Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivers a speech during the opening session of the National People's Congress (NPC), at the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing, China March 5, 2025. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Notably, supporting domestic consumption has taken precedence over China’s usual focus on industrial and technological advancements
The Chinese government announced a significant increase in fiscal stimulus on Tuesday as it seeks to counter the economic strain of new U.S. tariffs. Premier Li Qiang, speaking at the opening of China’s annual parliamentary session, outlined greater efforts to boost domestic consumption to sustain the country’s 5% growth target in 2025.
Li warned that “an increasingly complex and severe external environment” was putting pressure on trade, science, and technology, highlighting concerns that the escalating trade war with the United States could harm China’s vast industrial sector.
Beijing’s Response to U.S. Tariffs
Washington has imposed an additional 20 percentage points in tariffs on Chinese goods, with the most recent 10-point increase taking effect on Tuesday. Chinese producers—who export over $400 billion worth of goods to the U.S. annually—fear further increases will trigger price wars and trade barriers in other markets.
“We worry that they will add another 10% and then another 10%,” said Dave Fong, a Chinese manufacturer of consumer goods.
Despite its $1 trillion annual trade surplus, China is facing weak consumer demand and economic uncertainty at home. Economists say the government must shift away from an export-driven model and stimulate domestic demand to drive growth.
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the opening session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, March 5, 2025. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang
New Stimulus Measures
In response, Beijing has announced:
Analysts believe China is holding back additional stimulus measures until it fully assesses the economic impact of the trade war, according to Reuters.
“March is too early for any major policy stimulus,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie. “At this point, they will keep their cards close to the chest.”
A Shift in Economic Priorities
Notably, supporting domestic consumption has taken precedence over China’s usual focus on industrial and technological advancements.
“For the first time, boosting consumption has been elevated to the top priority among 2025’s major tasks,” said Tilly Zhang, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics.
Despite this, some welfare increases appear modest:
Delegates in traditional attire walk near the Great Hall of the People after the opening session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), in Beijing, China, March 5, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura
China’s Economic Strategy: Consumption Over Exports
With exports becoming more vulnerable to U.S. protectionism and global trade barriers, China’s leadership is pushing for stronger domestic demand.
“Further expanding the trade surplus is no longer a good strategy,” said Andrew Xia, chief economist at Shangshan Capital Group.
The focus on internal demand is crucial, as China’s household spending remains below 40% of GDP—20 percentage points below the global average. Meanwhile, investment remains 20 percentage points above global norms, reinforcing concerns about economic imbalances.
Outlook and Next Steps
While Beijing’s initial stimulus measures are in place, many economists believe more aggressive fiscal policies may be necessary later in the year to fully counteract the U.S. tariffs’ long-term effects.
For now, China is bracing for further escalation, as businesses and policymakers navigate an uncertain economic landscape.
04 MAR, 2025 By Tom Pashby
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) has been accused of “abusing the issue of national security in the planning process” by lawyers acting for the company behind the proposed Aquind Interconnector project.
The 2GW Aquind Interconnector is a proposed high voltage direct current (HVDC) link between England and France that has been awaiting the green light on its development consent order (DCO) for almost six years. NCE revealed that the developer’s lawyers have threatened to pursue legal action against the Department for Energy Securityh and Net Zero (DESNZ) because of the company’s “frustrations” with delays to its DCO application process.
The MOD has also interfered with the process by citing “significant national security concerns” about the interconnector, without publicly specifying what they are. Aquind’s lawyers have accused the MOD of “potentially behaving unlawfully” by doing this.
A letter revealed to NCE under the Freedom of Information (FOI) Act in 2024 dated 14 October 2024 from Aquind’s lawyers Herbert Smith Freehills (HSF) to the Secretary of State (SoS) at DESNZ made a series of accusations about the MOD.
HSF said: “It appears that the MOD is seeking to treat the Aquind Interconnector exceptionally, in a manner which is inconsistent with its response to other projects which utilise the same technology, without any sound basis for this discrimination.
“This is particularly the case when bearing in mind the range of potential threats and vulnerabilities to UK defence and national security which the statement advances and insinuates could be of relevance to the proposed development, which include ‘terrorism, espionage, sabotage, subversion and organised crime’ which would equally apply to IFA2 and many other activities lawfully carried [out] in the English Channel.”
