Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Thursday 20 February 2025
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Featured

Investors at Boiling Point! (BP)

Nearly 50 major investors in BP (BP.L) have called on the oil giant to let them vote on potential plans to scrap its climate goals.

BP is holding a strategy meeting next week where it is widely expected to pull back from renewable energy promises, which have made less money than expected in recent years.

Instead, the company is likely to refocus on oil and gas production in a bid to boost its share price and profit.

BP made about £7.2 billion last year, down one-third on the year before, after oil and gas prices fell from the highs seen in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But the group of investors, which includes Scottish Widows, Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) and Royal London Asset Management arm, wrote to BP on Wednesday to say they expect a say on any plans.

“BP has previously offered a shareholder vote on its transition strategy and we expect a similar level of accountability to be maintained for future material strategy changes,” they wrote in a letter to BP chair Helge Lund, seen by the PA news agency.

A spokesperson for Royal London Asset Management added: “As long-term shareholders, we recognise BP’s past efforts toward energy transition but remain concerned about the company’s continued investment in fossil fuel expansion.

“Despite industry commitments, emissions from oil and gas companies are still rising, and we need to see tangible progress in aligning capital expenditure with credible low-carbon scenarios.

“If BP has decided to scrap its production target, we seek clarity on how capital allocation will shift to ensure resilience through the energy transition.”

The group of 48 investment and pension firms also includes Rathbones Investment Management, the Local Authority Pension Fund Forum and the University Pension Plan.

The demands will likely set the group of investors on a collision course with the US hedge fund Elliott Management, which recently built a roughly 5% stake in BP.

Elliott has a reputation for taking large stakes in struggling companies and demanding changes in management and strategy.

It is expected to demand that BP scraps climate goals including a promise to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Just three years ago, BP reported record annual profits of £23 billion.

But some investors are unhappy with its recent performance, amid a slump in its share price and lagging profit compared to competitors like Shell.

BP confirmed that it had received the letter, and said it would respond in due course.

Elliott Management was approached for comment.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-investors-demand-vote-plans-141937055.html

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Macro

Commodity Intelligence Client and Worshipful Company of Fuellers Visit to Cornish Lithium - sign up?

Jeremy Wrathall from Cornish Lithium.

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Glencore considers ditching UK stock market listing

Commodities trader Glencore is considering ditching its primary listing in the UK in favour of New York or another location where it can “get the right valuation”.

This would deal another big blow to the London Stock Exchange, which has been hit by a string of high profile departures.

Chief executive Gary Nagle said the company was assessing whether other exchanges were “better suited to trade our securities”. He told journalists:

"Ultimately, what we want to ensure is that our securities are traded on the right exchange where we can get the right and optimal valuation for our stock. There have been questions raised previously around whether London is the right exchange.

If there’s a better one, and those include the likes of the New York stock exchange, we have to consider that."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/feb/19/transport-food-costs-private-school-fees-push-uk-inflation-business-live?page=with:block-67b59ec18f08bfcd4edd9d62

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Oil

Putin suggests Kazakhstan provide Russia with equipment for CPC overhaul

On Feb. 17, a Ukrainian drone attacked the pipeline / Photo: Kremlin.ru

Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged foreign investors, including those from Kazakhstan, to supply Russia with the equipment necessary to maintain the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), despite international sanctions.

Putin made the statement during a meeting with top Russian officials regarding a drone attack on a pump station along the CPC, the main route for Kazakh oil exports.

«This is not a Russian organization; this is an international organization. This is why, as far as I am concerned, this oil belongs to all foreign investors under the product-sharing agreement. I mean the oil that went through the CPC pipeline. I believe these companies are participating in estimating the damage caused by the attack. They are also trying to identify a possible timeline for restoring the facility and their role in this process,» Putin said.

He emphasized that foreign investors must supply the necessary equipment despite sanctions if they want CPC operations to resume.

«If there is something the Russian government can do, please do it,» Putin added, addressing the Russian cabinet.

The CPC was attacked on Feb. 17. Russian authorities immediately blamed Ukraine for the attack, and Kyiv confirmed the claim.

Russian company Transneft, one of CPC’s shareholders, estimated that recovery operations would take between 45 and 60 days. Meanwhile, experts say Kazakhstan’s oil exports through the pipeline may decline by 30%, potentially costing the country $600 million in revenue.

However, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy stated that the CPC continues to accept Kazakh oil under its regular schedule without limitations.

