Investors brace for a bumpy ride as President-elect Donald Trump’s second term gets underway on Monday, bringing the promise of significant policy shifts — including lighter regulation and tax cuts.
Those two priorities have Wall Street upbeat, while cooling inflation and strong earnings have also fueled investor optimism. This past week, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) clocked its best weekly performance since the election. Since Nov. 5, the S&P 500 has climbed 3.6%.
Yet some areas of the market could be at risk, as Trump’s unpredictable approach is largely expected to trigger market volatility.
In recent weeks, I’ve spoken with several top CEOs and Wall Street analysts about what Trump 2.0 means for businesses and investors. Here’s what they told me about the incoming administration’s expected impact across various sectors.
Winning trades under Trump: Financials, industrials, airlines, crypto
Financials
Financials is viewed as a top trade as investors bet on looser regulation and increased M&A activity. Just this week, the nation’s largest banks reported a surge in corporate profits.
"There has been a meaningful shift in CEO confidence, particularly following the results of the US election," Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon said on the bank’s earnings call. “It feels like we have a tailwind going into 2025."
Meanwhile, JPMorgan (JPM) CFO Jeremy Barnum cited a “significant amount of increase of optimism in the overall environment,” telling reporters following the bank’s earnings results that “we’re in an animal-spirits moment right now.”
“We need to have a more level, less volatile regulatory environment,” Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, told me on Yahoo Finance’s Morning Brief. “Having banks manage their business on whether or not [Senator] Elizabeth Warren is going to attack them or not is absurd. You can't run a business that way.”
Gabelli Funds portfolio manager Mac Sykes expects lighter oversight of the banking industry to be a catalyst for the group, telling Yahoo Finance that deregulation will “benefit the banks.”
“There was a 10% hit that was coming [from Basel III endgame], and that probably will go to neutral,” Sykes said. He also added that increased M&A within the sector will allow smaller players to take advantage of synergies, an outcome that’s being “underappreciated by investors.”
Industrials
Goldman Sachs analyst Joe Ritchie told me last month that the industrial sector is gaining confidence after months of contraction, adding “several companies are expecting better growth in 2025 … It’s only a matter of time before it happens.”
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Donald Trump is used to managing debt. But not like this.
As a real estate developer, Trump relied heavily on borrowed money to fund projects. Trouble paying back his debts contributed to six business bankruptcies. Trump battled back by writing off some loans, refinancing others, finding new lenders, and changing his business model.
The public debt Trump will inherit as the 47th president is a completely different problem.
The national debt will exceed $36 trillion when he takes office on Jan. 20, up from $20 trillion when he started his first term in 2017. As a percentage of GDP, debt held by the public has jumped from 75% in 2017 to 96% today. These numbers will only get worse. Refinancing is not an option and a federal government bankruptcy is unthinkable.
The main question is when markets will start punishing Uncle Sam for profligate borrowing — and it might already be happening.
Since last September, the Federal Reserve has cut short-term interest rates by a full percentage point, yet long-term rates have risen by a full point. “This is highly unusual,” Torsten Sløk, chief economist at private equity firm Apollo, wrote in his Jan. 7 newsletter. “The market is telling us something.” (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)
The bond market doesn’t explain itself. But one factor behind rising long-term rates could be endless borrowing by the Treasury Department. If borrowers issue more debt than investors can absorb, rates have to rise. Rates could also be ticking up because of concerns about future inflation. Whatever the reason, higher rates mean higher borrowing costs for home and car buyers, and for businesses.
And oh yeah, the US government has to pay more too, making its fiscal woes even worse.
This debt pinch will hit Trump’s agenda in three ways.
First, the government has hit its borrowing limit, which means Congress will need to raise the limit by late spring or early summer. That could be an ugly battle, with some GOP budget hawks holding out, threatening a US default.
“Policymakers will ultimately avert default, but the political dynamics on Capitol Hill could produce one of the shakier debt ceiling dramedies in recent memory,” investing firm BTIG explained in a Jan. 6 analysis.
Second, a debt ceiling showdown could trigger another downgrade of US debt. Standard & Poor’s downgraded US debt one notch after a debt-ceiling standoff in 2011. Fitch did the same after a similar showdown in 2023, and Moody’s changed its US ratings outlook to negative from stable that same year. Downgrades haven’t damaged US creditworthiness yet, but markets are getting more prickly.
Mumbai, Jan 19 (IANS) The market outlook for next week will be guided by the Donald Trump factor, Q3 FY25 results, foreign institution investors (FIIs), rupee vs dollar and crude oil prices.