IFA2 is a 1GW HVDC interconnector between the British and French transmission systems that was developed by National Grid and RTE (Réseau de Transport d’Électricité/Electricity Transmission Network), commissioned in 2021.
Aquind denied to NCE that it thought IFA2 could be linked to terrorism or the other activities, with spokesperson Ben Iorio clarifying that it was used as a way to show “inconsistencies in the way security-related arguments have been applied to Aquind compared to other interconnector projects”.
“Both projects are in close geographic proximity, and our point was that if the stated concerns about interconnectors were a genuine basis for objection, then logically they would apply to both projects,” he added.
HSF’s letter to DESNZ went on to say: “In light of the above, there is an unavoidable concern held by Aquind that the MOD is abusing the issue of national security in the planning process in a manner that is materially and unfairly prejudicing Aquind and its legitimate interests.
“The approach taken by the MOD does not accord with what national planning policy and government policy requires, and there is concern that the MOD is potentially behaving unlawfully in respect of this matter.
“We trust that the SoS will take these concerns seriously, particularly in circumstances where the MOD’s inconsistent behaviour in the public domain signals to industry that processes in place for the fair and effective consenting of nationally significant infrastructure cannot be relied upon, deterring investment at a time when delivery of such infrastructure is critical for energy security and meeting net zero.”
Aquind accuses MOD of ignoring mitigation proposals
Aquind’s lawyers HSF, via the letter to DESNZ, laid out a variety of mitigations to the MOD’s unspecified “significant national security concerns”. It said it had proposed them previously to the MOD.
HSF said Aquind “would be willing to enter into an agreement with the MoD in respect of before the commencement of the construction of the Proposed Development” and listed five proposals.
It proposed to offer the MOD “approval of the suppliers”, “approval of contractors and subcontractors delivering the marine elements of the project” and “confirmation of Aquind’s construction programme and modifications where necessary to avoid conflicts with any MOD works in the marine environment”.
It offered to give the MOD the “ability for representatives of or on behalf of the MOD to oversee the delivery of the marine elements of the project (a watching brief)”.
The final mitigation on offer from Aquind, according to HSF, was to change the corporate structure of Aquind Ltd so that it complies with the terms of the National Security and Investment Act 2021.
HSF said Aquind could provide the MOD with “confirmation of the delivery company corporate structure for the Aquind lnterconnector, and approval in respect of shareholders, taking into account that the company falls under the National Security and Investment Act 2021.
“For example, a similar regime exists in Aquind’s agreements in respect of a seabed license with the Crown Estate and a lease of a land plot with National Grid.”
However, HSF said its client Aquind was not satisfied with the MOD’s response to its proposed mitigations, in particular the behaviour of the ministry.
The lawyers said: “Whilst the MOD’s position on mitigation is clearly set out, and it is also clear that in presenting this position the MOD has not conducted itself in the collaborative manner which national policy requires where there is a clear expectation that all persons will make appropriate efforts to work together to identify realistic and pragmatic solutions to any conflicts, it is not clear whether the proposed mitigation has been assessed by the MOD at all.
“Should any reasons provided by the MOD not relate to the character of the use of the land they will not serve a planning purpose, and they will not be a material planning consideration.
“This includes where the underlying reasons serve an ulterior purpose, however desirable that purpose may seem to be in the public interest.”
HSF did not spell out which “ulterior” purposes that could be in the public interest it was referring to. Aquind also chose not to elaborate on what its lawyers meant by “ulterior” in its response to NCE.
DESNZ’s failed attempt to mediate
In a letter to both Aquind and the MOD on 12 July 2024, shortly after the new government had come into power, a letter sent on behalf of the SoS for DESNZ sought to assuage the issues between the two parties by laying out future steps in the process of mitigating national security concerns.
However, HSF asserted that within the letter “the SoS has not identified any steps in the process which could involve notification of his disagreement with the recommendation of the ExA (Examining Authority) should there be one, nor provide an opportunity for representations to be made once he has notified interested parties of any such disagreement.
