US May Finalize 15% Refined Copper Tariff by End-Jun; G Sachs Lifts End-Yr LME Copper Price Forecast by 10%+
2026/06/01 04:55 BST
Copper prices in New York and London ascended as less than one month remains before the US tariff deadline.
The US Secretary of Commerce must submit an updated recommendation on refined copper tariffs to US President Donald Trump by June 30, in order to determine whether the US will formally impose a 15% tariff on refined copper starting next year.
Ahead of the official decision, the premium of US copper prices over the rest of the world widened again, prompting a surge of copper shipments into US ports.
As of 11:44 am today (1st), copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 0.4% to USD13,687.5 per ton; copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed 1% to USD6.45 per pound, marking the highest closing level since May 14.
Copper prices have accumulated a 5% gain in May. Goldman Sachs has raised its end-year price forecast for LME copper by more than 10%, reflecting US stockpiling of copper and weaker-than-expected mine supply, which is expected to tighten market supply.
The bank now expects copper prices to reach USD13,735 per ton by the end of this year, more than 10% higher than its previous forecast of USD12,465 per ton. The projection is based on expectations that the US will once again delay tariffs on refined metals.
BEIJING, May 31 (Xinhua) -- An article by Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, on proactively planning and developing future industries is set to be published on Monday.
The article by Xi, also Chinese president and chairman of the Central Military Commission, will be published in this year's 11th issue of the Qiushi Journal, a flagship magazine of the CPC Central Committee.
Cultivating and developing future industries is of great significance for seizing the initiative in development, developing new quality productive forces, and improving the people's quality of life, said the article.
It noted that focused efforts and targeted policies should be implemented in fields such as quantum technology and biomanufacturing.
Industrial coordination should be strengthened to ensure that future industries, emerging industries, and traditional industries complement and reinforce each other, it said.
The article pointed out the need to step up breakthroughs in core technologies in key fields, strengthen the strategic, forward-looking, and systematic layout of basic research, and accelerate the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements.
Efforts should be made to vigorously foster first-class scientific and technological enterprises and high-tech enterprises that excel in core technologies and possess strong innovation capacities, it said.
The article stressed efforts to improve fiscal and taxation policies, vigorously develop technology finance, optimize government procurement, and do a good job in talent cultivation, introduction and utilization to foster a robust environment that encourages innovation.
It is also necessary to establish a sound governance system for future industries, said the article, noting that efforts are needed to secure both development and security, as well as to deepen international cooperation.
Officials at all levels should strengthen their knowledge of frontier science and technology and strive to possess knowledge of technology, understand industries, and make sound decisions, it said.
http://www.shanghaisun.com/news/279093191/update-xi-on-developing-future-industries-to-be-published
Beijing (China)/Manila (Philippines), May 31 (ANI): Chinese state media on Sunday reported that its military conducted combat readiness patrols near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, even as Philippine authorities dismissed Beijing's claims of active tactical exercises in the region as 'completely unfounded'.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theatre Command organised the patrols across the territorial waters, airspace, and surrounding areas of the shoal, which Beijing refers to as Huangyan Dao, state-run Xinhua news agency reported. Beijing had previously announced the drills as a 'countermeasure' against perceived violations of its maritime claims.
However, Manila pushed back against the narrative, stating that while Chinese vessels are present, no actual military drills are taking place.
The official Philippine News Agency, citing the Armed Forces of the Philippines, confirmed the presence of PLA Navy and China Coast Guard (CCG) ships in the vicinity of the shoal, which Manila calls Bajo de Masinloc or Panatag Shoal, but denied that any coordinated manoeuvres were underway.
'The AFP has monitored the reported presence of PLAN and CCG vessels in the vicinity of Bajo de Masinloc. Our coordinated maritime domain awareness confirms that their claims of coordinated military drills are completely unfounded,' Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, the AFP spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, was quoted as saying.
The development comes following a joint a five-day joint maritime exercise by Philippine and US forces near the same waters from May 26-30.
The exercises, according to a statement by the Armed Forces of Philippines 'reflects the enduring commitment of the Philippines and the United States to deepen defence cooperation, strengthen maritime domain awareness, and uphold a rules-based international order.'
The strategically vital Scarborough Shoal, a triangular-shaped chain of reefs and rocks with a central lagoon, has been a volatile flashpoint of tensions and standoffs between the two countries.
