Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Thursday 05 February 2026
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Featured

Ivanhoe in Talks to Send Congo Zinc to U.S. Market Under Project Vault

Ivanhoe Mines IVN-T is in advanced talks with Congo’s state miner Gecamines and Swiss commodities trader Mercuria to channel zinc-rich concentrate from its giant Kipushi mine to the United States under Washington’s new strategic stockpiling scheme Project Vault, the company said.

The arrangement forms part of a wider deal between the U.S. and the Democratic Republic of Congo on minerals, as Washington ramps up its fight with China for control of Africa’s vast deposits.

Project Vault – a US$12-billion supply-chain security program launched on Monday by the U.S. and backed by US$1.67-billion in private capital and a US$10-billion U.S. Export-Import Bank loan – aims to secure long-term supplies of strategic metals globally.

It is a key pillar of President Donald Trump’s drive to reduce reliance on China by locking in Western access to vital inputs for defence, clean energy and advanced manufacturing.

Ivanhoe’s Kipushi zinc mine is forecast to produce 240,000–290,000 metric tons of concentrate this year, including significant quantities of germanium and gallium – minerals the U.S. deems critical for semiconductors, defence and clean-tech applications.

A deal with Ivanhoe would see Mercuria assign its existing offtake for Kipushi concentrate to Gecamines’ trading arm, while also marketing additional volumes expected from the mine’s ramp-up in late 2025, Ivanhoe said on Monday.

Gecamines could ultimately handle up to half of Kipushi’s output, including shipments to the United States, Ivanhoe said.

Gecamines confirmed the partnership in a separate statement on Tuesday, saying it was backed by a December, 2025, deal with Mercuria that provides financing and logistics to activate its offtake rights.

It said the arrangement is the first step in a plan to expand into processing zinc, copper, germanium and gallium, with the goal of becoming Kipushi’s sole buyer.

Glencore and U.S.-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium (Orion CMC) have announced a similar arrangement to channel cobalt and copper from Congo into the U.S. supply chain under the same government-backed program – a sign of accelerating competition among Western buyers for Congolese minerals.

Kipushi, which hosts ultra high-grade zinc as well as silver, copper, germanium and gallium, is one of Congo’s largest polymetallic deposits.


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/article-ivanhoe-in-talks-to-send-congo-zinc-to-us-market-under-project-vault/

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Macro

South Africa: R.A.F.’s MASSIVE DEBTS MOUNT - The Gibbons Report: 4 February 2026

The Gibbons Report: 4 February 2026

This article may contain graphic and/or adult content unsuitable for minors and sensitive readers.

R.A.F.’s MASSIVE DEBTS MOUNT

The Road Accident Fund is facing a staggering R100 billion in unpaid claims.

That’s according to the chair of its new board, Kenneth Brown, testifying to Parliament’s Standing Committee on Public Accounts.

Quoted by Currency News, Brown revealed that the RAF collected just over R50 billion from the fuel levy last year.

Treasury has set the RAF’s contingent liabilities as rising to R423 billion by 2027.

Brown was unable to tell SCOPA how the RAF’s massive problems would be fixed.

IS RAND UNDERVALUED?

Is South Africa’s rand still undervalued at its current levels?

That question – despite the rand’s 3% gains so far this year and 14% or so last year - was posed by Bloomberg to a panel of investors and economists. Their answer, in broad terms, is yes.

They say they see scope for further currency appreciation as the government’s reform programme boosts economic growth.

According to the Bloomberg survey, 14 respondents considered an exchange rate of R15.64 to the US dollar fair value. Half of them saw the currency as undervalued, three said it was close to fair value, and four thought it was overvalued.

The rand this morning?

R15.94 to the dollar, R18.85 to the euro and R21.84 to the sterling.

The US$ itself is worth $1.18 to the euro.

GOLD, PLATINUM BOUNCE BACK

Precious metals have bounced back in the wake of the big sell-off at the end of last week and the start of this.

