 year halt to uranium enrichment
  • Beyond the nuclear issue, the conflict is increasingly about strategic control of global energy chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, as the U.S. seeks to limit China’s influence over critical oil and gas transit routes.

As in all poker games, the player with the deepest pockets will ultimately win if he is prepared to stay at the table, and so with the high-stakes game of the U.S.-Iran War. The contents of a confidential CIA report relayed last week assessed that Iran can endure the current U.S. naval blockade in and around the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf for at least 90 to 120 days, but after that it would face economic collapse. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to benefit from dramatically increased oil production and prices on the higher historical side, with the only downside for President Donald Trump being higher gasoline prices, but these are manipulable back down to more publicly acceptable levels before the November mid-term elections if needs be. Mercurial he may be, but stupid he is not, which is why Washington has largely declined to rise to the bait of further attacks against its naval assets in the Strait, as orchestrated by the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. However, when a peace deal is reached between the U.S. and Iran, what will it look like?

As it stands in the rotation of play, Tehran has indicated that the most recent U.S. 14-Point Peace Proposal is unacceptable, and Trump has done the same for Iran’s counter-proposal. The basis of the U.S. position is likely to remain very close to the original tougher version of former President Barack Obama’s ‘Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’ (JCPOA, or colloquially ‘the nuclear deal’), a senior Washington-based legal source who works closely with the U.S. Treasury exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. That version was ultimately softened due to pressure from France and Germany before the final version was agreed on 14 July 2015, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. According to the source, it was always this hardline Obama version that Trump sought to enforce, and his withdrawal of the U.S. from the JCPOA in May 2018 was intended to bring Iran back to the table under those tougher terms. There have been some changes to the original Obama version, focused on preventing Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon, as was the key premise for the launch of the U.S./Israel-Iran War on 28 February. This has shifted in recent days from Iran never being allowed to enrich uranium and handing over all such material in stock (roughly 440kg of 60% enriched material) to an independent body. Washington now wants Iran to halt all uranium enrichment for a minimum of 12 to 15 years, although the demand for it to hand over its already enriched material remains in place. Iran, on the other hand, continues to assert that uranium enrichment is a ‘sovereign right’ under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), rejecting any permanent ban, but again in recent days it has counter-offered a five-year suspension. Its Foreign Ministry has also stated that its enriched uranium ‘will not be transferred anywhere outside Iran’, but it has offered to dilute its stockpile down to lower, non-weapons-grade levels under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This would make it useless for the quick ‘breakout’ to a nuclear weapon.

The main concession the U.S. is continuing to offer in return is the phased lifting of sanctions on Iran, and the graduated release of billions of dollars’ worth of Tehran’s frozen assets. Again, this echoes the same ideas as both the harder and softer versions of Obama’s JCPOA versions. The agreed JCPOA of 2015 saw sanctions lifted in stages over a longer timeline, but the deal did quickly unblock around US$50-100 billion in Iranian oil revenue that was stuck in foreign banks. The current Trump proposal has a similarly graduated lifting of sanctions, beginning after Iranian-imposed restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are lifted. But the unblocking of frozen assets would be staged over a longer period, and linked to verifiable progress made by Iran on key issues, most notably the handover of its enriched uranium stockpile. This is expected to release between US$20-25 billion in stages, with further talks down the line on releasing more. For its part, Iran — and one of its key officials, Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf — have demanded at least US$120 billion in assets to be released before further serious negotiations can begin. Unlike the 2015 JCPOA, whose ‘snapback mechanism’ to reimpose United Nations (UN) sanctions took weeks to reimpose, Trump’s administration has included a ‘finger on the trigger’ in its 14-Point Proposal that allows the U.S. to immediately resume military action (including the Strait of Hormuz/Persian Gulf blockade) without needing to go through the UN if the subsequent negotiations collapse.

That said, Trump is never likely to fully relinquish the U.S.’s ability to control the vital Strait of Hormuz/Persian Gulf transit route again, according to the Washington-based source. As analysed recently by OilPrice.com, this is in large part a function of Washington’s desire to deny China the control over key global transit routes that it enjoyed before the current U.S.-Iran conflict. This was borne of necessity on Beijing’s part, as it needs to ensure free movement of the oil and gas supplies that it needs to power its economic growth, and in which it is deficient. To secure this access, China has spent years building its influence over key energy hubs in the Middle East through the mechanism of its ‘Belt and Road Initiative’, as also fully detailed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Comprehensive cooperation agreements based on this template have been struck with numerous Middle Eastern powers — including Iran — to secure access to oil and gas fields in exchange for vast Chinese investments, often involving huge loans from Beijing secured against key strategic assets.