“Should the SoS not provide for this he will be in breach of the requirements provided for by the Rules.”
“The Rules” refers to the Infrastructure Planning (Examination Procedure) Rules 2010.
The lawyers went on: “The SoS risks being in breach of his duty to take reasonable steps to inform himself so as to be able to answer the question before him […] should he proceed without requiring this necessary assessment to be undertaken.
“Aquind Interconnector is being treated exceptionally by the MOD, without valid planning or other justification for this.”
Aquind’s lawyers doubled down on their dissatisfaction with the MOD’s handling of its proposed mitigations.
HSF said: “The MoD has categorically failed to explore any mitigation, refusing to engage with Aquind contrary to the expectations of national planning policy.”
Pushing the issue of legal compliance, HSF said: “We trust that the SoS will fully take into account this response to the MOD’s open submissions when considering the MOD’s submissions in their entirety, and that he will also ensure his decision is taken in a manner which complies with all relevant regulatory and other legal requirements.”
HSF likely makes a distinction between “open submissions” and “submissions in their entirety” because of the secret process which had been mooted by DESNZ for the MOD to air its concerns.
Aquind questions context of security concerns
Aquind spokesperson Iorio reiterated to NCE the lawyers’ position that “concerns related to security have been used in ways that do not appear to follow a clearly defined or consistent approach”.
“Any assessment of risk should be based on objective evidence and applied equally across all infrastructure projects,” he continued.
“It is in the interest of both Aquind and the wider planning system – and indeed the UK’s long-term infrastructure development as a whole – that decision-making remains predictable, evidence-based, and aligned with established principles.”
He also highlighted that the project would not require any public money
“Unlike other large-scale infrastructure projects, Aquind requires no taxpayer funding and is fully privately financed,” he said.
“All preparatory work is complete, and the project is in a uniquely advantageous position to begin construction as soon as final approval is granted.
“With the government’s commitment to reaching net zero by 2050, there is no reason why a project of this scale, which enhances energy security and accelerates decarbonization, should not be approved swiftly.”
Government tight-lipped on whether it acted unlawfully
NCE approached DESNZ and the MOD regarding the allegations of unlawful behaviour by Aquind.
An MOD spokesperson responded on behalf of the government, saying: “The re-determination process remains ongoing, and submissions have been provided by the Ministry of Defence as part of that work.”
Amin Nasser by F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg
Global oil demand will hit a record this year as Asian countries, particularly China and India, continue to expand consumption, said the head of the world’s biggest oil producer, Saudi Aramco.
Oil use is set to rise by 1.3 million barrels a day this year to just over 106 million a day, helped for petrochemicals and jet fuel, CEO Amin Nasser said on an earnings call March 4.
That’s slightly higher than the 1.05 million barrel-a-day growth forecast by the International Energy Agency.
Aramco has long been positive about demand, including in its largest market China even as the Asian nation was sluggish to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.
His latest comments come a day after OPEC+ and its de-facto leader Saudi Arabia said they would proceed with long-delayed plans to unwind production cutbacks, even though economic growth prospects remain weak.
The OPEC+ decision can only help Aramco and other producers as they will benefit from higher sales, Nasser said.
Saudi production has lingered near the lowest level in more than three years. That combined with subdued oil prices to push Aramco’s net income for 2024 lower, slightly missing analysts’ estimates. The company also followed through with a previously announced plan to cut its total dividend for 2025.
Oil in London dropped to the lowest in almost three months this week, following the OPEC+ plan. Brent was trading near $70 a barrel on March 4, below the more than $90 that Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget.
Separately, Nasser said that expansion in liquefied natural gas and petrochemical projects are key for the company’s growth.
https://www.ttnews.com/articles/aramco-ceo-strong-oil-demand
The bloc has already drained its underground reservoirs, Russia’s energy giant has said
The EU has been tapping its gas storage facilities at a rapid pace and had already used up its winter stockpile by January despite seasonal temperatures remaining in line with climate norms, Russia’s energy giant Gazprom has reported.
Before the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russian gas exports accounted for 40% of the bloc’s total supply. Gazprom, once the EU’s main supplier, reduced its exports there dramatically three years ago, following Western sanctions and the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines.
