May 14, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET | iShares MSCI Brazil Small-Cap ETF (EWZS)
Investment Thesis
I reiterate my buy rating on the iShares MSCI Brazil Small-Cap ETF (EWZS). This is not my first article on Brazilian small caps; actually, I wrote my first article in 2024 and some comprehensive articles after that. Brazilian small caps were forgotten some years ago, but now an interesting cyclical pattern can change this thesis.
iShares MSCI Brazil Small-Cap ETF
The EWZS is the best-known Brazilian small-cap ETF on the market.
This ETF is managed by BlackRock, has an expense ratio of 0.59%, and has $326 million in AUM. EWZS replicates the MSCI Brazil Small-Cap Index, and the main holdings are below.
Top 10 Holdings (Seeking Alpha)
There are 76 holdings and an interesting diversification, as the top 10 holdings account for 33%.
Context
Brazil was the worst ETF country two years ago. The scenario changed drastically as characteristics like geopolitical safety, food security, and rare earths are valued in the current landscape. This made the EWZ (the most well-known Brazilian ETF in the world) rise 33% in one year. EWZS rose too, but just 17%!
EWZS vs. EWZ (Seeking Alpha)
This is an asymmetry, and I will explain why.
Brazilian Small Caps x large caps
It's not normal that large caps always outperform small caps. The Brazilian economy is sensitive to commodities, and commodity prices change a lot.
This cyclicality is very interesting now for small caps, which is an initial attraction of this thesis.
Small vs. Large Caps (Azuria)
Better macroeconomic scenario
The Brazilian debt/GDP soared to 66% in the Lula administration and surpassed even that of the Bolsonaro administration (when we had the pandemic).
Brazilian Debt/GDP (Bloomberg)
This is terrible for the economy and explains why the Brazilian central bank holds such a high interest rate.
Result? Brazilian companies have never been so leveraged, and this contaminates the Brazilian small-cap stocks too.
Debt Among Brazilian Companies (Bloomberg, Serasa)
The good news is that the Brazilian central bank is cutting interest rates. This is a tailwind for Brazilian small caps as their financial results and economic environment should improve.
Brazil Interest Rates (TV)
Valuation
At the moment, EWZS trades below EWZ in P/E because EWZ is more heavily weighted in commodities, and hard assets are performing very well.
EWZS vs. EWZ P/E (Koyfin)
But this relationship can be inverted. Now EWZS trades at 7.5x earnings, and just reaching the next target of 9x earnings, we have an interesting upside of 20%. That's a great opportunity, as this level was reached three times recently (2023, 2021, and 2019) and confirms my buy rating.
EWZS Historical P/E (Koyfin)
The trigger for this re-rating is happening right now, in my opinion, as EWZS prices broke through resistance that had been in place for years. Big trends like that are very useful.
Technical Analysis (Koyfin)
Threats to the thesis
The main risk to this thesis is that the great momentum of Brazilian assets is boosted by expectations regarding the presidential elections. If the opposition doesn't defeat President Lula and doesn't conduct fiscal adjustments, prices can fall sharply.
Another big risk that deserves a double check by investors here is that Brazilian large caps usually have low leverage, while small caps usually have high leverage. Brazil has interest rates of 14.5%, and that's a real danger for the portfolio of a conservative investor.
Conclusion
A new cycle is coming, interest rates are falling, and Brazilian small caps are cheaper against large caps and against their history. That's why I'm so confident in Brazilian small caps.
The European Union is a “direct participant” of Russia’s war in Ukraine and therefore cannot serve as a good-faith mediator between the two countries, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday.
“It’s obvious that Europeans do not want to, nor can they, become mediators. Furthermore, they are now effectively direct participants in the war on Kyiv’s side,” Peskov told reporters.
He disparaged Brussels for trying to deal what he called “a crushing blow” to Russia, which he said makes it impossible for the bloc to play a role in peace talks.
European Council president António Costa said last week that he saw “potential” for the EU to negotiate with President Vladimir Putin, provided such efforts are coordinated with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky.
A senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times that Kyiv welcomes “more coordination on the European level” if it can help apply “more pressure” on Russia.
In response, Putin said he would prefer former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder or “someone who has not badmouthed Russia” as the EU’s representative in potential talks.
