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Friday 26 June 2026
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The Burdass Brief - Why the Market is Blind to Commodity Infrastructure Bottlenecks

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Macro

Hormuz Confusion Deepens as Iran and US Clash Over Who Controls It

Trump said Tehran had promised no tolls or charges in the strait, hours after Iran and Oman announced a joint permit system asserting their authority over the waterway. Rubio flew to Abu Dhabi to reassure Gulf allies, as analysts warned control over Hormuz would be a major strategic victory for Iran

Both Iran and the US are engaged in rapid-fire diplomatic engagements as peace talks to end the war are advancing, while confusion still reigns in the Strait of Hormuz amid conflicting reports on whether free maritime navigation will resume without any restrictions.

Iran and Oman announced on Wednesday that they both intend to establish a joint mechanism to control navigation by a system of permits, claiming their authority over the strait.

Oman announced it was establishing a “temporary” toll-free shipping transit corridor in coordination with the International Maritime Organisation.

But Tehran continued to claim Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz despite repeated US reassurances that navigation would eventually be free as before the war.

US President Donald Trump released a new statement on Wednesday, saying that Iran informed the US that there will be “no tolls, no insurance costs and no other charges of any kind sought or received by Iran for travelling the Strait of Hormuz.”

Trump repeated that if the contrary as publicly declared by Iran were true, “negotiations would end, immediately".

The Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Wednesday that "a reality in which Iran is able to manage traffic through the strait and collect related fees would constitute a significant strategic victory for Iran and give Iran substantial leverage over global commerce."

The ISW also noted that Iran's Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s Telegram channel reiterated the primary objectives that Iran seeks to achieve in the current negotiations.

These objectives include ending US military operations against Iran, making the US lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, consolidating Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, receiving US compensation for Iranian reconstruction, the lifting of all sanctions, “the resolution of nuclear issues,” and Iranian access to frozen assets.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is on a Middle East diplomatic visit to discuss the peace process with the allies in the region.

On Wednesday Rubio met UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and senior leaders of the Gulf country in Abu Dhabi to discuss the US administration’s efforts to secure full and safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the US State Department said in a statement.

Rubio thanked the UAE "for their leadership and unparalleled support, praised their courage and resilience in the face of Iran’s attacks, and reaffirmed the US commitment to the security of the Emirates,” the statement said.


https://www.euronews.com/2026/06/25/hormuz-confusion-deepens-as-iran-and-us-clash-over-who-controls-it

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Iran-U.S. Updates: Iran Strikes Vessel in Strait of Hormuz Amid Debate Over "Transit Fees"

By Duarte Dias, Eleanor Watson, Mark Osborne, Joanne Stocker

Updated on: June 26, 2026 / 1:58 AM EDT / CBS News

What to know about the Iran war:

  • A cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by Iran's Revolutionary Guards on Thursday near the Oman coast, according to a U.S. official. The vessel suffered damage to its bridge, but no one was injured, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Centre said.
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio again rejected the idea of Iran charging vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Oman said any system it creates with Iran to manage maritime traffic will not involve fees, but Iran was less definitive, saying it would work with Oman "to define future administration and maritime services in Strait of Hormuz."
  • The price of Brent crude, considered the international standard for the cost of oil, hovered around $75 a barrel on Thursday, briefly dropping in the morning to $72, its closest to its $70 pre-war level in almost four months. 


https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/us-iran-war-trump-strait-of-hormuz-oil-prices/

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Renewed Tech Sell-Off Jolts Asia Stocks After Apple Raises Prices

South Korea’s chip-heavy market was hit by a second trading suspension this week as the Kospi tumbled as much as 9 per cent.

South Korea’s chip-heavy market was hit by a second trading suspension this week as the Kospi tumbled as much as 9 per cent.

 PHOTO: BLOOMBERG

Published Jun 26, 2026, 01:18 PM

Updated Jun 26, 2026, 06:17 PM

HONG KONG – Asian technology stocks slumped after Apple raised prices for its products, stoking concerns that rising component prices will curb demand for devices and eventually slow the memory chip rally that has powered much of the artificial intelligence trade.

South Korean memory chip giants SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics sank 8.4 per cent and 5.3 per cent, respectively. Their Japan-based peer Kioxia Holdings slumped 11.6 per cent. Among Apple’s Asian suppliers, Taiwan’s MediaTek fell 10 per cent, while Hon Hai Precision Industry Co fell 3.5 per cent. 

