Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Monday 20 April 2026
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Featured

The Name of the Game: Why the Alpha Has Rotated to Base Metals

Europe Faces Summer Jet Fuel Crisis as Iran War Slashes Supply

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 19, 2026, 2:00 PM CDT

  • Europe faces an imminent jet fuel crisis as the Iran war and Hormuz disruption cut off key Middle Eastern supplies.
  • Long-term refinery closures and rising import dependence have left Europe highly exposed, with limited alternatives and growing competition from Asia.
  • Airlines are already cutting capacity and warning of higher fares, with potential flight cancellations looming as fuel shortages intensify.

Accelerated refinery closures in the past decade and increased dependence on kerosene from the Middle East have exposed Europe’s energy supply vulnerability once again.

For years, European consumers have had to contend with last-minute strikes of ground personnel and cabin crew during peak summer travel. This year, strikes may be viewed as a minor nuisance compared to what’s coming within weeks—a jet fuel supply crisis that could ground flights and hike fares.

The war in Iran has cut most of Europe’s imports of jet fuel, while local output has been falling for nearly two decades due to dozens of refineries closing permanently or being converted to biofuel production.

The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have severely constrained Europe’s jet fuel supply, while jet fuel prices have spiked to over $200 per barrel. The last imports from the Middle East on tankers that had passed Hormuz before the war began have arrived, and there is only one alternative to source jet fuel—from the United States. These supplies are not only insufficient to replace the loss of Middle Eastern jet fuel. Europe faces increasingly fierce competition from Asia for these cargoes as the crisis first hit Asia with crude supply from the Middle East collapsing, Asian refiners cutting refinery runs, and countries imposing fuel export restrictions to preserve domestic supply. 

Back in 2009, nearly 100 refineries were operating in Europe. Of these, 28 refineries – more than 25% of the number of refineries and 16% of refining capacity – have been either shut or transformed since 2009, according to data from the European Fuel Manufacturers Association.

As refineries were closing, due to declining fuel demand in Europe and emission-reduction policies, the European dependence on imported supply has grown. The hit to supply from the Middle East caught Europe off guard regarding the security of energy supply for the second time in just four years, after natural gas deliveries from Russia crashed in 2022.

This time, the jet fuel crisis could be imminent, analysts and forecasters warn.

Last year, Europe imported about a third of the jet fuel it consumed, with 75% of imports coming from the Middle East, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said.

Its executive director, Fatih Birol, this week warned that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of remaining jet fuel supply.

“If we are not able to open the Strait of Hormuz ... I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel,” Birol told Associated Press in an interview.

Northwest Europe is one of the regions most exposed to the jet fuel crisis, as imports have dropped from historical norms this month, and the import decline is set to accelerate in the coming weeks as more U.S. jet fuel cargoes would go to Asia instead of Europe, Ernest Censier, market analyst at Vortexa, said in an analysis on Thursday.

The 15% drop in European jet fuel imports so far in April “reflects structural dependence on Middle Eastern supply: approximately half of NWE’s jet fuel imports typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” Censier said.

In addition, relatively short voyage times of about 21 days from Mina Abdulla in Kuwait to Rotterdam mean that supply disruptions are transmitted quickly into regional imports, the analyst added.

The U.S. has emerged as the key source of substitution for lost Middle Eastern supply, but this is unlikely to be sustained as U.S. jet/kerosene exports are increasingly being redirected toward the Pacific Basin, reaching a seven-year high this month, and now accounting for over 30% of total U.S. jet fuel exports.

“This reallocation reflects a broader shift in US product exports toward the Pacific Basin,” Vortexa’s Censier noted.

This leaves Europe highly exposed to the turbulence in the jet fuel markets.

Lufthansa, Europe’s biggest airline, on Thursday said it is accelerating plans to reduce its flight program and retire some aircraft earlier “In view of significantly increased kerosene prices, which have more than doubled compared to the period before the Iran war, as well as rising additional burdens from labor disputes.”

“The package for accelerated implementation of fleet and capacity measures is unavoidable in light of the sharply increased kerosene costs and geopolitical instability,” said Till Streichert, Chief Financial Officer of Lufthansa Group.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europe-Faces-Summer-Jet-Fuel-Crisis-as-Iran-War-Slashes-Supply.html

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Macro

Iran Stops 14 India-Bound Ships Passing Hormuz, 1 Hit by Bullets

Another ship, which was Indian flagged and loaded with crude oil for the Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, sailed through the Strait and is now heading towards India, the sources informed.