The EU has increased withdrawals from its gas storage facilities by 36% during the current season and by 22% above the ten-year average, Gazprom said on Monday, citing data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.
As of February 28, European underground storage facilities held 39.2 bcm of gas, accounting for 38.5% of total capacity – 24.3 bcm less than a year ago. The EU has withdrawn 58 bcm of gas this season – fifty percent higher than the amount injected during the summer.
This significant drawdown, combined with a reduction in reliable gas supply sources, poses challenges for the EU to refill its storage sites over the summer and prepare for the upcoming winter, Gazprom warned.
The EU has been increasingly reliant on more costly liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports since Brussels prioritized eliminating its reliance on cheaper Russian energy. While several EU nations continue to rely on Russian gas, many have voluntarily halted their imports.
Earlier this year, natural gas prices in the bloc climbed to their highest level in two years, driven by a combination of cold weather, declining gas reserves, and concerns over potential US tariffs on imports from the EU.
Adding to the challenge, the EU has imposed binding targets for gas storage, requiring a 90% capacity level by November 1, 2025.
The sharp decline in European gas storage levels has posed a serious challenge for both governments and energy consumers across the region.
Western Europe is already importing substantial volumes of LNG at elevated prices, with EU and UK imports reaching 9.8 million metric tons in January, the highest level since December 2023, according to energy analytics firm Kpler. The US accounted for 57% of the total supply.
Market experts warn that the competition for gas supplies is expected to intensify. US LNG export capacity has not expanded as quickly as expected, while demand continues to grow in Asia, Egypt, and other markets.
As defined by the Nuclear World Association, Thorium (Torio in Spanish) is “a slightly radioactive natural metal discovered in 1828 by the Swedish chemist Jans Jakob Berzelius, who baptized him in honor of Thor, the Nordic god of thunder.” The thorium is more abundant (three more times) in nature than uranium, and can only be used as a fuel along with a fistening material, such as recycled plutonium.
“Torio fuels can generate uranium-233, which can be used in various types of nuclear reactors” and “molten salts are especially suitable for Torio fuel, since they avoid conventional fuel manufacturing,” they explain from the association. That is, the thorium can be used in the nuclear energy production process.
According to 2016 data, China had around 100,000 tons of Torio, not even entering the five countries with more Torio reserves. At that time, India and Brazil had the largest reserves, with 846,000 and 632,000 tons respectively.
But, after this new examination of its rare earth, China could position itself as a leading supplier of Torio, and feed not only its energy needs, but also those of other countries. Specifically, the National Study of Torio has identified about 233 rich areas in Torio throughout China, grouped into five key belts from inside Xinjiang to the coast of Guangdong.
Advantages and challenges
According to Nuclear Forum, although the Torio has numerous advantages such as the greatest abundance and greater performance with respect to Uranium, as well as the lowest generation of radioactive waste, there are challenges to face to be able to take advantage of this material with greater efficiency.
Research is still needed to develop efficient methods to convert the thorium into usable fuel, as well as to adapt the designs of reactors and fuel processing technologies to remove all the game from this chemical element. In other words, manufacturing and using specific reactors to use this element (molten salts or RSF reactors) is quite expensive, so using it also implies larger costs.
Huge discovery in Mongolia
According to this declassified report, an iron site has been discovered in interior Mongolia that would contain enough Torio to meet the energy demand of all the housing of the United States for more than 1,000 years. On the other hand, Bayan Obo’s mining complex could produce up to 1 million tons of Torio, which would allow to supply China herself for 60,000 years.
A geologist in Beijing, without revealing its identity for security reasons, has indicated that this energy source could be a way to replace fossil fuels, although it must be taken into account that in the European region, for example, the use of nuclear energy can go against the road map established to carry out the ecological transition.
For more than a century, nations have been participating in wars for fossil fuels. It turns out that the inexhaustible source of energy is found just below our feet, ”said the geologist.
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Ahead of 9 a.m. CT, May corn was down 2½¢ at $4.67 per bushel.
May soybeans were down 6¾¢ at $10.19 per bushel.