South Korea’s chip-heavy market was hit by a second trading suspension this week as the Kospi tumbled as much as 9 per cent before closing down 5.8 per cent. Japan’s Nikkei index sank 4.5 per cent and Taiwan’s TAIEX index tumbled 3.6 per cent. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.2 per cent while S&P 500 futures slid 0.5 per cent.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index ended 0.5 per cent lower.

Investors are reassessing whether soaring memory prices, driven by relentless AI demand, may begin to choke off spending by raising costs for electronics makers and consumers alike. Apple’s price hikes offered one of the clearest signs yet that the industry’s pricing power may come at the expense of future demand, prompting a broad recalibration across AI-linked semiconductor stocks.

“Markets are no longer treating memory strength as an automatic positive for the whole AI trade,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore. “It validates AI infrastructure demand, but it also raises the cost of building and consuming AI.”

“The risk is that a stronger memory cycle today starts to slow the broader AI trade tomorrow. And the market is starting to price that,” she said.

Apple on June 25 raised prices of all Macs, iPads, home devices and the Vision Pro, seeking to offset cost hikes caused by a shortage of memory chips and storage. The company’s shares fell 6.1 per cent, their biggest drop since April 2025.

Later on June 25, Microsoft announced a third price increase for its Xbox video-game consolesin another example of the component shortage crisis that has driven up the cost of consumer tech products.

Sentiment towards Asian tech shares was also hurt by news that OpenAI may hold off on an initial public offering until 2027. SoftBank Group’s stock fell as much as 14 per cent in Tokyo, on concerns that the company which is a prominent backer of OpenAI, may face delayed returns.

“OpenAI’s potential IPO delay reflects the impact of recent tech stock volatility on retail enthusiasm,” said Fabien Yip, market analyst at IG International. “This creates a reality check on AI valuations, directly hitting SoftBank and overspilling to the broader tech sector.”

For investors in South Korea, swings this week are yet another reminder that the market’s fortunes remain closely tied to the AI trade. Sharp moves in semiconductor heavyweights have made the Kospi behave more like a single technology stock than a diversified index. Meanwhile, Samsung and SK Hynix are preparing to announce hundreds of billions of dollars worth in new investments on June 29, according to local media reports.

“While US chipmakers are finding a floor on localised corporate updates and domestic economic resilience, Asian semis – the heavy-lifting infrastructure and hardware backbone of the AI supply chain – are bearing the brunt of the regional risk-off unwind,” said Francis Tan, Asia chief strategist at Indosuez Wealth in Singapore. BLOOMBERG


https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/renewed-tech-sell-off-jolts-asia-stocks

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US PCE Inflation Remains Sticky in May as Consumer Spending Accelerates; EURUSD Reacts

Inflation_Shopping_Receipt

26 June 2026 at 00:15 UTC 

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data on June 25, 2026. The headline PCE price index rose 0.4% on a month-over-month basis and 4.1% year-over-year, matching the Bloomberg economic calendar consensus forecasts. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index—which excludes volatile food and energy components and serves as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—increased by 0.3% from the previous month and 3.4% from a year ago, also aligning perfectly with market expectations. The data highlights persistent inflationary pressures, keeping the Federal Reserve under pressure to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance.

Headline vs. core PCE inflation

The Federal Reserve closely monitors core PCE inflation because it strips out the transitory volatility of food and energy prices, providing a clearer view of long-term underlying inflation trends. Additionally, the PCE index accounts for substitution bias—where consumers switch to cheaper alternatives as prices rise—making it a more dynamic measure than the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

May 2026 Personal consumption expenditure

Personal consumption expenditure - PCE - Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis - Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Consumer spending and prices

  • Robust consumer demand: Personal spending rose by 0.7% in May, outpacing the 0.6% forecast, while real personal spending ticked up 0.3%. This indicates that consumer demand remains resilient despite elevated borrowing costs.
  • Income growth: Personal income accelerated sharply by 0.7%, well ahead of the 0.4% consensus estimate, providing households with the financial buffer to sustain spending.
  • Services vs. goods: Services inflation continues to be the primary driver of price stickiness, sustained by steady wage growth and a tight labor market, as evidenced by initial jobless claims dropping to 215k.

Cross-comparison with CPI and PPI data

The sticky PCE print aligns with the earlier Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which also showed a flattening of the disinflationary trend, particularly in shelter and core services.