One beneficiary – and we’re clearly going to see quite a few more of them when the figures come through – is Impala Platinum, which says second-half profit likely jumped by about 400% from a year earlier.

Implats told the market it expects earnings between R9.1 billion and R9.45 billion.

This, says Implats, follows a significant appreciation in the average price received for the firm’s products.

Valterra Platinum – formerly Anglo Platinum – has already told the market it expects a 125% increase in profits.

Gold this morning is back above $5,000 an ounce - $5,064 – platinum $2,278.

MARKETS: J.S.E. RECOVERS

No surprise then that the JSE has also staged something of a recovery – the All Share and Top 40 were both up 1.4% last evening at the close – 120.516 and 112,442 respectively.

London’s FTSE was down 0.3%, while on Wall Street the Dow was down 0.3%; the S&P 500 was down 0.8%, and the Nasdaq was down 1.4%.

Tokyo and Hong Kong are both down 0.6% this morning; Sydney is up 0.6%.

Finally, Bitcoin continues to sag – now down to $76,700 – and Brent Crude oil – back up to just under $68 per barrel.


https://www.algoafm.co.za/business/the-gibbons-report-4-february-2026

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Glencore-Rio Tinto Megamerger ‘Hangs in the Balance’ as Deadline Looms

Rio Tinto is pushing for its chair and chief executive to keep their roles following any merger with rival Glencore as significant differences remain between the two sides ahead of a deadline to strike their $260bn deal.

Crunch talks to create the world’s biggest miner are continuing in the eleventh hour before the “put up or shut up” deadline on Thursday, by which point Rio must signal its firm intent to make an offer for Glencore or walk away unless both sides agree to extent.

For its part, Glencore is holding out for a steep premium, according to people close to the talks. The talks are expected to be extended beyond Thursday’s deadline, the people said, but one added that the differences between the two sides mean the deal hangs in the balance.

The two miners remain far apart on valuation and governance issues, according to people close to the negotiations, raising questions about whether the differences can be bridged. Both Rio and Glencore declined to comment on the merger talks.

Talks between the companies over the potential megadeal have been on and off again over the past 18 months, but were revived late last year after Rio’s new CEO, Simon Trott, took the helm. Dominic Barton has chaired the company since 2022.

Rio, which generates most of its profit from selling iron ore, wants to grow its copper portfolio. Buying Glencore, which is the world’s sixth-largest copper miner and has plans to grow further, would be one way to do so. 

The two sides have gathered over the past week for crunch talks in Zurich but remain at an impasse. 

One sticking point is valuation, as big changes in commodity prices over the past two years have shifted the relative valuations of the companies. Glencore’s share price has suffered owing to low coal prices, while Rio’s has been boosted by rising prices for copper and iron ore over the past six months.

Glencore’s position has been somewhat strengthened in recent days, after it announced a nonbinding deal to sell a 40 per cent stake in its huge copper-cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo to Orion Critical Minerals Consortium, an investment group backed by the US government. The conditional deal implies an enterprise value of $9bn for the assets, far higher than what most analysts had expected. 

Glencore’s large position in the DR Congo, where it is the biggest western mining company operating, had previously been viewed as a risk that Rio was hesitant to take on.

Analyst Ben Davis at RBC estimates that a deal could occur at around a 28 per cent premium to Glencore’s undisturbed share price, implying a bid price of around 582p per share. Glencore shares closed in London trading on Wednesday at 511p, with a market capitalisation of £60bn.

“I think the deal absolutely still makes sense, as a strategic opportunity for Rio to secure copper options,” said Davis. “It gets trickier to stack it up, if the valuation remains high, but certainly I can see the motivation from both parties for getting a deal done.”

Rio-Glencore talks highlight ‘bigger is better’ mining mantra for Glencore, which went public in 2011 at a price of 530p, it hopes to achieve a price that is at least at that level, if not higher.

