Just as in 1916, when the will of the people was ignored and the map of the Middle East was drawn by Britain and France through the secret Sykes–Picot Agreement, the consequences of which we still experience today, now, in the 21st century, the United States, in pursuit of quick political and material gains, feels entitled to hand over the territory of a sovereign state to another state at the negotiating table, disregarding international law. Europe merely reviews this unacceptable agreement and proposes minor adjustments.
Now, everything is happening openly before our eyes: in the media, we see how the land and people of one state are being offered to another. Moreover, the United States, the founder of the international rules-based order and the creator of collective security under NATO, wants to be “paid” in return for protecting Europe.
So then, if an aggressive state is rewarded in this way, what will stop it from attacking the sovereignty of other countries in Europe tomorrow?
The 3 peace plans
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, three ceasefire or peace agreement texts have come before us. The first was the text and modification requests leaked to the press in 2024, which emerged from the failed Istanbul Agreement talks in March 2022, shortly after the war began.
The second is the 28-point peace plan that recently took shape following talks between the Trump administration and Russia, most concretely during the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska in August. Finally, the Europeans reviewed the Trump plan and put forward their own counter-proposal last week.
Over the weekend, U.S. and Ukrainian representatives met in Geneva. After comments from Russia that the European plan “constructively doesn’t fit us at all” and that Trump’s original plan was more “acceptable,” the U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to go to Moscow next week.
The reality on the ground
Looking at developments on the ground, the territory Russia occupies in Ukraine (including Crimea and Donbas, seized before 2014) has fluctuated at roughly the same levels since November 2022, and since August 2025, the reported occupied territory has been around 114,500 square kilometers, equal to about 19% of Ukraine’s land. Russia made its biggest gain since March 2022 in Donetsk oblast in November 2024. However, Russian advances in recent years have mostly occurred in sparsely populated rural areas.
While Russia made small gains in 2024 and 2025, the war has essentially turned into a battle of attrition for both sides since Russia announced the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts in September 2022. Despite Russia’s slow and costly advance, Ukraine still controls the vast majority of its territory, and it is clear that Russia has not been able to rapidly shift the situation on the ground in its favor for the last three years.
What the plans demand
So how do conditions on the ground reflect in ceasefire and peace plans, and what do the various peace plans demand? In February and March, statements from U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and later from the Kremlin indicated that the U.S. and Russia could use the Istanbul Agreement Communique as a baseline. The Istanbul Agreement, which would equate to Ukraine’s capitulation, is an important document in terms of showing what Russia is actually aiming for. While the Trump document is a detailed guiding document, the Istanbul agreement and the changes Russia requested are significant for showing what kind of "peace" Russia is pursuing.
I will compare how major issues are addressed across the three documents, though we should remember that none of them are fully official, and our comparison is based on leaked reports released to the media.
Territorial disputes
The Istanbul communique did not resolve territorial disputes related to Crimea, Sevastopol, and parts of eastern Ukraine; it envisioned resolving these issues through negotiations over the next 10–15 years. It effectively turned these regions into a frozen conflict and prevented them from being recognized as Russian territory. At that time, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts had not yet been annexed by Russia.
The U.S. plan envisioned Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk being recognized, including by the U.S, as de facto Russian territories. Under this proposal, Russia, which occupies 46,570 square kilometers or 88% of the Donbas regions (Luhansk and Donetsk), would also be granted the additional three-quarters of Donetsk oblast that it does not currently occupy. This would be “rewarding the aggressor.”
Kherson and Zaporizhzhia would also receive a de facto recognition as Russian along the line of contact.
The European plan states that Ukraine would not attempt to retake territories occupied by Russia through military means and, by saying “negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the Line of Contact,” postpones resolution to a later date, as in the Istanbul Agreement. However, it “rejects forced territorial concessions” and emphasizes that “Ukraine’s sovereignty must be reaffirmed”.