Russia is the largest CPC shareholder with a 24% stake. Kazakhstan is represented by KazMunayGas (19%). Other shareholders include Chevron Caspian Pipeline Consortium Company (15%), Mobil Caspian Pipeline Company (7.5%), Lukoil (12.5%), Rosneft-Shell Caspian Ventures Ltd., a Russian-U.K. joint venture (7.5%), Eni International N.A. N.V. S.ar.l. (2%), BG Overseas Holdings Ltd. (2%), Oryx Caspian Pipeline LLC (1.75%) and Kazakhstan Pipeline Ventures LLC (1.75%).


https://kz.kursiv.media/en/2025-02-19/engk-tank-putin-suggests-kazakhstan-provide-russia-with-equipment-for-cpc-overhaul/

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Oil and Gas

Trump Says Chevron’s Venezuela Oil Exports Under Review


(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp.’s ability to continue exporting crude from Venezuela is under review, President Donald Trump said, signaling an openness to tighter restraints on the oil giant’s operations in the South American country.

“We’re looking at that now,” Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida on Tuesday. “We’re looking at the whole situation.”

Trump’s remarks underscore continued tensions with Venezuela that could spill over to the energy trade. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro recently released American prisoners and accepted immigrants deported from the US following talks with Trump envoy Richard Grenell, moves seen as an effort to head off the threat of additional sanctions.

But asked Tuesday whether he would be inclined to continue to allow oil exports through Chevron, Trump said: “Maybe not.”

Despite sanctions curtailing business dealings in Venezuela, Chevron holds a waiver from the US government allowing it to continue operations in the country.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other Republican politicians have called for the US to revoke that operating license, casting it as a financial lifeline for the Maduro regime. Chevron produces about a fifth of Venezuela’s oil and helped boost exports to a five-year high in 2024, nearing Maduro’s goal of 1 million barrels per day.

Chevron has been able to boost exports of synthetic oil through operational changes and equipment replacements, Bloomberg News reported last week.

“Chevron has been a constructive presence in Venezuela for over a century, where we have dedicated investments and a large workforce,” the company said in an emailed statement. “We conduct our business in Venezuela in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations.”

Continued oil exports from Venezuela are seen as helping soften the potential impact of Trump’s promised tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude, on hold until early March.

Trump on Tuesday criticized the Biden administration’s decision to enable oil development and exports from Venezuela, since the US is flush with its own crude resources. The US started buying billions of dollars of oil from Venezuela, Trump said, adding: “It gave them a new — really — lease on life.”

Instead of tapping America’s beautiful “liquid gold,” he said, the US under Biden “started paying a fortune to Venezuela. And we’re looking at that actually. Why did they do that? Why were they doing that? Why would they go to the enemy and give them billions and billions of dollars?”

Trump acknowledged Maduro’s decision to accept immigrants deported from the US despite previous vows to refuse them entry. Still, he said, “we’re looking at Venezuela very seriously.”


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-chevron-venezuela-oil-220731294.html

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Brazil joins Opec+ oil producers’ group

Brazil Opec

Brazil became the world’s seventh-largest oil producer after expanding its production capacity over the past decade.

  • Takes membership to 23
  • Not bound by cuts agreements
  • Also joins Irena and IEA

Brazil, the largest oil producer in South America, has officially joined the Opec+ group of more than 20 countries that attempts to manage global oil output.

The participation formalises an initial announcement in November 2023, a statement by Opec said.

Brazil’s membership will be limited to the Opec+ Charter of Cooperation, a permanent forum between oil-producing countries to discuss industry-related issues.

The country will not participate in decisions and will not be bound by obligations such as output cuts, said Alexandre Silveira, Brazil’s minister of mines and energy.

Opec+, created in 2016 to enhance control over oil supply and prices, is a coalition of the 12 members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia and including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE, and 11 non-Opec oil producing nations, led by Russia and including Oman, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Mexico and Malaysia.

Brazil became the world’s seventh-largest oil producer after expanding its production capacity over the past decade. From producing 2 million barrels per day of crude in 2013, in 2023 the country’s output reached 3.4 million bpd, or 4.32 million bpd of oil equivalent.

The Brazilian Petroleum Institute has predicted that Brazil’s oil production will reach 3.6 million bpd in 2025, a 6 percent increase, thanks to the enormous reservoirs called pre-salt fields up to 7km below the ocean off the Brazilian coast.

Brazil’s entry into Opec+ reflects a growing desire by emerging economies to exert more influence over global commodity prices.