Compared to the Producer Price Index (PPI) data from earlier in the month, which tracks wholesale costs, input pressures remain uneven. While some manufacturing supply chains have stabilized, the pass-through of resilient service-sector input costs continues to filter into consumer-facing metrics, limiting how quickly final prices can moderate.

Macroeconomic and Federal Reserve implications

With headline inflation edging up to 4.1% and core PCE sticking at 3.4%, progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% average inflation target appears to have stalled. Combined with an upward revision to first-quarter GDP to 2.1% and resilient durable goods orders, the economic backdrop suggests that the FOMC may prolong its “higher for longer” interest rate stance. The probability of near-term rate cuts may diminish, as the central bank requires more conclusive evidence of cooling demand before easing policy.


https://www.marketpulse.com/markets/us-pce-inflation-remains-sticky-in-may-as-consumer-spending-accelerates-eurusd-reacts/

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Oil and Gas

German Police Probe Alleged Russian Gas Sabotage Attempt

BERLIN: German police carried out searches Wednesday as part of an investigation into suspicions that Russia’s sale of Gazprom’s Berlin-based subsidiary was intended to sabotage Germany’s gas supply.

The probe focuses on the weeks after Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when the state-controlled energy giant sold its Berlin-based subsidiary Gazprom Germania.

An opaque transfer of ownership sent alarm bells ringing in the German government, which then temporarily took control of the subsidiary that held at least 25 percent of Germany’s natural gas storage capacity.

German prosecutors charge that when ownership of Gazprom Germania was transferred, “a Moscow-based company with no ties to the industry appeared as the new owner,” who then “immediately... ordered the liquidation of Gazprom Germania.”

“There is suspicion that the sale and liquidation were intended to impair the gas supply in Germany,” the prosecutors said.

Police were Wednesday searching the Berlin premises of a Russian suspect and a company in Frankfurt in connection with the alleged sabotage attempt.

“The suspect — a Russian national — is alleged to have supported the implementation of the liquidation resolution with this aim in mind,” prosecutors said.

In 2022, Germany’s then economy minister Robert Habeck said the government had stepped in because of the “unclear” legal structure behind Gazprom Germania and the mother firm’s failure to comply with the obligation to inform German authorities of ownership changes.

Under German law, the government has the right to examine transactions involving non-EU firms deemed systemically relevant.

Germany announced in November 2022 that it was fully nationalizing Gazprom Germania, citing its systemic importance for the national power supply.

The company is now known as Securing Energy for Europe GmbH.

In recent months, Germany has made a number of arrests of alleged spies for Russia.

This month Germany opened the Joint Center for Countering Hybrid Threats, intended to coordinate efforts by security agencies against espionage, disinformation and sabotage blamed on Russia and other hostile powers.


https://www.arabnews.com/node/2648447/amp

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Iraq Could Quit OPEC in Bid to Pump More Oil

OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, is considering exiting the cartel if the organization rejects Baghdad’s plan to boost its oil production quota in line with some of the other members, sources in the Iraqi government have told local news outlet Shafaq.

Iraq proposes to boost its oil exports to compensate for the losses in production and sales it has incurred since the start of the war, according to Shafaq’s sources. The federal government is also estimating the impact of Iraq potentially exceeding its production quota in the OPEC agreements, including an expected decline in global oil prices amid higher supply in the near to medium term.

However, “Any decision to increase production or withdraw from OPEC would likely come after Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s planned visit to Washington in the middle of next month,” Shafaq’s sources said.

Iraq has seen the worst of the Middle East crisis as its heavily oil-dependent economy was collapsing with the trickling oil revenues amid the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iraq has done very little in recent decades to diversify its heavy dependence on oil. Petroleum sales still account for 90% of revenues for the state budget. While other producers in the Middle East also depend on oil sales, none is as dependent as Iraq.

Due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq was forced to slash its oil production as its exports from Basra need to transit the world’s most vital oil chokepoint.

The recovery of production in Iraq could turn into a dispute with OPEC if Baghdad pushes to raise its oil production too much above its current quota.

An Iraq exit would be an even bigger blow to the cartel than the abrupt withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) earlier this year.

The UAE has clashed with OPEC and OPEC+ producers over output quotas, insisting it should be given a higher production ceiling as it raises its production capacity. After years of discord, the UAE quit OPEC effective May 1, 2026.