Two of the fourteen India-bound ships carrying crude oil and gas, transiting the Strait of Hormuz, were stopped and fired at by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). After this, 13 of the vessels returned to different locations in the Persian Gulf, official sources privy to the development said. The firing from the two Iranian gunboats came without warning.

An Indian-flag carrying ship, which was hit by bullets fired by the IRGC, had a window pane broken, forcing it to stop the journey and return. The extent of damage to the second vessel was not immediately known, but it had also returned. However, another ship, which was Indian flagged and loaded with crude oil for the Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, sailed through the Strait and is now heading towards India, the sources informed.

Gunboats approached the vessel 37 kilometres northeast of Oman, causing other vessels to return without completing the crossing. The incident was reported in waters between the Qeshm and Larak islands, they said.

Out of the 14 India-bound vessels, seven are carrying the Indian flag, four have the Liberian flag, two are of the Marshall Islands, and one is of Vietnam. Six of them are loaded with crude oil, three have LPG, and four are loaded with fertilisers. Among the ships, five are bulk carriers. All 14 vessels were sailing in a row.

Thirteen of them were stopped by the Iranian Navy and were instructed to wait. Out of the 13 stranded vessels, seven vessels are drifting south of Larak Island, waiting for clearance from the Iranian Navy, the sources said.

What is the Indian govt doing?

The Indian government is understood to have been coordinating with the Iranian authorities for the safe voyage of the stranded India-bound ships.

The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz reportedly escalated again on Saturday as Iran reversed its reopening of the crucial waterway and fired on ships attempting to pass. This came as the United States pressed ahead with its blockade of Iranian ports.

Confusion over the Strait, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes, threatened to deepen the energy crisis. The ceasefire between Iran and the US is due to run out by mid-next week.

Iran's joint military command said Saturday that "control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state ... under strict management and control of the armed forces." It warned that it would continue to block transit through the strait as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.


https://newsarenaindia.com/international/firing-at-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz-as-blockade-reimposed/75047

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Oil

EU Rejects Claims of Imminent Jet Fuel Shortage Across Europe

Rising fuel costs impact airlines and ticket prices as EU monitors situation closely. Photo credit: Unsplash

European officials have pushed back against claims that aviation fuel supplies across the EU could run out within six weeks, calling such reports misleading.

Speaking in Nicosia on Friday after an informal gathering of EU tourism ministers, European Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism Apostolos Tzitzikostas said the situation is under control despite pressure on supply chains linked to the Middle East conflict. He explained that while the market is experiencing strain, there are no signs of widespread shortages that would disrupt flights across Europe.

Tzitzikostas described jet fuel as part of a global supply system that continues to function, noting that Europe has strong refining capabilities. He added that authorities are keeping a close watch on market conditions and that emergency reserves required under EU legislation are available if needed, with any release coordinated alongside industry partners.

He acknowledged that rising fuel costs are already affecting the aviation sector. Higher prices are expected to push up ticket costs, which could reduce demand for travel. Some airlines in Europe have already dropped certain routes, particularly those that were not financially sustainable even before fuel prices increased.

Addressing the broader energy situation, Tzitzikostas said a return to pre-war conditions would depend on ending the conflict and restarting negotiations in the Middle East, including reopening key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. He reiterated the EU’s support for renewed diplomatic efforts.

The Commissioner also stressed that officials are reviewing developments daily in consultation with industry stakeholders and are preparing for different possible outcomes. The issue has already been discussed at a recent meeting of the European Commission’s College and will be revisited again soon.

Cyprus’ Deputy Minister of Tourism, Kostas Koumis, who chaired the meeting, said the Cypriot government will continue assessing the situation. He described the challenges as a shared European concern that requires coordinated action to protect both the tourism sector and national economies.

Cyprus currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, a six-month term that began on January 1, 2026, as part of a trio arrangement with Poland and Denmark.


https://knews.kathimerini.com.cy/en/business/eu-rejects-claims-of-imminent-jet-fuel-shortage-across-europe

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Oil and Gas

Why are Some Investors Rushing to Sell BP Shares?

According to AJ Bell, plenty of UK investors have been selling BP (LSE:BP) shares in the last month. And it’s easy enough to see why.