In recent days, new documents released by the US Department of Justice relating to Jeffrey Epstein show that Lord Peter Mandelson, the Labour politician, corresponded with Glencore’s former chief executive Ivan Glasenberg in June 2010 about whether Mandelson might become chair of the company ahead of its public listing. Labour had lost the general election a month earlier.

Mandelson — who faces a police investigation over allegations of misconduct in public office and quit the House of Lords this week over the Epstein scandal — was never appointed to the role however; and businessman Simon Murray became Glencore’s chair in early 2011.

Glencore declined to comment on the correspondence.


https://www.ft.com/content/b54a2f71-4923-4150-bcb7-7f3e583ec845

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Europe’s Chemical Industry is Collapsing Under Energy Costs and Regulation

By Irina Slav - Feb 04, 2026, 6:00 PM CST

  • Investment in Europe’s chemicals sector has collapsed while capacity closures and job losses accelerate.
  • High energy prices and stringent climate regulations are eroding competitiveness against China and the U.S.
  • The decline of chemicals threatens downstream industries, including automotive and defense manufacturing.

Investments in the European chemicals industry are dropping off a cliff, capacity shutdowns topped 5 million tons last year, and investors are leaving for greener pastures as the EU chokes the industry with regulations. Energy costs remain too high for anyone’s comfort. Europe is facing yet another massive import dependence.

Investments in the chemicals industry in Europe last year took an 80% plunge, the Financial Times reported last month, citing data from the European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic). The industry group warned that capacity closures across the EU had surged sixfold since 2022 and had reached a total of 37 million tons as of 2025, which represents 9% of total capacity. The closures resulted in 20,000 job cuts and were accompanied by a slump in new investments that brought the industry closer to a breaking point.

“It’s no longer a question of being five minutes before or after twelve,” the head of Cefic, Marco Mensink, said. “The sector is under severe stress and breaking. The rate of closures has doubled in a year, and even worse, annual investments are half and close to zero. On both sides, the speed is accelerating, not slowing. We need decisive action this year, with impact at factory floor level.”

The chemicals industry is one of the biggest in Europe and an essential supplier of goods and materials to a host of other essential industries for the continent in general, and the EU specifically. The industry booked sales of over 600 billion euros for 2024, according to the latest figures released by Cefic. That sounds healthy, but in terms of market share, Europe’s chemicals companies have seen their weight on the global market shrink from over 27% back in 2004 to just 12.6% as of 2024.

Of course, the accelerated shrinkage of the European chemicals industry did not just coincide with the EU sanctions on Russia and the loss of cheap pipeline gas from the East. Cheap energy inputs—and gas specifically—are essential for the competitiveness of an industry, which uses petroleum feedstocks for most of its output, notably natural gas, and that’s in addition to its substantial energy needs.

Sky-high energy costs are pummeling every single European industry, but the more energy-intensive among them are suffering proportionally severe pain. Then there are all the climate-related regulations that the European Union leadership has been piling on businesses based in the bloc as it repeatedly signals its priority number one is not competitiveness but emission reduction at all costs.

That said, the cost of that emission reduction is starting to be recognised as possibly too high, with top EU officials declaring they will be prioritising competitiveness along with emissions. It was on competitiveness grounds that the Commission devised the carbon border adjustment mechanism, or CBAM, for short, to tax cheaper imports of goods produced in places with laxer emission regulations and abundant, cheap power from gas and coal. The biggest such place, of course, is China, and China is eating up European chemical makers’ global market share, fast.

The Wall Street Journal noted the Chinese competition in a recent article about Europe’s chemical woes, pointing out that in some cases, Chinese companies were building more capacity than there is demand for, such as in monoethylene glycol, a component of polyester. This capacity, even if not utilised at 100%, adds pressure on high-cost European producers, who now also have to contend with low-cost U.S. competition following the trade deal that President Trump and the European Commission’s head, Ursula von der Leyen, signed last year. 