In the territories occupied by Russia, which the U.S. plan proposes to be recognized as Russian, countless human rights violations have taken place since the occupation. Following the migration of around 2.9 million after occupation, the total population of the areas occupied by Russia is estimated to be around 3.47 million people. This raises the question of how the safety of these people will be ensured.
Since the annexation of Crimea, Russia has committed numerous human rights violations, including crimes against humanity such as execution-style killings of Ukrainian men, women, and children. Beyond these crimes, Ukrainians in Russian-occupied territories have been deprived of basic human rights, as documented by reputable institutions such as the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), and Human Rights Watch.
Reports indicate that only 7% of school-aged children (around 44,000) in occupied areas are participating in Ukrainian online education. Other violations include: lack of fair trial and access to lawyers; prolonged detention; ill-treatment and torture in detention; forced displacement; loss of housing; ethnic and religious discrimination (especially against Crimean Tatars); intimidation and persecution of journalists and religious groups; looting and destruction of property; the organized removal and adoption of children to Russia and their subsequent adoption; forced acquisition of Russian citizenship; and suppression of Ukrainian language and identity, particularly in Crimea and parts of Donbas.
Security guarantees
According to the Istanbul Agreement, Ukraine would receive multilateral security guarantees from guarantor states such as the U.K., China, Russia, the U.S., France, and Türkiye. Russia requested the addition of Belarus. While the agreement foresaw security guarantees being implemented if Ukraine were attacked, Russia pushed for a clause requiring approval from all guarantors, including itself, for any military intervention in response to aggression against Ukraine, effectively giving itself a veto power. This stalled the agreement talks, as such a mechanism would nullify all guarantees in case of a Russian attack, similar to a UNSC veto.
The U.S. plan ties a “reliable” American security guarantee to a form of “compensation.” Ukraine would lose this guarantee if it invaded Russia or targeted Moscow or St. Petersburg with missiles. If Russia attacked Ukraine, the plan envisioned a coordinated “military response,” and Russia would face the loss of conquered territory and be subject to sanctions. However, because this “military response” is neither binding nor strong, the European plan proposes “robust security guarantees”, “mirroring NATO’s Article 5”.
Ukrainian military capacity
In the Istanbul talks, Russia proposed that Ukraine have no more than 85,000 troops, while Ukraine counter-proposed a cap of 250,000 troops. Unlike other plans, the Istanbul documents contained extremely detailed tables. Under the section “The maximum number of personnel, weapons and military equipment… in peacetime,” the Russian proposal allowed Ukraine to have 96 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) with a 40-kilometer range, while Ukraine counter-proposed 600 MLRS with a 250-kilometer range.
In the Trump plan, Ukraine would have about 600,000 troops in peacetime, while the European plan rejects restricting Ukraine’s military capacity and proposes around 800,000 troops.
The Istanbul Agreement required Ukraine to maintain permanent neutrality, banning all foreign bases and troops on its soil, prohibiting Ukraine from engaging in any military cooperation, and forbidding foreign weapons, missile systems, or troop exercises on Ukrainian territory—even temporarily. Guarantor states would also be prohibited from taking such actions.
Both the U.S. and European plans accept that there will be no NATO forces in Ukraine. The U.S. plan states that Ukraine will not join NATO, while the European plan notes that NATO membership depends on consensus among NATO members and there is currently no such consensus. The European plan also notes that NATO jets would be stationed in Poland.
Possible EU membership for Ukraine appears in all three plans.
Frozen assets
The U.S. plan proposes using $100 billion in frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction and investment, allocating 50% of profits to the U.S., and using the remaining funds for joint Russian-American projects.
The European plan states that sanctions-related assets will be used to fully reconstruct Ukraine and provide financial compensation, while the remaining assets will stay “frozen until Russia compensates Ukraine for damages”.