After Brussels rejected the idea, German media reported that the EU was considering his successor, Angela Merkel, who avoids harsh rhetoric in her criticism of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that both Russia and Ukraine view Washington as the only country able to mediate the conflict, though he welcomed other countries to join the efforts.
Despite the Trump administration trying to position itself as a neutral broker, the United States has been the largest single-country military donor to Ukraine throughout the war, and in October, the White House sanctioned Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/05/14/kremlin-rejects-eu-mediation-in-ukraine-peace-talks-a92758
Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez speaks during a press conference after a signing of an agreement ceremony between Chevron Venezuela and the national government at the Miraflores Palace in Caracas on April 13, 2026. Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, praised on April 13 the progress made in the oil sector regarding foreign investment as part of the signing of agreements with the U.S. giant Chevron to increase crude oil production. (Photo by Juan BARRETO / AFP via Getty Images)
The Venezuelan government announced Wednesday that it has begun a "comprehensive and orderly process" for restructuring its enormous sovereign and state oil company debt.
In a statement, Venezuela's economics and finance ministry said the intention was to "put the economy at the service of the Venezuelan people and free the country from the burden of accumulated debt."
"Venezuela demonstrated solvency throughout the years, fully complying with all its international obligations. This capacity and willingness to meet our financial commitments was impeded from 2017 onward as a result of financial sanctions," the government said.
"For too long, the country has been deprived of normal access to financing, and its economy lost the capacity to invest in health, electricity, water, education, infrastructure, productive recovery, and the well-being of its population."
The restructuring process aims to guarantee substantial debt relief, officials said, which will be used to benefit the country and its population.
"Venezuela will fulfill its commitments sustainably and will do so under the conditions that the Venezuelan people deserve, building a solid path to recover well-being, justice, and social equality," the statement said.
In 2017, during his first presidential term, Donald Trump slapped financial sanctions on Venezuela in a bid to restrict the Maduro regime's access to capital.
In January, an extraordinary U.S. military operation saw American troops capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. He was brought to the U.S., where he was indicted on narco-terrorism conspiracy and other charges alongside his wife Cilia Flores.
Both Maduro and Flores have denied any wrongdoing.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/venezuela-bonds-debt-restructure-maduro-trump-oil.html
Trump says China’s president also pledged ‘strongly’ not to send weapons to Iran, after two-hour meeting between the leaders
Thu 14 May 2026 19.37 CEST
China’s president, Xi Jinping, has warned of “clashes and even conflicts” with the US over Taiwan after meeting Donald Trump in Beijing.
Xi’s remarks, published by China’s foreign ministry after his two-hour meeting with Trump on Thursday morning, said Taiwan was “the most important issue in China-US relations”.
China is keen to put Taiwan at the top of an agenda that risks being overshadowed by the war in Iran and disagreements over trade. Beijing wants the US to reduce its levels of support for the self-governing island, which China claims as part of its territory. Xi has made “unification” with Taiwan a core priority for his legacy and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve that aim.
Trump later said Xi had pledged not to send weapons to Iran, despite recent reports that Chinese arms manufacturers had discussed deals to supply weapons to Tehran.
“He said he’s not going to give military equipment, that’s a big statement,” Trump said, adding that Xi had said it “strongly”. “But at the same time, he said you know they buy a lot of their oil there and they’d like to keep doing that. He’d like to see Hormuz strait opened.”
China has considered sending shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles called Manpads to Iran via third countries in order to mask their origin, US intelligence officials have said. China has denied the reports.
Xi Jinping shakes hands with the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, in Beijing. Photograph: Evan Vucci/Reuters
The Chinese government also said the two leaders discussed the Ukraine conflict and issues on the Korean peninsula.
The White House’s readout of the meeting said the two sides also discussed market access for US firms in China, and fentanyl controls, but these two issues were absent from the Chinese readout. The White House said the two countries had “agreed that the strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy” and that Xi had indicated China could buy more oil from the US to lessen dependence on Iran.
Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, later said the US position on Taiwan was unchanged. He told NBC News: “They always raise it on their side. We always make clear our position, and we move on to the other topics.”
Discussions are not expected to focus, as they have with previous US administrations, on human rights and US-China cooperation on tackling the climate crisis. The US and China together account for nearly half of global emissions.