The WSJ paints a picture as grim as the one painted by the Financial Times. Saudi SABIC has divested its assets in Europe. Dow plans to close several plants in Germany, saying it had to because oh high energy costs, high CO2 emission costs, and weak demand. Exxon is reportedly looking to do the same as SABIC did, and exit the European chemicals sector altogether. Two chemical producers, the WSJ noted in its report, recently filed for insolvency for several of their subsidiaries. 

The European chemicals industry is struggling. This is a big enough problem even if the industry was the self-contained kind. But there is no such industry, and chemicals are essential for other sectors, notably car manufacturing and the EU’s new favourite industry: defense.

“If you want a defence sector... an automotive sector, it’s totally dependent on chemicals supplying the materials. This is simply a chokehold the rest of the world has on Europe,” Cefic’s Marco Mensink said, as quoted by the FT. He proceeded to call chemicals “the mother of all industries” and warned that “it’s breaking down as we speak.”

The problems look insurmountable unless there is a complete reversal of priorities for the decision-makers in political circles. Nothing short of removing emission reduction from the number-one spot would give the chemicals sector in Europe the chance it needs increasingly desperately.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europes-Chemical-Industry-Is-Collapsing-Under-Energy-Costs-and-Regulation.html

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Oil and Gas

Russia’s Oil Revenue Plummets to Five-Year Low in January

Investing.com -- Russian oil revenues fell to their lowest level in more than five years in January, as the nation faced a triple challenge of lower global prices, deeper discounts, and a stronger ruble.

Oil-related tax income dropped by half to 281.7 billion rubles ($3.7 billion) compared to January 2025. The combined revenue from oil and gas sectors also declined by 50% to 393.3 billion rubles.

These two industries contribute approximately roughly a quarter of Russia’s budget.

Brent oil futures were 15% lower year-on-year for the fiscal period, but the impact on Russia was magnified by U.S. sanctions. January’s oil revenue marked the lowest point since June 2020.

Russia’s flagship Urals crude traded at approximately $26 per barrel below Dated Brent at export points. This discount has more than doubled from about $12 below the benchmark a year earlier, according to data from Argus Media.

The widening price gap followed the U.S. blacklisting of Russia’s two largest producers, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, which was announced in October.

Russia’s finance ministry calculated oil revenue based on Urals averaging $39.18 per barrel in December, representing a 38% drop from the previous year. This figure falls significantly below the government’s budgetary assumption of $59 per barrel for 2026.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-oil-revenue-plummets-five-153349324.html

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Alternative Energy

India Energy Week 2026 Honours Innovation and Leadership

India Energy Week 2026 Honours Innovation and Leadership

India Energy Week 2026 recently concluded in Goa, celebrating innovators, startups and industry leaders shaping the country’s energy future. Held from 27–30 January 2026, the flagship conclave highlighted India’s growing role in the global energy ecosystem while bringing together policymakers, businesses, innovators and investors to advance secure, affordable and sustainable energy solutions.

Under the AVINYA – The Energy Startup Challenge, Minimines Cleantech Solutions was named winner for its proprietary HHM process enabling low-carbon recovery of high-value materials from end-of-life lithium-ion batteries. Ossus Biorenewables secured first runner-up for converting industrial wastewater into green hydrogen, followed by Tranzmeo IT Solutions for AI-based fibre sensing, Rezlytix Technologies for AI-driven exploration analytics, and Petrobot Technologies for robotic inspection solutions in hydrocarbon facilities.

The VASUDHA – Overseas Upstream Startup Challenge recognised global innovation, with SENERGETICS winning for AI-driven corrosion monitoring, while Resermine Inc, USA, was named runner-up for its hybrid model engine optimising reservoir engineering workflows.

In the Hackathon Challenge, IIT Bombay won for ‘Aura’, an AI-enabled unified reservoir analysis platform, while IIT Delhi was runner-up for a circular economy solution focused on CO? capture and mineralisation using steel industry slag.