Trump will be sworn in as the 47th US President on January 20, as investors keenly observe upcoming tariff announcements. The global market may remain volatile in the coming week, according to market watchers.
“Looking ahead, the incoming US president’s policies and comments will be keenly watched with a focus on tariffs. Higher inflation in Japan or tighter policy from BoJ will weigh on market sentiments,” according to experts.
Over 240 companies will announce their quarterly earnings next week. The market will keep an eye on the results of Adani Green Energy, HDFC Bank, One 97 Communication (Paytm), Zomato, IDBI Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Tata Technologies, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Indigo, among others
The primary market will see four new IPOs opening for subscription in the coming week, out of which three will be from the small and medium enterprises (SME) segment.
The Indian stock market witnessed a decline in the trading session from January 13 to January 17. Nifty fell 228.30 points or 0.97 per cent to close at 23,203.20 and Sensex fell 759.58 points or 0.98 per cent to close at 76,619.33. During this period, the Nifty Bank index closed at 48,540.60, down 193.55 points or 0.40 per cent.
Apart from this, the last week was full of ups and downs for Nifty Midcap stocks and the index closed at 54,607.65 with a gain of 21.90 points or 0.04 per cent.
Nifty declined for the second consecutive week, driven by persistent selling pressure. The index is trading below its 21-week and daily exponential moving average and has slipped under the ascending trendline, signalling a bearish sentiment, said experts.
Buying may emerge if the index reclaims 23,400, potentially pushing it to 23,700.
FIIs sold shares worth Rs 3,318.06 crore on January 17, while domestic institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 2,572.88 crore on the same day. FII sentiment continues to remain negative. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have sold Indian equities worth Rs 44,396 crore so far in January.
–IANS
skt/na/dpb
INPEX has been offered eight production license awards in Norway through its subsidiary INPEX Idemitsu Norge AS (IIN) as part of the Awards in Predefined Areas (APA) 2024. The awarded licenses are PL 1263, PL 318 D (an extension of PL 318), PL 1264, PL 1257 and PL 636 D (an extension of PL 636) located between the northern North Sea and the southern Norwegian Sea, and PL 1276, PL 1274, PL 1194 C (an extension of PL 1194) located in the northern Norwegian Sea. The annual APA licensing rounds aim to promote further oil and gas exploration in previously explored areas by allowing applications to be submitted for any acreage within predefined areas where production licenses have not been awarded or where previous licenses have been surrendered. IIN was offered licenses PL 1263 and PL 1264 as operator, bringing the total number of licenses operated by IIN to three.
IIN owns interests in numerous licenses in the northern Norwegian Sea, northern North Sea and Barents Sea. The company is involved in stable production operations at the Snorre and Fram oil fields in the northern North Sea while actively promoting exploration activities. The eight licenses most recently offered will contribute to the further expansion of INPEX Norwegian business portfolio considering the future potential of jointly developing these assets with existing assets in the surrounding area.
Furthermore, through the offer of two license awards as operator, INPEX aims to enhance IIN’s operational capabilities and actively promote its business in Norway.
The licenses are also expected to enhance the resilience of INPEX’s upstream business, which is one of the initiatives outlined in the INPEX Vision @2022 announced in February 2022. Through IIN, INPEX will continue to actively engage in the exploration, development and production of natural gas and crude oil in Norway.
Source: INPEX
Turkish Petroleum (TPAO), a state-owned energy company in Türkiye, is ready to “invest billions of US dollars in Libya’s offshore fields with immense potential,” Director General Ahmet Turkoglu stated.
Attending the Libya Energy and Economic Summit (LEES) in Tripoli, Turkoglu gave talks in a panel discussion titled “Libya: At the Crossroads of Global Energy Trade,” on Sunday.
Highlighting Libya’s ambition to produce 2 million barrels of oil per day, Turkoglu expressed confidence that the country is capable of achieving much more.
“As TPAO, we also believed in it and invested in the best opportunities in the past, but unfortunately, we had to leave. Now, we plan to rebuild our relationships and are ready to invest billions of dollars in this immense potential,” Turkoglu said.
‘Immense potential in Libya’s offshore fields’
Turkoglu underscored the promising prospects in Libya’s offshore fields, remarking, “We are ready to invest in this potential—be it through exploring new blocks or enhancing the performance and efficiency of current fields.”
Addressing the challenges faced by foreign investors, Turkoglu stressed the need for an accessible, competitive, and transparent market in Libya. “Market entry should be easy and fair, enabling all players to compete and contribute to Libya’s prosperity,” he emphasized.