Maya Wang, the deputy Asia director for Human Rights Watch, said: “President Trump has been pretty hostile to the concept [of human rights] … it would be hard to imagine in a Trump-Xi meeting that human rights would figure meaningfully if at all in their discussions.”
Xi and Trump were meeting in Beijing for a momentous summit that was to pack negotiations on global conflict, international trade and the future of artificial intelligence into just over 24 hours.
Trump arrived at the Great Hall of the People, an imposing Mao-era building that borders the western edge of Tiananmen Square, on Thursday morning for an opening ceremony followed by face-to-face talks with Xi.
Rows of uniformed officers flanked the red carpet laid out in front of the Great Hall as Xi and Trump walked side by side to a lectern to listen to a welcome salute before being cheered by rows of children waving US and Chinese flags. The children received a double thumbs up from Trump and a wave from Xi.
The ceremony concluded with a tightly choreographed performance from the Chinese military’s marching band before Trump and Xi walked up the stairs into China’s national legislature for their first round of bilateral talks.
In opening remarks, Xi noted that 2026 marked 250 years of US independence and said stability in the US-China relationship was necessary for the world.
Donald Trump walks with Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People. Photograph: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
Trump said he and Xi had “known each other for a long time” and Xi was a “great leader”. Trump told Xi: “I say to everybody you’re a great leader. Sometimes people don’t like me saying it, but I say it anyway, because it’s true.”
Xi’s bullish rhetoric on Taiwan echoes language used by China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, in a recent phone call with Rubio.
Trump’s decision to launch strikes against Iran in February, assassinating the leadership of a country with close ties to China and imperilling global energy supplies, has cast a shadow over talks that were supposed to be focused on reaching a trade deal between the world’s two biggest economies.
Rubio said on Air Force One as the Trump team travelled to Beijing that the US would be pushing Beijing for help on the Iran crisis. “We hope to convince them to play a more active role in getting Iran to walk away from what they’re doing now and trying to do now in the Persian Gulf,” he told Fox News. “[China] is both our top political challenge geopolitically and it’s also the most important relationship for us to manage.”
Beijing hoped to use the meeting to recalibrate US-China ties and set a foundation for a stable and, optimistically, predictable trade relationship going forwards.
Julian Gewirtz, a former director for China on the national security council, wrote on X: “Xi presents the search for stability as the central strategic dynamic” of the US-China relationship. “China has shifted from playing defense to stalemating the United States,” Gerwirtz wrote.
Xie Feng, China’s ambassador to the US, said in a column published in the Chinese Communist party’s official newspaper on Thursday: “Against the backdrop of escalating international instability, the strategic significance of Sino-US relations is even more prominent.” Xie said non-interaction between the two superpowers was “not an option”.
It is not clear what concrete outcomes will be achieved at this week’s talks. The Trump administration has talked of establishing a “board of trade” with China to address commercial differences between the countries. Beijing wants to push Trump to soften US support for Taiwan through a shift in rhetoric or reducing arms sales to the self-governing island, although many in Beijing concede that this is unlikely.
Trump has also promised to raise the case of the imprisoned Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai.
Despite the trip lasting barely two days, Xi and Trump will have plenty of time for interaction on this visit, the first of up to four presidential meetings that are expected this year. In the afternoon the two leaders toured Beijing’s Temple of Heaven, a Ming dynasty religious complex that has also been visited by Henry Kissinger and Gerald Ford.
In the evening Trump attended a state banquet at the Great Hall of the People. Roads across Beijing were closed for his motorcade to return to his hotel afterwards, with hundreds of people crowding against barriers to catch a glimpse of their president’s biggest global competitor driving through the Chinese capital.
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at a bilateral meeting. Photograph: Alex Wong/Getty Images
On Trump’s first visit in 2017, he was the first foreign leader in modern Chinese history to be invited to dine inside the Forbidden City, the sprawling palace complex that housed Chinese emperors for hundreds of years.
There are differences from 2017’s state visit. This year, Beijing appears to have made less effort to ensure blue skies ahead of Trump’s arrival. In 2017, factories were ordered to halt production and heavily polluting cars were banned from the roads in the days before Trump’s visit, in an era in which China had declared war on air pollution and made special efforts to clear the skies before important events such as visits of dignitaries and the Beijing Olympics.
Trump walks outside the Great Hall of the People after attending a state banquet with Xi Jinping in Beijing. Photograph: Evan Vucci/Reuters
No such efforts have been made this year. The air quality index in the capital was over 150 on Thursday, well above the World Health Organization’s guidelines for healthy air, shrouding the city in a greyish smog full of pollutants that are harmful to human health.
In recent years China’s fight against air pollution has slowed. That is partly because huge improvements have already been made: last year average levels of PM2.5, the most harmful particulate in air pollution, in Beijing dropped to below 30 for the first time since records began more than a decade ago. But heavily polluted skies remain a fairly common occurrence and a visit from the US president is no longer a reason to clear them.
Because EU countries are not integrating their electricity markets closely enough, the Commission wants to have a say in grid planning going forward. However, member states are increasingly watering down these plans, as the latest negotiations show.
In hardly any other field is the Commission currently trying so hard to impose centralized planning as it is for power grids. Instead of a bottom-up process based on national grid development plans, in future the Commission intends to create a central scenario for electricity and hydrogen highways – which would include the authority to fill in any gaps. However, in the latest negotiations from earlier this week (TEN-E Regulation, authorizations), the Council Presidency is placing more weight on national sensitivities, i.e., the drafting of alternative scenarios.
In this context, the alternative scenarios would stand on an equal footing with the central scenario. They would have to take into account “alternative generation mixes and demand patterns,” as well as any relevant scenarios from the member states. This raises the question of how the new procedure is supposed to differ from the previous EU-wide synthesis of national plans – the TYNDP ten-year grid development plan with its six scenarios.
France is among the countries that fundamentally oppose expanding EU powers. “The Europe of power grids [cannot] be built on the basis of a uniform model that would impose on countries the consequences of assumptions they did not choose,” wrote Laurent Kueny, the top energy official at the Paris Ministry of Ecological Transition, in a trade journal a few days ago. In Kueny's view, even providing for sensitivities would not change that.
A common point of contention among opponents of greater European interconnection is the issue of cost-sharing. Transit countries such as France and Austria would have to bear billions in costs for electricity highways to transmit electricity or hydrogen to countries like Germany, while their citizens would see no benefit from this. Kueny is advocating for an electricity toll. However, the new draft merely instructs transmission system operators in a recital to better illustrate how costs and benefits are distributed among different member states.
A few days ago, the situation was escalated when Swedish Minister for Energy, Business and Industry Ebba Busch instructed the state-owned transmission system operator to halt further modernization of power lines to Denmark. Stockholm is also putting new cables to Finland under review.
Long before that, Sweden had already halted plans for an interconnector to Germany. Busch accuses the Commission of wanting to take billions of euros away from member states – funds generated from managing bottlenecks at national borders – in order to finance the expansion of unwanted power lines. While progress has been made in negotiations in recent weeks, Busch argues, the use of these revenues remains too heavily restricted.
In a joint non-paper, France and Sweden are ultimately calling for a halt to the construction of interconnectors. Together with Bulgaria, Poland and Finland, they are calling for scenarios that also take into account “delays in achieving national targets,” the document states. This brings to mind the German debate over the future development of electricity demand. With regard to expanding the hydrogen network in particular, the five countries warn that investments may become stranded because the hydrogen economy is developing too slowly.
The fact that key data will not be available until late this year is not conducive to an ambitious grid package. By the end of the year, EU member states will be required to meet a key target from the Internal Electricity Market Package: 70% of transmission capacity must be available for European electricity trading. Issues surrounding this target for the Energy Union were a major reason why the Commission used the network package to exert greater pressure for the construction of interconnectors. Network operators have to report annually on progress toward this target.
However, the Europe-wide assessment for this year will not be published until November. A spokesperson for the regulatory agency ACER told Table.Briefings that this is because the assessment is part of a more comprehensive report. By November, the trilogue is expected to be well underway, and the Parliament's Committee on Industry, Research and Energy plans to vote on its negotiating position in September. ACER intends to publish key data at the Florence Forum in late May, the spokesperson said. ACER has recently noted progress toward the 70% target. However, the number of EU member states granted exemptions for 2026 has not changed since the last publication in 2024.
https://table.media/en/europe/talk-of-the-town-en/grid-package-council-cuts-back-on-central-planning
Fallout from the Iran conflict has pushed crude prices higher and renewed focus on oil-weighted basins like the Bakken. East Daley Analytics recently revised our Bakken outlook higher in anticipation of a recovery in drilling activity. While producers have been cautious in recent months, improved price signals should prompt a return to measured growth.
We forecast Bakken crude production will increase 4.1% in 2026 (exit to exit), adding roughly 51 Mb/d over the year. We expect growth will continue to push oil output higher, reaching a peak of about 1.4 MMb/d in October 2029 and then gradually decline (see figure below from Energy Data Studio). We model Bakken rig activity tops out at 37 rigs in February 2027 and then gradually tapers off through 2030.
With the Enbridge’s (ENB) North Dakota line running effectively full and Bridger Pipeline operating well above nameplate capacity, we anticipate incremental barrels will move onto Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL). We project DAPL throughput will increase ~20% by December 2027, or ~97 Mb/d. Some additional volumes could move north on ENB’s Bakken system, though utilization has remained low, averaging only about 21% over the past year.
Bakken gas production also grows as operators lift drilling. Residue gas volumes increase up to 95 MMcf/d more in our revised April outlook.
Additional Bakken gas takeaway capacity is set to come online soon from the Bison Pipeline reversal project, which will add ~300 MMcf/d of egress capacity into the Powder River Basin. The expansion will likely be filled in part by currently flared gas. We estimate average utilization around 250 MMcf/d annually, though weaker downstream demand could temper throughput. At the same time, flaring is expected to decline further as in-basin demand grows, supported by new gas-fired power generation serving North Dakota.
Producers were initially hesitant to drill into the higher WTI price curve, but that concern may be starting to ease. Continental Resources, a leading Bakken operator, announced plans in April to increase its capital budget. Chord Energy (CHRD) and Chevron (CVX) also have recently returned rigs to the North Dakota play.
Bottom Line: The Bakken is positioned for a modest rebound as stronger crude oil prices begin to pull producers back into the basin. Infrastructure capacity appears sufficient to handle incremental volumes, and while activity is picking up, long-term expansion will likely be limited by disciplined capital spending. – Keland Rumsey Tickers: CHRD, CVX, ENB.
'India asks US to extend sanctions waiver on Russian oil': Current deadline expires on 16 May
India has asked the United States (US) to extend current waiver expiry deadline of 16 May on sales of Russian oil already loaded on tankers, according to a report by Bloomberg.
The US Treasury Department had given waiver on sanctions in April on import of Russian crude by India.
Imports from Russia reached 1.98 million barrels per day in March
According to data from intelligence firm Kepler, crude oil imports from Russia averaged 1.98 million or 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in the month of March 2026. This is the highest level since June 2023.
However, in April this figure had fallen to 1.57 million, that is, 15.7 lakh barrels per day, but experts had said that this decline was not due to lack of demand, but rather due to the shutdown carried out for maintenance at Nayara Energy's refinery. It was expected to surge again from the next month.
India will maintain its dependence on Russian oil
Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based consultancy 'Vanda Insights', says that India is trying to buy all the Russian oil it can get.
He stated that as long as there are difficulties in supply from the Persian Gulf, India will maintain its dependence on Russian oil.
Actually, due to the military action by America and Israel against Iran and the closure of the Hormuz Route, supply chains worldwide have been affected.
Refiners hopeful of exemption despite American sanctions
India had earlier reduced purchases from Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil due to fear of American sanctions. Last year, India had to face some restrictions due to pressure from the Donald Trump administration, but equations have changed in the current circumstances.
Officials of Indian refining companies believe that the American exemption granted for oil imports from Russia will be extended.
What is the Hormuz route, why is it important for India?
The Hormuz Route is the world's most important oil route. It is located between Oman and Iran. About 20% of the world's crude oil passes through here.
This route is important for India because oil being shipped from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE comes through this route.
Both Trump and Xi agreed the Strait of Hormuz must be open for the free flow of energy
Published Fri, May 15, 2026 · 06:19 AM — Updated Fri, May 15, 2026 · 11:37 AM
Iran said 30 vessels had crossed the Hormuz strait since the evening of May 13, still far short of the typical daily total of 140 before the war. PHOTO: REUTERS
[NEW DELHI] Oil prices gained more than 1 per cent on Friday (May 15) after President Donald Trump said China wants to buy oil from the US and as concerns persisted over ship attacks and seizures despite Iran saying about 30 vessels had passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude oil futures rose US$1.17, or 1.11 per cent, to US$106.89 a barrel by 0252 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were up US$1.10, or 1.09 per cent, to US$102.27.
Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed interest in purchasing more US oil to reduce China’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, according to the White House. China, never a big buyer of US crude, has not imported any since May 2025 due to a 20 per cent import tariff imposed during the trade war.
Trump also said in an interview with Fox News he would not be much more patient with Iran as he urged Teheran to reach a deal with Washington.
Trump and Xi hold talks on Friday to wrap up a two-day state visit that has featured pomp and business deals.
A ship was reported seized by Iranian personnel off the United Arab Emirates and headed for Iranian waters on Thursday, while the White House said US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed on the need to keep the nearby Strait of Hormuz shipping lane open.
Also, an Indian cargo vessel carrying livestock from Africa to the United Arab Emirates was sunk on Wednesday in waters off the coast of Oman.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said 30 vessels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz since Wednesday evening, still far short of 140 that were typical daily before the war, but a substantial increase if confirmed.
Yang An, analyst at Haitong Futures, said the main driver of oil prices was still tight supply.
“Oil prices swung several times yesterday but still closed near the day’s high,” he said.
“Ships passing through the strait eased some market concerns, but not enough to change the strong trend driven by tight supply.”
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Friday morning that China was being very pragmatic about involvement with Iran, and it was important to China to have the Strait of Hormuz open, in an interview with Bloomberg.
Global oil supply will fall short of total demand in 2026 as inventories are drained at an unprecedented pace, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.
US crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 million barrels for the week ended May 8 on rising exports, the US Energy Information Administration said, although distillate stockpiles rose, in opposition to expectations of a draw. REUTERS
This week, ternary cathode material prices continued their upward trend. On the raw material front, prices of nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and manganese sulfate were largely flat week-on-week. The main driver was the continued sharp rise in spot prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, pushing ternary cathode material prices to a cyclical high.
In terms of transactions, lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices saw a modest pullback in the latter half of the week, creating a pricing opportunity for some manufacturers and resulting in small-batch order placements. On the long-term contract front, payables have shown no significant changes recently.
On the demand side, the domestic EV market is currently in a phase of concentrated stockpiling for new models, with orders rebounding notably. The overseas market is also strong, driven by robust European vehicle sales and stockpiling for new product launches by some brands, collectively boosting orders for domestic cathode manufacturers. In the consumer market, due to the traditional off-season and persistently high raw material prices, demand remains relatively subdued in the near term.
https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/103901790-SMM-AnalysisTernary-Cathode-Outlook-Remains-Positive
Lithuania Faces US Pressure to Resume Belarus Potash Exports Despite Sanctions
US Pressure and Lithuania's Stance on Belarus Potash Exports
By Andrius Sytas
US Involvement and Lithuanian Response
VILNIUS, May 14 (Reuters) - The United States is pressing Lithuania to allow Belarus to use its main port to ship fertiliser exports, currently subject to EU sanctions, the Baltic nation's foreign minister said on Thursday.
Statements from Lithuanian Officials
Asked whether the U.S. is pressuring Vilnius to resume the exports, foreign minister Kestutis Budrys said: "The situation is changing... I have always said that there is no such activity, but today I can say that yes, additional activity has appeared, from the U.S."
However, Budrys told reporters that Lithuania backs EU sanctions on Belarusian potash and would not discuss resuming exports while they remain in force.
The U.S. embassy in Vilnius did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
Background on Belarus Potash Exports and Sanctions
History of Sanctions and Export Routes
Lithuania in 2022 halted all exports by Belaruskali, the world's second-largest producer of the crop fertiliser, after the state-run company was sanctioned by the U.S. in response to a crackdown that followed a disputed presidential election in which President Alexander Lukashenko declared a victory.
Klaipeda Port and International Customers
Belarus used Lithuania's Klaipeda port to export potash, a big cash earner for the landlocked country, to customers which include India, China and Brazil.
EU and US Sanctions Timeline
The European Union also sanctioned Belarusian potash in 2022, in response to the country helping Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.
The U.S. sanctions were removed in March, as Belarus released 250 prisoners in a deal brokered by the United States. The European sanctions are valid until February 2027 and can be extended.
International Reactions and Future Implications
US Perspective on Resuming Exports
U.S. President Donald Trump's Belarus envoy John Coale told Lithuanian national broadcaster LRT in March the resumption of potash exports through Lithuania would be beneficial to the United States.
(Reporting by Andrius Sytas in Vilnius, Editing by William Maclean)
https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/lithuania-us-presses-resumption-belarus-potash-exports/
West Africa’s gold sector is entering 2026 with a recovery outlook, but not a uniform growth story. After a weaker 2025, when production across major markets such as Ghana, Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso declined by 2.4%, output is expected to rebound by 8.0% in 2026. This recovery will be driven mainly by mine restarts, new project ramp-ups and improved operating performance, while risks from security issues, mature mine declines, permitting delays, and policy intervention continue to weigh on the sector.
Ghana remains the anchor of West African gold production and continues to be Africa’s largest gold producer in 2025. However, output was broadly flat, up only 0.5% over 2024, as lower grades and operational issues affected key mines such as Ahafo South, Tarkwa and Iduapriem. These pressures were partly offset by stronger output from Obuasi and Akyem, along with the ramp-up of Shandong Gold’s Namdini project. In 2026, Ghana’s production is expected to recover marginally, supported by Newmont’s Ahafo North, which commenced production in October 2025, continued growth from Namdini, higher output from Asante Gold’s Bibiani, and operational improvements at Obuasi.
However, Ghana’s outlook is increasingly shaped by policy tightening. The government’s decision in April 2026 not to renew Gold Fields’ Damang lease and to take control of the mine signals a stronger focus on domestic value capture and state oversight. The introduction of a sliding-scale royalty regime also reflects the government’s attempt to benefit more from elevated gold prices. At the same time, Ghana’s move to formalise artisanal and small-scale mining through a centralised gold buying and processing model could improve traceability, reduce illicit trading and strengthen responsible production practices. Despite these reforms, Ghana’s longer-term production outlook remains constrained by declining output from mature assets, including Ahafo South.
Mali is expected to be one of the strongest contributors to the region’s 2026 recovery, largely due to the restart and ramp-up of Loulo-Gounkoto. The mine’s disruption in 2025, linked to the dispute over mining conventions and provisional administration, sharply reduced Mali’s output. With operations restarting after the dispute was resolved, Mali’s gold production is forecast to rise significantly by 28% in 2026. Additional support is expected from the Syama Phase I and Fekola Regional projects. However, Mali’s dependence on gold remains a structural risk, as the sector accounts for a major share of GDP, exports and tax revenue. Security risks also remain high, as shown by the January 2026 attack on the Morila gold mine, highlighting the challenges of reviving production in unstable areas.
Seabridge Gold recently filed its interim financial statements and Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 on SEDAR+, alongside corporate updates on its KSM and Snip North projects and the planned Courageous Lake spin-out.
The combination of an updated KSM mineral resource using Tier 1 metal price assumptions, a maiden resource at Snip North, and progress toward spinning out Courageous Lake materially reshapes how investors may view the company’s project portfolio and future options.
What Is Seabridge Gold's Investment Narrative?
To own Seabridge Gold, you have to believe that its large, long‑life projects can eventually be converted into economic mines despite ongoing losses and a very thin cash runway. The latest filings and project updates sharpen that bet but do not fundamentally change it. The updated KSM mineral resource using Tier 1 metal price assumptions, combined with the maiden Snip North resource, strengthens the story that Seabridge controls a cluster of large-scale gold copper assets that could appeal to bigger industry players. At the same time, the Courageous Lake spin‑out plan hints at a more focused KSM Bronson Corridor story, which could become a key near term catalyst if it clarifies funding and project priorities. Against a share price that has already moved very strongly over the past year, the biggest near term risks still look operational and regulatory, particularly delays around KSM permitting and the ongoing Tudor Gold dispute, together with the need for further financing while the business remains unprofitable.
Exploring Other Perspectives
TSX:SEA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
The Simply Wall St Community’s two fair value estimates for Seabridge range from CA$6.60 to CA$66.00, underscoring how far apart private investors can be. Set that against today’s heavy losses, limited cash runway and unresolved permitting issues, and you can see why opinions on how the story plays out are so divided.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-seabridge-gold-tsx-sea-141208187.html