Oil prices have been soaring, and investors are banking some profits on the assumption the recovery is fragile. Maybe they’re right — those oil prices have reversed on Friday (17 April). So let’s dig deeper.

Oil prices

Over the last three months, Brent crude has climbed by around 37%. And that’s pushed BP shares up 22%.

Whether or not that’s justified ultimately depends on the impact on the company’s earnings. So what are analysts saying?

Expectations for this year have more than doubled. And the impact is anticipated to continue into 2027 and 2028.

A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis tells us what this means for the stock. A 9% target return implies an 80p per share increase.

With the stock up 103p since the start of the year, some of the selling arguably makes sense. But that’s not the only thing that matters.

Intrinsic value

Analysts might be upgrading the stock. But the boosted earnings to 2029 only account for 37% of the firm’s current share price.

In terms of enterprise value (EV) – which includes debt – the impact is smaller still. BP’s EV per share is more like £8.01.

On that basis, what matters most is what happens after 2029. An extra 80p per share in present value isn’t a huge deal.

In fact, earnings over the next few years matter less than investors might think. Even with the recent analyst upgrades.

Around 75% of the present value has to come from what happens after 2029. And that’s the thing to focus on.

Long term

By my calculations, BP needs to average around 34p in earnings per share over time to generate a 9% return. Is that realistic?


Source: Fiscal.ai

The firm hasn’t managed this in the last 10 years. There are, however, reasons to be more optimistic going forward.

Investments in wind and solar generation have weighed on earnings. On top of this, they’ve left the firm with excess debt.

BP, however, is focusing on strengthening its balance sheet. And the windfall from volatile oil prices should help with this.

Furthermore, the new CEO is refocusing the company on oil and gas. So the same business mistakes of a few years ago are less likely to be repeated.

Time to sell?

Investors selling BP shares are clearly looking ahead. Oil prices have already started falling and that makes the stock vulnerable.

That’s a risk. But the recent volatility should give earnings a boost that impacts the firm’s intrinsic value.


https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-investors-rushing-sell-bp-072600022.html

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Gas Prices May Not Drop Below $3 a Gallon Until Next Year: Energy Secretary Wright

KEY POINTS

  • Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Sunday said gas prices may not drop below $3 a gallon until next year, as the U.S. war with Iran continues to wreak havoc on energy markets. 
  • Tehran has largely locked up traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping channel that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil. 
  • Since the war began on Feb. 28, gas prices per gallon have soared to about $4.04 per gallon on average, according to AAA.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright appears before a House Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy hearing on the Trump administration's 2027 budget request for the Department of Energy, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 15, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright appears before a House Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy hearing on the Trump administration's 2027 budget request for the Department of Energy, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 15, 2026.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Sunday said gas prices may not drop below $3 until next year, as the U.S. war with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to wreak havoc on energy markets.

"I don't know, that could happen later this year, that might not happen until next year, but prices have likely peaked," Wright said on CNN's "State of the Union" when asked when prices at the pump will return to pre-war figures. "Certainly with a resolution of this conflict, energy prices will go down."

Wright added that "under $3 a gallon is pretty tremendous in inflation-adjusted terms. We had that in the Trump administration, but we hadn't seen that in inflation-adjusted terms for quite a long time. We'll get back there for sure."

Gas prices have spiked since the U.S. launched the war with Iran. Tehran has largely locked up the Strait of Hormuz since the war broke out, a critical shipping channel that carries about a fifth of the world's oil.

Regular unleaded sat at $2.90 per gallon on average in the U.S. on Feb. 1, according to Gasbuddy. Since the war began on Feb. 28, gas prices per gallon have soared and are currently about $4.04 per gallon on average, according to AAA.


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/19/gas-prices-drop-until-next-year-wright.html

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Eni’s Major Geliga Gas Discovery Confirms the Strategic Potential of Indonesia’s Kutei Basin and Unlocks Significant New Volumes for Domestic and International Markets

20 April 2026 - 8:00 AM CEST

San Donato Milanese (Milan), 20 April 2026 – Eni announces a new giant gas discovery made by the Geliga‑1 exploration well, drilled in the Ganal block in the Kutei Basin, offshore Indonesia, approximately 70 km from the East Kalimantan coast. Preliminary estimates indicate in-place resources of approximately 5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas and 300 million barrels of condensate in the encountered interval.