By Irina Slav - Nov 27, 2025, 1:00 AM CST
The UK government has revised its position on new oil and gas production in the North Sea, now set to greenlight new output from existing fields and fields in close proximity to them.
The government announced this decision during the presentation of its budget this week, crushing industry hopes for the end of the windfall tax that was introduced in 2022. The tax will remain in place until 2030, Reuters reported.
The energy industry has spoken against the tax repeatedly, warning it would discourage much-needed investment in new domestic energy supply to reduce the UK’s increased reliance on imports, which energy secretary Ed Miliband has blamed for high electricity prices at home.
“The future of North Sea energy depends on investment, which won’t come without urgent reform of the windfall tax,” Offshore Energies UK’s chief, David Whitehouse, said, as quoted by Reuters. “If the levy stays in place beyond 2026, projects will stall, and jobs will vanish, no matter how pragmatic licensing policy becomes,” the head of the industry group also said.
Since the Energy Profits Levy (EPL), or the windfall tax, was initially introduced by the Conservative government at the height of the energy crisis in 2022, oil and gas companies operating in the UK North Sea have been calling for certainty in the regulatory and tax framework. Recent changes in policies and the rising taxes imposed by the current Labour government have driven away operators, who say that a lack of North Sea investments would only make the UK more dependent on oil and gas imports.
Late last year, as Labour further raised the windfall tax, it also removed the 29% investment allowance on oil and gas operations, further stifling UK North Sea investment. The result has been an exodus of companies, a decline in production, and a slump in exploration drilling.
The UK’s oil and gas production has slumped from some 4.4 million barrels of oil equivalent daily 25 years ago to some 1 million barrels of oil equivalent daily to date. This is seen dropping to as little as 150,000 barrels by 2050.
Shares of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs)—Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, and Indian Oil Corp—saw strong gains on Wednesday, November 26. The rally came as global crude prices dropped sharply, boosting market sentiment.
HPCL jumped 2.6% to ₹466.80, BPCL rose 3% to ₹365.85, and IOC gained 1.2% during intraday trading. The broad-based uptrend reflects optimism after recent weakness in these counters.
Market Performance: Key Highlights
The fall in crude oil prices helped OMCs regain momentum as investors responded to cheaper input costs and improved earnings potential.
Main News: Crude Oil Prices and Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks
Global crude oil markets softened amid signs that a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement may be nearing completion.
A successful agreement could lift sanctions on Russian oil, unlocking previously restricted supplies and easing global crude prices further.
Impact on OMCs
Lower crude prices directly benefit OMCs because crude oil forms the bulk of their input cost. Key effects include:
The current environment, with lower crude and potential peace in Ukraine, supports stronger earnings and healthier operating conditions for HPCL, BPCL, and IOC.
By Julianne Geiger - Nov 26, 2025, 12:49 PM CST
The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell sharply this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Wednesday ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
The total rig count in the US fell by 10 to 544 this week, according to Baker Hughes, down 38 from this same time last year.
The number of active oil rigs saw a big dip in the reporting period, according to the data, falling by 12 rigs and reaching 407. Year over year, this represents a 70-rig decline. The number of gas rigs rose by 3 to 130, which is 30 more than this time last year. The miscellaneous rig count dipped by 1 to 7.
The latest EIA data showed that weekly U.S. crude oil production fell for the second week in a row in the week ending November 21 to 13.814 million bpd on average, 48,000 bpd under the all-time high.
Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing wells, rose for the second week in a row in the week ending November 21, gaining 4 to reach 179. This is down from 201 at the beginning of the year.
The number of active drilling rigs in the Permian Basin fell by 3, sinking to 251 this week, which is 52 rigs under year-ago levels. The count in the Eagle Ford fell by 2, landing at 39, which is 9 fewer than this same time last year. Granite Wash also saw a 2-rig decline in the reporting period.