One of the most significant of these global transit points remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which up to 30% of the world’s oil is transported and about 20% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG). Another is the Bab al-Mandab Strait, host to 10-15% of the world’s seaborne oil shipments, and also under the effective control of Iran through its Yemen-based Houthi proxies. As recent events have shown, control over these two critical arteries of global energy trade confers immense geopolitical leverage on whichever country holds it. Understandably from the U.S. position, it cannot be Iran that does so on the ground, with China pulling the strings behind the scenes. This effort by the U.S. to secure key global pressure points at China’s expense also includes the Greenland–Iceland–UK Gap, the Panama Canal, and the U.S.–Indonesia ‘Major Defense Cooperation Partnership (MDCP)’ signed on 13 April. As highlighted by Macquarie Group’s New York-based global FX and rates strategist, Thierry Wizman, the latter of these initiatives grants Washington enhanced monitoring and contingency-operation rights over the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. He adds that the U.S.–Morocco ‘2026–2036 Defense Cooperation Roadmap’ formalised long-term U.S. access to Moroccan facilities for logistics, training, and operational coordination, providing Washington with a reliable contingent foothold on the Strait of Gibraltar.

A potential sticking point for Trump in continuing the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz/Persian Gulf has been concerns over the economic, and resulting political, effects of high oil prices on the price of gasoline. Historical data highlights that every US$10 per barrel change in the oil price results in around a 25-30 cent change in the price of a gallon of gasoline, and for every 1 cent per gallon that the average price of gasoline rises, more than US$1 billion or so per year in consumer spending is lost — causing economic damage, as further analysed in my latest book. Politically, since 1896, the sitting U.S. president has won re-election 11 times out of 11 if the economy was not in recession within two years of an upcoming election. However, sitting U.S. presidents who went into a re-election campaign with the economy in recession won only once out of seven occasions.

Trump may not ultimately seek another term as President, but he does not want his political legacy to be defined by a failed Iran adventure, as he believes Jimmy Carter’s was. The Republican Party will also want to optimise their chances for another of their members to be in the top job, which means keeping gasoline prices — and therefore, oil prices — at the low end of historical averages. However, a potential remedy to this is available to Trump if required, in that he could order export controls on U.S. crude, including the 2-3 million barrels per day of extra production recorded since February. The authority for him to do this lies in the ‘Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2016’, which gives the President authority to impose export restrictions for up to one year in a national emergency or for national security purposes. Given these factors, there is little need for Trump to make any concessions to Iran any time soon.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Whos-Going-To-Fold-First-In-The-USIran-High-Stakes-Game.html

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Oil

Indian State Oil Refiners Eye Modest Fuel Price Hike as Losses Mount

Indian state refiners are expecting a modest increase in retail fuel prices within days, as the government seeks to balance the impact of the ten-week war in the Persian Gulf and the needs of consumers.

Processors anticipate a hike of about 5 rupees a liter for diesel and gasoline, to help mitigate an estimated loss of 10 billion rupees ($105 million) a day on fuel sales, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue.

While such a move would be well below the 15-to-20 rupee rise needed to meaningfully curb the losses, it is acknowledged that a sharper hike could strain the economy and prove to be politically difficult, the people said.

India crude oil basket prices

The world’s third-largest oil consumer has been hit hard by the Iran war, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz curbing flows of vital energy imports , boosting crude-oil costs and triggering shortages of cooking gas. Reflecting the challenges, Modi appealed at the weekend for citizens to cut their fuel use and travel in a bid to limit the fall-out.

Modi was commenting after the conclusion of a series of state-level elections that broadly bolstered the position of his Bharatiya Janata Party, handing him an opportunity to tackle the politically difficult task of raising costs for millions of people and businesses across the country.

“This situation can’t be sustained for long,” said Prashant Vasisht, senior vice president at ratings agency ICRA. “At some point, oil-marketing companies and government have to take a call on raising fuel prices.”

Requests for comment from Indian Oil Corp. Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. — all state-owned — did not get an immediate reply. In addition, the oil ministry declined to comment.

India’s fuel market remains highly controlled. State-owned refiners account for about 90% of sales sites, and the pump prices they charge are approved by the central government. At the same time, local rates can differ because of variable state-level taxes.