The Shoal, traditionally a rich fishing ground and a strategic maritime landmark, is located 200 km from the Philippines coast and within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) under UNCLOS.
It is part of the South China Sea disputes including Spratlys, Paracels, Nine-Dash Line, where China's nine-dash line overlaps with the EEZs of Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. (ANI)
Despite global conflicts and economic disruptions, the U.S. stock market continues to surge. The S&P 500 was up 9% year-to-date through May 27, causing Goldman Sachs to raise their year-end price target to 8,000 points, up from its prior target of 7,600 (1). JPMorgan Private Bank’s forecast was arguably sunnier, saying it saw a path to 9,000 by mid-2027 (2).
In fact, the gains have been so attractive that even President Donald Trump is getting involved. In the first quarter of 2026, Trump disclosed 3,600 buy and sell orders for publicly listed stocks ranging from Nvidia and Tesla to Shake Shack and Papa John’s, according to a regulatory filing cited by the Associated Press (3).
In this environment, if you have any spare cash or savings, it’s tempting to deploy it in Trump’s stock market. But would that cash be better spent on paying off your mortgage early?
Here’s what the math and data actually suggest.
Understanding the spread
When picking between mortgage repayment or stock investments, it’s important to understand the relative returns from either financial move.
Historically, the S&P 500 has delivered about a 10% annual average total return, according to JPMorgan Chase (4). Past performance is not a perfect indicator of future returns, but this long-term average is a good benchmark to consider when you’re putting money in the market.
By comparison, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage interest rate is 6.36% as of mid-May 2026, per the Federal Reserve (5). That means that if your mortgage is near the average national rate, paying it off right now would be the equivalent of a “guaranteed return” of 6.36%.
Doing the math, the spread between the long-term average of the S&P 500 (10%) and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate (6.36%) is currently around 3.64%, so it seems justified — on paper — to invest in stocks rather than pay off your debt early.
But that’s only part of the story.
Unlike your mortgage rate, stock returns can be highly volatile. For instance, JPMorgan Chase points out that the S&P 500 showed an average total annual return of 16% between 2016 and 2025 — but when you look at the returns of individual years in that same period, they range from a 31.49% gain in 2019 to an 18.11% loss in 2022.
In other words, you can’t predict with certainty if the market will be up 30% or down 20% by the end of any given year. Your mortgage is fixed, however, and paying it off has a clear measurable return.
But there’s also a good chance your mortgage deviates from the current national average. If you locked in your home loan a few years ago and secured a 3% or 4% rate for 30 years, the spread is wider, which tilts the calculation in favor of stocks.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/p-500-returns-10-average-143000342.html
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Sunday that no agreement with US would be approved unless Tehran was certain it had secured its rights.
Iran’s authorities have ordered the seizure of assets belonging to 75 people on accusations of working with “hostile media,” judiciary-affiliated Mizan News reported on Sunday.
US President Donald Trump said Iran had agreed to refrain from developing a nuclear weapon or acquiring one by other means.
US and Iranian accounts about a possible agreement diverged sharply, with IRGC-linked outlets saying no final text exists and rejecting Trump’s claims on Hormuz, uranium and frozen funds.
Two people were arrested in Iran’s northwestern city of Urmia on accusations of aiding Israel, IRGC-linked media reported on Sunday.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards navy said on Sunday that 28 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, crossed the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours after receiving permits.
Police in Iran sealed a cafe over accusations that it promoted what authorities called “satanic activities,” state media reported on Sunday.
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. BP is preparing to drill test wells in Brazil to determine whether its largest oil discovery in 25 years is commercially viable. The company said it will drill three appraisal wells by mid-2027 at the Bumerangue block in the Santos basin, about 400 kilometres south of Rio de Janeiro.
Discovery details
BP found a hydrocarbon deposit 5,855 metres deep at the site in August 2025. Initial estimates put the vertical hydrocarbon column at about 500 metres, but a BP update in late October said the discovery spans a total hydrocarbon column of around 1,000 metres, including a 100-metre crude oil column and a 900-metre gas-condensate column.
Reservoir and testing
The reservoir is made up of high-quality pre-salt carbonate rocks and covers an area of more than 300 square kilometres, roughly the size of Paris. BP is carrying out laboratory tests to assess the reservoir’s characteristics, gas-to-oil and condensate-to-gas ratios, and to estimate volumes. Appraisal planning is underway, and drilling is expected to begin in early 2027, subject to regulatory approvals.
