Iran War Has Cost The World $50 Billion of Lost Oil Supply, So Far
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 21, 2026, 5:00 PM CDT
Seven weeks after the war in the Middle East began, the world has already lost 500 million barrels of oil supply, equal to around $50 billion at an average price of $100 per barrel, around which futures prices have been hovering since February 28.
The losses are enormous and continue to pile up as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 million barrels per day of oil supply moved before the war, remains severely restricted, and tensions in the region escalated again.
Even if traffic were restored today at full capacity, oil and LNG supply will take months, and in some cases, years, to recover as all Middle Eastern producers have been forced to curtail upstream production and refinery operations due to hits on energy infrastructure and inability to move oil and LNG cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is the only route to international markets for some of these producers.
500 Million Barrels of Oil Off the Market
Six weeks after the war began, cumulative crude and condensate supply losses in the Middle East had reached 430 million barrels as of April 10, data by Kpler showed.
The analytics firm estimated that Middle Eastern crude supply plunged by an average of 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in March compared to February levels, with a significant portion of the drop driven by Saudi Arabia.
At the end of the seventh week, the cumulative supply loss from the Middle East reached 500 million barrels, per Kpler data. This means a total revenue loss of about $50 billion with oil prices averaging around $100 per barrel since the war began, Johannes Rauball, a senior crude analyst at Kpler, told Reuters.
To put the huge supply loss into perspective, 500 million barrels are equal to almost a full month of oil consumption in the U.S., or more than a month of oil demand in all of Europe, per Reuters estimates.
With so much supply out of the market, inventory draws are accelerating. Kpler said last week that crude markets are tightening with onshore inventories falling by 41 million barrels by mid-April, signaling a drawdown rate of 2.7 million bpd.
“The shift follows the exhaustion of earlier supply buffers and peaks in regional shut-ins,” Kpler’s analysts noted.
“Continued constraints on flows via the Strait of Hormuz suggest further inventory pressure ahead, reinforcing a tightening physical balance.”
Global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 million bpd to 97 million bpd in March, in the largest disruption in history, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report published last week.
Global observed oil inventories fell by 85 million barrels in March, with stocks outside of the Middle East drawn down by a significant 205 million barrels (or by 6.6 million bpd) as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained choked off, the IEA has estimated.
“Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy,” said the agency.
Days after this report was published, the Strait of Hormuz was briefly open for a few hours, but then tensions escalated again, and the world’s most critical oil chokepoint was closed off again. The narrow window of open Strait did not change market balances as few tankers managed to pass Hormuz.
The Strait remained mostly closed as of April 21.
Slow and Lengthy Recovery
Even if it were to open to free, safe, and unconditional traffic for all vessels as early as today, global oil supply will need months – and possibly years in some cases – to recover to pre-war levels, analysts warn.
This implies that disruptions and oil price volatility will continue for months to come, even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to unrestricted traffic today.
Earlier this month, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said that an estimated 11 million bpd of upstream production shut-in across the Middle East can only be restored when export logistics normalize with an open Strait of Hormuz.
Even unconstrained, it will take countries like Iraq a long time to reach prior production levels—as long as between 6 and 9 months—given the complexities involved, due to both reservoir management and resource constraints, said Fraser McKay, Head of Upstream Analysis at WoodMac.
A recovery of LNG supply would take even longer, considering that Qatar has signaled that the damage from Iranian missile strikes to the Ras Laffan LNG complex, the world’s single largest LNG-producing facility, would cost it about $20 billion per year in lost revenue and take up to five years to repair.
The Middle Eastern producers may need up to two years to restore their oil and gas output to the levels from before the war, the IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol said last week.
“This gap is now becoming apparent,” Birol told Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung in an interview published on Friday, referring to the fact that there weren’t any loadings and shipments of oil and gas to Asia in March.
“If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy prices,” Birol said.
Tullow Oil plc (LON:TLW) shares traded up 8.9% on Monday . The stock traded as high as GBX 12.10 and last traded at GBX 11.98. 18,382,098 shares traded hands during trading, a decline of 4% from the average session volume of 19,169,301 shares. The stock had previously closed at GBX 11.
Analysts Set New Price Targets
Separately, Canaccord Genuity Group increased their price target on shares of Tullow Oil from GBX 7 to GBX 13 and gave the company a "hold" rating in a research report on Wednesday, March 4th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, one has issued a Hold rating and two have assigned a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, the stock currently has an average rating of "Reduce" and an average price target of GBX 13.60.
Tullow Oil Price Performance
The company has a quick ratio of 0.63, a current ratio of 0.55 and a debt-to-equity ratio of -750.59. The stock has a market cap of £176.71 million, a P/E ratio of -0.86, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of -0.19 and a beta of 0.37. The business's 50-day simple moving average is GBX 11.79 and its two-hundred day simple moving average is GBX 9.13.
About Tullow Oil
Tullow is an independent energy company that is building a better future through responsible oil and gas development in Africa. Tullow's operations are focused on its core producing assets in Ghana. Tullow is committed to becoming Net Zero on its Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030, with a Shared Prosperity strategy that delivers lasting socio-economic benefits for its host nations. The Group is quoted on the London and Ghanaian stock exchanges symbol: TLW. For further information, please refer to: www.tullowoil.com.
Moscow intends to stop the transit of oil from Kazakhstan to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1.
According to Ukrinform, Reuters stated this in an article.
"Russia is set to stop oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting from May 1," three Reuters sources said today.
The sources, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said that a revised oil export schedule had been sent to Kazakhstan and Germany.
Russia's Ministry of Energy did not respond to a Reuters request for comment. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he was unaware of any steps to stop oil exports. "We will try to check it," Peskov told reporters during a daily conference call.
"Russia's political and business relations with Germany have been frayed by the conflict in Ukraine," Reuters writes.
"Deliveries of Russian oil were halted after the start of the war and Berlin placed the local units of Russia's largest oil producer Rosneft (ROSN.MM), opens new tab under trusteeship in 2022," the report says.
Exports of Kazakh oil to Germany via the Russian Druzhba pipeline in 2025 amounted to 2.146 million metric tonnes, or about 43,000 barrels per day, which is 44% more than in 2024.
Kazakhstan supplies oil to Germany via the northern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, which runs through Poland.
Supplies have been repeatedly disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks on the pipeline within Russian territory.
Germany's PCK refinery, one of the country's largest, located in the northeastern city of Schwedt, is partly supplied with Kazakh oil transported through the pipeline after Russian oil deliveries stopped following the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
As Ukrinform reported, on October 22, 2025, the United States imposed sanctions on companies Lukoil and Rosneft. The restrictions on the largest oil producers were introduced "due to Russia's lack of serious commitment to the peace process aimed at ending the war in Ukraine." However, this week the Trump administration extended an exemption allowing Lukoil retail gas stations to operate outside Russia until the end of October.
President Donald Trump said Tuesday he was surprised by the resiliency of the stock market amid the Iran conflict and assumed the financial damage would be even worse.
In a CNBC interview, the president said he anticipated the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 would have fallen by 20% — the benchmark for a bear market — and oil would be as high as $200 a barrel.
"If you would have told me that oil is at 90 [dollars] as opposed to 200 I would be frankly surprised," Trump said on "Squawk Box." "And you know what is happening? Boats are finding other sources. They're going up to Texas and Louisiana. They're going to Alaska, they're going to other places. It's an amazing phenomenon."
On the stock market, which the president frequently uses as a barometer for economic success, he said he went into the war expecting a sharp sell-off.
"Look at that S&P [500]. The numbers are what they were when we started this whole thing. I thought they'd be down 20% or down a very substantial amount," Trump said. "When it was down more a couple of weeks ago, I was surprised. I thought it would be down much more, and I thought the oil would be much higher, and I'm very happy to say that it wasn't."
Markets plunged in the initial weeks of the war amid volatile trading influenced by the intensity of the fighting.
Following a ceasefire announcement, stocks bounced back, with the Dow currently just off its record high established in early February.
In the energy markets, U.S. light, sweet crude surged above $112 a barrel before receding on the ceasefire. Gasoline prices, though, remain above $4 a gallon, according to AAA, about 87 cents above the level a year ago.
Electrive: Germany targets eight million electric cars by 2030
Using the sales and technology forecasts provided by car manufacturers, NOW GmbH has developed an overall projection for the German passenger car market. As of summer 2025, it expects a passenger car stock of around eight million battery-electric vehicles and 2.4 million plug-in hybrids by 2030.
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Reuters: Biofuels back in vogue as Iran war triggers oil price surge
Soaring oil prices in the wake of the US-Israeli war on Iran are driving renewed demand for biofuels as the need to tackle a fossil fuel shortage outweighs concerns that using crops for fuel will drive up food prices.
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Cyclist deaths across the European Union have barely declined over the past decade – even as deaths among car occupants have fallen at four times the rate. A new report underlines that physical separation of cyclists from fast-moving motor traffic is essential to achieving meaningful safety improvements.
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Solar surge halts fossil generation rise as clean power meets all demand growth and renewables overtake coal.
Over 9 GW of new offshore wind projects came online last year. The sector is set to grow even more as nations in Europe and Asia seek out domestic clean power.
A 20-megawatt offshore wind turbine is under construction in the coastal waters of southeast China’s Fujian province. (Lin Shanchuan/Xinhua via Getty Images)
Offshore wind development has all but screeched to a halt in the United States amid the Trump administration’s unrelenting attacks. But in the rest of the world, it’s another story.
Wealthy and developing economies alike are embracing the energy source as they look to build out supplies of domestic and renewable electricity — a goal that is growing more urgent as the Middle East conflict leaves many nations short on oil and natural gas.
Global offshore wind capacity rose by over 9 gigawatts in 2025, up 16% from the previous year’s installations, bringing the world’s total offshore wind capacity to about 92 GW, the Global Wind Energy Council said in its latest annual report, released Monday. Land-based wind projects saw record gains, adding over 155 GW in 2025.
All told, nearly 1,300 GW of wind turbine installations are now providing power to nearly 140 countries worldwide, according to the international industry group.
About half that cumulative capacity — both offshore and on land — comes from China, which is building renewable energy at a breakneck speed to meet its surging power demand and reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.
The United Kingdom is also a global leader for offshore wind in particular. It added over a gigawatt last year, bringing its total offshore capacity to nearly 17 GW. In January, the government moved to grow that figure further, awarding 8.4 gigawatts’ worth of contracts to project developers. The auction, which was Europe’s biggest for offshore wind to date, set power prices that will be significantly cheaper than those from a new gas-fired power plant.
The U.K. joined nine European Union nations earlier this year in vowing to build 100 GW of the resource to transform the gusty North Sea into “the world’s largest clean energy reservoir” in order to help meet the region’s climate change targets.
Other land-constrained nations, primarily in Asia, are poised to propel the fledgling industry forward in the coming years. Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Vietnam have all recently launched auctions and programs to install gigawatts’ worth of turbines to power their growing economies and curb their dependence on oil and gas imports.
“Despite what you hear from the White House, offshore wind is alive and well,” said Rebecca Williams, deputy CEO of the Global Wind Energy Council. “Across a new set of emerging markets, we’re seeing governments really double down on momentum, and we’re also seeing that from the usual suspects.”
Globally, offshore wind installations are expected to continue growing over the coming years, albeit at a slower pace than once anticipated.
Between 2027 and 2030, countries other than China are expected to add an average of 11 GW in offshore wind installations every year — almost triple the levels from 2022 to 2024, according to the research firm BloombergNEF. China alone could add the same amount over that three-year period.
https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/wind/world-offshore-wind-us-retreat
Canadian mining company B2Gold has agreed to divest part of its assets in Europe, with a deal that will see it receive $325 million from fellow Canadian firm Agnico Eagle. Announced on April 20, the transaction comes as the company sharpens its focus on key operations, particularly in Mali around the Fekola gold complex.
The agreement involves the sale of B2Gold’s majority stake in a company holding several gold exploration licenses in Finland. The transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to close by the end of the month. The proceeds are expected to strengthen the group’s financial position and support its working capital.
While the announcement does not explicitly mention Fekola, the Malian mine remains central to B2Gold’s strategy. In 2025, it produced 530,769 ounces of gold, making it the company’s leading asset, ahead of Otjikoto in Namibia, Masbate in the Philippines, and Goose in Canada. For 2026, B2Gold expects output at Fekola to reach up to 460,000 ounces and plans to invest about $280 million in sustaining capital.
At the same time, the company is advancing the Fekola Regional project, a new deposit designed to increase the complex’s production capacity. Once fully operational, it is expected to add around 180,000 ounces of gold per year. Alongside development work, B2Gold continues efforts to secure the mining permit for the project.
Aurel Sèdjro Houenou
Simon Trott, CEO, Rio Tinto, Photographer: Matt Jelonek/Bloomberg via Getty Images
GLOBAL miner Rio Tinto is “evaluating its options” for its Richards Bay Minerals (RBM) titanium business and actively testing the market for its borates business, it said in its first quarter production update.
The group’s production of titanium dioxide slag dropped 2% to 218,000t in the March quarter compared with the same quarter a year ago, as it said it aligned production to market demand. It is continuing to operate three out of four furnaces at RBM.
Last year Reuters reported that Rio Tinto was considering swapping some of its assets, including its stake in West African iron ore producer Simandou and its 74% of RBM, for Chinalco’s 11% stake in Rio Tinto. Shortly after taking office in September, Rio Tinto CEO Simon Trott put RBM on review, due to weak markets and disappointing returns from the asset.
China is by far the world’s biggest titanium producer, followed by Mozambique, where Kenmare Resources operates the Moma mine. Last year, in response to weak market conditions, Kenmare retrenched 15% of its employees at Moma and suspended its final dividend.
In March Rio Tinto gave the green light to the expansion of RBM to a new area, Zulti South. The total project cost is $473 million, of which Rio Tinto’s share will be $350 million, and it will expand the mine’s life to 2050. The project was first scoped in 2019 and then suspended due to community-related violence.
Rio Tinto said construction has begun and it will take 30 months to complete. Initial production will be in the fourth quarter of 2028. The first phase of the project will support production of zircon and ilmenite, and a second phase will follow.
https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/65098-rio-tinto-considers-options-to-exit-rbm/
On April 20 (Monday), the chairman of the board of US exploration enterprise Copper Intelligence stated that the company plans to commence drilling operations within the next four to six weeks, targeting a copper mining area in eastern Congo that has been largely untouched by major miners. The company believes the region represents an unexplored copper belt.
The DRC is the world's second-largest copper producer, behind only Chile. Last year, the country supplied approximately 4.8 million mt of copper, metals used in EV batteries and the clean energy transition. Previous exploration activities were primarily concentrated in the country's southern copper belt, covering Lualaba and Haut-Katanga provinces, where Glencore and others operate around Kolwezi and Lubumbashi.
By contrast, parts of eastern Congo are better known for gold, tin, tantalum, and tungsten, with operators including Barrick, Alphamin, and artisanal gold producers.
Andrew Groves, chairman of the board of Copper Intelligence, stated that the company has completed the acquisition of the Butembo copper mine permit. The mine is a near-surface, high-grade exploration target discovered after artisanal gold miners identified shallow layered oxide copper mineralization. Groves said soil samples and surface outcrops have identified a copper deposit extending approximately 7 kilometers to the boundary of Virunga National Park, indicating district-scale potential for the area. The permit covers an area of approximately 70 to 80 square kilometers.
He added that drilling is needed to determine the depth and thickness of the primary ore body. Rock samples have returned copper grades of up to 18%, and if this grade is confirmed over a larger area, it would rank among the highest grades globally. The company plans to drill in phases to establish an initial resource estimate. Annual exploration expenditure is expected to be approximately $1 million to $1.5 million.
Groves stated that the project is approximately 50 kilometers from the Ugandan border and can be connected by rail to the port of Mombasa in Kenya, offering a shorter export route compared to the Katanga copper belt.
He added that Copper Intelligence plans to sell copper exclusively to the US market. "Our goal is to become a pure-play US copper supplier."
(Wenhua Consolidated)
(April 21): Copper smelters in China churned out a record volume of refined metal last month, as surging prices of the byproduct sulphuric acid encouraged higher output and aided the industry’s profitability.
Production of the metal that’s key to the energy transition rose to 1.33 million tonnes in March, the highest in data going back to 1990, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. That brought output in the first quarter to 3.785 million tonnes, up 9.3% on-year.
Chinese smelters, the world’s largest suppliers, have proved resilient in recent quarters, even as a slump in processing fees to a record low driven by a shortage of concentrate prompted rivals to cut output, including in Japan.
The companies — led by large and efficient state-owned firms — have been aided by their commitment to local-government growth targets, as well as access to scrap as an alternative feedstock. Another key boost has come from surging income from sulphuric acid, with Chinese prices at a record after the war in Iran choked off sulphur supplies derived from oil and gas production.
For each tonne of copper, Chinese smelters can earn more than 5,000 yuan (RM2,901.25) from sulphuric acid, boosting their willingness to operate, Yang Changhua, chief expert at Beijing Antaike Information Co, told a conference last week.
Still, production may ease. Copper output looks set to decline in April and the following month due to smelters’ seasonal maintenance, with the impact expected to be seen mainly in May, according to Shanghai Metals Market.
In other base metals, zinc output rose 3.6% to 637,000 tonnes last month compared with a year ago, with first-quarter output up 4.1% to 1.839 million tonnes, according to the NBS data. Lead production fell 11% to 652,000 tonnes in March and was down 4.1% to 1.81 million tonnes so far this year.
Posco to set up greenfield steel plant in Odisha with JSW Group after 2 decades. Investment, location, and project details.
Bhubaneswar, Apr 21 (PTI) Over two decades after leaving a mega project in Odisha following large-scale unrest by local people, South Korean steel major Posco is all set to return to the state and set up a greenfield plant in collaboration with JSW Group.
This was announced by Additional Chief Secretary, Industries, Hemant Sharma, here.