May wheat contracts were higher. CBOT wheat was up 2¢ at $5.57¾ per bushel. KC wheat was up 1¾¢ at $5.74¾. Minneapolis wheat was up 2¢ at $5.99¾.
“Corn and soybean futures slipped a bit further in early trade amid continued worries about the impact U.S. tariffs set to take effect on Tuesday will have on agricultural exports, with losses limited by a weaker dollar,” said The Brock Report this morning about the overnight session. “Wheat futures managed modest gains on support from the weaker dollar, dry conditions in the U.S. hard red winter wheat belt, and dwindling Russian exports.”
Earlier this morning USDA announced Mexico is buying 114,000 metric tons of corn for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
April livestock were mixed ahead of 9 a.m. CT. Live cattle were up 23¢ at $192.88 per hundredweight (cwt). Feeder cattle were down 88¢ at $272.13 per cwt. Lean hogs were up 73¢ at $84.40 per cwt.
April crude oil was up 12¢ at $69.88 per barrel.
The U.S. Dollar Index March contract was down to 106.62 less than a quarter before 9 a.m. CT.
March S&P 500 futures were up 9 points. March Dow futures were up 129 points.
Published: 9:31 a.m. CT
https://www.agriculture.com/corn-and-soy-in-the-red-or-monday-march-1-2025-11689497
Zacks Equity Research March 04, 2025
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) recorded a loss of $16.04 per share in fourth-quarter 2024, wider than a loss of $2.91 per share in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, the adjusted loss in the reported quarter was 11 cents per share, compared with a loss of 41 cents a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was earnings of a penny per share.
The company registered revenues of $55.8 million for the quarter, down around 2% year over year.
Intrepid Potash, Inc Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
IPI’s Segment Highlights
Revenues in the Potash segment rose roughly 1% year over year to roughly $28.9 million in the reported quarter. It was above the consensus estimate of $17.2 million. Higher sales volumes were mostly offset by a decline in average net realized sales price per ton.
The Trio unit raked in revenues of around $23.5 million, up around 11% year over year. The metric was above the consensus estimate of $14.2 million. The upside was driven by higher sales volumes and increased average net realized sales price per ton.
Revenues from the Oilfield Solutions unit were roughly $3.5 million, down around 50% year over year. This figure was below the consensus estimate of $6.3 million. Sales were impacted by the timing of water sales.
IPI’s FY24 Results
Loss (as reported) for full-year 2024 was $16.53 per share, compared with a loss of $2.80 a year ago. Sales fell around 9% year over year to roughly $254.7 million. The decline in sales was mainly due to lower volumes and prices in the potash segment.
Intrepid Potash’s Financials
The company had roughly $41.3 million in cash and cash equivalents and no outstanding borrowings on its $150 million revolving credit facility at the end of 2024.
Cash flow from operations was $7.6 million in the reported quarter and $72.5 million for full-year 2024.
IPI’s Outlook
The company sees capital expenditure of between $36 million and $42 million for 2025, with the majority being sustaining capital.
In 2025, the company plans to build on the significant improvements in potash production it saw last year while also maintaining its focus on operational efficiencies and cost controls to drive margins.
IPI’s Price Performance
Shares of Intrepid Potash have gained 16.4% in a year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s decline of 3.9%.
Another significant influence on gold prices is the behavior of central banks, mainly their gold reserves. Many central banks have been increasing their gold holdings to safeguard against economic uncertainty, providing long-term support for gold prices. Goldman Sachs recently raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, citing ongoing central bank demand. However, despite this strong institutional interest, short-term volatility remains a factor, and traders adjusting their positions in response to shifting market conditions have contributed to the recent dip in gold prices.
Interest rates and inflation also continue to be critical drivers of gold's value. Persistent inflationary pressures have led to speculation about potential Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments. Higher interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing investments, which can lead to short-term selling pressure. On the other hand, if central banks choose to maintain lower interest rates to support economic growth, gold's role as a hedge against inflation could become even more prominent. This ongoing uncertainty surrounding monetary policy decisions has added to gold's recent volatility.
Geopolitical tensions have further contributed to fluctuations in gold prices. The uncertainty surrounding the anticipated peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia has left investors wary of sudden market shifts. Historically, geopolitical instability drives demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as negotiations unfold and markets react to developments, short-term corrections in gold prices can occur. Any unexpected geopolitical escalation could reverse the current downward trend and push gold prices higher again.