Company response
Gordon Birrell, BP’s executive vice president of production and operations, said: “This year has seen significant delivery for BP’s upstream business, with six major project start-ups, a further five sanctioned and a sequence of discoveries, including Bumerangue. While still in exploration phase, initial results are encouraging, indicating a large hydrocarbon column and material volume of liquids in the reservoir.”
Partnership search
BP said from the outset that it was seeking a partner to develop the deposit. The company said the process could take one to two years, with the aim of securing a deal before making a final investment decision. Andre Guevara, head of BP Brazil, said Petrobras, Brazil’s state-owned oil company, is a potential partner. Analysts had already identified Petrobras as the frontrunner.
Armenian authorities said there are no problems with gas supplies from Russia after receiving a letter from the Russian side regarding the possible suspension or denunciation of the agreement on natural gas supplies to the republic if Yerevan continues its process of joining the European Union.
The statement was made by Armenian Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure Davit Khudatyan.
"We received this information from our colleagues, took note of it, and are working with them as necessary. We remain in a normal working mode. Nothing more," he told the news.am website.
Khudatyan noted that supplies from Russia continue as usual and that there are no problematic issues. "We remain in constant contact with our Russian colleagues and colleagues from Gazprom, and we are working normally," the minister said.
At the same time, he declined to comment on the possibility of higher gas prices for Armenia and assured that interaction with Russian partners is proceeding "in a natural working manner."
Khudatyan also stressed that "the content of the letter is not exactly as it is being portrayed in the press," where "this information is presented in a much sharper way." However, he did not disclose details of the letter.
Earlier, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova reported that the Armenian side had received a letter from Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev stating that if Armenia continues the process of joining the EU, Moscow "will suspend or unilaterally denounce the agreement between the government of the Russian Federation and the government of Armenia on cooperation in the supply of natural gas, petroleum products, and unprocessed natural diamonds to Armenia dated December 2, 2013."
Yerevan confirmed receipt of the letter and stated that it would respond if deemed necessary.
https://www.miragenews.com/armenias-minister-plays-along-with-russian-1683395/
The European Union is considering the possibility of temporarily freezing the current price cap on Russian oil due to a sharp rise in global prices amid the war with Iran and shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. This was reported by Bloomberg, according to UNN.
Details
Currently, the price cap for Russian Urals crude oil stands at $44.10 per barrel. It is automatically reviewed every six months and must remain 15% below the average market value. According to the agency's sources, the next review in July could raise the limit to at least $65 per barrel.
In Brussels, several options are being discussed: leaving the current limit unchanged, postponing the automatic increase until the end of the year, or capping the new threshold at $60, a level previously agreed upon by the G7. The restriction prohibits European companies from insuring and transporting Russian oil sold above the established limit.
According to Bloomberg, these measures could be included in the EU's 21st package of sanctions against Russia. Restrictions are also being considered for additional banks, oil traders, crypto operators, and about 20 vessels of the so-called "shadow fleet" that Moscow uses to circumvent oil sanctions. A final decision will require the unanimous support of all EU member states.
https://unn.ua/en/amp/eu-discusses-freezing-oil-price-caps-for-russia-amid-war-with-iran
Chevron (CVX 0.34%) reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.41 per share. That figure is materially lower than the $2.18 it earned in the year-ago period, which sounds really bad. Especially when you see that the company's realized oil price rose just over 6.5% year over year. There's a lot going on under the covers here, and much of it is positive.
Timing was a problem for Chevron
Chevron is one of the world's largest energy companies. It has operations around the world, produces oil and natural gas, and operates across the entire energy value chain, from the upstream (energy production) to the midstream (pipelines) to the downstream (chemicals and refining). It is a very complex business, and one important piece is hedging. But hedging activities don't always align well with quarterly earnings.
In the first quarter, Chevron's earnings were unfavorably impacted by its hedging efforts to the tune of $2.9 billion. That hit should reverse itself in future quarters, but the near-term impact is that it may have made the company's first quarter look worse than it really was.
In fact, the company's production rose in the quarter, which is a good sign. Part of that came from its acquisition of Hess, but another important story was the company's one million barrels per day of production in the Permian Basin. That was the fifth quarter in a row that production exceeded one million barrels. Management is focusing on generating robust cash flow from the region, but believes it could increase production there if it wanted to.