Turkoglu noted some recent improvements but called for further progress, highlighting sustainability, predictability financial alignment, and streamlined operations as essential. “These advancements would make Libya an attractive destination for new investors and foster long-term collaboration. The potential is indeed remarkable, and if the environment is structured as a win-win for Libya and investing companies, the outcome will be highly beneficial,” Turkoglu concluded.
Libya, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), ranks among the world’s top 10 countries with the largest proven oil reserves, boasting approximately 48.4 billion barrels, according to OPEC data.
Libya is also rich in natural gas resources, with proven reserves estimated at around 1.5 trillion cubic meters (396.25 trillion gallons).
Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly met with Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawi to discuss and review key updates on the ministry’s projects and initiatives.
During the meeting, Minister Badawi highlighted the major achievements of the petroleum and mineral resources sectors over the last six months (July–December 2024), with a focus on increasing production rates.
He reported that production rates have risen to 1.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboe/d) through the drilling of 105 new wells, comprising 95 oil wells and 10 natural gas wells. The daily added production includes 63,700 barrels of oil and condensates, along with 271 million cubic feet (mcf) of natural gas. These efforts are expected to save $1.5 billion in import costs every six months, starting in January 2025.
During his presentation, Badawi referred to the efforts made to pay the dues of various partners and stop their accumulation, in an effort to resume the work and activities of major companies operating in this field, in addition to encouraging more national investments in the petroleum sector, and offering global increases and promising investment opportunities in this vital sector.
Badwi further highlighted the ongoing efforts to advance the petroleum and mineral resources sector, including the completion of three-dimensional seismic survey programs for new areas, especially in the Western Desert and the Western Mediterranean, as well as the preparation of a group of new agreements expected to be signed during the second half of 2024/25.
For his part, Madbouly highlighted the state’s interest in the petroleum sector and its keenness to provide more incentives and facilities to various investors in this promising sector, to attract more investments, which will contribute to increasing the volume of production of various petroleum products, and meet various consumer and development needs.
https://egyptoil-gas.com/news/egypt-boosts-oil-gas-production-to-1-4-mmboe-d/
Kepler Capital analyst Bertrand Hodee maintained a Hold rating on BP p.l.c. (BP) on January 17 and set a price target of p440.00. The company’s shares closed last Friday at p434.30.
According to TipRanks, Hodee is a 5-star analyst with an average return of 17.8% and a 63.04% success rate.
Currently, the analyst consensus on BP p.l.c. is a Moderate Buy with an average price target of p478.23, which is a 10.12% upside from current levels. In a report released on January 15, Berenberg Bank also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a £4.40 price target.
BP market cap is currently £67.66B and has a P/E ratio of 33.55.
Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 25 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is positive on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders buying their shares of BP in relation to earlier this year.
BP p.l.c. (BP) Company Description:
BP is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil around the world. In 2019, it produced 2.3 million barrels of liquids and 9.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day, including volumes from its 20% ownership interest in Rosneft. At year-end 2019, reserves stood at 19.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 59% of which are liquids. The company operates refineries with a capacity of 1.9 million barrels of oil per day.
The incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump is pushing for regime change in Venezuela, citing Nicolas Maduro's rigged elections, political repression and escalating threats to American territories, according to American media reports on Saturday.
Axios reported that Trump’s team advocates Maduro’s removal without military action.
'We wouldn't mind one bit seeing Maduro being neighbors with Assad in Moscow,' said a foreign policy adviser.
The country, under Maduro's leadership, has caused the largest migration crisis in the Western Hemisphere, with nearly 8 million people fleeing in the past decade.
In his confirmation hearing to be Trump's secretary of state, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio condemned Maduro for leading a 'narco-trafficking organization' and strengthening alliances with adversaries like Russia, China and Iran.
Trump remains skeptical of oil deals with Venezuela, asserting: 'We don't have to buy energy from Venezuela.'
The situation escalated in January when Maduro threatened to invade Puerto Rico, prompting Gov. Jennifer Gonzalez-Colon to seek a response from Trump.
A Trump adviser laughed off the threat, saying, 'He's going to invade Puerto Rico? With what?'
By Gizem Nisa Cebi
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
19 January 2025 15:19
A feasibility study for the construction of an oil pipeline between Hungary and Serbia has been completed.
This was announced by Hungary's Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Péter Szijjártó, on January 19, Caliber.Az reports.