The Geliga‑1 well was drilled to a total depth of around 5,100 meters in a water depth of about 2,000 meters and encountered a significant gas column in the targeted Miocene interval, characterized by excellent petrophysical properties. A Drill Stem Test (DST) is planned to assess the productivity of the reservoir. The Geliga‑1 discovery is part of a highly successful exploration track record in the Kutei Basin and follows the Geng North giant discovery made in late 2023 only 20 km south of Geliga, as well as the more recent Konta‑1 well discovery announced in December 2025. These results confirm the significant potential of the basin’s gas play and the scalability of resources in the area.

The Geliga‑1 discovery also follows the recent Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for the Gendalo and Gandang gas project (South Hub), and for the Geng North and Gehem fields (North Hub). The North Hub project will leverage a newly built FPSO with a handling capacity of 1 bscfd of gas and 90,000 bpd of condensate, as well as the existing Bontang LNG Plant.

Analyses are ongoing to evaluate accelerated development options, also considering the proximity to existing and planned infrastructures, which offer potential synergies in terms of time‑to‑market and cost optimization. The new discovery is adjacent to the not‑yet‑developed Gula gas discovery (2 Tcf of gas in place with 75 million barrels of condensate). Initial assessments indicate that the combined Geliga and Gula resources have the capacity to produce an additional 1 bscfd of gas and 80,000 bpd of condensate, opening the possibility—among others—of establishing, in a fast‑track mode, a third production hub in the prolific Kutei Basin by mirroring the development concept of the ongoing North Hub project. Studies are also underway to evaluate a further rejuvenation of Bontang by resuming additional liquefaction capacity beyond what is already planned for the North Hub development, thus further extending the plant’s operational life.

Over the past six months, Eni has successfully drilled four other exploration wells within the same basin. The exploration campaign will continue with one additional well planned in 2026 and two further wells in 2027.

The Geliga‑1 discovery is located in the Ganal PSC, operated by Eni with an 82% interest, while Sinopec holds the remaining 18%. The Ganal PSC is part of a portfolio of 19 blocks (14 in Indonesia and 5 in Malaysia) that will be contributed to Searah, a jointly controlled company between Eni and Petronas announced in November 2025. The new company will integrate assets, technical expertise and financial capabilities to support growth and strengthen its position in Southeast Asia. Searah’s business plans include the development of approximately 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of discovered resources and the unlocking of significant exploration potential. Closing of the transaction is expected within Q2 2026. The valorization to a third party of a 10% stake in the Eni Indonesia portfolio withheld from the Searah transaction is underway and expected to be concluded in 2026. The Geliga discovery adds to the value of this sale.

Eni has been present in Indonesia since 2001 and currently holds a diversified upstream portfolio across exploration, development and production activities. Net production is approximately 90,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, mainly from the Jangkrik and Merakes fields offshore East Kalimantan.


https://www.eni.com/en-IT/media/press-release/2026/04/eni-major-geliga-gas-discovery-confirms-the-strategic-potential-of-indonesia.html

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Alternative Energy

CME Lithium Carbonate Futures Contract Records Consecutive Monthly Trading Volume High in April 2026

April 15, 2026 | By Viral Shah

Key takeaways:

  • Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) lithium carbonate futures are seeing record participation, with April volumes already well above previous monthly highs.
  • Growth in ESS projects and LFP adoption is driving increased hedging demand, supporting higher futures liquidity.
  • The forward curve structure reflects near-term uncertainty, with soft backwardation giving way to contango later in 2026

CME lithium carbonate trading volumes hit record highs in April

Trading volume on the lithium carbonate contract in April totaled 3,473 lots as of Friday April 10, with 14 trading days of the month still left.

The contract’s previous monthly trading volume high was 2,373 lots in March 2026, highlighting the growing use of lithium carbonate futures as a hedging and risk management tool among market participants.

“The growing demand for energy storage projects this year has been reflected in the healthy growth of the CME lithium carbonate contract, with this increased need to hedge directly correlated to an uptick in active participants and volumes traded on the CME,” Anna Chadwick, head of battery metals at broker Freight Investor Services (FIS), told Fastmarkets.

Prior to March and April 2026, the contract’s monthly trading volume high was 1,886 lots in May 2025.

Record daily trading volumes underline rising market participation

The CME contract also saw a record daily trading volume on April 2, when 1,600 lots were traded, while 1,404 lots were traded on April 10, now the second-highest daily trading volume on the contract.