Industry excellence was recognised through the FIPI / IIP Annual Industry Awards. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation was named Exploration Company of the Year, while Oil India received Oil & Gas Production Company of the Year (Over 1 MTOE). Reliance Industries Jamnagar SEZ Refinery was awarded Refinery of the Year. Innovation honours went jointly to Indian Oil Corporation Limited’s R&D Division and Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Limited’s Innovation Centre.

India Energy Week 2026 concluded by underscoring India’s expanding energy leadership, its focus on sustainability and innovation, and its role in shaping the future of the global energy landscape.


https://www.constructionworld.in/energy-infrastructure/power-and-renewable-energy/india-energy-week-2026-honours-innovation-and-leadership/85539

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As Solar and Wind Boom to Record Levels, are we Ignoring the Power of Geothermal Energy?

Geothermal systems that harness heat from deep underground require significantly less land infrastructure than other renewable energies.

New technologies originally designed to extract oil and gas from deep underground could help “open the doors” to a fossil fuel-free future thanks to enhanced geothermal systems (EGS).

A new study from Stanford University, published in Cell Reports Sustainability, found that EGS can “significantly reduce” the amount of wind, solar, and battery infrastructure needed for a clean energy transition while keeping electricity prices competitive.

“ESG is a promising clean, renewable technology that works together with wind, solar, hydro and batteries to help power the world for all purposes,” says lead-author of the study Mark Jacobson. “[This] provides energy security while eliminating energy-related air pollution and global warming at low costs.”

How do enhanced geothermal systems work?

Unlike conventional geothermal plants that are limited to volcanic and tectonic-plate-boundary regions (such as Iceland), EGS involves drilling up to eight kilometres deep, injecting fluid into cracked rocks, then pumping the heated fluid back up to generate electricity.

Researchers compared scenarios with and without EGS and found that adding EGS to the renewable energy mix produces "substantial infrastructure savings”.

When EGS provided just 10 per cent of electricity supply, onshore wind capacity needs decreased by 15 per cent, solar capacity dropped by 12 per cent, and battery storage requirements plummeted by 28 per cent.

Total land requirements also fell from 0.57 per cent to 0.48 per cent of the countries’ combined land area. Researchers say this could be appealing for small or densely populated nations such as Taiwan and South Korea.

The study also found that clean, renewable energy dramatically reduces costs whether or not EGS is included. Both scenarios slashed annual energy costs by around 60 per cent compared with “business-as-usual fossil fuel use”.

“When health and climate costs, such as air pollution-related illnesses and sea level rise, are factored in, total social costs plummet by approximately 90 per cent,” the study says.

Because EGS provides constant electricity, experts argue it could be useful for providing electricity to off-grid data centres, which are booming in popularity across the world due to artificial intelligence (AI).

Will EGS become cheaper?

Costs have long been a barrier to the expansion of EGS, but experts predict that they could drop significantly by 2035.

Jacobson attributes this to improvements in drilling speeds, adding: “These speeds allow EGS projects to be completed quickly, unlike nuclear, which requires planting-to-operation times of 12 to 23 years worldwide.

“Also, unlike nuclear, EGS has no risk of weapons proliferation, meltdown, radioactive waste storage leaks, or underground uranium mining.”


https://www.euronews.com/green/2026/02/03/as-solar-and-wind-boom-to-record-levels-are-we-ignoring-the-power-of-geothermal-energy

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India Doubles Down on Exploration, Mining of Rare Earths

New Delhi, Feb 4 (IANS) The Atomic Minerals Directorate for Exploration and Research (AMD), a constituent unit of DAE, is carrying out exploration and augmentation of minerals of rare earth group elements along the coastal and inland placer sands as well as in hard rock terrains in several potential geological domains of the country, informed the government.

As on January 28, 2026 the rare earth minerals resources estimated by AMD include 136 deposits of Beach Sand Minerals containing 13.15 million tonnes (Mt) of monazite (a mineral of Thorium and Rare Earths) occurring in the coastal beach, teri/red sands and inland alluvium in parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Jharkhand and West Bengal.