The US Energy Information Administration expects world production to increase by 1.9 million bpd this year and 1.6 million bpd next year, driven by four countries in the Americas, the US, Guyana, Canada and Brazil.

Brazil has also decided to become a member of the International Renewable Energy Agency and the International Energy Agency, the government said on Tuesday.


https://www.agbi.com/oil-and-gas/2025/02/brazil-joins-opec-oil-producers-group/

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Uranium

Japan and IAEA to boost cooperation on Fukushima No. 1 decommissioning

Rafael Grossi (left), director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya at a joint news conference in Tokyo on Tuesday

Rafael Grossi (left), director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya at a joint news conference in Tokyo on Tuesday |  POOL / VIA JIJI.

Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), agreed on Tuesday to strengthen cooperation on the decommissioning and dismantling of the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant.

In their meeting at the State Guest House, Akasaka Palace, in Tokyo, Iwaya and Grossi discussed the work at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) Holdings plant and the release of tritium-tainted treated water from the facility into the ocean.

At a joint news conference after the meeting, Iwaya thanked the IAEA for its cooperation and said, "We will ensure safety with the involvement of the IAEA in order to safely release treated water until the 'last drop.'"

He also said that a decision has been made to contribute about €14 million to the IAEA for medical assistance and other purposes in Ukraine.

At a dinner party after the meeting, Iwaya and Grossi exchanged views on measures to ensure the safety of nuclear power plants in Ukraine, which has been invaded by Russia, and on nuclear nonproliferation.

Grossi arrived in Japan on Tuesday and visited Tepco's Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant in Niigata Prefecture for the first time. He referred to the importance of restarting the plant at an early date for the sake of Japan and Tepco.

During his stay in the country until Thursday, he is scheduled to participate in additional monitoring related to treated water from the Fukushima plant, which will also involve Chinese, South Korean and other research bodies.


https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/02/19/japan/foreign-minister-iaea-head-talks/

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Precious Metals

Tariff Threats Propel Gold Prices To All-Time High

By Alex Kimani - Feb 19, 2025, 11:30 AM CST

Gold prices soared to an all-time high on Wednesday after safe haven flows jumped amid U.S. President Donald Trump's growing tariff threats. Spot gold was quoted at $2,935.10 an ounce at 9.30 am ET after surging to an all-time-high of $2,946.85/oz earlier in the session. Gold prices have now hit a new high nine times so far in 2025.

"Gold's rally appears to be driven by President Trump's remarks on upcoming tariffs for autos and pharmaceuticals, which could pave the way for a push toward $3,000," Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse, told Reuters.

Gold continues to benefit from the broad uncertainty created by tariffs and the potentially inflationary pressures or implications of demand destruction. The Trump administration has announced 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel, a move likely to indirectly impact the auto industry and could depress sales. Gold not only plays an important role in portfolio diversification but can also be an effective hedge against uncertainties. Gold prices have surged since late 2022, with the commodity in high demand as a geopolitical hedge due to Russia’s war in Ukraine and also demand for an inflation hedge. Falling interest rates have also made the yellow metal attractive while a stronger dollar has added fire to the rally thanks to gold generally being dollar-denominated.

However, the physical gold market has shown signs of weakening as India’s market continues to trade at a discount. The latest trade data shows that gold shipments to India tumbled to 31 tons, good for a 46% month-over-month decline and the lowest since March 2024. Meanwhile, China’s market continues to toy with a discount. Preliminary data suggests net purchases have slowed, with Türkiye adding 5.4 tons in January and 0.6 tons in February so far.

Experts have, however, predicted that the gold price rally is likely to continue. Market focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance, with minutes of its January policy meeting due later on Tuesday, "Any bearish impact (on gold) from today's FOMC minutes release is expected to be short-lived," Vawda said.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Tariff-Threats-Propel-Gold-Prices-To-All-Time-High.html

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Base Metals

Freeport Copper Smelter to Resume Operations by June 2025, Says Minister Bahlil


TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia stated that PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) has committed to completing the construction of its new copper smelter facility by June 2025. This followed the fire incident at PTFI's copper smelter in Gresik, East Java in October 2024.

"Thank God, yesterday, we decided by compromise that the factory will be completed in June (2025). Freeport has submitted its statement, and reports from the police and insurance have also been available," he said when met at the Indonesia Economic Summit event in Jakarta on Wednesday, February 19, 2025.

In addition, Bahlil mentioned that the government will reissue the raw copper export permit for Freeport after it has stalled since last December. According to him, the decision is a solution from the limited meeting held by Prabowo earlier this week.