Despite the recent dip, gold remains a crucial asset in economic and political instability. Investors looking to safeguard their wealth continue to view gold as a reliable store of value, and with ongoing central bank demand and inflationary concerns, gold's long-term outlook remains strong.
https://www.usgoldbureau.com/news/post/gold-prices-drop-from-recent-highs
Harmony Gold, South Africa’s biggest gold producer by volume, will fund the construction of a new Australian copper mine using its own cash, the miner said on Tuesday, as its earnings jumped on a rally in gold prices.
The Johannesburg-based miner is diversifying into copper – a metal critical to electric vehicles and power grid infrastructure – as gold mining in South Africa becomes more costly and geologically challenging due to increasing depth.
Harmony wholly owns the Eva copper project in Queensland, Australia, and is joint owner with Newmont of Wafi Golpu in Papua New Guinea.
The mine in Australia could produce 55,000 metric tons to 60,000 tons of copper annually from 2029, the company says. The cost of building the mine, expected to take about three years, could be higher than an initial estimate of $600 million, CEO Beyers Nel told Reuters.
Harmony is “blessed with a robust and flexible balance sheet and quite comfortable” that it can fund the construction of Eva copper mine on its own, Nel said.
Finance director Boipelo Lekubo told analysts the surge in the gold price was a significant tailwind which had increased Harmony’s net cash position to nearly $400 million. This and available financing facilities mean Harmony has about $1 billion it can use on its growth projects.
Gold prices have risen more than 20% over the past year, driven by safe-haven demand amid global economic uncertainty and central bank buying.
Nel said Harmony was updating the planned mine’s studies before announcing how much financing would be required.
Harmony also owns the Hidden Valley gold mine in Papua New Guinea. It is among a dwindling number of South African gold miners still battling to squeeze profits from some of the world’s deepest mines.
Earlier on Tuesday, Harmony said its net profit jumped 33% to 7.9 billion rand in the six months to December 2024, reaping a windfall from a 28% increase in the price of gold during the half-year period.
Harmony said it would pay an interim dividend of 2.27 rand per share or about 1.4 billion rand, compared to about 1.47 rand per share paid out a year ago.
($1 = 18.5896 rand)
(Reporting by Felix Njini in Johannesburg and Nelson Banya in Harare; Editing by Rachna Uppal and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
American Pacific CEO Warwick Smith remains heavily bullish on copper stocks as Trump’s tariffs kick in from Tuesday. He explained that industrial metal will be in heavy demand as businesses need to stockpile it for manufacturing purposes. The demand will not meet supply due to tariffs making copper the most sought-after commodity in the markets.
The move could catapult leading US copper stocks making them hit new highs in the coming months. In the commodity market, copper prices are already surging and are hovering around the $9,390 level. It is up more than 50 points on Tuesday and is looking to breach the $10,000 mark next.
“Copper is not just another base metal, it is extremely important. Every American requires 12 pounds of copper to maintain their standard of living,” said Smith to Kitco News. “With projects like our Madison Copper-Gold project in Montana and Palmer Copper-Zinc project in Alaska, we are well-positioned to potentially supply the growing domestic demand for copper, a critical metal for the US economy and clean energy transition,” he said indicating that stocks could spike in value.
The supply of copper in the homeland could make stocks soar as the metal is already attracting bullish sentiments. “Copper is on a steady trajectory higher,” he said. “The supply of copper down the road is not going to be adequate to meet demand. Copper prices are going to find their traction out of necessity more than anything else.”
Which Copper Stocks To Buy?
Source: Shawn Hempel / Adobe Stock
The top five copper stocks to watch out for are BHP Group, Freeport-McMoRan, Teck Resources, Southern Copper, and Rio Tinto. These deal with the commodity directly and are positioned to surge in value. Taking an entry position now and holding on for the long term could prove beneficial. Similar to gold prices, copper stocks could deliver the desired results in the coming years.
https://watcher.guru/news/buy-copper-stocks-now-prices-could-skyrocket-analyst
JP Morgan predicts global copper deficit to hit 160,000 metric tons in 2026
Show Caption Hide Caption Mexico, Canada tariffs most likely to impact Americans After a brief pause, President Donald Trump announced Mexico and Canada tariffs back on for early March, which could ultimately impact Americans.