These deposits contain approximately 7.23 Mt in-situ Rare Earth Oxide (eq.) resources, said Minister of Coal and Mines, G. Kishan Reddy, in a written reply in the Rajya Sabha.

Also, three deposits of rare-earth minerals in hard rocks in parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat containing 1.29 Mt in-situ Rare Earth Oxide (eq.) resources have been estimated.

According to the minister, the rare earth (RE) bearing ore, Monazite, is a prescribed substance due to its association with radioactive elements — uranium and thorium — and, therefore, mining, processing and refining is kept under government control.

India is one among three to four countries globally having capacity and capability in terms of Plant, technology and skilled work force in RE sector.

Indian resources are significantly lean with respect to grade and tied with radioactive elements making the extraction long, complex and expensive.

Further, Indian resource predominantly contain light rare earth elements.

While India has adequate rare-earth resources and capabilities for extraction and refining, commercial mining and processing of these minerals has been limited due to lack of adequate technology, absence of mid-stream and downstream industries in the REE value chain.

In November last year, the Union Cabinet has approved “Scheme to Promote Manufacturing of Sintered Rare Earth Permanent Magnets” with a financial outlay of Rs. 7,280 crore to establish 6,000 Metric Tons per Annum (MTPA) of integrated Rare Earth Permanent Magnet (REPM) manufacturing in India.

—IANS


https://ianslive.in/india-doubles-down-on-exploration-mining-of-rare-earths--20260204090959

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Agriculture

Chicago Grains Drift Lower With Dollar and Weather in Focus

PARIS/BEIJING, Feb. 4 (Reuters) - Chicago grain and soybean futures edged lower on Wednesday, curbed by a firm dollar as traders assessed weather risks and geopolitical tensions, analysts said.

Soyoil, however, held steady after a day-earlier rally supported by updated U.S. government guidance on tax credits for biofuel, a major source of demand for soyoil.

Ample global supply continued to cap grain prices as traders started to look ahead to world crop forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture next Tuesday for fresh direction.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was down 0.6% at $5.25-3/4 a bushel by 1214 GMT.

CBOT corn was 0.4% lower at $4.27, while CBOT soybeans eased 0.3% to $10.62-1/2 a bushel.

The dollar index <=USD> rose on Wednesday, making U.S. crops more expensive internationally. [FRX/]

Volatility in the dollar, which hit a four-year low last week before rebounding following Friday's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, has weighed on grain and wider commodity markets.

Uncertainty over Washington's stance towards Iran ahead of scheduled talks on Friday has also buffetted crude oil prices.

"It remains difficult for agricultural commodity prices in Chicago to take a clear direction," Argus Media analysts said.

"Debates around the U.S. position toward Iran and the appointment of Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve continue to influence oil and the dollar index."

Soybean by-product soyoil ticked up 0.1% to hold on to Tuesday's 2.4% gain.

The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday released updated guidance on biofuel tax credits, a move welcomed by traders as giving clarity to biofuel producers.

The news also supported corn, widely used to produce ethanol fuel. Soyoil is among feedstocks used for biodiesel.

Trader were monitoring winter cold in northern hemisphere wheat belts.

While snow cover was expected to limit damage in U.S., Ukrainian and Russian plains, a prolonged period of severe cold in the Black Sea region was nonetheless sustaining some market concern, according to traders.

(Reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair and Chizu Nomiyama)


https://www.agriculture.com/partners-chicago-grains-drift-lower-with-dollar-and-weather-in-focus-11899226

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Base Metals

Antofagasta Share Price Today: ANTO Steadies after Morgan Stanley Downgrade as Copper Cools

Antofagasta share price today: ANTO steadies after Morgan Stanley downgrade as copper cools

London, Feb 4, 2026, 09:30 GMT

Antofagasta plc shares on the London Stock Exchange (ANTO.L) were down 0.1% at 3,866 pence by 0930 GMT on Wednesday, steady after a sharp rise in the previous session. Copper futures were about 0.2% lower.

The Chile-focused miner has become a quick read-through for metal-price swings this week, and for how much risk investors still want in the UK mining trade. A broker downgrade landed on Tuesday, but the tape hasn’t followed a straight line.

Morgan Stanley cut Antofagasta to “underweight” from “equalweight” and trimmed its price target to 3,050 pence from 3,070, arguing the valuation premium had pushed to historical highs and skewed the risk-reward. In the same note, it said it was turning “more cautious on the pure plays” as it sees scope for rotation toward peers with “superior growth optionality” over the next 12–18 months.

Antofagasta shares rose 6.26% on Tuesday to end at 3,868 pence, according to Investing.com data, shrugging off the downgrade as the broader mining complex caught a bid.

Mining stocks helped offset a broader UK equity pullback on Tuesday as copper and gold rebounded; Rio Tinto ended up 3.4% and Anglo American gained 7.2%, Reuters reported. “Risk appetite just isn’t fully restored after the metals volatility we’ve seen since last week,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

But the metal tape has been jumpy. LME copper fell 4% on Monday as commodities slid after Kevin Warsh was picked as the next U.S. Fed chair and CME Group raised margin requirements — the cash traders must post to keep futures positions — which can force some investors to cut exposure. “A stronger U.S. dollar is also adding pressure on … including oil and base metals,” said Vivek Dhar, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia; analysts also flagged sluggish demand ahead of China’s Lunar New Year break, which starts on Feb. 15.

In London, attention turns to the Bank of England on Thursday, where it is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75%. “The timing of those rate cuts, however, is coming increasingly into question,” Deutsche Bank chief UK economist Sanjay Raja said.

For Antofagasta, the next company milestone is its full-year 2025 results on Feb. 17, with investors looking for updates on costs, capital spending and shareholder payouts.


https://ts2.tech/en/antofagasta-share-price-today-anto-steadies-after-morgan-stanley-downgrade-as-copper-cools/

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China’s Naipu Sinks After Halting Acquisition of Stake in Colombia’s Alacrán Mining Project

China’s Naipu Sinks After Halting Acquisition of Stake in Colombia’s Alacrán Mining Project

(Yicai) Feb. 4 -- Shares of Naipu Mining Machinery plunged after the Chinese supplier of mining equipment withdrew from the acquisition of a stake in CMH Colombia, which owns the development rights to Colombia’s Alacrán copper-gold-silver mine.

Naipu [SHE: 300818] closed down 17 percent at CNY40.86 (USD5.89) in Shenzhen today.

Naipu will not complete the acquisition of a stake in CMH Colombia, a joint venture between Canada’s Cordoba Minerals and China’s JCHX Mining Management, because Cordoba Minerals demanded adjustments to the acquisition payment terms, Colombia’s Autoridad Nacionál de Licencias Ambientales had not yet approved the transaction, and rising global geopolitical risks, the firm announced yesterday.

In May last year, JCHX announced it would buy the other half of CMH it did not yet own through its Swiss subsidiary Veritas Resources for USD108 million to USD128 million, based on copper prices on the London Metal Exchange at the specific time of acquisition. To fund the move, Veritas would issue new shares to Naipu and two other investors.

Veritas was expected to begin developing the Alacrán copper-gold-silver mine once the deal was completed. That included building facilities for the production of copper concentrate and gold-silver concentrate, with an expected construction period of two years and an estimated mining life of 14.2 years.

The total investment amount for the development of the Alacrán project was USD420.4 million, which was expected to be shared by the shareholders of Veritas in proportion to their holdings, according to JCHX’s initial plan.

Back in May last year, Naipu said that it would invest up to USD51.3 million to become the second-largest shareholder of Veritas, with a nearly 23 percent stake.

The Alacrán copper-gold-silver mine is an open-pit mine. In its life cycle, it is expected to recover a total of 797 million pounds of copper, 550,000 ounces of gold, and 5.35 million ounces, according to the project feasibility report provided by JCHX.

JCHX has not yet unveiled the extent of the impact Naipu’s withdrawal will have on its acquisition plan. Its stock [SHA: 603979] dropped 0.5 percent to CNY75.33 in Shanghai today.

Editor: Futura Costaglione


https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-naipu-sinks-after-halting-acquisition-of-stake-in-colombias-alacrn-mining-project

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Hercules Metals Drills 2.17% Copper Over 46 Metres At Leviathan Discovery

Hercules Metals (TSXV: BIG) has released further assay results from their Leviathan porphyry copper discovery at their flagship Hercules Project. A total of three drill holes conducted in 2025 saw assays released this morning, characterized by the continued intersection of copper and silver mineralization.

Highlights from the results include:

  • HER-25-15: 0.60% copper, 6.0 g/t silver, 65 ppm molybdenum over 420.62 metres from a depth of 300.23 metres Including 1.38% copper, 14 g/t silver, 40 ppm molybdenum over 112.78 metres
  • HER-25-17: 0.39% copper, 2.1 g/t silver, 49 ppm molybdenum over 585.22 metres from a depth of 321.56 metres Including 2.17% copper, 16 g/t silver, 65 ppm molybdenum over 46.03 metres Including 12.52% copper, 11.3 g/t silver, 80 ppm molybdenum over 6.1 metres
  • HER-25-19: 0.31% copper, 4.1 g/t silver, 58 ppm molybdenum over 164.9 metres from a depth of 168.86 metres Including 0.54% copper, 7.1 g/t silver, 56 ppm molybdenum over 41.45 metres

“Given the scale of the mineral system that has been defined so far, and the multiple conductive centers that have been identified along trend, we estimate that drilling to date has tested less than 20% of the overall target area at Hercules,” commented Dillon Hume, VP of Exploration for Hercules Metals.

Geophysics conducted at Leviathan meanwhile have identified a total of five conductive centers that are to be tested over the course of the 2026 drill season. One of those conductive centers occurs at the northern end of the footwall zone, with HER-25-17 intersecting the anomaly.

Drilling meanwhile is set to recommence in 2026 upon final assays from the 2025 program being received. A contract has been signed with Dorado Drilling USA for the program, although few details were provided on the planned program.

Hercules Metals last traded at $0.75 on the TSX Venture.

Information for this briefing was found via the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.


https://thedeepdive.ca/hercules-metals-drills-2-17-copper-over-46-metres-at-leviathan-discovery/

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Steel

U.S. Crude Steel Production Increased by 3.4% as Yearly in the Week Ending January 31

Ivanhoe in Talks to Send Congo Zinc to U.S. Market Under Project Vault

According to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), U.S. crude steel production totaled 1,758,000 net tons in the week in question. In the same period last year, production stood at 1,700,000 net tons. The capacity utilization rate was recorded at 76.0% this year, compared with 76.3% a year earlier.

Production declined compared with the previous week ending January 24, 2026. Output, which was 1,778,000 net tons in the week ending January 24, decreased by 1.1% to 1,758,000 net tons in the week ending January 31. During the same period, the capacity utilization rate decreased from 76.9% to 76.0%.

As of January 31, 2026, adjusted year-to-date U.S. crude steel production reached 7,774,000 net tons. This represents a 3.4% increase compared with 7,518,000 net tons produced in the same period last year. Year-to-date capacity utilization averaged 76.0%, versus 76.3% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

According to AISI data, regional U.S. crude steel production for the week ending January 31, 2026 amounted to 119,000 net tons in the Northeast, 518,000 net tons in the Great Lakes region, 257,000 net tons in the Midwest, 799,000 net tons in the South, and 65,000 net tons in the West, bringing total weekly production to 1,758,000 net tons.


https://www.steelradar.com/en/haber/us-crude-steel-production-increased-by-34-as-yearly-in-the-week-ending-january-31/

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