While state-run refiners managed to contain losses in March given they had lower-cost inventories, their position deteriorated in April and May because of higher feedstock costs and static pump prices, the people said.


https://m.economictimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/indian-state-oil-refiners-eye-modest-fuel-price-hike-as-losses-mount-crude-prices-indian-oil-bpcl-hpcl/articleshow/131011945.cms

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Oil and Gas

Strait of Hormuz Closure has Become a "Payday" for Africa's Richest Man as Fortune Swells Over $35 Billion

Dangote storms back into the $30 billion club after momentarily falling below the mark

  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to higher refining margins and increased demand for alternative energy sources, benefiting Aliko Dangote's refinery business.
  • Fertiliser and jet fuel prices have surged due to global supply disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions, particularly Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Dangote plans to more than double his Lagos refinery's capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, aiming for output comparable to India’s Reliance Industries within 30 months.
  • Nigeria’s fuel security has improved due to the refinery, but much of Africa remains dependent on imported fuel, exposing it to risks from Middle Eastern conflicts.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has turned into a “payday” for Aliko Dangote, as global energy disruptions push up refining margins and increase demand for alternative supply sources.

According to a senior executive, fertiliser prices have doubled while jet fuel margins have widened significantly amid tightening global supply. Dangote told the Financial Times: “You can see all the other oil companies, their profitability has doubled. So you don’t expect us to do less.”

The remarks come amid heightened global energy volatility driven by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has rippled across global markets, including Africa.

Refinery expansion

Dangote is also accelerating plans to more than double capacity at his Lagos refinery to 1.4 million barrels per day, noting that within 30 months it would reach the equivalent of 10% of US refining capacity. He added that the expansion would place his operation on par with India’s Reliance Industries in output scale.

The refinery has strengthened domestic fuel security in Nigeria, with analysts saying local supply conditions have improved despite global price volatility.

Across Africa, reliance on imported fuel remains high, particularly in East and Southern regions, where about 75% of refined products are sourced from the Middle East. This leaves many economies vulnerable to shocks of the Iran-Israel war.

Business Insider Africa previously reported that the refinery has been receiving a surge of inquiries as African governments scramble to secure fuel supplies amid disruptions triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran.

South Africa, for instance, is reportedly in talks for a 12-month supply agreement with Nigeria, as countries move to cushion themselves from tightening global fuel markets.


https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/strait-of-hormuz-closure-has-become-a-payday-for-africas-richest-man/f3mc56g

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Latvian Defence Minister Resigns after Ukrainian Drones Hit Oil Storage Tanks

Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds / Photo: REUTERS

Latvian Defence Minister Andris Spruds resigned after an incident involving Ukrainian drones that entered Latvia from Russia and hit oil storage tanks. Prime Minister Evika Silina said anti-drone systems had not been deployed quickly enough.

Reuters reports that on Sunday the Latvian prime minister demanded Spruds’ resignation and appointed Latvian army colonel Raivis Melnis as the new defence minister.

The incident occurred on Thursday, when two drones crossed the border from Russia and exploded at an oil storage facility in Latvia.

Following the incident, Latvia and Lithuania called on NATO to strengthen air defence systems in the Baltic region.

A police officer inspects damage to an oil tank after drones crashed at an oil depot in Rēzekne, Latvia, on May 7, 2026 / Photo: REUTERS

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on X that the drones were Ukrainian and had entered Latvia because “Russian electronic warfare deliberately diverted Ukrainian drones from their targets in Russia.”

According to Sybiha, Ukraine is also considering sending experts to help strengthen air security over the Baltic states.


https://glavnoe.in.ua/en/news-en/latvian-defence-minister-resigns-after-ukrainian-drones-hit-oil-storage-tanks

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Qatari LNG Tanker Heads to Pakistan after Crossing Strait of Hormuz

A Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker carrying more than 216,000 cubic metres of LNG has crossed the Strait of Hormuz and is heading towards Pakistan, according to ship-tracking data and government officials.

The LNG carrier Al Kharaitiyat departed Ras Laffan in Qatar last week and is expected to arrive at Port Qasim on Monday, according to Vessel Finder data. Officials said the vessel, carrying around 216,300 cubic metres of LNG, is expected to dock in Pakistan in the coming days.

Another LNG vessel, Fuwairit, carrying approximately 138,000 cubic metres of LNG, is also reported to be en route to Pakistan.

Energy sector sources said preparations for the incoming cargoes have already affected domestic gas system operations. Regasification at the floating storage unit vessel Seapeak Magellan has reportedly been reduced from 260 million cubic feet per day to 100 million cubic feet per day as authorities adjust gas flows ahead of the arrivals.

Industry sources said Al Kharaitiyat is among the world’s larger LNG carrier categories and is likely to unload cargo at the Engro Elengy Terminal, which has previously handled vessels of similar size.

Energy analysts estimated current spot LNG prices at around $16.85 per MMBtu, including freight costs, insurance charges and war-risk premiums linked to geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region.

Industry experts also warned that repeated LNG tenders followed by rejection of offers could affect trader confidence and increase future procurement costs for Pakistan-bound cargoes.

Last week, State-run Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) rejected the two lowest LNG bids submitted by BP Singapore and TotalEnergies at $17.28 and $16.98 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), respectively, against urgent tenders floated for May deliveries amid rising temperatures and increasing power demand.

PLL had floated emergency tenders on Wednesday with a 36-hour notice period for two LNG cargoes scheduled for delivery between May 12-14 and May 24-26.

The company received a total of seven bids for the two delivery windows.

For the May 12-14 cargo, BP Singapore offered $17.28 per mmBtu, PetroChina bid $17.69 and Vitol Bahrain submitted an offer of $17.84.

For the May 24-26 delivery window, TotalEnergies offered $16.98 per mmBtu, SOCAR Trading bid $17.21, PetroChina International submitted $17.49 and OQ Trading offered $18.58.

Officials said the tenders were floated after expectations emerged that tensions in the Gulf region could ease and shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz could resume.

PLL had also rejected two LNG bids for the same delivery periods last month, while accepting one cargo at $18.4 per mmBtu after securing comparatively lower offers.

Pakistan’s LNG imports had been disrupted after closure of the Strait of Hormuz following military escalation involving the United States, Israel and Iran.


https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/05/11/qatari-lng-tanker-heads-to-pakistan-after-crossing-strait-of-hormuz/

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Saudi Crude Exports to China Expected to Hit Record Low in June

Saudi Crude Exports to China Expected to Hit Record Low in June

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to China are set to decline further in June, as Chinese refiners reduce demand in response to higher prices linked to US –Iran tensions, industry sources said to Reuters.

Saudi Aramco shipped around 10 million barrels (mmbbl) to Chinese customers in May, equivalent to 333,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), according to data from intelligence trade Kpler and Reuters. This marks the lowest level on record, compared with an average of 1.39 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) exported to China in 2025.

Sources noted that major Chinese refiners, including Sinopec, Sinochem, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, have cut allocations for June. Neither Aramco nor the Chinese companies have yet commented.

Last week, Saudi Arabia set the official selling price (OSP) of Arab Light crude to Asia at a premium of $15.50 per barrel for June, down from $19.50 in May. However, the reduction was smaller than requested by some Chinese buyers, keeping Saudi crude relatively expensive.

Chinese state-owned refiners also lowered operating rates in April, citing continued disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi crude exports have fallen sharply since the outbreak of war on February 28, with shipments rerouted via the East–West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Notably, Chinese independent “teapot” refineries are the main buyers of Iranian crude, taking advantage of discounted prices despite US sanctions. The trade is largely conducted through indirect channels and rebranded shipments, making China the largest outlet for Iran’s oil exports.


https://egyptoil-gas.com/news/saudi-crude-exports-to-china-expected-to-hit-record-low-in-june/

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Alternative Energy

First Phosphate Keeps Noble Capital Analysts Bullish on Vertically Integrated Battery Materials Plan

First Phosphate keeps Noble analysts bullish on vertically integrated battery materials plan

First Phosphate keeps Noble Capital analysts bullish on vertically integrated battery materials plan Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock

First Phosphate Corp. (CSE:PHOS, OTCQX:FRSPF, FRA:KD0, OTC:FPHOY) has been awarded a repeat ‘Outperform’ rating from Noble Capital Markets analysts who pointed to what they see as a strategically well-positioned project portfolio tied to growing demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery materials and a tightening supply backdrop for high-purity phosphate.

The firm has a price target of US$1.65 on the company, above current levels of about US$1.15.

“Right time, right place, right project,” Noble wrote in a note to clients.

First Phosphate is advancing a vertically integrated strategy in the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region, with plans that span from mining development through to potential downstream production of purified phosphoric acid and cathode active material used in LFP batteries. Noble highlighted this structure as a key differentiator as demand for battery materials continues to expand.