Each lot is equivalent to 1 tonne.

The contract’s previous daily trading volume high was 1,353 lots on March 25, 2026.

The CME lithium carbonate contract, which launched in 2023 and is settled based on Fastmarkets’ CIF China, Japan and South Korea (CJK) price assessment, has shown strong growth in trading volumes and open interest since 2024, with record volumes seen through 2025.

“With the recent sustained higher spot prices and market activity, it’s great to see that that volumes are following the price trend,” Callum Perry, market development manager at Fastmarkets, said.

“Amid the growth in ESS [energy storage system] projects and LFP [lithium iron phosphate] adoption in EVs [electric vehicles], the CME futures provide a critical risk management tool for the lithium supply chain amid rising volatility and demand for lithium carbonate,” Perry added.

Near-term CME lithium carbonate contract forward curve flattens

The near-term CME lithium carbonate contract forward curve has flattened in recent weeks over the April-August portion of the curve, with April settling at $21.00 per kg on April 10, while the May contract settled at $20.45 per kg, showing a soft near-term backwardation.

From August 2026 onward, the forward curve moves into a clearer contango.

Market participants attributed the recent bullish sentiment in the lithium carbonate market to strong expected demand from the Battery Energy Storage System (ESS) sector, recent supply concerns and a broader uplift in sentiment across the base and industrial metals in early 2026.

Fastmarkets’ benchmark battery-grade lithium carbonate price assessments saw sharp gains at the start of the year but have since largely plateaued as spot market activity slowed in the CIF China, Japan and South Korea market.

Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment for lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot prices cif China, Japan & Korea was $20.50-22.50 per kg on Monday April 13, up from $20.00-22.00 per kg in the previous session.

Broader lithium futures suite supports risk management needs

A suite of lithium futures contracts, including lithium hydroxide and spodumene, which all settle based on Fastmarkets’ assessments, are listed on the CME, Singapore Exchange (SGX), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and the London Metal Exchange (LME).

(This report has been reedited after initial publication for style and clarity.)


https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/cme-lithium-carbonate-futures-contract-records-consecutive-monthly-trading-volume-high-in-april-2026/#:~:text=Chicago%20Mercantile%20Exchange%20(CME)%20lithium%20carbonate%20futures%20are%20seeing%20record,demand%2C%20supporting%20higher%20futures%20liquidity.

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Uranium

A 7.4 Magnitude Earthquake has Struck Off Japan

An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.4 struck off the northeastern coast of Japan on Monday afternoon, the Japan Meteorological Agency said. 

It warned of a tsunami as high as 3 metres in Iwate prefecture and parts of Hokkaido.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c07jpy3vxxvt

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/592898/strong-7-point-4-magnitude-quake-hits-off-japan-local-tsunami-warning-issued

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Uranium Energy (UEC) Is Up 7.3% After Burke Hollow ISR Mine Starts Production – Has The Bull Case Changed?

April 20, 2026

Reviewed by Sasha Jovanovic

  • In April 2026, Uranium Energy Corp. reported that it had received Texas Commission on Environmental Quality approval and started production at its Burke Hollow in-situ recovery uranium mine, which will send output to the Hobson plant licensed for up to 4 million pounds of uranium per year.
  • This makes Uranium Energy the only U.S. uranium producer operating two active ISR hub-and-spoke platforms, with Burke Hollow also representing the largest U.S. ISR uranium discovery of the past decade on a still only partially explored property.
  • We’ll now examine how bringing Burke Hollow into production, as a second active ISR hub, affects Uranium Energy’s broader investment narrative.

The latest GPUs need a type of rare earth metal called Dysprosium and there are only 31 companies in the world exploring or producing it. Find the list for free.

Uranium Energy Investment Narrative Recap

To own Uranium Energy, you need to believe in its plan to build a U.S. centric uranium platform, from ISR mining through to fuel products, and that it can turn today’s loss making footprint into a scaled, efficient producer. Burke Hollow moving into production directly reinforces the near term catalyst of ramping ISR output across two hubs, but it also sharpens the biggest current risk around execution across multiple simultaneous projects and wellfields.

The most connected recent announcement is Uranium Energy’s March 2026 update on new header houses at Christensen Ranch in Wyoming, which together with Burke Hollow forms the company’s twin ISR hub and spoke system. That expansion, alongside the newly producing Burke Hollow mine, sits at the heart of the volume and margin uplift many investors are watching, while also amplifying the operational and cost risks if any of these wellfields underperform.