"We are very happy to announce that Posco is returning to Odisha. An agreement in this regard was signed on Monday during the South Korean President's visit to India," Sharma told reporters here.
Posco, which had planned to set up a mega steel mill of 12mtpa at an investment of Rs 51,000 near Paradip in Jagatsinghpur district in early 2000, had to abandon it in the face of stiff opposition by local people during the land acquisition process.
Apart from this, the company also failed to get a raw material linkage following a change of mineral policy in the country.
Sharma said they have shown interest in setting up two major Greenfield projects in Odisha, one a 6 mtpa plant in Keonjhar district and another a 5 mtpa capacity steel mill in Dhenkanal district.
"Though the state government has 1,000 acres of land for the purpose, it may arrange more if required. The state will provide all logistics to Posco to set up its proposed plants in Odisha," Sharma said.
In a major boost to Odisha's industrial landscape, JSW Group has announced a significant investment in the state in partnership with the South Korean steel giant.
The two companies have signed a joint venture agreement to establish a mega steel plant in Dhenkanal district.
Sources said the agreement in this regard was signed at the India-Korea Business Summit held in New Delhi on Monday, in the presence of Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, JSW Group Chairman Sajjan Jindal, and Posco Chairman Chang In-hwa.
In the proposed project in Dhenkanal, both JSW and Posco will hold equal stakes of 50 per cent each and the total investment is estimated at around Rs 35,000 crone.
The project is expected to generate significant employment opportunities, both directly and indirectly, and contribute to the economic growth of the region.
In the January-March period this year, China’s rebar production totaled 42.319 million mt, down 12.3 percent year on year, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
In the given period, domestic wire rod production amounted to 31.247 million mt, decreasing by 6.4 percent year on year, while welded pipe output came to 13.116 million mt, down 7.3 percent year on year.
In March alone, China’s production of rebar, wire rod and welded pipe amounted to 15.415 million mt, 11.583 million mt and 5.917 million mt, down 17.4 percent, 6.0 percent and 7.1 percent year on year, respectively.
In March, rebar prices in the Chinese domestic market edged down first as the demand recovery was not as good as market players had expected, while they moved up later in the month as infrastructure projects entered the peak construction season, stimulating the demand for rebar and reducing inventories. Rebar prices reached a peak in March at RMB 3,267/mt ($476/mt) on March 23, with the lowest level during the month seen at RMB 3,210/mt ($468/mt) on March 4-8, according to SteelOrbis’ data.
As of April 21, the operating rate of 50 major construction steel-producing electric furnace steel mills nationwide was 41.4%, down 0.6% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 42.5%, down 0.3% WoW; daily average production of construction steel was 94,700 mt, down 700 mt WoW.
During the survey period (April 14–April 21), four electric furnace mills in east China and southwest China shortened their operating hours, leading to a 0.6% WoW decline in the nationwide electric furnace mill operating rate. Although construction steel prices edged up this week, steel scrap prices rose more than finished steel prices, causing profitability at electric furnace mills to decline. More enterprises voluntarily shortened production hours.
Overall, some electric furnace mills are currently facing weak shipments and profitability under pressure. Enterprise production enthusiasm has weakened. Next week, some electric furnace mills still plan to reduce operating hours, and therefore the electric furnace operating rate will continue to decline going forward.
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Milano, 21 apr - Australian miner Rio Tinto said that in the first three months of 2026, iron ore production from the Pilbara area of Australia rose an annual 13%, the second highest first quarter since 2018, to reach 78.8 million tons, while total iron ore output rose 12% to 82. million tons.
Tropical cyclones impacted Pilbara shipments by approximately 8 Mt, with around half expected to be recovered. The first full SimFer shipment of high-grade Simandou product was successfully delivered to China with first sales realised in April.
Global iron ore sales rose 2% to 75.7 million tons and Pilbara sales also increased 2% to 72.4 million tons. the guidance for the full year is unchanged at 343-366 million tons for global sales and 323-338 million tons for Pilbara sales.
Copper production roduction rose 9% to 229,000 tons, supported by the continued successful ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi.
Drilling at Resolution is now underway following completion of the land exchange in March. Full year guidance is unchanged at 800-870,000 tons.
Bauxite production fell 11% to 13.3 million tons with guidance unchanged at 58-61 million tons. Alumina production rose 6% to 2.0 million tons, with guidance confirmed at 7.6-8.0 million tons, while aluminium production inched up 1% to 0.84 million tons with guidance steady at 3.25-3.45 million tons, as strength and agility offset weather-related.
(RADIOCOR) 21-04-26 08:22:58 (0172) 5 NNNN