"Yesterday, we had a limited meeting led by Bapak President, and then we looked for a win-win alternative. The win-win is how to keep Freeport's production running," said Bahlil.

He explained that the reason the government allowed copper exports despite the previous restriction on raw copper exports is the declining income of Freeport. He mentioned that, in any case, 50 percent of Freeport's shares are owned by the state.

In other words, if Freeport's income decreases, then the state's revenue will also decrease. Not only that, he said there are thousands of employees who are potentially laid off if Freeport is unable to export.

Nevertheless, the government still imposes sanctions on Freeport for exporting copper even though its export quota had expired in 2024. "The sanction is an increase in the export tax. So they pay more to the country than before," said Bahlil.

Previously, based on the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 7 of 2023, the export permit for copper concentrate of PT Freeport Indonesia had expired on December 31, 2024. With this decision, they could no longer export raw copper materials this year.

However, at the same time, Freeport experienced a fire at their smelter. This made them unable to process or refine the concentrate. On the other hand, concentrate storage also experienced overcapacity while the permit had not yet been issued.

This condition forced Freeport to reduce their production and automatically reduce income, which had an impact on the state's revenue and the workers there. "If, for example, the stockpile is full, then production will automatically decrease," said ESDM Ministry's Director General of Minerals and Coal, Tri Winarno, at his office on Friday, February 14, 2025.

Dani Iswara contributed to the writing of this article.


https://en.tempo.co/read/1977495/freeport-copper-smelter-to-resume-operations-by-june-2025-says-minister-bahlil

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Steel

Italy increased steel production by 2.7% y/y in January

During the month, Italian steelmakers produced 1.69 million tons of steel

Italian metallurgical enterprises increased steel production by 2.7% in January 2025 compared to January 2024, to 1.69 million tons. This is reported by SteelOrbis with reference to data from the Italian Federation of Steelworkers Federacciai.

Compared to the previous month, production volumes increased by 40.9%, mainly due to a low comparison base.

Long products production in January amounted to 862 thousand tons, up 2.7% y/y, and flat products production amounted to 780 thousand tons (-1.9% y/y).

As GMK Center reported earlier, in 2024, Italy decreased steel production by 5% compared to 2023, to 20 million tons. In December 2024, Italian steelmakers reduced steel production by 8.8% compared to December 2023 and by 33.4% – to 1.199 million tons.

Long products production for the year amounted to 11.7 million tonnes, down 0.2% compared to 2023, and flat products production amounted to 8.6 million tonnes (-9.7% y/y). Thus, long products output experienced only a slight decline, supported by increased construction activity. At the same time, the weakness of the automotive sector and industry, as well as high volumes of competitive imports (5.58 million tons in January-October 2024), had a negative impact on flat products production.

Overall, steel production in the European Union increased by 2.6% in 2024 compared to 2023 – to 129.5 million tons. Global steel production for the year amounted to 1.84 billion tons, down 0.9% year-on-year.


https://gmk.center/en/news/italy-increased-steel-production-by-2-7-y-y-in-january/

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Tata Steel UK Gets Approval for Electric Arc Furnace Project in Port Talbot

Neath Port Talbot Council’s Planning Committee has granted approval for Tata Steel UK’s plans to develop modern Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking in Port Talbot.

Rajesh Nair, CEO of Tata Steel UK, described the approval as a significant milestone amid a challenging global market. He confirmed the company’s commitment to commence large-scale site work this summer, with the EAF set to begin operations by the end of 2027.

“The £1.25 billion investment marks the most substantial investment in the UK steel industry in decades. This facility will ensure high-quality steel production, preserve thousands of jobs, and safeguard steelmaking in Port Talbot for future generations,” Nair stated.

The project, supported by £500 million in UK Government funding, will help secure 5,000 Tata Steel UK jobs while reducing on-site CO2 emissions by 90% compared to previous blast furnace-based operations—equivalent to 1.5% of the UK’s total direct CO2 emissions.

Jonathan Reynolds, Secretary of Business and Trade, hailed the approval as a major step toward securing a sustainable future for steel production in South Wales. He emphasized that the agreement with Tata Steel, alongside the next phase of the UK’s Plan for Steel, will provide the stability needed to drive growth and attract investment.

“This decision ensures security for Port Talbot’s green steel transition and offers the certainty Welsh steelmaking needs to thrive,” Reynolds said.

Tata Steel UK has been actively preparing for the transition. In December, it signed a deal with JCB to supply green steel, and last month, it appointed Sir Robert McAlpine as the project’s main works contractor. Additionally, in October, the company selected Tenova, a global leader in metals technology, to supply the new furnace.

HBL


https://www.newsonprojects.com/news/tata-steel-uk-gets-approval-for-electric-arc-furnace-project-in-port-talbot

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India: Trade-level HRC offers decline marginally by up to INR 300/t w-o-w amid falling sales

India: Trade-level HRC offers decline marginally by up to INR 300/t w-o-w amid falling sales

  • Subdued demand leads to need-based procurement
  • Leading steelmaker may take maintenance shutdowns

Trade-level hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices across India edged down by up to INR 300/tonne (t) w-o-w to INR 47,300-49,700/t. Conversely, cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices witnessed mixed trends w-o-w, settling at INR 52,600-56,000/t ($617-671/t) across markets.

BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) declined marginally by INR 200/t w-o-w to INR 48,300/t ($549/t) on 19 February 2025. However, CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices increased by INR 300/t w-o-w to INR 55,100/t ($628/t). These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.


Market updates

Trade segment sees marginal price drop: The market experienced a downturn, characterised by reduced sales volumes and a shift towards need-based, minimal-quantity purchases. This forced suppliers to cut prices.

Additionally, there are rumours of planned maintenance shutdowns at Tata Steel's Kalinganagar, Meramandali, and Jamshedpur plants. Notably, the Jamshedpur facility is expected to undergo maintenance for an extended period.

"Demand in the trade market is severely depressed. Price elasticity is a critical factor, as sales are highly responsive to even minor adjustments in tags. The market is under considerable strain, and the absence of price support announcements from mills is compounding the current difficulties," said a market participant.

"We are concerned that continued adverse conditions may lead to increased import activity," he added.

Import trends: Imports of bulk HRCs and plates stood at 308,819 t till 17 February, as per vessel line-up data maintained with BigMint. It is expected that an additional 64,535 t will be imported by the month-end and 75,900 t in the first week of March.

Reports indicate that deals have been finalised for 2,000 t of HRCs at $530/t CFR Chennai and 30,000 t at $485-490/t CFR Mumbai.


Export offers show mixed trends: BigMint's India hot-rolled coil (HRC, SAE1006) export index for the Middle East (ME) and Vietnam remained stable w-o-w. However, export offers to Europe declined w-o-w due to ongoing anti-dumping probes.

Outlook

The market remains weak, and suppliers are implementing marginal price cuts amid subdued demand and minimal-quantity purchasing. However, Tata Steel's planned maintenance shutdowns may tighten supply, supporting prices. Hence, prices are expected to remain range-bound.


https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/india-trade-level-hrc-offers-decline-marginally-by-up-to-inr-300-t-w-o-w-amid-falling-sales-624277

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Consumption of steel products in Ukraine increased to 297 thousand tons in January

facebook.com

Imports account for more than 34.7% or 103 thousand tons

In January 2025, Ukraine increased consumption of steel products (rolled and semi-finished products) by 115.6% compared to January 2024, up to 297.1 thousand tons. This is evidenced by the data of Ukrmetprom.

During the month, 103 thousand tons of steel products were imported to Ukraine, up 27.1% compared to January 2024. Imports account for 34.1% of the domestic rolled steel consumption market in the country. The share of the import component in domestic consumption of steel products increased by 7.58 percentage points y/y.

The structure of imports is characterized by a significant dominance of flat products over long products – 86.5% and 10.8%, respectively. In January 2024, the dominance of flat products over long products was also significant – 83.9% and 15.2%, respectively.

In total, Ukrainian steelmakers produced 430.8 thousand tons of rolled products in the month, up 7.2% year-on-year. The company exported 286.1 thousand tons of steel products, down 28.5% y/y.

The domestic market received 194.1 thousand tons of rolled and semi-finished products, up 550% y/y. In January, Ukrainian steelmakers significantly increased shipments to the domestic market, with exports accounting for 59.6% of total output in the month, compared to 88.4% a year ago.

The share of flat products in export deliveries increased to 54.3%, up from 33.6% a year earlier. The share of long products in exports increased to 17.4% from 10.8%. At the same time, the share of semi-finished products fell to 28.2% from 55.6%.

The main export markets for Ukrainian rolled steel in January 2025, according to the State Customs Service, are the European Union (69.6%), the rest of Europe (12.4%) and Africa (7.7%). Among steel importers, the first place is occupied by other European countries (61.3%), followed by the EU (24.7%), and the third – by Asian countries (13.8%).