Yet despite Burke Hollow’s progress, investors should still weigh how exposed the unhedged business is if uranium prices soften or if ISR ramp up issues emerge…

Uranium Energy's narrative projects $352.2 million revenue and $120.8 million earnings by 2028. This requires 92.0% yearly revenue growth and a $198.6 million earnings increase from $-77.8 million today.

Exploring Other Perspectives

UEC 1-Year Stock Price Chart

UEC 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Before this news, the most optimistic analysts were assuming revenue could reach about US$606.6 million with earnings near US$312.6 million, which is a far more bullish view than the baseline narrative, and highlights how differently you and other shareholders may interpret Burke Hollow’s start up and the company’s multi hub ISR growth plan.


https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/energy/nysemkt-uec/uranium-energy/news/uranium-energy-uec-is-up-73-after-burke-hollow-isr-mine-star

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Agriculture

Hedge Funds Turn Bullish on Cotton for First Time in Two Years

Money managers have turned net-bullish on cotton as surging oil prices tied to the war in Iran boost the appeal of natural fibre over increasingly expensive synthetics.

Cotton

Long positions on New York cotton outnumbered short ones by 16,825 contracts in the week ended April 14, according to data published Friday by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That reverses a sustained net-short position since April 2024.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has lifted energy prices and, with them, the cost of oil-based synthetic fibres like polyester and nylon. That shift is improving cotton’s competitiveness, according to Bin Hui Ong, a commodities analyst at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, with most-active futures climbing for the past six weeks. Asian mills in particular depend heavily on the Gulf region for feedstock used in chemical fibres, and the rising costs may push textile manufacturers to adjust blends to incorporate more cotton.

Supply risks are also adding to the rally, with rising fertiliser costs driven by the conflict threatening to curb planting and cut output in the next crop cycle. The global cotton market is projected to swing into a deficit of about 295,000 tons in the 2026-27 season, analysis firm Cotlook forecast in March, and ongoing drought in the US cotton belt has stoked uncertainty over the country’s production.

Cotton futures have climbed about 22% since the start of the war and are trading near two-year highs. That rally may have legs even if crude prices slide, Ong said.

“Even if oil related support fades, we expect cotton prices to remain well supported as the supply side optimism that weighed on prices through 2025 continues to unwind,” she said, adding that ample buffer stocks may cap the upside.

The new net-long position, which was the most bullish in about two years, comes after long-only positions rose to 56,736 lots and short positions fell to a 23-month low, according to the CFTC data. 


https://ww.fashionnetwork.com/news/Hedge-funds-turn-bullish-on-cotton-for-first-time-in-two-years,1824905.html

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Crypto

Bitcoin Price Drops to $75K as New Hormuz Closure Puts Focus on Oil

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to protect $75,000 into Sunday’s weekly close as crypto surfed fresh uncertainty over the US-Iran war.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin price action sinks from ten-week highs amid fears that the US-Iran war has returned in full force.
  • Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, bringing back the risk of an oil-price surge.
  • BTC price action faces ongoing resistance at a 21-week trend line into the weekly close.

Bitcoin abandons highs as US-Iran war fears return

Data from TradingView showed BTC price pressure reentering after a trip to ten-week highs of $78,400 on Friday.


Mixed signals from US and Iranian sources characterized the weekend, with an assumed ceasefire and mutual agreements between the two sides now seemingly undone.

Among the latest developments was the repeat closure of the Strait of Hormuz, putting the focus on oil futures on the day. News of a ceasefire had sent WTI crude below $80 per barrel for the first time since March 10.

“We expect an eventful Sunday ahead,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in ongoing analysis on X.


As BTCUSD circled local highs, and sentiment with it, market participants stayed cautious. Trading resource Material Indicators noted that the entire market mood could flip on relatively little input, such as a social media post.

“Sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish at the moment, but that could change with one Tweet in the coming days. Know your invalidations,” it told X followers.

Data from CoinGlass showed long positions coming under fire during the BTC price retracement, with total crypto liquidations at $260 million over the past 24 hours.


BTC price capped by resistance trend line

Continuing, trader Daan Crypto Trades eyed a potential gap in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market opening as a result of the weekend comedown.

As Cointelegraph reported, such gaps often act as short-term price magnets when the new week begins.