Given the ongoing integration of Hess and the production boost it brings, leaning into the Premian wasn't a key priority. Still, year-over-year production jumped a huge 15% globally and 24% in the U.S. market. In other words, Chevron was able to grow its business despite the conflict in the Middle East. And there could be more room for growth even if the conflict lingers beyond the point when Hess is fully accounted for in the production numbers.
News flow is driving the stock, but not the business
The big story in the energy patch is clearly the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Given its near-term impact on oil prices, it makes sense. Chevron's stock price has benefited. However, Chevron thinks in decades when it makes decisions. Chevron's business is being affected by events in the Middle East, and investors should be aware of that. But the company's strong production growth is a sign that management is looking beyond today's turmoil, and you may want to do the same.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/31/chevrons-earnings-dropped-year-over-year-but-produ/
By Irina Slav - May 30, 2026, 6:00 PM CDT
China has been cited as an example of a country that has managed to insulate itself relatively well against oil crises. With over a billion barrels in estimated inventories before the war in the Middle East started, China was the poster child of forward planning in energy security. But this could change, and if it does, it would make an already severe crisis even worse.
Kpler sounded the alarm about that prospect earlier this month, reporting that Chinese refiners have reduced their purchases of oil from overseas because of the price surge caused by the war between the U.S. and Israel and Iran, effectively reducing China's role as a participant in international price-setting.
Indeed, per Kpler, Chinese oil imports have fallen more substantially than refiners’ run rates amid the energy price jump, suggesting they were relying more on oil from inventories. But demand is not falling fast or sharply enough—and this means China may have to start importing more again, which would lead to a sharp, possibly unpleasant price correction given the overwhelming bearish sentiment that still grips oil markets.
China’s crude oil imports this month are estimated at 6.78 million barrels per day, Kpler’s senior crude oil analyst Muyu Xu reported this week. This would be the lowest monthly oil import figure in close to ten years and a sharp drop from April’s 8.5 million barrels daily. For more context, Kpler’s analyst noted that China’s average daily oil import rate last year was 10.66 million barrels. About a million barrels per day of that 2025 average went into storage, which is now being drawn to satisfy domestic fuel demand and exports.
Refinery rates in the country are averaging 13.5 million barrels daily, Kpler’s Muyu said, which is down by 154,000 barrels daily from April and also down by over 1.9 million barrels daily from 2025. But consumption of oil products is notoriously resilient. Despite some demand destruction from international oil prices, China remains a massive consumer of the commodity—and its government likely has no intention of letting its oil in storage fall to a dangerously low level. Which means imports will eventually begin to rebound.
Interestingly, earlier oil flow figures for China showed that despite a drop in imports—down 20% on the year in April—Chinese oil buyers continued to set aside some crude for storage. While the average daily imports for last month stood at 9.25 million barrels, down by a significant 2.4 million barrels from a year earlier, refiners put an estimated 430,000 barrels daily into storage to keep the supply shock cushion in good condition, per Reuters’ energy columnist Clyde Russell. Other estimates peg the recent additions to the storage cushion even higher, at 580,000 bpd for April, per Vortexa.
Earlier estimates of China’s oil in storage ranged from 1.2 billion to 1.3 billion barrels. The amount was seen as sufficient to last four months, according to Rush Doshi, director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations, who told CNBC in March that “China has taken the last 20 years to reduce some of its dependence on maritime oil flows.”
A lot of this buffer has come from Russia and Iran, but the price of these sanctioned crude barrels is also up after the United States issued sanction waivers to put a lid on prices. Kpler’s Muyu notes that Chinese oil buyers have fewer buying options than their peers overseas due to a retaliatory 22.5% tariff on U.S. crude and restrictions on Venezuelan oil buying. Not only this, but the U.S. waiver on Russian crude only covers oil loaded before April 17, the analyst pointed out, and that is about to run out sometime around mid-June.
There is also intense competition from India for Russian barrels covered by the sanction waiver, Muyu also noted, further limiting Chinese refiners’ options. For now, there is oil in inventory, but not for very long. Per Kpler, some so-called teapots have enough crude until early June. With prices where they are, even with the latest dip on ceasefire news, crude is much more expensive than it was before the war. This means teapots may have to cut run rates further, freeing up space for state-owned refiners—which also face a limited choice of suppliers. And Beijing would not like to see its oil inventories draw down too much.