The analysts pointed to broadening end-market demand, noting that LFP batteries are increasingly used across electric vehicles, energy storage systems, artificial intelligence data centers, and industrial applications. They also emphasized the composition of the chemistry, stating that “phosphate accounts for approximately 60% of LFP battery chemistry, while lithium accounts for only 4%.”

On the supply side, Noble stressed the limited availability of suitable feedstock, noting that only a small portion of global phosphate deposits are igneous in nature, which are typically required for higher-purity battery applications.

First Phosphate’s flagship Bégin-Lamarche Project in Quebec hosts an indicated mineral resource of 41.5 million tonnes grading 6.49% phosphorus pentoxide, along with an inferred resource of 214 million tonnes grading 6.01%.

The firm also referenced recent sector activity, including Avenir Minerals’ agreement to acquire Fox River Resources for approximately C$94.3 million. Fox River is advancing the Martison Phosphate Project in Ontario, one of the few high-grade igneous phosphate deposits in North America positioned for LFP battery supply chains.

Noble said the transaction provides additional support for its broader thesis around the strategic importance of igneous phosphate assets in North America. Following the deal, the firm noted that only a small number of publicly traded companies remain focused on this segment, including First Phosphate and Arianne Phosphate, and said First Phosphate stands out due to its emphasis on battery-grade phosphate production, infrastructure access, and its integrated development strategy.


https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/first-phosphate-keeps-noble-capital-165000870.html

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Precious Metals

Guinea’s Largest Gold Mine Posts Lower Production Despite Higher Gold Prices

Guinea’s Largest Gold Mine Posts Lower Production Despite Higher Gold Prices

  • AngloGold Ashanti reported attributable gold production of 75,000 ounces at Guinea’s Siguiri mine in the first quarter of 2026, down 6% year-on-year.
  • The company attributed the decline to lower ore-processing volumes despite improved ore grades.
  • Higher gold prices boosted quarterly revenue from the mine to $377 million, up from $221 million a year earlier.

During the first quarter of 2026, AngloGold Ashanti reported attributable production of 75,000 ounces of gold at the Siguiri mine, according to a report the company published on Friday, May 8. The performance represented a 6% year-on-year decline for the mine, in which the company holds an 85% stake.

The reported volume remained slightly below the 80,000 attributable ounces recorded during the first quarter of 2025. On a consolidated 100% basis, including the Guinean state’s 15% interest, the mine produced about 88,235 ounces between January and March, compared with 94,118 ounces a year earlier.

AngloGold Ashanti said lower ore-processing volumes caused the decline, although the site recorded improved ore grades.

At this stage, limited information allows analysts to assess the impact of the weaker quarterly performance on the mine’s full-year production trajectory following a 6% increase recorded in 2025.

Although AngloGold Ashanti does not publish detailed guidance by asset, the company targets total group production of as much as 3.1 million ounces in 2026. The target includes African mines located in Ghana, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Egypt, as well as operations in the Americas and Australia.

Despite mixed operating trends at Siguiri, rising gold prices supported the mine’s revenue generation during the quarter. The operation generated $377 million in revenue during the period, compared with $221 million a year earlier.

The Guinean state benefits from the project through royalties levied on revenue, dividends linked to its equity participation and other fiscal measures applicable to mining companies.

This article was initially published in French by Aurel Sèdjro Houenou

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de Berry Quenum


https://www.ecofinagency.com/news-industry/1105-55458-guinea-s-largest-gold-mine-posts-lower-production-despite-higher-gold-prices

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Base Metals

Rio Tinto in Talks to Increase Stake in Los Azules, Argentina


A larger stake would bolster Rio Tinto’s copper pipeline as discoveries dwindle and competition for top-tier assets intensifies. Credit: Bendix M/Shutterstock.com.

Rio Tinto is considering increasing its 17.2% stake in McEwen Copper’s Los Azules project in Argentina’s San Juan province, according to two industry sources, as reported Reuters.

The project is said to be among the world’s largest undeveloped copper projects, signalling Rio Tinto’s intent to acquire large-scale copper assets amidst rising demand driven by data centres and the clean energy transition.

Owned through Nuton, its copper technology venture, Rio Tinto is assessing the economic potential of Los Azules and testing its proprietary leaching technology at the site, sources revealed.

The company’s focus on organic growth follows unsuccessful merger discussions with Glencore.

Rio Tinto refrained to comment on the situation.