“It's going to be interesting to see the futures open today and how $OIL will react to the recent headlines regarding the strait,” he added.


Looking at the weekly close, trader and analyst Rekt Capital placed importance on Bitcoin’s 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $78,900.


https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:a431ac6bc094b:0-bitcoin-price-drops-to-75k-as-new-hormuz-closure-puts-focus-on-oil/

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Aluminum Giant Alcoa to Sell Dormant Smelter to Bitcoin Miner NYDIG: Report

US aluminium giant Alcoa is reportedly nearing a deal to offload its long-idle Massena East smelter in upstate New York to Bitcoin mining firm New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG).

The company is in advanced discussions and expects the transaction to close “in the middle part of this year,” CEO Bill Oplinger told Bloomberg on Friday. The site, located along the St. Lawrence River, has been inactive since 2014 after Alcoa shut it down amid rising energy costs and global competition.

Built for 24/7 heavy industrial operations, aluminum smelters come with pre-existing substations, transmission lines and high-capacity grid connections. That makes them attractive targets for Bitcoin miners and data center operators, who often spend years securing similar infrastructure approvals from scratch.

Massena East also benefits from hydropower supplied by the New York Power Authority, a key draw for energy-intensive computing firms seeking low-cost and lower-carbon power sources.

US smelters reborn as crypto, AI data centers

The potential sale comes amid a broader trend across the US, where retired industrial sites are being repurposed for digital infrastructure. Earlier this year, Century Aluminum sold its Hawesville smelter in Kentucky to TeraWulf for $200 million, with plans to convert it into a high-performance computing and AI facility rather than traditional industrial use.

Meanwhile, NYDIG has been growing its footprint in Bitcoin (BTC) mining infrastructure. The firm, owned by Stone Ridge, already holds a stake in Coinmint, which operates mining hardware at the same campus under a long-term lease.

Last year, Crusoe Energy also agreed to sell its Bitcoin mining business, including its digital flare mitigation operations, to NYDIG.

Bitcoin miners pivot to AI

NYDIG’s renewed push into Bitcoin mining comes as other miners are increasingly pivoting toward AI and cloud computing as shrinking margins in mining push them to diversify revenue streams.

Earleir this year, MARA Holdings acquired a 64% stake in French infrastructure company Exaion, giving the company a foothold in AI services. Other miners, including Hive, Hut 8, TeraWulf and Iren, are also repurposing mining facilities into data centers, while some, such as CoreWeave, have fully transitioned into AI-focused infrastructure.


https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:ec2144261094b:0-aluminum-giant-alcoa-to-sell-dormant-smelter-to-bitcoin-miner-nydig-report/

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Precious Metals

Aris Mining Completes Underground Connection at Marmato Gold Mine

The Higabra Valley Tunnel at Continental Gold's Buriticá goldmine in Antioquia.

Infrastructure Progress Advances Marmato 2026 Gold Production Goals

Aris Mining (TSX: ARIS; NYSE: ARIS) confirmed the completion of an underground infrastructure connection at its Marmato gold mine in Colombia. The development involved connecting a new surface decline to the existing underground mining workings.

This cross-cut connection serves as a technical step for the ongoing expansion project, which includes the construction of a 5,000 tons-per-day carbon-in-pulp (CIP) plant. The company stated that the infrastructure is currently on schedule to support the initiation of gold production in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Neil Woodyer, Chair and CEO of Aris Mining, stated: “The on-schedule connection of the new surface decline to the existing underground development is a major milestone for Marmato and an important step in delivering our expansion plans.”

The Marmato expansion is part of a broader strategy intended to increase the company’s annual gold production. Aris Mining aims to achieve a combined output of approximately 500,000 ounces per year from its Segovia and Marmato operations. The Segovia mine previously expanded its operational capacity following the installation of a second mill in June 2025.

The company maintains a long-term production objective of approximately 1 million ounces of gold annually. This target incorporates potential production from the Toroparu gold project in Guyana, where a prefeasibility study is currently underway. Aris Mining expects a construction decision regarding the Toroparu project in early 2027.

Regarding its portfolio in Colombia, the company is finalizing environmental studies for the Soto Norte gold project. Aris Mining plans to submit these documents for the licensing process during the second quarter of 2026.