This basically means Chinese refiners will be returning to global markets before long—just when the worst of the Middle East crisis hits, which the IEA warned could happen in July or August, with its secretary-general calling it “the red zone” for oil supply. In other words, Chinese oil buyers may start ramping up purchases at the worst possible moment in terms of available and accessible supply.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chinas-Oil-Buying-Pause-Wont-Last-Forever.html
By Felicity Bradstock - May 30, 2026, 10:00 AM CDT
Morocco is rapidly becoming a renewable energy powerhouse thanks to its favourable weather conditions and proximity to Europe. The North African country has rapidly developed its solar energy sector and is now looking to become a major green hydrogen and sustainable shipping hub.
Morocco has long been heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports and continues to use coal to produce around 60 percent of its electricity. However, in recent years, it has been working to develop its renewable energy sources, with high levels of private investment in the sector supporting these efforts. The growth in the country’s green energy capacity is expected to help it tackle energy price volatility. The Moroccan government aims to achieve a 52 percent renewable energy share in the electricity mix by 2030 and 70 percent by 2050.
By the end of 2025, Morocco had an estimated 5.5 GW of operational renewable energy capacity, accounting for 45.4 percent of Morocco’s total installed capacity. This includes 2.1 GW of hydropower, 2.4 GW of wind power, and 961 MW of solar installations. In previous decades, Morocco has focused on expanding its wind power; however, with significant interest in the country’s solar sector, its solar power capacity is expected to rapidly increase in the coming years.
Morocco is highly suited to solar power installations, with one of the highest solar insolation rates in the world, at over 3,000 hours of sunshine per year. The North African country’s solar technology imports have risen by around 46 percent in the first quarter of 2026, demonstrating the growing interest in developing the sector.
The Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (MASEN) has authorised approximately 66 renewable energy projects with a combined capacity of 6 GW since 2021. MASEN and the national utility ONEE are now jointly planning to add around 4.4 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, including 2.5 GW of new solar installations and 1.9 GW of new wind capacity. This will be achieved with support from private investors. Law 13-09, enacted in 2009, opened Morocco’s market to private developers, allowing them to develop renewable plants and sell electricity directly to consumers via the national grid.
Saudi Arabia's renewables developer ACWA Power has been awarded the Noor Midelt II and Noor Midelt III solar projects, each with a 400 MW capacity and a 602 MWh battery capacity. France’s EDF, Masdar, and Green of Africa were selected to construct the first stage – an 800-MW complex incorporating both PV and concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies.
In May, the Chinese Jinko Solar company announced plans to develop a 90 MW power plantproject in Morocco. It will use Tiger Neo 3.0 modules that are designed for hot, extreme summer heat regions. The modules have advanced resistance to dust and sand, making them suitable for deployment in the country’s desert regions.
Morocco has attracted high levels of private investment in its solar sector, largely thanks to its proximity to Europe, as several countries aim to import clean solar power from the North African country, which is better suited to solar energy production. Several European powers are now looking to diversify their energy mixes more rapidly, as they have reduced reliance on Russian energy following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and due to ongoing geopolitical issues affecting energy trade.
In addition to expanding its solar and wind power capacity, Morocco is aiming to become a global leader in green shipping. Global shipping contributes roughly 3 percent of total human-caused greenhouse gas emissions annually, a figure that is expected to rise as international trade continues to increase unless more is done to decarbonise the sector.
One of the most promising methods to reduce shipping emissions is the replacement of traditional shipping fuels with green hydrogen. Several factors make Morocco attractive to green hydrogen developers, including its advantageous geographic position, abundant renewable energy resources, and cost-effective hydrogen production potential.
In 2025, a Moroccan government committee approved green hydrogen projects valued at $32.5 billion to produce ammonia, steel, and industrial fuel. The government hopes green hydrogen – produced by splitting water through electrolysis, using renewable energy – will help it meet its domestic energy goals as well as boost exports to the European Union.
The Moroccan government’s strategic framework for developing the green hydrogen sectorfocuses closely on improving the country’s port infrastructure. One World Bank study analyses four key ports – Tanger Med, Mohammedia, Jorf Lasfar, and a port in the vicinity of Tan-Tan – that could all be vital to the success of Morocco’s green hydrogen ambitions. At present, Tanger Med, one of the world’s largest container ports, handles around 1.5 million tonnes of fossil-based bunker fuel every year. By shifting to green hydrogen, the port could provide a blueprint for other major ports to support more sustainable shipping practices.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Morocco-Is-Emerging-as-a-Renewable-Energy-Superpower.html