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iraq-Could-Quit-OPEC-in-Bid-to-Pump-More-Oil.html

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Alternative Energy

Adani Targets 10 GW Nuclear Power Capacity by 2035

Adani

ADANI GROUP said on Wednesday it aims to become a major player in India’s nuclear power sector, with plans to build up to 10 gigawatts of capacity by 2035.

If achieved, that would likely make it the country’s largest private-sector nuclear power operator.

“Our entry into nuclear energy through Adani Atomic Energy is another confident step towards securing India's long-term energy future,” Gautam Adani, the conglomerate’s chairman, said at the group’s annual general meeting.

India, which is seeking to expand its clean energy capacity, opened its nuclear generation sector to domestic and foreign private firms last year. It aims to raise nuclear capacity to 100 gigawatts by 2047 from about 8 gigawatts currently.

State-run Nuclear Power Corp of India, currently the country’s only nuclear plant operator, aims to build 50 GW of capacity, while NTPC, also state-run and India’s biggest coal power producer, is targeting 30 GW of nuclear capacity.

Adani would likely become the third-largest nuclear plant operator. Several other private companies, including Tata Power and Reliance Industries, are also exploring investments in the sector.

The Adani Group has identified land for the projects but did not disclose details, including where they might be located.

Adani said the conglomerate’s data centre business is on track to build 3 GW of capacity by 2030. The group is also expanding its piped natural gas projects to meet India’s rising demand for gas.

India’s gas supplies have been disrupted by global shipping constraints after the US and Israel’s war with Iran affected traffic through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Shares of Adani Enterprises, the group’s flagship firm, rose 2.3 per cent on Wednesday.

(With inputs from Reuters)


https://www.easterneye.biz/adani-group-nuclear-power-india-energy-gautam-adani/

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Base Metals

Why are London's Miners Feeling the Squeeze as Metals Slip Today?

 Why are London's miners feeling the squeeze as metals slip today?

Highlights 

  • Gold, silver, copper and other commodities eased broadly across the session.
  • Glencore plc (LSE:GLEN), Antofagasta plc (LSE:ANTO) and Rio Tinto plc (LSE:RIO) tracked the softer tone.
  • A firmer US dollar acted as a headwind for metals priced in the currency.

London's mining sector came under pressure today as a broad-based pullback in commodity prices weighed on the index's heavyweight producers. Copper, gold, silver, iron ore and other commodities all traded lower, dragging names such as Glencore plc (LSE:GLEN), Antofagasta plc (LSE:ANTO) and Rio Tinto plc (LSE:RIO) within the FTSE 100.

What is weighing on metals today?

The selling pressure has been broad rather than company-specific, stemming from a wider deterioration in commodity prices. A strengthening US dollar has been a key factor, as metals priced in the currency become more expensive for international buyers when it firms. On top of this, expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer have weighed on the demand outlook for industrial metals, since higher rates tend to slow economic activity.

How are the diversified miners affected?

Diversified producers such as Glencore plc (LSE:GLEN) and Rio Tinto plc (LSE:RIO) carry exposure across a range of commodities, from copper and iron ore to other base metals. When multiple commodities ease at once, the effect compounds across their portfolios. Copper-focused Antofagasta plc (LSE:ANTO) is particularly sensitive to moves in that metal, which has been caught in the same broad pullback gripping the complex today.

Why does the dollar matter so much for miners?

Most globally traded metals are priced in US dollars, so the strength of the currency has a direct bearing on demand and pricing. A firmer dollar raises the effective cost for buyers using other currencies, which can dampen appetite and pressure prices. Because miners' revenues are closely linked to the metals they sell, currency-driven swings in commodities tend to feed quickly into the sentiment around mining shares.

What is the broader read for the sector?

Days of broad commodity weakness highlight how closely London's miners are tethered to global macro forces. With the dollar firm and rate expectations leaning higher, the backdrop has turned less supportive for metals. For the diversified majors, this means watching not just individual commodities but the wider interplay of currency, rates and demand that ultimately shapes the prices they receive.


https://kalkinemedia.com/uk/stocks/metals-and-mining/why-are-londons-miners-feeling-the-squeeze-as-metals-slip-today

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BHP’s New CEO Faces Costs, Strikes and M&A Questions

BRANDON Craig takes the helm at BHP on July 1 confronting a demanding agenda that spans cost overruns, threatened industrial action, major capital decisions and a shifting mergers and acquisitions landscape, according to a report by Reuters on Thursday.