The pipeline will connect the oil pipeline systems of Hungary and Serbia. According to the minister, the investment will take approximately three years to complete and will allow Serbia to diversify its oil supplies and reduce its dependence on Croatia.
"During today's phone conversation with Serbia's Minister of Energy, Dubravka Đedović, we agreed to accelerate our joint investments in energy and energy security," the politician stated.
As Caliber.Az recalls, the US has imposed major sanctions against the Serbian petroleum industry Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) in January 2025, which enjoys majority ownership by Russian gas companies Gazprom Neft and Gazprom. The new wave of sanctions that were introduced by the outgoing US administration are mainly targeting Russian oil companies, as well as over 100 oil tankers that are now partially stranded in the oceans with their cargo.
The construction of the pipeline between Hungary and Serbia is expected to be completed by 2026. The new branch will be docked to the Druzhba oil pipeline, one of the world's longest pipelines stretching over 4,000 kilometres starting from Russia with end-points in Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Germany.
By Nazrin Sadigova
DUBAI, Jan 18 (Reuters) – Iran unveiled an underground naval missile base at an undisclosed Gulf location on Saturday, state TV said, two days before the start of Donald Trump’s second term as president.
It was unveiled at a time when tension with Washington is widely expected to rise. Iranian leaders are concerned that Trump might empower Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, while tightening U.S. sanctions on its oil industry through his “maximum pressure” policy.
State television showed Revolutionary Guards chief General Hossein Salami visiting the secret base during war games. He said it was one of several built underground for vessels capable of launching long-range missiles and carry out distant warfare.
“We assure the great nation of Iran that their young people are capable of coming out honorable and victorious from a battle on the seas against enemies big and small,” Salami said.
State television said the base was built at a depth of 500 meters (yards) somewhere in the Gulf and it showed tunnels with long rows of what it said were a new version of Taregh-class radar-evading speedboats which can launch cruise missiles.
Earlier this month, Iran started military exercises that are due to last two months and have already included war games in which the Revolutionary Guards defended nuclear installations in Natanz against mock attacks by missiles and drones.
Iran, which says its ballistic missiles are an important deterrent and retaliatory force against the U.S. and Israel, has in the past unveiled several underground “missiles cities.”
(Reporting by Dubai newsroom, Editing by Timothy Heritage)
https://gcaptain.com/iran-unveils-new-underground-naval-base-amid-tension-with-us-and-israel/
Two months ago, Nigeria’s beleaguered energy sector witnessed a very significant event: the Dangote Oil Refinery began producing gasoline and selling it domestically to Nigeria's state oil firm, Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), marking the first time in decades Africa’s largest oil producer is refining its own crude.
The state-of-the-art $20.5 billion refinery was launched in January 2024, but only began producing gasoline in September, expected to reach full operations in November. The giant refinery has a capacity to process 650,000 barrels of crude per day, considerably bigger than any refinery in Europe and more than enough for Nigeria’s needs. To sweeten the deal further, the facility is buying crude and selling refined fuels in Nigeria in the local currency, saving the country’s much-needed foreign exchange, especially the US dollar.
But now Africa’s largest refinery is beginning to disrupt Europe’s Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) markets. According to OPEC, the Dangote refinery has cut down Nigeria's imports of petroleum products from Europe. According to experts, the Dangote refinery might end the decades-long gasoline trade from Europe to Africa, valued at $17 billion per year.
“The ongoing operational ramp-up efforts at Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery and its gasoline (petrol) exports to the international market will likely weigh further on the European gasoline market,” the report states. “Continued gasoline production in Nigeria, a country that has relied heavily on imports to meet its domestic fuel needs in the past, will most likely continue to free up gasoline volumes in international markets which will call for new destinations and flow adjustments for the extra volumes going forward.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-Nigerias-20B-Refinery-Disrupts-European-Markets.html
Bhubaneswar: There is a possibility of finding lithium deposits in Odisha, Pankaj Kumar, deputy director general of eastern region, Geological Survey of India (GSI), said here on Sunday.
"Though we have not found anything big so far, there are some indications of lithium deposits in the state's Eastern Ghats and Nayagarh district. We cannot say anything more. After the study is completed, we can speak more on the matter," he said on the sidelines of the 64th meeting of Central Geological Programming Board (CGPB) here.Lithium plays a crucial role in making rechargeable batteries, which power countless electronic devices, electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Lithium compounds are also used in ceramics, glass manufacturing and lubricating greases and in making medicines.Official sources said GSI is using drone-based technology for the lithium study. On a pilot basis, GSI has taken up two projects — one in Rajasthan and another in Odisha. "It has started work on a copper project in Mayurbhanj and graphite in Nayagarh district," said an official.V L Kantha Rao, secretary, mines ministry, said their major thrust is to search for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt and nickel in the country. "Because the country urgently needs these critical minerals for manufacturing items like mobile phones, electric vehicles and blades of windmills," he added. He said they organised the meeting in Bhubaneswar because Odisha is the mining capital of India. "Country's 50% mining is done in Odisha.