McEwen Copper managing director Michael Meding told Reuters: “We are obviously discussing with our existing partner Nuton because their technology makes so much sense.”

Meding added: “Now that Rio Tinto is building their copper pipeline, they basically have a mandate to add copper for their production profile. So we are ‌having ⁠fruitful conversations.”

The acquisition of a larger stake could enhance Rio Tinto’s copper resources at a time when new findings are limited and competition for quality assets intensifies.

Nuton initially invested approximately $100m (£73.53m) to secure its stake in McEwen Copper, a unit of McEwen Mining.

A feasibility study estimates the project’s after-tax net present value at $2.9bn, with first production anticipated by 2030.

In its initial five years, the mine aims to produce around 204,800t of copper cathode annually.

Besides Nuton, Stellantis holds an 18.3% stake in McEwen Copper. The automotive company invested around $275m to secure raw materials for electric vehicle batteries.

McEwen Copper seeks initial capital of approximately $4bn (C$5.47bn) for the mine’s development and plans to launch a $300m initial public offering later this year.

Los Azules is situated in the Andes Mountains around 80km west-north-west of Calingasta and 6km from the Chilean border at an altitude of approximately 3,500m.


https://www.mining-technology.com/news/rio-tinto-to-increase-stake-los-azules/

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Molybdenum Market Update on May 11 2026

Molybdenum market update on May 11, 2026

On Monday, domestic molybdenum prices continued the upward trend from last week. Among them, the price of molybdenum concentrate increased by RMB 70/ton-degree, ferromolybdenum increased by RMB 3,000/ton, and ammonium heptamolybdate increased by RMB 1,000/ton. This is mainly attributed to the strong post-May Day steel tender volumes and prices, some molybdenum mine companies continuing to raise prices to promote shipments, and the steady recovery of the international molybdenum market. According to CTIA GROUP, recently, factors such as rising steel prices, strong terminal market demand for molybdenum-containing steel, and low willingness of ferromolybdenum manufacturers to sell at low prices have, to some extent, boosted steel mills’ willingness to raise ferromolybdenum purchase prices; the transaction price of 45-50% molybdenum concentrate from a certain mine in Jiangxi has already surpassed RMB 3,900/ton-degree.

Regarding news, data from the China Iron & Steel Association shows that in late April 2026, the steel inventory of key statistical steel enterprises was 15.43 million tons, a decrease of 3.20 million tons, or 17.2%, compared with the previous ten-day period; an increase of 1.29 million tons, or 9.1%, compared with the beginning of the year; a decrease of 1.12 million tons, or 6.8%, compared with the same ten-day period last month; an increase of 0.14 million tons, or 0.9%, compared with the same ten-day period last year; and a decrease of 0.45 million tons, or 2.8%, compared with the same ten-day period two years ago. By region, steel inventories decreased by 0.86 million tons in Northeast China, 0.06 million tons in North China, 1.22 million tons in East China, 0.02 million tons in Northwest China, 0.14 million tons in Southwest China, and 0.89 million tons in Central South China.

Price of molybdenum products on May 11, 2026

Molybdenum price picture on May 11, 2026


https://www.ctia.com.cn/en/news/50149.html

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Steel

US Steel Imports Up 5.3 Percent in March 2026 From February

According to preliminary census data from the US Department of Commerce, US monthly steel imports in March this year increased by 5.3 percent from February and were down 29.2 percent year on year to total 1,607,503 mt. In terms of value, US steel imports in March totaled $1.6 billion, compared to $1.47 million in February and $2.6 billion in March 2025.

Top sources for US steel imports in March include: South Korea with 264,991 mt, Brazil with 264,350 mt, Canada with 258,994 mt, and Vietnam with 160,793 mt.

By product group, semi-finished imports totaled 405,057 mt in March, down from 434,653 mt in February and down from 596,974 mt in March 2025. Flat product imports totaled 472,651 mt in March, up from 375,780 mt in February and down from 777,041 mt in March 2025. Long product imports totaled 349,879 mt in March, up from 347,431 mt in February and down from 368,415 mt in March last year. Pipe and tube imports amounted to 304,072 mt in March, down from 306,550 mt in February and down from 425,938 mt in March 2025.

According to the American Iron and Steel Institute, the share of imports in the US steel market was estimated at 16 percent in March and at 15 percent the first three months this year.


https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/us-steel-imports-up-53-percent-in-march-2026-from-february-1452751.htm

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