By 1:37 p.m. ET, the WTI benchmark was recovering from its earlier deficit, marking a $0.29 gain on the day to $58.24 The Brent benchmark was trading up $0.20 per barrel, at $62.69—up $0.30 week over week.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Rig-Count-Falls-Off-a-Cliff-In-Thanksgiving-Week.html
US natural gas futures rose past $4.6/MMBtu on expectations of higher demand and a sharper withdrawal to stocks. Forecasts suggest temperatures will remain mostly below normal through December 10, which could boost demand. Also, LNG exports are rising, with flows from the eight major US terminals averaging 18 bcfd in November, up from October’s record 16.6 bcfd. Consistently, new data showed that national inventories fell more than expected in the second week of gas withdrawal season. Still, record production and strong storage levels kept supplies ample. Output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 109.7 bcfd in November, surpassing October’s 107.4 bcfd and breaking the previous monthly record of 108.3 bcfd set in August. This surge has pushed inventories roughly 5% above the seasonal average.
Silvercorp Metals Inc. (NYSE American/TSX: SVM) reported a 23% year-over-year revenue increase to $83.3 million for the quarter ended September 30, marking the second-highest quarterly revenue in the company’s 18-year history. The Canadian mining company attributed this performance to strong production from its Ying Mining District in China and favorable market prices for precious metals.
The company sold approximately 1.66 million ounces of silver, 2,033 ounces of gold, 14.75 million pounds of lead, and 5.67 million pounds of zinc during the quarter. Silver continued to be the primary revenue driver, accounting for 67% of quarterly revenue, while gold sales showed particularly strong growth with a 64% year-over-year increase.
Production expansion remains a key focus for Silvercorp, with expectations of a sharp increase in ore mined at the Ying Mining District during the current quarter. The company projects ore production will rise from 265,000 metric tons to approximately 346,000 metric tons, representing significant operational scaling.
International expansion efforts showed substantial progress at the El Domo project in Ecuador, where construction activities accelerated dramatically. Material cut for site preparation, roads, and channel construction increased by 249%, indicating rapid development of the company’s South American operations. This expansion demonstrates Silvercorp’s strategic diversification beyond its Chinese operations.
The company’s performance reflects broader trends in the precious metals market, where both silver and gold have maintained strong pricing environments. Silvercorp’s ability to capitalize on these market conditions while simultaneously expanding production capacity positions the company for continued growth in the global mining sector.
Additional information about the company’s operations and financial performance is available at https://silvercorpmetals.com/welcome.
Shares of Seabridge Gold Inc. (TSE:SEA) (NYSE:SA) crossed above its 200-day moving average during trading on Tuesday. The stock has a 200-day moving average of C$25.31 and traded as high as C$36.08. Seabridge Gold shares last traded at C$35.53, with a volume of 89,535 shares traded.
Seabridge Gold Stock Performance
The firm has a market cap of C$3.71 billion, a PE ratio of -64.60 and a beta of 1.61. The firm has a 50-day moving average price of C$33.23 and a two-hundred day moving average price of C$25.31. The company has a quick ratio of 3.34, a current ratio of 2.28 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 58.83.
Insider Activity
In other Seabridge Gold news, Director Tracey Jane Arlaud sold 2,300 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 2nd. The stock was sold at an average price of C$24.26, for a total transaction of C$55,786.73. Following the transaction, the director directly owned 11,700 shares in the company, valued at C$283,784.67. This represents a 16.43% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Company insiders own 2.78% of the company’s stock.
About Seabridge Gold
Seabridge Gold Inc is a development stage company involved in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration, and development of gold properties sited in North America. The company’s principal projects include the Kerr-Sulphurets-Mitchell property located in British Columbia, the Courageous Lake property located in the Northwest Territories and its newly acquired Iksut Property located in northwestern British Columbia.
Barrick Mining Corp.’s ABX-T lead independent director Ben van Beurden is stepping down, the latest in a series of leadership shakeups at the big Canadian gold miner.