The state has a successful model for mining. We have presented the model before Prime Minister Narendra Modi. During the meeting, officials from other states will learn about Odisha's model," he added. For 2025-26, GSI has formulated about 1,065 scientific programmes, which include 402 mineral development projects that have the potential to generate mineral blocks which can be auctioned in the near future, 167 mineral discovery and 227 dedicated projects targeting rare earth elements, rare metals, graphite, lithium, vanadium and platinum group elements. About Rs 300 crore will be spent on critical mineral exploration and investigation, read the official statement from GSI. Rao highlighted the successful auctioning of 24 critical mineral blocks in 2024-25 so far and the launch of India's first-ever auction of 13 offshore mineral blocks.Ministry of mines, in collaboration with the Odisha govt, will hold the 3rd National Mines Ministers' Conference on Monday and Tuesday at Konark, where mines ministers of more than 16 states will participate.
Israeli specialty minerals company ICL (TASE: ICL: NYSE: ICL) has announced it has signed a joint venture agreement with Shenzhen Dynanonic to establish lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode active material (CAM) production in Europe, with an initial investment of about €285 million. A new facility at ICL's Sallent site in Spain is in planning stages and will substantially expand the company’s battery materials business. The project demonstrates significant step forward for ICL's battery materials portfolio, this time into Europe.
ICL Phosphates Division president Phil Brown said, "This expansion builds on our strong, existing upstream position in specialty phosphates globally and leverages the strengths of Dynanonic, a leading producer of battery materials, to develop a significant new market for growth. The time is right to make this move, as LFP is a critical solution for the future of Europe’s energy transition. ICL is excited about this potential investment in Spain, and we are extremely enthusiastic about collaborating with Dynanonic - a valued and long-term partner."
Preparation, engineering and permits for the joint venture site in Spain, where ICL previously operated a potash production site, are expected to be followed by construction and subsequent operations. By repurposing the location ICL will revitalize 25 acres of available land, while bringing mass production of LFP to the EU via Spain. The location has an option for further expansion.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on January 19, 2025.
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd., 2025.
Labor will offer $2 billion to help aluminium smelters cut their use of fossil fuels and shift to renewable energy in a bold election pitch to support thousands of manufacturing jobs, contrasting the subsidies with the Coalition plan to build nuclear power stations.
The federal plan will allow four big smelters to claim tax credits for every tonne of aluminium they produce under contracts from renewable electricity suppliers, in a direct pitch for blue-collar votes ahead of the election.
The subsidies will flow to smelters at Portland in Victoria, Tomago in NSW, Gladstone in Queensland and Bell Bay in northern Tasmania, all in key seats where big industries confront rising electricity prices and workers fear job losses.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will announce the plan on Monday in the NSW Hunter Valley, home to the Tomago smelter, with the claim that the credits will help quadruple the aluminium sector to $6 billion in annual revenue by 2050.
China has announced a significant increase in the reserves of 12 types of co-mineral or associated minerals, including gold, gallium, germanium, indium and nickel, effectively enhancing the country's resource security, the China Geological Survey said on Saturday.
Co-minerals are resources within the same deposit that, upon economic and technical evaluation, reach concentrations suitable for industrial use, according to the CGS.
Associated minerals are those present in primary minerals that do not meet industrial standards but can be comprehensively reused after processing, it said.
The CGS, a division of the Ministry of Natural Resources, has collaborated with over 100 divisions across 27 provincial regions since 2021 to reassess 703 active mines and 1,148 medium and large-sized mining areas, significantly increasing the reserves of co-mineral or associated mineral low-grade resources.
Compared to previous reserves, cobalt and rhenium increased by over 100 percent, nickel and indium by over 30 percent, and gallium, germanium, vanadium and potash increased by more than 10 percent, the CGS said.
The growth in gold, tantalum, rare earths and zirconium is also notable. New gold reserves exceed 1,200 tons, vanadium over 12 million tons, and potash over 160 million tons, the CGS added.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202501/19/WS678c96aea310a2ab06ea7deb.html