JP Morgan expects the global deficit in refined copper to grow to 160,000 metric tons in 2026 and continues to forecast copper prices averaging around $11,000 per metric ton next year, the bank said in a note dated Friday.
Following U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to order a national security probe into potential new tariffs on copper imports, the bank said it expects a tariff rate of at least 10% on refined copper and copper product imports to be enacted by late in the third quarter, with a significant risk of a higher tariff rate of 25%.
"Likely excess inventory builds in the U.S. in the coming months ahead of a tariff on copper sets up the potential to leave the rest of the world shorter of copper ... setting the stage for our forecast bullish push higher over 2H25 towards $10,400/mt," JP Morgan noted.
A police officer operates at Cobre Panama mine of Canadian First Quantum Minerals, one of the world's largest open-pit copper mines, in Donoso, Panama, January.
The bank also forecast China's demand growth would slow from 4% last year to 2.5% this year, and added "this remains the greatest downside risk to our forecasted tightening in copper markets".
However, the bank predicted only a modest deceleration in global copper demand growth from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025.
The global refined copper market showed a 22,000 metric ton deficit in December, compared with a 124,000 metric ton deficit in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) report showed.
Meanwhile, Citi last week said in a note it anticipated the eventual implementation of a 25% copper-specific tariff by the fourth quarter of 2025 following Trump's executive order.
London copper CMCU3 rose on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar and improving manufacturing activity in top metals consumer China. MET/L
Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Kevin Liffey.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/03/03/tariffs-copper-imports-jp-morgan/81171366007/
Starting March 3, the base price of HRC is $900 per short ton
US steelmaker Nucor has announced another increase in the spot price (CSP) for hot rolled coil (HRC). Starting March 3, it will be $900 per short tonne for all producers’ plants, except for California Steel Industries (CSI), where the price reached $960 per tonne.
This is the sixth consecutive increase since the beginning of this year. The previous price revision took place at the end of last month, when Nucor set the base HRC price at $860/t on February 24.
This move aligns Nucor’s strategy with Cleveland-Cliffs’ current strategy. Earlier, the latter published a monthly update for its customers, raising the minimum HRC price to $900 per short ton for April contracts.
The synchronization of prices among the major producers demonstrates the industry’s consolidated response to market conditions, recovering demand and possible supply chain adjustments due to the announced 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum. At the same time, this may mean significant cost pressure for the downstream industries.
As GMK Center reported earlier, hot-rolled coil prices have increased in most markets since the beginning of 2025. In particular, in North America, offers increased by 3% as of February 10 – to $685/t. The market was characterized by unstable dynamics in January, driven by both macroeconomic factors and the trade policy of the new US administration. In February, the situation improved slightly. The market is expected to become more dynamic in the second quarter of 2025.
India's finished steel imports from China, South Korea and Japan hit a record high in the first 10 months of the financial year, according to provisional government data seen by Reuters on Tuesday.
India, the world's second-biggest crude steel producer, shipped in record quantities of finished steel during April-January, and was a net importer, Reuters had reported earlier.
Imports of finished steel from South Korea stood at 2.4 million metric tons, up 11.7% on year, the data showed. South Korea was the biggest exporter of the alloy to India during the period.
Finished steel shipments from China stood at 2.3 million metric tons during April-January, up 3.4% on year.
Finished steel imports from Japan stood at 1.8 million metric tons, up 88.6% on year, the data showed.
Imports from China, South Korea and Japan accounted for 78% of India's overall finished steel imports.
India's fiscal year runs April through March.
Imports from Indonesia stood at 0.3 million metric tons, up nearly three times from a year ago period.
Hot-rolled coil or strips were the most imported grades, the data showed, while bars and rods led shipments in the non-flat steel products category.
In December, India launched an investigation to determine whether it needed to impose a safeguard duty or a temporary tax to rein in unbridled imports of steel.