The 53-year-old succeeds Mike Henry as the world’s largest miner trades near record highs, buoyed by investor optimism over copper and metals demand driven by data centres, energy infrastructure and defence spending, the newswire said.

Cost discipline will be an immediate priority after BHP flagged a $2.3bn charge last week from overruns and delays at its Jansen Stage 2 potash project — an expansion that fell under Craig’s watch as head of Americas.

Investors are also watching closely given other major projects underway, including the Vicuna copper joint venture in Argentina and Chile, and a multibillion-dollar smelter decision at Copper South Australia due by year-end.

Industrial relations present an early test, with unions escalating tensions at BHP’s Port Hedland iron ore operations and threatening coordinated strikes — potentially the first in decades — if negotiations on July 7 break down.

On M&A, Craig is not expected to move quickly, though analysts say BHP’s valuation premium keeps it well positioned to act. Anglo American, which rebuffed BHP’s advances in favour of a merger with Teck Resources, could become relevant again once that deal closes.

A friendly approach from Glencore, whose merger ambitions are well known, has also not been ruled out by those familiar with its thinking, said Reuters.

Uranium represents a longer-term growth question. Craig has signalled he will examine the opportunity carefully, though scale remains a constraint. BHP already produces roughly 5% of global uranium supply as a byproduct at Olympic Dam.


https://www.miningmx.com/trending/65749-bhps-new-ceo-faces-costs-strikes-and-ma-questions/

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Steel

HRC Price Center Expected to Edge Lower in July

In June, steel prices were affected by the simultaneous weakening of end-use demand and cost support. HRC futures and spot prices moved sideways before trending lower, with the most-traded contract's monthly average price down 1.85% and SMM's national HRC monthly average spot price down 1.93%.


In terms of fundamentals, SMM's latest survey shows that this week, HRC social inventory at 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) tracked by SMM reached 4.2912 million mt, up 64,500 mt WoW (+1.53% WoW) and up 39.78% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. By region, inventory buildup in northeast, central, and north China exceeded that in east China, while south China reported slight destocking. Recent transactions were sluggish, with soft market deals, leading to a slight accumulation of steel inventory.

Looking into July, supply side, according to the latest SMM intelligence, there are currently few new HRC maintenance shutdowns at steel mills, and domestic HRC production schedules for July are expected to edge up from June.

Demand side, given that Q2 remains in the off-season for domestic consumption, downstream procurement and market deals are subdued. Inventory pressure is expected to mount from July, with supply-demand imbalances gradually building. HRC's own supply-demand pattern will provide limited support to prices.

Cost side, market views on coal and coke price trends are currently divergent, while iron ore prices are expected to still have downside room. Overall, as HRC's supply-demand imbalances gradually build, it becomes harder for costs to rise further. Considering limited macro and external stimulus for steel prices, HRC prices in July are expected to hover at lows tracking the cost trend, with the average price potentially edging lower.


https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/103972288-smm-analysis-hrc-price-center-expected-to-edge-lower-in-july

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The US Domestic HRC EXW Price Recently Climbed 7.5 USD/tonne

6.25 SMM Global Steel Daily Report

[US] The US domestic HRC EXW price recently climbed 7.5 USD/tonne, pushing it to 1,142.75 USD/tonne EXW. This price level marked the highest since April 25, 2023. As domestic steel mills are currently focused entirely on delivering earlier backlog orders, spot HRC availability in the market is extremely scarce, causing the sharp price surge.


https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/103972392-smm-steelsupply-deficit-us-exw-price-continues-to-rise

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POSCO Reorganizes Portfolio Into 8 'Strategic Steels' Under 'One Team' System

6.25 SMM Global Steel Daily Report

POSCO said Wednesday it streamlined its product line into eight 'strategic steels' run under a new 'One Team' structure that breaks internal divisional silos, with each team handling the full chain from R&D to sales. The eight include stainless steel for next-generation growth markets, PosMAC, high-manganese steel, premium EAF steel, energy heavy plates, electrical steel, GigaSteel and HyperNO. Pohang will anchor energy steels—including high-strength stainless—while Gwangyang focuses on automotive and new-mobility grades. POSCO framed the revamp as a response to rising low-priced imports into Korea and trade barriers abroad, after US tariffs cut its US exports 8% year-on-year, and tied it to Korea's new K-Steel Act—signaling a pivot toward premium specialty products, stainless among them.


https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/103972376-smm-steel-market-flash-posco-reorganizes-portfolio-into-8-strategic-steels-under-one-team-system

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