As GMK Center reported earlier, consumption of steel products in Ukraine in 2024 decreased by 6.26% year-on-year – to 3.288 million tons. Over the year, 1.235 million tons of steel products were imported, up 10.2% y/y, and about 4.17 million tons were exported, up 39.7% y/y. Domestic production amounted to 6.22 million tons (+15.8% y/y).


https://gmk.center/en/news/consumption-of-steel-products-in-ukraine-increased-to-297-thousand-tons-in-january/

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Double whammy of Chinese exports and Trump uncertainty binds long steel

The global long steel products market continues to be very difficult to operate in, according to Irepas, the international association for producers and exporters of rebar. Its latest short-term outlook expects the next quarter to be very unpredictable and unstable.

Irepas says the global long steel products market is under very strong pressure because of Chinese exports, exacerbated by the arrival of President Donald Trump in the White House bringing ‘uncertainty, volatility and a lack of visibility’.

‘It seems like the situation will get even worse until the dust settles and his goals are clearly understood. So far, Trump’s announcements have given rise to concerns about inflation, which will slow down interest rate cuts.’

Waiting game

Specifically, the outlook says the US market is awaiting the outcome of decisions already made by the White House and others under consideration or delayed for further negotiations.

‘New infrastructure projects are on hold, amid the government freeze on spending. Interest rates have not come down and there is no clear sign for the near future, thus delaying many projects and also purchases by would-be home buyers. Labour shortages in the construction sector are becoming a near certainty, causing delays and higher costs for construction developments.’

Meanwhile, the outlook believes the industry must await China’s policy in the year ahead, asking whether it steel exports will continue to exceed 100 million tonnes or slow down to help stabilise the global market.

EU demand low

In Europe, theEU steel market is reported to be suffering from continuing low demand for long products, with European mills locked in a cycle of poor demand and high costs. Meanwhile, energy prices in Europe are back up at levels not seen since 2022.

Higher costs will force long steel producers in the EU to increase prices and to shut down more capacities in 2025, Irepas maintains. The EU’s import quota for ‘all other countries’ was exhausted early at the start of the year, with large volumes imported by Bulgaria and Romania. This means there will be no more imports from such countries.

Mills in the long steel products market are being forced to lower their capacity utilisation rates, which will negatively affect their cost of production. The outlook warns of a chain reaction of displaced export capacities due to Chinese exports.

In conclusion, Irepas says: ‘Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable and very difficult to operate in. The outlook for the next quarter is very unpredictable and unstable.’


https://recyclinginternational.com/commodities/double-whammy-of-chinese-exports-and-trump-uncertainty-binds-long-steel/59828/

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Iron Ore

The EU imported 13.97 million tons of iron ore from Ukraine in 2024

shutterstock

The key importers of raw materials are Poland and Slovakia

In 2024, steelmakers in the European Union increased imports of iron ore from Ukraine by 4.2% compared to 2023, to 13.969 million tons. This is evidenced by GMK Center’s calculations based on Eurostat data.

The key importers of raw materials of Ukrainian origin are Poland – 4.79 million tons, up 42.2% compared to 2023, Slovakia – 4.67 million tons (-7.1% y/y), and the Czech Republic – 2.79 million tons (-28.4% y/y). In 2024, the Netherlands increased its imports of iron ore from Ukraine by 84.2% y/y – to 660.11 thousand tons.

In December 2024, the EU imported 1.09 million tons of iron ore, up 3.7% compared to December 2023 and 26.3% more than in December 2023. Poland consumed 384.93 thousand tons over the month (+98.7% y/y, +13.6% m/m), Slovakia – 468.59 thousand tons (+10.7% y/y, +86.6% m/m), Czech Republic – 235.91 thousand tons (+10.9% y/y, +42.8% m/m).

In total, the EU imported 74.93 million tons of iron ore from third countries in 2024, up 2.6% compared to 2023. In December, these volumes amounted to 5.18 million tons, which is 1.7% less than in December 2023 and 3.6% less than in the previous month. The largest importer is the Netherlands – 26.59 million tons (+16.5% y/y).

As GMK Center reported earlier, in 2023, the EU increased its imports of iron ore from Ukraine by 3.7% compared to 2022, up to 13.4 million tons. In total, European consumers imported 72.75 million tons of ore from third countries, down 11% y/y. Ukraine accounted for more than 18% of the total imports of iron ore to the EU.

https://gmk.center/en/news/the-eu-imported-13-97-million-tons-of-iron-ore-from-ukraine-in-2024/

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