Last month, India's Steel Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy told Reuters the government could impose a safeguard duty of 15% to 25% on steel imports.
Meanwhile, exports of finished steel slumped to an at least seven-year low during April to January.
Finished steel exports to Italy, the biggest export destination, nearly halved during the period.
Exports to Belgium, Nepal and Spain also fell during April-January, the data showed.
Published 03/04/2025, 10:30 PM
Updated 03/05/2025, 02:30 AM
By Michele Pek
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Iron ore futures faltered on Wednesday, pressured by tit-for-tat tariffs between the United States and top metals consumer China, outweighing optimism about improved demand for Chinese steel.
The most-traded May iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed 1.34% lower to 771 yuan ($106.18) a metric ton.
The benchmark April iron ore on the Singapore Exchange (OTC:SPXCY) was down 1.42% at $99.4 a ton, as of 0705 GMT.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20% took effect on Tuesday, prompting swift retaliation from Beijing and spurring trade war concerns.
Beijing hiked import levies covering $21 billion worth of American agricultural and food products, and suspended the soybean import licenses of three U.S. firms and halted log imports.
"Sentiment was also impacted by the prospect of further tariffs," ANZ analysts said.
U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium are due to kick in on March 12.
China unlocked more fiscal stimulus on Wednesday, promising greater efforts to support consumption and cushion the impact of an escalating trade war with the United States, with specific measures including a significant expansion in Beijing’s trade-in scheme launched last year.
China said it would restructure its giant steel industry through output cuts, although it did not announce any target in its most recent intervention to address an overcapacity in the sector.
"Both supply and demand of imported iron ore in China are predicted to strengthen in March, usually a month when steel consumption in the country is robust," Chinese consultancy Mysteel said.
"This should keep prices of the steelmaking material firm."
Most steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lost ground. Rebar dipped 0.7%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.56%, wire rod eased nearly 0.8%, while stainless steel posted a modest gain of 0.38%.
Other steelmaking ingredients on the DCE declined, with coking coal and coke losing 3.32% and 2.66%, respectively
The Indian steel industry is grappling with critical challenges related to coking coal supplies, a topic extensively discussed at the Coaltrans India 2025 conference in New Delhi. For more details, read the [full report here](https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/indian-steel-industry-challenges-opportunities/ target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener"). The conference highlighted the reliance on Australian metallurgical coal and the industry's efforts to diversify its supply chains amidst a growing supply-demand imbalance.
According to data from the IndexBox platform, as Australian coking coal accounts for roughly 50% of global supply, other significant contributors include the United States, Canada, and Russia. However, the future growth of coking coal supply is failing to keep pace with the increasing demand from countries like India, leading to potential shortfalls in supply.
The Ministry of Steel in India has ambitious plans to expand steel production capacity to 300 million tonnes by 2030, which will necessitate securing approximately 220 million tonnes of coking coal annually. The dependency on Australian coal, which remains pivotal for the industry, is gradually declining as Indian steelmakers turn to sources in Russia and the United States.
Exploring Alternatives Amid Thin Margins
Indian steelmakers, faced with thin profit margins, are exploring innovative strategies to optimize costs. These include the use of non-premium hard coking coal (HCC) and techniques such as stamp charging to enhance coke strength. Additionally, the increase in pulverized coal injection (PCI) rates has been instrumental in controlling expenses.
With the surging demand for steel, India's met coke consumption is forecasted to reach 70 million tonnes by 2030, up from 40 million tonnes in 2020. To meet this demand, domestic met coke capacity is anticipated to expand by over 50% to 85 million tonnes, with output ramping up to 65 million tonnes, as documented by IndexBox.
Need for Strategic Diversification
At the conference, experts like Simon Nicholas from the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis emphasized the risks tied to India's heavy reliance on Australian coal, underlining the ESG concerns and potential shifts in policy impacting coal projects. With over 42 million tonnes of met coal imported from Australia in 2023 alone, the Indian government is urged to diversify its coking coal sources further.
Industry stakeholders are called to proactively adapt and plan strategically to navigate these looming challenges, ensuring a stable supply for India's steel industry while potentially curbing the increasing global prices predicted by entities like Whitehaven Coal.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform