Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Thursday 16 July 2026
Background Stories on www.commodityintelligence.com

News and Views:






Featured

An Evening With The Future Lord Mayor of London

Photo: Barber-Surgeons' Hall

Back to Top

Macro

Graham's Proposed 'Bone-Crushing' Sanctions Rattle Russian Markets Before Passage

Graham's proposed 'bone-crushing' sanctions rattle Russian markets before passage

Photo: The Moscow Exchange building in Moscow, Russia (Getty Images)

Russia's stock market plunged after reports about a new US sanctions bill, even though the legislation has not yet been passed. Investors have already begun selling off shares amid concerns over the potential impact of fresh restrictions, The Moscow Times reports.

During trading on July 15, the Moscow Exchange Index fell to 2,109.58 points, its lowest level since December 19, 2022.

Despite global oil prices climbing to a one-month high, the Russian market continued to decline. The index was down nearly 3% on the day, bringing its losses since the start of the year to 23%.

As of 3:49 p.m. Moscow time, Gazprom shares had fallen by 2%. Earlier in the session, the stock hit its lowest level since 2008 following reports that China had suspended talks on the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.

The selloff spread to other major Russian companies. Shares of Sberbank fell 1.5%, VTB dropped 3.8%, Rosneft lost 2.9%, Aeroflot declined 2.6%, and Severstal fell 4%. The steepest losses were recorded by VK, whose shares plunged nearly 7% after the state-backed messaging app Max was hit by sanctions.

According to Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov, the main driver of the selloff was reports about a new US sanctions bill targeting Russia.

The legislation, drafted by the late Senator Lindsey Graham, would impose 100% tariffs on India and China if they continue purchasing Russian oil.

The bill also предусматриes potential restrictions on Russia's central bank, major lenders including Sberbank, VTB and Gazprombank, as well as measures targeting Russia's shadow fleet, oil transportation, and the Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG projects.

Graham's sanctions

Following Senator Lindsey Graham's death, the bill proposing sweeping sanctions against Russia gained new momentum, with the White House confirming its willingness to support the legislation.

US President Donald Trump said he believes the chances of the bill being passed are "quite high."

If enacted, the updated legislation would require the US president to impose sanctions and tariffs of up to 100% on countries and companies that purchase Russian energy products or help Russia circumvent existing restrictions.

According to Vladyslav Vlasyuk, the Ukrainian president's commissioner for sanctions policy, the bill combines individual and sectoral sanctions aimed at Russia's financial and energy sectors while also closing loopholes used to evade existing restrictions.


https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/graham-s-proposed-bone-crushing-sanctions-1784127312.html

Back to Top

Hungary Says It's "Closing the Door" on Russia

Hungary is distancing itself from Russia and working to strengthen relations with its Western partners, Defense Minister Romulusz Ruszin-Szendi said, describing the shift as a strategic change in the country's foreign and security policy under Prime Minister Peter Magyar's government.

Speaking at a conference on July 14, Ruszin-Szendi declared that “we are closing the door in the face of the Russians,” arguing that Hungary's decisions must be guided by “the interests and values of the nation and allies.” He said rebuilding trust with allied countries has become a priority, emphasizing that Hungary's long-term interests align with those of its European and transatlantic partners.

According to the defense minister, Moscow has attempted to maintain influence despite Budapest's policy shift. “Now that Hungary has moved away from Moscow, Russia's secret service has tried to come in through the back door,” he said, warning that the country must remain vigilant against such efforts.

The comments reflect a marked departure from the approach of former Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose government was widely regarded as one of the Kremlin's closest partners within the European Union. Under Magyar, Budapest has adopted a more pro-European course while seeking to restore confidence among its allies.

Ruszin-Szendi said Hungary's security priorities are currently centered on Russia's war against Ukraine and the conflict involving the United States and Iran. While the new government has taken a more constructive stance toward both Ukraine and the European Union, it has also maintained a cautious approach on several key issues.

Recent decisions highlight that balancing act. In June, Hungary lifted a nine-month ban on Ukrainian media introduced by the previous administration, a move presented as part of broader efforts to improve relations with Kyiv. At the same time, Prime Minister Peter Magyar urged fellow EU leaders to slow the pace of Ukraine's accession process, arguing that the bloc should take a more measured approach to enlargement.


https://www.novinite.com/articles/239613/Hungary+Says+It%27s+%22Closing+the+Door%22+on+Russia

Back to Top

EU Fails to Strike Russia Sanctions Deal After 3 Days of Talks

Envoys will reconvene next week in a bid to prevent the price cap on Russian crude from ratcheting higher at the end of July. 

BRUSSELS — EU countries failed for a third consecutive day on Wednesday to agree on a new package of sanctions against Russia, forcing them to temporarily freeze the bloc’s price cap on Russian crude for another week.

Ambassadors deferred further discussions to July 22 while agreeing to temporarily maintain the oil price cap at $44.10 per barrel until July 23, two EU diplomats familiar with the matter said.

Ireland, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, scheduled a new meeting of EU ambassadors on July 22.

Without another extension next week, the cap will automatically bounce higher because oil prices have risen due to the war in Iran — handing Russian President Vladimir Putin a windfall. The European Commission is legally obliged to recalculate the price ceiling after July 15 but the new cap would become effective only on Aug. 1, giving the executive some leeway.

It was the third day in a row that EU ministers or ambassadors had met, only to fail to agree on a 21st round of sanctions over Russia’s four-year war of aggression against Ukraine.

The EU is struggling to maintain unity on the penalties even as Ukraine fights back against Russia with a drone campaign that is inflicting heavy casualties and deep strikes that have knocked out several oil refineries. Kyiv’s pushback has led to widespread fuel shortages in Russia and has forced Moscow to scour world markets for diesel to import.

All for one

Because sanctions require unanimity among the EU’s 27 capitals, national governments can put a price on their consent by seeking other concessions. Former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was a notorious blocker of such support for Ukraine, although it was hoped Budapest would prove less obstructive after he was ousted by Péter Magyar earlier this year.

This time, however, Austria and Greece have broken cover to throw a wrench into proceedings.

Vienna has proposed a deal under which Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank would be compensated for what it calls the illegal €2.44 billion expropriation of its Russian operations. The ask would entail seizing and selling €2.1 billion in frozen Russian assets located in Austria; the property ultimately belongs to a company owned by Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, a beneficiary of Raiffeisen’s expropriation.

Under the plan, its advocates say, a substantial share of the recovered funds would be invested in a reconstruction fund for Ukraine. In the longer term Vienna hopes the step will deter Moscow from again seizing the Russian subsidiaries of EU companies.

While fellow ambassadors have been reluctant to support the idea, three people with knowledge of the talks told POLITICO that a solution was found on Tuesday, but declined to provide additional details.

Greece, meanwhile, has raised concerns over earlier EU restrictions on trading Russian liquefied natural gas after a ban was agreed in October 2025. These issues have yet to be resolved, according to the people, who were granted anonymity to discuss the closed-door talks.

Earlier changes to the 21st sanctions package included scrapping a proposed ban on imports of Russian fish and weakening restrictions on granting visas to former Russian military personnel.

Despite the repeated delays, the 21st package is generally seen as a strong one. It includes 250 new listings of individuals involved in Russia’s war effort and would also sanction more banks and vessels linked to oil smuggling.


https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-russia-oil-price-cap-sanctions-delayed/

Back to Top

Oil and Gas

This ETF Captures the Entire Opportunity in Oil

This ETF Captures the Entire Opportunity in Oil

By Sean Brodrick

The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran collapsed over the weekend.

Iran resumed missile and drone attacks, and the U.S. responded with another wave of massive airstrikes.

We've been here before. And we know what comes next: a new peace deal.

That next peace deal is your opportunity to buy an ETF for higher-for-longer oil prices.

Why? Because President Trump has repeatedly said a deal with Iran was “imminent,” “close” or “just around the corner” at least 38 times — according to CNN’s tally — only to watch negotiations unravel days later.

Odds are we'll hear another peace announcement before long.

When that happens, oil stocks will pull back … again.

But not for long.

My view has long been that this conflict is likely to last much longer than the market thinks possible.

Even temporary ceasefires won't erase the damage that's already been done to global energy markets.

The longer this conflict drags on, the more the world's oil trade will be permanently rewired.

Countries aren’t going to wait on diplomacy.

They find new suppliers, sign long-term contracts, build new infrastructure and reduce dependence on unstable regions.

That creates a multi-year opportunity for North American energy producers.

Here are three reasons why.

1. North America Is Safely Outside the Blast Zone

The biggest competitive advantage isn't bigger reserves or better technology. It's geography.

North American producers operate entirely outside the Middle East conflict zone.

Their pipelines, refineries and production facilities are protected by one of the safest security umbrellas in the world.

Their supply chains are domestic.

Their infrastructure isn't dependent on vulnerable shipping lanes or chokepoints thousands of miles away.

That kind of stability commands a premium during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

Global investors increasingly want energy exposure without geopolitical headaches, and North America offers exactly that.

2. America Is the New OPEC

The U.S. isn't simply producing more oil. It's exporting more than ever.

For the week ending July 3, U.S. crude production reached a record 13.86 million barrels per day, and government forecasts point to even higher output next year.

Exports have surged alongside production. Crude exports recently reached an all-time monthly high of roughly 5.6 million barrels per day.

Including refined petroleum products, total energy exports now exceed 13 million barrels per day.

...


https://weissratings.com/en/weiss-ratings-daily/this-etf-captures-the-entire-opportunity-in-oil

Back to Top

Japan Refiners to Diversify Crude Sources, Explore Support for Hormuz Bypass Routes

Japanese oil refiners will diversify supply sources while exploring ways to support Middle Eastern producers, including pipeline expansion projects that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the head of an industry group said on Wednesday.

Here are details:

"It is of the utmost importance to establish a viable alternative to crude oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz, rather than simply replacing crude oil sourced from the Middle East," Shunichi Kito, the president of Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ), told a news conference.

Middle Eastern producers, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have asked the Japanese government to participate in or support plans to expand oil pipelines to bypass the strait, Kito said.

Kito, also the chairman of refiner Idemitsu Kosan, said U.S. crude is one diversification option.

But given the current configuration of Japanese refineries, which are better suited to Middle Eastern grades, it is difficult to handle large volumes of U.S. crude at present, Kito said.

Kito hopes the government's energy resilience package, due to be finalized by the end of August, will help ensure a stable energy supply while strengthening industrial competitiveness.

Drawing lessons from the Iran crisis, the oil industry will seek to strengthen supply chains by deepening ties with oil-producing countries, securing tanker capacity and improving refinery flexibility, Kito said.

Kito declined to comment on a possible naphtha stockpiling scheme, which Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa recently said the government would consider.

The UAE plans to accelerate construction of a new oil pipeline to double its export capacity via the port of Fujairah by 2027. Saudi Arabia is considering expanding the capacity of its oil pipeline to the western Red Sea coast.


https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2026/07/japan-refiners-to-diversify-crude-sources-explore-support-for-hormuz-bypass-routes/

Back to Top

IEA Warns World Has Just Weeks to Avoid Hormuz Economic Shock

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jul 16, 2026, 2:30 AM CDT

The world has just a few weeks before taking an economic toll from the re-escalation in the Middle East and the new halt to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The situation in the region has sharply deteriorated in the past week as Iran struck commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including two supertankers operated by the Abu Dhabi national oil company of the UAE, and the U.S. carried out a series of strikes on Iran and reinstated a naval blockade to prevent Iran-linked tankers from loading and exporting Iran’s oil.

Tanker traffic through Hormuz, which had just started to rebound in the three weeks following the signing of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, came to an abrupt halt late last week, with daily transits plunging to five-week lows. The previous rush of Middle Eastern producers to evacuate their oil amassed in the Gulf since the war began has stopped, and oil prices have risen by about 13% since last Friday.

The oil, bond, and equity markets started pricing in additional disruption to oil flows, and economists and governments are bracing themselves for another fuel price and inflation spike.

“If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed we may again have some difficulty for global economies, including those in the region and developing nations and Asia,” Birol told Bloomberg in an interview published on Thursday.

“It is not months, it is weeks” after which the strait needs to be “fully open, unconditionally open,” to spare the global economy from new challenges and slowdown, the head of the IEA said.

Currently, the real stress in the oil market is not crude, but very tight fuel markets, economists and oil analysts say. Meanwhile, Arsenio Dominguez, the Secretary General of the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO), said that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is now too dangerous for ship owners and operators to brave the chokepoint.


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-Warns-World-Has-Just-Weeks-to-Avoid-Hormuz-Economic-Shock.html

Back to Top

Precious Metals

Mining Shares Lead FTSE Falls as China Growth Slows, Precious Metals Retreat

Mining shares lead FTSE falls as China growth slows, precious metals retreat

Mining stocks fell on Wednesday after weaker-than-expected Chinese economic growth raised fresh concerns about demand from the world's biggest consumer of industrial metals.

China's economy grew 4.3% in the second quarter, down from 5.0% in the first three months of the year and marking its weakest pace of expansion in three years, prompting investors to sell mining shares.

Precious metals also gave back some of the previous day's gains as risk appetite improved and rate expectations eased following softer US inflation.

Precious metals producer Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) led the declines, falling more than 3%, while gold miners Hochschild Mining PLC (LSE:HOC, OTCQX:HCHDF) and Endeavour Mining PLC (LSE:EDV, TSX:EDV, OTCQX:EDVMF) were also among the biggest fallers in the FTSE 350 resources sector.

Copper miner Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO) lost more than 2%, while Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) and Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) also traded lower.

The weaker sentiment came despite relatively stable copper prices. Gold slipped 0.8% to US$4,021.44 an ounce, while silver fell 0.9% to US$58.13 an ounce.

Although copper prices were little changed, investors focused on the implications of slower Chinese growth for future demand. China accounts for more than half of global refined copper consumption and is a major buyer of iron ore and other industrial metals, making its economic performance a key driver of mining shares.


https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/mining-shares-lead-ftse-falls-081200539.html

Back to Top

Base Metals

First Quantum Weighs Minority Sale of Taca Taca Copper Project in Argentina

First Quantum Minerals is considering selling a minority interest in its Taca Taca copper project in Argentina, according to a report published on July 15, 2026, by Mining.com. The Vancouver-based company is conducting a process for the potential sale, as reported by Bloomberg, which cited unnamed sources. Potential bidders include Rio Tinto and Japanese trading houses Mitsubishi Corp. and Mitsui & Co. Both First Quantum and Rio Tinto declined to comment. The process is in its early stages, and no transaction is certain.

The Taca Taca project is one of the world's largest undeveloped copper deposits, located near the Chilean border. At peak capacity, it is expected to produce over 320,000 tonnes of copper annually, representing roughly 1.5% of current global mine supply. First Quantum's development plans indicate an initial investment of about $4.2 billion for a 40-million-tonne-per-year operation, with a future expansion to 60 million tonnes annually raising total capital spending to approximately $5.25 billion. The mine is projected to produce around 291,000 tonnes of copper per year during its first decade after expansion, over a 35-year mine life. Construction is expected to create up to 4,000 jobs, with about 2,000 permanent operating positions once production begins.

Building a project of this scale requires substantial capital, making partnerships a common approach to sharing development costs and risk. The potential transaction highlights intensifying competition for large-scale copper assets as miners seek long-life projects to supply an increasingly constrained market. Argentina has become a hotspot for mining investment after President Javier Milei introduced tax, customs, and foreign-exchange incentives, though infrastructure constraints remain a challenge for new developments.

First Quantum is considered a strong project developer in the mining industry but is still recovering from the closure of its flagship Cobre Panamá mine in late 2023 following widespread protests. The company already has an established relationship with Rio Tinto; in 2023, they agreed to jointly develop the La Granja copper project in Peru after First Quantum acquired a majority interest from Rio.


https://www.indexbox.io/blog/first-quantum-minerals-considers-sale-of-minority-stake-in-taca-taca-copper-project/

Back to Top

Chile’s Codelco Expects Flat Copper Output in Coming Years, Chairman Says


By Fabian Cambero

SANTIAGO, July 15 (Reuters) – Chile’s state-run copper miner Codelco expects production in the coming years to stay similar to current levels, chairman Bernardo Fontaine said on ‌Wednesday, when asked if the company was on track to meet its target of 1.7 million metric tons a year by 2030.

The miner is working to recover ‌from a slump in 2022 and ⁠2023 when production fell ⁠to two-decade lows. Last year’s production at Codelco’s own mines stood at 1.33 million tons.

“It is very possible that it sits at a production rate quite similar to the one it has today,” Fontaine told a congressional committee.

He ⁠added that the company’s ⁠structural projects, designed to counter declining ore grades, had faced unexpected delays and costs.

The El Abra copper mine, where Codelco holds a ‌49% stake alongside majority-owner Freeport McMoRan, could be a good option to focus investment, he noted.

The U.S. miner has planned a $7.5 billion expansion project ⁠at the mine.

“It has a very significant investment project, so it must be evaluated very carefully. Perhaps that ⁠is the ‌best project whre we could invest ⁠whatever resources we are able to get,” ‌Fontaine said.