Photo (© Loren Moss) illustrative only (Not marmato mine)


https://www.financecolombia.com/aris-mining-completes-underground-connection-at-marmato-gold-mine/

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Base Metals

CHART: Copper Price, Aluminum ‘Black Hole’ Fears Lift LME Base Metals Index to Record High

Bloomberg News | April 17, 2026 | 3:07 am

A gauge of industrial metals jumped to a record high on the London Metal Exchange on Thursday, driven by gains in aluminum after the Middle East war disrupted supplies, as well as a recent revival in copper.

The LME Index, which tracks six major metals, has rallied by almost 12% over the past four weeks and was at an all-time peak at the close of trading. Aluminum has risen more than 15% since the start of the Iran war, with roughly a 10th of global output coming from the Middle East.

Aluminum has the biggest weighting in the LME gauge, and prices for the metal hit a four-year high on Thursday, moving closer to a record struck in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Together with copper — which has also moved back towards a record reached in January — the two metals make up almost three-quarters of the index.

Nickel, zinc and tin have also rallied this year, although none of the individual constituents of the index are at all-time highs.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has warned the aluminum industry was heading toward a “black hole” as a serious, prolonged supply deficit is hitting the market after supply losses escalated dramatically in the wake of Iranian strikes directly targeting two key smelters in Abu Dhabi and Bahrain at the end of last month. A double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — by the US and Iran — is also keeping shipments stranded.

But while the waterway remains closed, hopes that a ceasefire between the US and Iran will be extended and signs the two sides may be moving closer to a peace deal have aided other metals. They were hit by soaring energy costs and fears of slowing global growth due to the war, but have recovered in recent weeks on signs the conflict might be winding down.

President Donald Trump claimed on Thursday, without evidence, that Iran had agreed to terms it has long resisted, including giving up ambitions for a nuclear weapon. Tehran hasn’t confirmed it’s made concessions.

“Traders are building back positions in base metals and front-running the move, even though the Iran war has yet to be resolved,” said Gao Yin, an analyst at Shuohe Asset Management Co. “They also like to trade on the certainty of aluminum supply disruptions.”

Mercuria Energy Group and BMO Capital Markets forecast this week that copper would surpass a record high hit in January. They cited Chinese buyers coming back to the market and a looming decision on tariffs from the White House that’s encouraging more shipments to the US. Copper has rallied 11% in the last four weeks, and is around 3% off its all-time closing price peak.

The LMEX Metals Index rose 3.6% this week through Thursday. Most metals were down on Friday. Aluminum fell 0.4% to $3,629 a ton as of 8:39 a.m. local time. Copper dipped 0.4%, while nickel rose 1.8%.


https://www.mining.com/web/chart-copper-price-aluminum-black-hole-fears-lift-lme-base-metals-index-to-record-high/

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Coal

China Revives Coal-to-Gas Megaproject as War Disrupts Global Energy Flows

By Charles Kennedy - Apr 20, 2026, 3:30 AM CDT

A project for the conversion of coal to gas in China has been revived and is set to launch this year as the world’s top energy importer grapples with the fallout of the war in the Middle East.

Work on the Fuxin project began in 2011, with a price tag of $3.7 billion, but three years later, it was suspended because the project had become too problematic, Bloomberg reported today. The problems included environmental concerns, cost, and logistical and technical challenges.

Its revival this year suggests that the market environment has changed sufficiently to improve the economics of the project, as the war between the U.S. and Israel, and Iran, disrupts the global gas supply balance and prompts a search for alternative supply.

China currently has more coal than it can use as is, Bloomberg noted in its report, while its supply of natural gas has been compromised by infrastructure damage in the Gulf. There are as many as 13 coal-to-gas projects either already under construction or in the planning stages across China. Construction time could take up to five years, Bloomberg reported, but if all these projects get built, they could boost China’s synthetic gas production capacity seven times, to reach over 52 billion cu m. This would be equal to 12% of the country’s total gas supply, consultancy OilChem says.

China continues to nearly single-handedly prop up global coal consumption growth and new coal-fired power generation, despite also being the world’s leading investor in renewables and battery storage.

The country is set to commission as many as 85 coal-fired power generating units this year, out of a total global of 104 coal projects slated for start-up in 2026, according to data by non-profit Global Energy Monitor released earlier this year. In addition to power generation, China is using coal to produce gas, liquids, and chemicals.


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Revives-Coal-to-Gas-Megaproject-as-War-Disrupts-Global-Energy-Flows.html

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