Mr. van Beurden, former CEO of Shell, had only been with Barrick since May, and when he was appointed lead director, the company trumpeted his extensive experience as a leader with “nearly four decades of global leadership in the energy and natural resources sectors.”
No reason was given for his abrupt departure.
Mr. van Beurden will be succeeded by current Barrick board member Loreto Silva who takes over as the lead independent director. No replacement for Ms. Silva was announced, and it is unclear whether the number of directors will permanently be smaller on the board.
It is also unclear whether the board change is coming at the behest of activist investor Elliott Investment Management LP, which recently amassed a $1-billion stake in Barrick and has been pushing for big changes, including a split of the company that would separate its North American mines from the other parts of its business perceived as much riskier, such as its African gold mines, its giant new Pakistani project, and its copper mines in the Middle East and Africa.
In a statement Wednesday morning, Barrick chairman John Thornton said the company remains focused on delivering long-term value for shareholders. He added that Barrick has “industry-leading assets” and a strengthened leadership team that is fully aligned on delivering its strategic priorities.
In September, Barrick cut ties with CEO Mark Bristow after years of underperformance and after he clashed repeatedly with Mr. Thornton, The Globe and Mail has reported. Toronto-based Barrick last week also cut ties with several executives including Kevin Thomson, senior executive VP of strategic matters, who had been with Barrick since 2014, and Christine Keener, chief operating officer for North America.
Ivanhoe Mines (TSE:IVN) has issued an announcement.
Ivanhoe Mines has announced key leadership changes, with Mark Farren transitioning to a Strategic Advisor role and Tom van den Berg being appointed as the new Chief Operating Officer. These changes are part of Ivanhoe’s strategic plan to enhance operational capabilities and support its next phase of growth, including the expansion of the Platreef Project and development of the Western Forelands. Additionally, Nick Popovic joins as a Strategic Advisor, bringing extensive industry experience, while Xianwen Wu replaces Manfu Ma on the board, signaling continued collaboration with CITIC Metal Group. These appointments are expected to strengthen Ivanhoe’s operational and strategic positioning in the mining industry.
The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:IVN) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target.
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:IVN is a Neutral.
Ivanhoe Mines demonstrates strong operational performance with significant revenue and production growth, supported by strategic expansions and a robust balance sheet. However, challenges such as negative cash flow and high P/E ratio pose significant risks. Technical indicators signal a bearish trend, tempering short-term optimism. Positive earnings call insights and corporate events provide balance, but caution is advised due to financial and regional risks.
More about Ivanhoe Mines
Ivanhoe Mines is a prominent player in the mining industry, focusing on the development and operation of copper, platinum, and other mineral resources. The company is known for its significant projects like the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex and the Platreef Project, with a market focus on expanding its mining capabilities and enhancing operational excellence.
Average Trading Volume: 3,835,497
Technical Sentiment Signal: Hold
Current Market Cap: C$18.75B
Copper ore processing plant pouring molten ore. Stock image.
China “firmly opposes” zero or negative processing fees for copper smelters and is urging the global industry to confront a “structural contradiction” that has upended the market for the industrial metal.
Treatment and refining charges – the fees earned by smelters for processing ore into metal – have plunged to record lows this year due to a scarcity of raw materials. Rapid growth in China’s smelting capacity, by far the world’s largest, has collided with a series of mine outages around the world.
A negative TC/RC effectively means that a smelter is paying to process copper concentrate – a highly unusual situation that has called into question the long-standing industry pricing benchmark. Spot charges have fallen as low as minus $60 per ton this year.
“Such practices severely undermine the interests of the global copper smelting industry, including China,” Chen Xuesen, vice president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said in a presentation to an industry conference in Shanghai on Wednesday.
“CNIA firmly opposes any zero or negative TC/RCs in processing of copper concentrate,” he said. “We urge the global copper industry to confront this unsustainable structural contradiction and foster collaboration among relevant nations and stakeholders.”
The low fees have impacted copper smelters worldwide. Japan’s JX Advanced Metals Co. this year announced an output cut running into the tens of thousands of tons, while Glencore Plc received a government bailout to keep its Mount Isa smelter and refinery in Australia running for another three years.
Chinese smelters also suffer from low TC/RCs – but they benefit from their ownership of some mines, as well as the surging price of refined copper and sulfuric acid, a byproduct. Copper prices rose to a record high above $11,200 in late October.
China is taking steps to manage its copper smelting capacity, drawing on its similar experiences with aluminum, Chen said. The country has already curbed over-expansion by halting some 2 million tons of illegal capacity that was either under construction or in planning, he said.
In the coming years, China will also favor new smelting capacity that would run on scrap rather than imported copper concentrate. “We will be able to see the effects from the copper supply-side reform in two to three years,” Chen said.
https://www.mining.com/web/china-firmly-opposes-negative-copper-treatment-charges/
Written by Richard Finlayson, Senior International Editor for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Malawi, one of Africa's poorest countries, has the continent's largest reserves of rare earth minerals, with discoveries of more than 30 million tons of the minerals and a mining life span of 30 years.
The minerals include niobium, zirconolite, tantalum and rare earth oxides, which are key in electronics manufacturing, said Minister of Natural Resources and Environment Cassim Chilumpha.
The mineral discoveries are in Machinga, Phalombe, Kasungu and Ntcheu, with more finds probable in other districts. Rare mining could contribute 20% of the country's GDP in the future, Chilumpha said.
Mkango Resources (Calgary, Alberta) CEO William Dawes said that the rare earth minerals at Songwe Hill in Phalombe have a life span of 20 years. The hill has a resource estimate of 31.8 million tons, he said.
Malawi has abundant mineral resources to be exploited, such as bauxite, heavy mineral sands, monazite, coal, uranium, precious and semi-precious stones, limestone, niobium, dimension stones and rock aggregates, Chilumpha said. Despite the country having no mining history, the Australian government has projected Malawi to become a mining hub in the short to medium term, he added.
"We have issued 65 mining licenses, of which 43 are foreign firms and the rest for locals," Chilumpha said. "To derive the maximum potential of the mining industry through the economic recovery plan (ERP), the government will aim at increasing production and value addition of mineral resources. To achieve this, we will have to revise the Mining Act, establish legal and institutional frameworks, update the geological information system, and undertake a crash program to train mining engineers, legal experts in mining and other related fields in the sector."
It is envisaged that Malawian consortiums will be formed as a way to ensure that earnings remain and circulate in the country.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, and eight offices outside of North America, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities.
Global iron ore supply could reach a record 2.68 billion tons in 2026, according to the latest forecast by Mysteel Global.
As noted, Africa will be the key driver of growth thanks to the phased launch of the Simandou project. In addition, iron ore mines in Australia and Brazil are continuing to expand their capacity.
Africa will account for 35% of global growth next year. Thanks to increased volumes at Simandou, production at the deposit in 2026 is forecast at 22 million tons.
Australia’s share next year will be 985.9 million tons. However, Mysteel notes uncertainty regarding BHP, as the company is in difficult pricing negotiations with China.
Brazil’s production volumes in 2026 are expected to reach 489.3 million tons. India is aiming for 295 million tons as the country moves to increase steel production.
According to Mysteel, global iron ore production will reach 2.61 billion tons this year, which is almost 33 million tons more than in 2024.
It should be recalled that in November this year, operations at the Simandou deposit officially started in Guinea. The project will become Africa’s largest mining and transport complex, exporting up to 120 million tons of ore annually.
As reported by GMK Center, global iron ore exports remained stable in October 2025, with high volumes of supplies from major producing countries. India accounted for most of the growth, while Australia and Brazil recorded moderate increases in shipments, and South Africa, on the contrary, reduced exports due to logistical difficulties.