Chile’s copper agency Cochilco expects to release ⁠a preliminary audit of Codelco’s production in September, after scrutiny over whether the company improperly included some 20,000 metric tons of copper in a 2025 production report.

(Reporting by Fabian Cambero, Editing by Daina Beth Solomon)


https://wtaq.com/2026/07/15/chiles-codelco-expects-flat-copper-output-in-coming-years-chairman-says/

Back to Top

Antofagasta Backs View as Predicts Copper Output Rise in Rest of 2026

(Alliance News) - Antofagasta PLC on Wednesday affirmed its 2026 outlook, but reported a decline in second-quarter production.

Antofagasta shares were 3.3% lower at 3,715.00 pence each in London on Wednesday morning, the worst FTSE 100 index performer.

The producer of copper and by-products in Chile said it was "another consistent performance" in the second quarter.

Second-quarter copper production was 0.7% lower on-quarter at 142,000 tonnes from 143,000 tonnes. This time last year, Anto reported second-quarter copper output of 160,100 tonnes.

"We delivered another consistent performance in Q2, with copper production in line with the previous quarter and continued cash cost discipline across the business," Chief Executive Officer Ivan Arriagada said.

Copper sales fell 4.5% on-quarter to 130,800 tonnes from 137,000 tonnes in the first three months of the year.

Gold production declined 0.4% on-quarter to 46,300 ounces, but molybdenum output was 3.3% higher at 3,100 tonnes. Antofagasta produces gold and molybdenum as by-products of its copper mining.

Looking ahead, Antofagasta still expects annual copper production in the range of 650,000 to 700,000 tonnes, an outcome which ranges from a 0.6% decline to a 7.1% rise.

The CEO added: "Full-year guidance remains unchanged, with copper production expected to increase through the remainder of the year, supported by higher ore throughput and improving grades at both Los Pelambres and Centinela.

"Given inflationary pressures persist across the mining industry, following external disruptions in the oil and other feedstock markets, we remain focused on supply chains to ensure security of sourcing, disciplined cost control, operational excellence and the safe execution of our growth projects."

Arriagada said copper's fundamentals "remain strong" with prices around record highs, climbing to above USD14,000 a tonne earlier this year, according to London Metal Exchange data.

By Eric Cunha, Alliance News news editor


https://shareprices.com/news/antofagasta-backs-view-as-predicts-copper-output-rise-in-rest-of-2026-etpo9csjzrfg0ma/

Back to Top

Trekor Posts Stable Q2 Copper Output and Advances Florence Ramp-Up

Taseko Mines (TSE:TKO) has shared an update.

Trekor Metals reported second-quarter output of 30.3 million pounds of copper and 559 thousand pounds of molybdenum from its Gibraltar mine, alongside 5.2 million pounds of copper cathode from its ramping-up Florence Copper operation. Copper sales reached 32.2 million pounds from Gibraltar and 5.3 million pounds from Florence, with 2026 production guidance for both assets reaffirmed.

Management highlighted stable operating performance at Gibraltar despite elevated diesel and explosives costs, underscoring the mine’s consistent production from the Connector Pit. At Florence, the wellfield and SX/EW plant are now running at steady state, with 110 production wells in operation and further wellfield expansion underway, positioning Trekor to increase U.S. cathode output and strengthen its copper production profile through the remainder of the year.

More about Taseko Mines

Trekor Metals Limited is a multi-asset copper producer with operations in Canada and the U.S., focused on its 100%-owned Gibraltar open-pit mine in British Columbia and the in-situ recovery Florence Copper facility in Arizona. The company also produces molybdenum as a byproduct at Gibraltar and targets steady, long-life copper production for global concentrate and cathode markets.


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/TGB/pressreleases/3295053/trekor-posts-stable-q2-copper-output-and-advances-florence-ramp-up/

Back to Top

Company Incorporated in England and Wales, Partnership number OC344951 Registered address: Commodity Intelligence LLP The Wellsprings Wellsprings Brightwell-Cum-Sotwell Oxford OX10 0RN.

Commodity Intelligence LLP is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The material is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only.

Officers and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may from time to time have 'long' or 'short' positions in the securities of companies mentioned herein. No part of this material may be redistributed without the prior written consent of Commodity Intelligence LLP.

© 2026 - Commodity Intelligence LLP